New Bets
Kentucky to make the Playoff +230 (2 units)
Kentucky is 7-1 with 4 games left. The SEC eating itself has been great news for Kentucky- a 10-2 Wildcats team is now a playoff lock and they’d be in the playoff scrap at 9-3. It’ll help that they have a win over LSU and will likely pick up another win over two against teams that will be in the 9-3 bucket (Tennessee, Florida). 4 winnable games down the stretch and SEC chaos is a good combination.
North Texas to win the American +250 (2 units)
I was skeptical of North Texas in the preseason as new coach Neal Brown had to bring in a trillion new players after Drew Mestemaker and company left for Oklahoma State. The offense has been explosive with QB Tayven Jackson averaging nearly 10 yards/attempt. They’re the highest rated team in the American in my model and are also in a favorable tiebreaker situation.
Wisconsin to make the Playoff +1300 (1 unit)
I have a decent amount of exposure on Wisconsin but am adding a bit more here. There’s an interesting scenario that works in Wisconsin’s favor that I think the market hasn’t caught up to. The Badgers have a 28% chance of winning out, and if they do, they have a decent shot at the Big 10 title game- they’d need some upsets elsewhere, but that certainly seems possible with Indiana looking flawed and Ohio State and UCLA on QB2. The committee has shown such deference to conference title game losers that a 10-2 Wisconsin that loses the Big Ten title game should definitely make the playoff.
Georgia Southern to win the Sun Belt East +2200 (0.5 units)
The Sun Belt East race opened up a bit with James Madison’s loss last week. Georgia Southern is in a tricky spot with tiebreakers (they lost to JMU head to head), but that’s baked into the price here. I give the Eagles an 18% chance of winning out in conference play, and if they do, they just need one more JMU loss to win the division.
Rooting Guide
Louisiana Tech -5.5 @ South Alabama
We win 23.8 units if Louisiana Tech wins the Sun Belt. They more or less clinch a spot in the Sun Belt title game if they win here- they’d be 2 games up on the rest of the division with the important tiebreakers in hand.
Washington @ Nebraska -7.5
We make 48 units if Nebraska make the playoff, and are also short Washington. I haven’t completely given up on Nebraska’s playoff chances given that they’ll play OSU with a backup QB.
Arizona @ Texas Tech -3.5
We win 8.8 units if Texas Tech loses two more games. They looked awful last week and Arizona looked great. I’m surprised this line isn’t even smaller.
Wisconsin @ Iowa -3.5
We make 38.5 units if Wisconsin makes the playoff. If they win this game, they’ll be favored in every remaining game.
Utah -6.5 @ Cincinnati
We have a variety of different tickets on Utah. I was a little surprised to see this line under a touchdown with how dominant Utah’s rushing attack has been.
Delaware @ Western Kentucky -1.5
Our Western Kentucky under 5.5 wins that we got at +310 is pretty much a coin flip. This game is massive for that ticket.
Ohio State -6.5 @ USC
We make 7.4 units if Ohio State misses the playoff. I do think a 9-3 Ohio State probably misses the playoff under the “they’re not the same team without Julian Sayin” argument.
Army @ Memphis -6
Army is still a longshot to win the American but our +900 ticket is going to pick up some serious juice with a road upset here. Memphis has had their struggles with the option in the past.
South Carolina @ Oklahoma -5
Our South Carolina over 7.5 wins ticket, which looked dead a few weeks ago, suddenly has life. If South Carolina wins here, they’ll be favored in every remaining game except UGA.
Minnesota @ Indiana -20
We win 29 units if Indiana misses the playoff. This line seems big given how bad Indiana’s offense has looked.
Mississippi State @ Texas -20.5
Put this one with Minnesota/Indiana on the list of “an upset is really unlikely, but would be enormously helpful”
Nevada @ UCLA -22.5
UCLA should roll easily here, but it’s worth noting this game since UCLA is our most important team.
Oklahoma State -8.5 @ Iowa State
Our Oklahoma State wing calls are in good shape and take another step forward with a win here.
Texas State @ Boise State -11.5
We win 18 units if Texas State wins the Pac-12. They’re way better than people realize and this will be a fun game (the O/U is 63.5).
Virginia @ Wake Forest -13
The market is really catching up to how good Wake Forest is. We win 15.5 units if they win the ACC.
Auburn @ Ole Miss -13.5
We are a bit short Ole Miss and a bit long Auburn and could use an upset here.
Stanford @ Louisville -22.5
We only need one more win for our Stanford over 4.5 wins +210 ticket to cash. This line may be big, but Jeff Brohm’s Louisville is no stranger to losing games as massive favorites.
SMU -10 @ Syracuse
A Syracuse upset here keeps our over 6.5 wins ticket alive, and also is a big help for Wake Forest’s ACC title prospects.
Other results to root for: South Florida -8, FIU +14, Jacksonville State -3.5, Rutgers +14, Northwestern +3.5