Ohio State to miss the Playoff +200 (5 units)
Ohio State is clearly not the same team without Julian Sayin. The market has caught up to this- the line on this weekend’s Ohio State/Oregon game was 14 before Ohio State lost to USC, and is now down to 7. The committee will notice as well. We only really have one data point about how the committee has treated a backup QB, but that one data point is the undefeated 2023 Florida State team that got left out of the 4 team playoff.
I think a 9-3 Ohio State team is about a coin flip to make the field- it depends how the committee would weigh the name brand and ambitious non-conference schedule against the QB injury. With games remaining against Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan, that makes +200 a great buy.
New Mexico to miss the Playoff -210 (2 units)
New Mexico has been a great story this year and I’m really excited to see them ranked in the AP poll for the first time ever. They force a ton of turnovers and play slow games with very few possessions. That makes them vulnerable to upsets, as we nearly saw against San Jose State this past weekend. The Lobos need to win out and have Boise State drop a game somewhere. This should be -350 or so.
Trinidad Chambliss to win the Heisman +1375 (1 unit)
Sam Leavitt to win the Heisman +5000 (0.5 units)
Devon Dampier to win the Heisman 130/1 (0.25 units)
I don’t normally do awards bets, but I like these lines a good bit. It’s important to remember that the Heisman is a vibes-based race, and voters are very fixated on what happens at the end of the season. The best example is 2018- Tua was the runaway favorite in early November, and Kyler Murray led Oklahoma to the playoff with two big games down the stretch and passed him at the last minute.
Ole Miss being +700 to win the SEC and Trinidad being +1375 to win the Heisman doesn’t add up. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Ole Miss wins the SEC and he doesn’t win it. Similarly, Sam Leavitt will be in the conversation if LSU wins the SEC (which is +780). Devon Dampier will be a contender if Utah finishes 13-0 and ends the regular season #1 (which is maybe +1500 or so).
South Carolina to make the Playoff +1200 (1 unit)
South Carolina to win the National Championship 400/1 (0.2 units)
I loaded up on South Carolina to make the playoff in the preseason and looked like an idiot when they started 2-3. Now they’re 5-3, 15th in my ratings, and ranked in the AP poll. The Gamecocks finish with 3 games they’ll be TD favorites in (Texas A&M, at Arkansas, Clemson) and a home game against Georgia. The committee is not going to leave out a 9-3 South Carolina team on a 7 game winning streak with a win over Georgia.
I also like the super long shot on the national championship odds at 400/1 given the upside of LaNorris Sellers.
USC to win the Big Ten +2000 (1 unit)
To make the Big Ten title game, USC needs to win out (a tough task, considering they play Indiana and UCLA) and have Ohio State drop a game somewhere. You may wonder how their path to the title game is so clear with 2 conference losses, but it’s because the Trojans are in a great tiebreaker situation. If there’s a logjam of teams at 7-2 in conference play, it’ll be decided by conference SOS- which USC would win given that they play UCLA, Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin and Oregon. The Trojans have shown they’re talented enough to run the table.
Oregon to win the Big Ten +3200 (0.5 units)
Oregon to win the National Championship 350/1 (0.2 units)
Like USC, Oregon is in a favorable tiebreaker situation thanks to their tough Big Ten strength of schedule. Their path to the Big Ten title game involves winning out and having both Indiana and USC drop a game somewhere. That seems feasible.
I also like sprinkling in the national title future at 350/1. No one doubts that Oregon has one of the most talented rosters in the country. The problem has been their offensive playcalling and Dylan Raiola’s inconsistency. Will firing their OC cause the Ducks to turn into a war machine and Raiola to turn into the prince that was promised? Probably not, but if you want a 350/1 longshot, I think you could do worse than pick a team with NFL talent up and down the roster.
Miami to miss the Playoff +2500 (1 unit)
In my model’s estimation, Miami has slipped in the last few weeks from “top tier national title contender” to “good, but not great, top 10 team”. The eye test backs this up- North Carolina and Florida State both gave them all they could handle. The path to missing the playoff requires (i) losing to Notre Dame, (ii) losing another stupid ACC game (Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College are all prickly in their own way) and (iii) losing the ACC title game to a red hot Wake Forest team. Is it likely? No. But Miami had an epic late season collapse in 2024 when they looked like a playoff lock, and I don’t think a 10-3 Hurricanes team that loses the ACC title game gets an at-large bid.