College Football Picks- Week 3 2026
Futures*: -0.77 units
Week 0: +3.26 units
Week 1: -5.02 units
Week 2: -2.68 units
Season Total: -5.81 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Week 2 was a bit of a dud, but it had some promise that didn’t materialize. Middle Tennessee ML +650 was very live, they failed a 2 point conversion late that would’ve sent the game to OT. Delaware ML +800 was also live, they led at halftime. Iowa State ML +440 was also live, they led in the fourth quarter. These are the things that happen when you bet ML underdogs- we’ll connect on these at some point.
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
I liked both these teams in the preseason, and I still like Florida Atlantic, but I love FIU. Through two weeks, they were unlucky to lose to a good USF team, and then they put 500 yards on Buffalo. Former Iowa State QB JJ Kohl has been a revelation, and the Panthers have a great HC in former FAMU HC Willie Simmons. I am going to be on FIU until further notice, they are clearly the best team in CUSA.
Florida International ML +220 (2 units)
Temple @ Toledo (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
Toledo is a good G6 team, they arguably should’ve beaten Michigan State in Week 1. Temple is OK, but has one of the lowest roster budgets in the G6 and a yucky quarterback situation (Jaxon Smolik had 59 yards on 17 dropbacks last week against Penn State). This is another good example of betting the openers, as this moved from 3.5 -105 to 5.5 within 30 minutes of me placing the bet.
Toledo -3.5 -105 (2 units)
Louisiana Tech @ Baylor (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Louisiana Tech has been a pleasant surprise through two weeks, demolishing Northwestern State and hanging in for a half against LSU. Baylor was pretty mid against Auburn, they did have 436 yards but it was on 99 plays (you don’t see an offense run 99 plays very often!). DJ Lagway is volatile and that makes me like the moneyline here.
Louisiana Tech +18.5 -110 (1 unit)
Louisiana Tech ML +760 (0.5 units)
Ball State @ Liberty (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
This is a similar thesis to my MTSU/Marshall bet last week. We know Ball State is really bad. I just think Liberty might also be. Liberty needed a 4th quarter comeback to stave off a Gardner-Webb team without a head coach- Liberty was a 4 TD favorite. The Flames also have some quit potential- HC Jamey Chadwell has been away from the team due to health issues and Liberty has a long history of losing games outright as a double digit favorite in recent years.
Ball State ML +570 (1 unit)
Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is a long-running rivalry that has taken a bit of a hiatus in recent years. Miami (OH) was intriguing to me in the preseason as they made some headlines for being one of the biggest spenders in the G6. That didn’t materialize against Pitt, but Cincinnati is much worse than Pitt. The Bearcats are also poorly coached and have an awful QB situation.
Miami (OH) ML +500 (1 unit)
Georgia State @ UCF (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Georgia State is intriguing- they pulled off a very surprising road win at Kennesaw State last week. It was no fluke, they ran for 5 yards per carry and put up nearly 500 yards of offense. UCF, meanwhile, failed to put up 4 yards per play in an anemic performance against Pitt. Georgia State has more talent on their roster than you’d expect as they’ve taken in a lot of guys who left SEC schools because they couldn’t get playing time- they’re not at a massive athletic disadvantage here.
Georgia State ML +890 (0.5 units)