College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 3 2026
Last week was decent for my futures, I marked in around 4 units. The best results were in the American, where I went short Army and Navy and long Florida Atlantic and South Florida. That paid off nicely as both Florida teams upset the service academies as small underdogs. My Tulsa to win the American at 55/1 and Tulsa to make the Playoff at 300/1 tickets also look quite good as they now have a transitive win over Oregon- I see Tulsa to make the playoff listed at 17/1 now.
New Bets
Texas Tech under 9.5 wins +440 (2 units)
I am quite alarmed by what I see from Texas Tech so far this season. They very easily could have lost on the road as a 23 point favorite to Oregon State, and were outplayed for most of the game. More concerningly, QB Will Hammond does not look fully healthy (he tore his ACL last year) and the coaching staff clearly agrees as they kept randomly bringing in backup Thomas Castellanos late in the game. We know Castellanos sucks, so that’s not a good sign.
Ole Miss to miss the Playoff -180 (2 units)
Ole Miss’ offense looks fun but their defense looks awful. They’re down to 17th in my ratings, and it’s not just me- they’re 20th in SP+ now. They also have an “easy” SEC schedule which is a blessing and a curse- the downside is that I think they have close to no shot at a bid at 9-3 (Texas, Georgia, Alabama etc. would get in ahead of them at 9-3. Computer rankings in the 17-20 range are not consistent with the 35% chance at the playoff that this line prices.
Mississippi State to make the Playoff +1250 (1 unit)
I was bearish on Mississippi State in the preseason and bet against them last week against Minnesota. However, I have been extremely impressed with them so far this season and am very interested in their upside. QB Kamario Taylor has been electric and is generating some real NFL draft hype- he went for 227 yards and 3 TDs on 23 dropbacks this week against Minnesota, and added another 86 yards on the ground. With Taylor at the helm, Mississippi State has a shot to go on a real run.
Sam Houston State to win Conference USA +4000 (1 unit)
I got long 0.1 units of this back in the preseason at +8000 but am adding a more significant position here. Sam Houston State might be 0-2, but it's an impressive 0-2. They outplayed Troy in week 1 but lost due to turnover variance. They hung with Tulsa (who beat Oklahoma State, who beat Oregon) in week 2. Importantly, neither game counts in the conference standings. CUSA also looks very murky as preseason favorites Liberty and Western Kentucky both look awful so far this season- opening the door for a wildcard team like Sam Houston.
Rooting Guide
Games are listed here in rough order of importance.
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic -7
We are pretty long both teams, but given our bet on FIU ML here, we want FIU to win.
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -4
We are long both teams but are considerably longer South Carolina. A dominant victory for either team would establish them as a legitimate playoff contender.
Houston @ Texas Tech -7.5
We’re now short Texas Tech and this is their first real test of the season. This line was 13 in the preseason but has moved nearly a touchdown since, which seems about right- I just don’t think the futures market has caught up yet.
NC State @ Vanderbilt -3.5
I am encouraged by our Vanderbilt under 4.5 wins +290 ticket after two poor performances to start the season. A loss here would make it in the money.
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh -10.5
We have Syracuse over 6.5 wins at +400. They look better than expectations so far but lost a tight game to Cal last week. We'll need them to pull some upsets like this to cash the ticket- their schedule is tough.
LSU -3 @ Ole Miss
Our Ole Miss shorts would get off to a great start with a loss here.
Stanford @ Duke -9.5
This is similar to Syracuse/Pitt- we have the alt line on Stanford (over 4.5 wins +210) and we need them to win some games like this to cash it.
Florida -2.5 @ Auburn
We're long some Auburn to make the Playoff at +700 and need them to win games like this for that to have a chance.
Wyoming @ Central Michigan -1.5
I'm not loving where our Central Michigan over 7.5 wins +230 ticket is right now and we need them to win this game to keep hope alive. Both teams struggled to put away FCS teams last week.
West Virginia vs. Virginia -10
We have a Virginia to win the ACC ticket (although this is a non-conference game), and also West Virginia under 4.5 wins.
Nevada -3.5 @ Middle Tennessee
Nevada is a tough team to figure out as they looked great against WKU and then looked bad against Montana State. We again have the alt total (over 5.5 wins +240) and a win here goes a long way towards cashing that.
Miami -20.5 @ Wake Forest
I certainly don't expect an upset here, but we do have Miami to miss the playoff at +220 and Wake Forest to win the ACC at 75/1- an upset would be amazing for both.