College Football Picks Week 0 2025

The offseason is finally coming to an end. Week 0 is a relatively new addition to the college football calendar, only coming into existence a few years ago. This year it delivers us only a handful of games, most notably a Kansas State/Iowa State clash that could go a long way towards deciding the Big 12. It also gives us one game I have quite a big opinion on.

Week 0

Stanford @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

If you’ve been following my website this offseason, you know how much I love Stanford this year. The Cardinal have been left for dead after HC Troy Taylor was fired amidst a scandal in the offseason. Their roster has been picked clean- most notably, future NFL DE David Bailey left for a 7 figure payday at Texas Tech. However, I think the market is overreacting here- their recent recruiting averages are still passable, and they have a good coach at the helm in Frank Reich.

I made a bunch of week 0 and week 1 bets back in May and I got Stanford at -2.5 in this game. The market clearly disagrees with me about the Cardinal- this line has moved all the way to Stanford +2.5. I got 2 units down at -2.5 and am going to double down at +2.5. While I expect to be betting on Stanford often this year, I’m also bearish on a Hawai’i team that is amongst the least talented in FBS.

Stanford -2.5 -110 (2 units)

Stanford +2.5 -112 (1 unit)

Week 1

I will post most of my week 1 picks this weekend. However, one of them involves a team that’s in action over week 0, so I figure it is best to post that now.

UNLV @ Sam Houston State (Friday 8/29, 8:30 PM Central)

UNLV and Sam Houston State had remarkably similar seasons last year. Both teams were pleasant surprises that won double digit games for the first time in their FBS history. Both teams contended for conference titles despite having no preseason expectations. Both teams lost their head coaches to bigger programs after these breakout seasons.

The market is (correctly) pricing in a ton of regression for Sam Houston this year. They had an experienced team last year, and KC Keeler took several of the good players and coaches with him to Temple. The market is not pricing in enough regression for UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels have little continuity from last year’s team (QB Hajj Malik-Williams graduated and star WR Ricky White was drafted by the Seahawks). They did have the money to bring in some exciting transfers, like QB Alex Orji from Michigan. However, G5 programs that sprout out of nowhere to have success don’t tend to sustain it across multiple coaches. I like Sam Houston quite a bit here.

Sam Houston State +13.5 -110 (3 units)

Sam Houston State ML +340 (1 unit)