2025 College Football Preseason Playoff Bets- Part 2
In my last post, I went through my bets on teams to make or miss the playoff from the SEC and Big Ten. I’ll cover all the other conferences today, as well as add in a few other preseason bets.
Independents
Notre Dame to make the playoff -125 (2 units)
The Irish start 2025 third in my ratings, behind only Ohio State and Alabama. They combine an extremely talented roster with the best running back in the country (Jeremiyah Love) and a very promising young QB (CJ Carr). The Irish were extremely injured down the stretch last year (a product of a 16 game schedule!) and can only really be healthier this year. That’s a scary prospect considering that they were the second best team in the country in 2024.
I will admit that this is a bit of a stale line- I see this at -190 now. BetRivers has some weird lines sometimes and I picked them off on this one before they moved their lines to match everyone else. The Irish are significantly more likely than not to make a return trip to the playoff this year.
Big 12
Arizona State to make the playoff +470 (2 units)
Arizona State went 10-2 last year and was around the 15th best team in the country. They have a future NFL WR in Jordyn Tyson and a possible NFL QB in Sam Leavitt. Sure, they lost RB Cam Skattebo to the draft, but running back production is a lot easier to replace than other positions.
The Big 12 is the hardest league to predict in the country, but I feel pretty decent about Arizona State’s chances this season. It’s also interesting to me that I can get this at +470 when Arizona State is +600 to win the Big 12. I think there's a good chance that the Big 12 gets two teams into the playoff this year, making this an even better bet.
TCU to make the playoff +920 (1 unit)
No one noticed, but TCU was really good in the second half of 2024. The Horned Frogs fell out of Big 12 contention after a 3-3 start but went 6-1 down the stretch. Young QB Josh Hoover went through his growing pains early but looked excellent in the second half of the season. Tennessee aggressively pursued Hoover after Nico Iamaleava transferred out, but TCU was able to hold on to him.
In the grab bag that is the Big 12, I like betting on teams with exciting quarterbacks. TCU certainly fits the bill, and we saw in 2022 that this program has a lot of upside when everything clicks. This is a nice longshot bet.
Colorado to make the playoff +1600 (0.5 units)
Colorado? Have I gone crazy? Did I forget that Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are in the NFL now?
Hear me out on this one. I was looking for some longshots to bet on to make the playoff, and the key ingredient of these longshot bets is upside. Colorado brought in an exciting transfer QB in former Liberty QB Kaidon Salter. Salter is a fantastic athlete who only ended up at Liberty after he was dismissed from Tennessee for marijuana possession.
I think that Deion Sanders did a fantastic job of coaching up Shedeur and I am intrigued by the possibility of him working with a dynamic athlete in Salter. Colorado could flame out and go 4-8, but I think an exciting run to the Big 12 title is a possibility.
Mountain West
Boise State to make the playoff +285 (2 units)
Boise State was the best team in the G5 last year, and it wasn’t close. Obviously, a lot of this was thanks to a certain Mr. Jeanty who is going to be playing on Sundays this year. A lot has been made about how Boise State will replace him. I think that this misses two key points- (i) the rest of this team was pretty dang good last year, (ii) running back production is easier to replace than other positions, even at the elite level.
Maddux Madsen is back at QB and the Broncos fended off several power conference teams who were interested in him in the portal. It’s not a lock that the Broncos make it back to the playoff, but at +285, it doesn’t have to be. They are so much more talented than every other team in the G5 and that makes this a clear bet for me.
Other Bets
I have two other win total bets that I’ve made since my last post on the subject a few weeks ago that I’ve added below.
Stanford over 3.5 wins +140 (4 units)
Stanford is in a weird spot. HC Troy Taylor was fired in the spring after an HR investigation into his conduct. His firing appears to be some combination of the results of that investigation, as well as lackluster results on the field.
Stanford is the one program in the country where the GM is clearly above the head coach. The good news is that said GM is Andrew Luck, one of the most respected people in football. He’s brought in his former Colts HC in Frank Reich to run the ship this year. Reich is a great coach, and the Cardinal couldn’t do much better for a one year interim stop gap.
My model really likes Stanford this year, but I was waiting to see how much talent they lost in the spring portal window before placing this bet. They certainly lost a lot, including star EDGE David Bailey, but that’s reflected in the fact that the win total is only 3.5.
My model loved Northwestern the year that Pat Fitzgerald got fired and I regretted not listening to it (the Wildcats went 8-5 with a preseason win total of 3.5). I get similar vibes from Stanford this year- they have a great coach and a great talent evaluator. There are enough bad teams in the ACC that they can get to 4 wins.
BYU under 7.5 wins +125 (1 unit)
2024 BYU was one of the luckiest teams in recent memory. They got a very questionable call to beat Utah and scraped by an awful Oklahoma State team at home. Despite going 11-2, they finished the year outside the top 25 in my ratings. BYU’s true talent level was around an 8-4 or 7-5 team last year. BYU returns a below average amount of production from that team.
A lot BYU’s success last year was due to QB Jake Retzlaff. His status for the season is now in question after allegations he sexually assaulted a woman surfaced. My model already disliked BYU even before this, but if they are without Retzlaff, I am not sure this is a bowl team.