College Football Picks- Week 4 2026
Futures*: -11.34 units
Week 0: +3.26 units
Week 1: -5.02 units
Week 2: -2.68 units
Week 3: -6.09 units
Season Total: -21.87 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Last week was a disaster- there’s no way to spin it. I lost 6 units on my regular bets, and marked out a further 10 units on my futures (a lot of it on South Carolina). At least I can take some solace in the fact that Miami (OH) ML and Georgia State ML came close. “Came close” won’t pay the bills though.
I am viewing this more as a rough start to the season than something systemic. I’m still generating a lot of closing line value on both my weekly picks and my futures, and my system is largely unchanged from last year where I won 100 units. Let’s hope for a turnaround.
UNLV @ Akron (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Let’s be clear about this- Akron is bad. I had some hope for the Zips this year, but promising QB Reese Poffenbarger appears to be the only player on planet earth who is suing the NCAA for eligibility and not getting it. That has led to them playing a variety of bad QBs.
The good news is that UNLV might also be bad. It turns out that Jackson Arnold may juts be bad, and the Rebels were pummeled by an average North Texas team. Two touchdowns is too much on the road for such an unproven team, even against the dregs of FBS.
Akron +14.5 -118 (2 units)
Akron ML +500 (1 unit)
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
Northern Illinois is one of the worst situations in FBS. HC Thomas Hammock left after the portal closed, so they got raided and couldn’t restock. They’re playing in the MWC with no natural rivals, and look hopeless through 3 weeks. The market has adjusted a bit- this line would’ve been 3 or 4 in the preseason, but not enough. It’s possible they’re the worst team in FBS, and they’re playing a Georgia State team that scored a nice road upset of Kennesaw State two weeks ago.
Georgia State -9.5 -110 (2 units)
Tulsa @ Arkansas (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
The heat is on 3 games into Ryan Silverfield’s tenure in Fayetteville, as Razorback fans were attempting to organize a boycott of last week’s blowout loss to Georgia. The bottom might really fall out here and we’re getting close to the roster quitting on him. Tulsa already has one upset of a P4 team this year, and is very well coached.
Tulsa ML +255 (1 unit)
UMass @ Sacramento State (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
UMass is kinda good. Sacramento State is a dumpster fire. Sacramento State has let a few games really get away from them this season (they lost 49-3 to Fresno State, and were down 21-0 after a quarter to North Dakota State). They are one of the jokes of college football and this roster may have quit already. I like the wing call on an explosive UMass team.
UMass -20.5 +460 (1 unit)