College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 4 2026

Last week was a disaster for my futures. The biggest losses were on South Carolina (their playoff odds are down to 3% after the loss). We had losses elsewhere on NC State (thanks, CJ Bailey), LSU, Stanford and Virginia.

New Bets

Penn State to make the Playoff +210 (1 unit)

The odds of a 9-3 team in the playoff have gone up a lot in the last week for two reasons. First, the lower middle class of the SEC (Mississippi State, Kentucky etc.) looks unexpectedly strong, which means the league’s playoff contenders will pick up some extra losses to them. Second, Texas A&M, Oregon, Oklahoma etc. have taken questionable losses.

This is great news for a team like Penn State, who has an easy schedule. I was bearish on the chances for a 10-2 Penn State to make the playoff in the preseason, but we simply may not have any other options but to put them in with how murky the playoff picture is looking. Penn State has played 3 nobodies but is 3-0 ATS and has thus moved up a bit in my ratings.

Florida to make the Playoff +245 (1 unit)

Tennessee to make the Playoff +230 (1 unit)

Florida is 11th in my ratings and 3-0. Tennessee is 13th and also 3-0. Despite this, their odds to make the playoff are +245 and +230 respectively. I don’t really get that- it puts them in the same range as Alabama and Ole Miss, but with much worse playoff odds. It’s not like my model is anomalously high on the Gators or the Volunteers either- they’re 15th and 10th in SP+, respectively.

Both teams will be locks at 10-2 and will be in the discussion for the last spot or two at 9-3. Big games await for both this weekend, against Ole Miss and Texas respectively.

Texas to miss the Playoff +330 (1 unit)

I did 2 units here at +150 in the preseason and will toss on another here. Texas is about where they started the year in the computers- 4th in mine, 6th in SP+. Obviously they’ve banked a win over Ohio State that will look great on the resume, but my computer doesn’t give them much credit for being a fellow top 5 team by a point at home. The schedule is brutal, they still play 6 of my model’s top 15 teams with 4 of them away from home. As crazy as it sounds, it is not that hard to go 2-4 in those games.

UCLA to make the Playoff +1500 (1 unit)

I’m in on UCLA. The Bruins are running the ball for nearly 8 yards a carry through 3 games. They’re not asking Nico Iamaleava to throw the ball much, but that’s OK given what they’ve done on the ground. The schedule is relatively soft and that opens the path to squeaking in at 10-2.

Miami (OH) to win the MAC +475 (1 unit)

Miami (OH) absolutely should have beaten Cincinnati last week. They settled for a short field goal late in the game, and ended up losing by 4 points. They are the most talented and expensive roster in the MAC (and looked like it last week!) and I like this price.

Duke to win the ACC +7000 (0.25 units)

This went great for me last year when I took Duke to win the ACC at 100/1. I’m not getting quite those odds here, but I like it again nonetheless. RB Nate Sheppard is running the ball for 6.4 yards per carry on an astounding 27 carries a game. I’m not sure that can last a whole season, but if it can, Duke’s path to the ACC title game is manageable with the league’s second tier (Louisville, SMU and Virginia Tech) all absent from the schedule.

Rooting Guide

Texas -4 @ Tennessee 

This is a big one for us- we make 6.3 units if Texas misses the playoff and 2.3 units if Tennessee makes the playoff.

Minnesota @ Washington -10

We're long Minnesota and short Washington. An upset here would be massive for both positions.

Ole Miss @ Florida -3.5

We make 2.5 units if Florida makes the playoff and make 1 unit if Ole Miss misses the playoff. That makes this a decent swing for us.

Oregon -3 @ USC

Our USC to make the Playoff ticket at +270 initially looked good but had backslid a bit after their shaky performance against Rutgers last week. This win would be massive for the Trojans.

Georgia Tech -3.5 @ Stanford

Stanford looked bad in a loss at Duke last week. We have over 4.5 wins +210. We need a win here to keep faith alive in that ticket.

South Carolina @ Alabama -12.5

Our South Carolina tickets look pretty dead after their loss last week. They're definitely dead if they lose this one too.

UMass -4 @ Sacramento State

Not only do we have UMass -20.5 in this game, but a UMass win would be great for our Sac State under.

Wisconsin @ Penn State -10

We've built up a decent sized position on Penn State and this is their first game of any significance this season.

Oklahoma State @ West Virginia -1.5

We have both over 8.5 and under 4.5 on Oklahoma State. I think the former looks more likely, and we also have shorts on West Virginia.

UCLA -1.5 @ Maryland

Our UCLA to make the playoff ticket will move to +800 or so with a win here.

San Diego State @ Toledo -3

We have Toledo over 8.5 wins which looks like a coin flip right now. This game will determine which direction it's heading.