Futures*: +1.52 units
Week 0: +3.26 units
Week 1: -5.02 units
Week 2: -2.68 units
Week 3: -6.09 units
Week 4: +2.42 units
Week 5: -1.32 units
Week 6: +2.64 units
Week 7: -2.09 units
Week 8: -1.65 units
Week 9: -0.09 units
Season Total: -9.1 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
I split my weekly picks last week, but it was a nice week for my futures as I marked in about 8 units. The market is finally believing in UCLA (recall that we bet them to make the playoff at 15/1 in late September). Our Ohio State shorts and South Carolina longs also had a good week.
Miami @ Notre Dame (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Neither my model nor the eye test has been impressed with Miami the last few weeks. The Hurricanes very well could have lost to either Florida State or North Carolina. Notre Dame has played many teams of that quality (including North Carolina!) and sleepwalked through none of them. You can learn a lot about how a team plays against inferior competition. I got a unit of Notre Dame -6.5 in this game in the preseason and am adding a bit more.
Notre Dame -3.5 -115 (2 units)
BYU @ Utah (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
BYU has dropped out of my model’s top 25. I’m honestly more concerned with their narrow win over an awful Arizona State team than their strange OT loss to UCF. Arizona State is bad, and BYU ran for 1.6 yards per carry against them. That’s a recipe for disaster against a physical Utah defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Utah run away with this one.
Utah -4.5 -110 (1 unit)
Penn State @ Washington (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a Washington hater all season, but am starting to come around to them. Their defense is significantly improved the last few weeks. Penn State, on the other hand, doesn’t have a win over a top 70 team all season. I’m surprised they’re a pick-em on the road here.
Washington ML -113 (1 unit)
Texas State @ Oregon State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
Texas State fell down 28-3 against Boise State, then raced to a 39-28 lead, then lost 46-45. What the Bobcats lack in defense they make up for in offensive firepower. (I don’t bet totals, but I’m surprised the O/U is “only” 70.5 here). These teams can both throw the ball down the field and can’t run or play defense- I think they’re evenly matched as the second best team in the league behind Boise. I was surprised to see this line.
Texas State ML +225 (1 unit)