2025 College Football Preseason Playoff Bets- Part 1
Last year was the first year of the 12 team playoff, and I left the year convinced that there was a lot of opportunity in betting on teams to make or miss the playoff. I spent a lot of time this offseason fleshing out a model to predict the probability each team makes the playoff. I wrote about my methodology in considerable detail here, if you’re interested. Today I’ll take a look at some of my favorite bets that I made informed by this model. Note that I have enough picks that I’ll be dividing this post into two parts, the second part will come in a few days.
SEC
Texas to miss the Playoff +250 (4 units)
If you read my SEC win totals picks, you’ll know that I’m bearish on Texas this year. The short version of the story is that while they’ll improve at QB with Arch under center, they lost a ton of talent to the draft and they’ll be worse at nearly every other position.
I’m trying to get as much short exposure to Texas as I can. I think this might be a better bet than under 9.5 wins +160 is. I think that a 9-3 Texas team misses the playoff most of the time- the Longhorns draw 4 of the bottom 5 teams in the SEC, so they’ll be pretty light on quality wins if they have three losses. I expect this year to be a major step backwards for the ‘Horns.
Ole Miss to miss the Playoff -176 (3 units)
2024 was Ole Miss’s window. The Rebels were a year ahead of everyone else in terms of the importance of the portal, and it showed last year as they had their most talented team in 50 years. Loyal readers will recall that I bet Ole Miss under 9.5 wins and Ole Miss to miss the playoff last year, and was very happy when they fell apart against Florida in November.
This year’s Ole Miss team is much, much worse than last year’s. 4 Rebels went in the first two rounds of the draft, including QB Jaxson Dart and stud DT Walter Nolen. Worse, everyone is using the portal now, so Coach Kiffin is not cleaning up there to the degree he was a few years ago. New QB Austin Simmons has only 32 career pass attempts to his name, and figures to be a bottom half quarterback in the SEC. I think that the Rebels will come nowhere near the playoff this year.
Georgia to miss the Playoff +198 (3 units)
Georgia did not look right last year. It’s a testament to how strong a foundation Kirby Smart has built that I can say that in a year that they won the SEC, but I think most ‘Dawgs fans would agree. Their defense was worse than its usual standard, and their offense badly missed Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers. If you flip OT wins against Georgia Tech and Texas to losses, they would’ve missed the playoff.
Gunner Stockton is going to be behind center this year for UGA, and I am not sold on him based on what we saw at the end of last year. They also have a difficult schedule that features 7 games that I expect to have a single digit spread. I think that the rest of the SEC might have finally caught up to Georgia.
Texas A&M to make the Playoff +245 (2 units)
Well, if I’m betting on all of these SEC teams to miss the playoff, I have to bet on some to make it, right? Look no further than the Aggies. Mike Elko put together a solid first year in College Station and seems to have found his QB of the future in Marcel Reed. My model loves his dual-threat ability and I expect him to be one of the better QBs in the SEC in 2025.
In even better news, the Aggies are super experienced around Reed. They have seniors up and down both lines, and I loved the pickup of former NC State WR KC Concepcion in the portal. When you add in several years of excellent recruiting classes, I rank this as the fifth most talented roster in the country. I’ll gladly take the fifth most talented roster in the country with a promising QB at +245 to make the playoff.
Oklahoma to make the Playoff +500 (2 units)
This should come as no surprise given that I bet Oklahoma over 6.5 wins a few weeks ago. The Sooners had awful injury luck last year, especially in their receiving core. By November, their top four wide receivers were all hurt. We saw flashes of their talent last year, like when they blew out Alabama in November, but they were never healthy enough to put it all together.
The Sooners also upgraded significantly at QB, bringing in John Mateer from Washington State along with his OC, Ben Arbuckle. This is one of the top ten most talented rosters in the country and I think that makes +500 a pretty attractive price.
LSU to miss the Playoff -162 (2 units)
If you read my post on the expected composition of this year's playoff, you’d know that I expect it to be very hard for any team to get into the field at 9-3. If I was running an SEC athletic department, I would be loath to schedule tough games out of conference knowing this. I project LSU to be a significant underdog at Clemson in week 1, and that makes their path to the playoff much harder.
Even outside of that, I just don’t think LSU is in the elite tier of the SEC this year. They don’t have a Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr. type of receiver this year. They are also taking a huge step back on the offensive line after three of last year’s five starters got drafted, including Will Campbell at #4 overall. This looks like an 8-4 type year in Baton Rouge which will not have the Tigers in playoff contention.
Tennessee to miss the Playoff -290 (2 units)
I am curious to see what this line would’ve been with Nico Iamaleava still in Knoxville. Alas, there were no odds to make/miss the playoff listed before the spring portal window closed. I was a seller of Tennessee even with Nico and I certainly am with Joey Aguilar.
The Vols got extremely lucky to go 10-2 and make the field last year. They beat Florida in overtime in one of the more baffling games of recent memory. They lost to a bad Arkansas team. They got wiped off the field by both Georgia and Ohio State. Tennessee was not that good last year, and now they only have 1 surefire NFL player on the roster. They are going to take a major step back in 2025.
Big Ten
Oregon to miss the playoff -220 (4 units)
Oregon started the season 13-0 last year before getting blown out by Ohio State in a Rose Bowl rematch. I think the Ducks were around the fifth best team in the country last year- worse than their 13-0 start would indicate, but better than their disastrous playoff showing would indicate.
I see no reason that 2025 Oregon will be better than 2024 Oregon. QB Dante Moore is a clear downgrade from Dillon Gabriel- he was disappointing in his 2023 true freshman campaign at UCLA. He has had a year to learn the system, but he will not bring the veteran presence that Gabrel had. Star WR Evan Stewart looks to be out for the year. Oregon is also the most portal-heavy of any of the teams that will be in the preseason AP top 10, which my model frowns upon.
It’s worth noting that Oregon’s schedule is extremely soft this year. I think it’s so easy that it works against them. Their only games against preseason top 25 teams are a trip to Penn State and a home game against Indiana. A 10-2 Oregon team is thus likely to be on the outside looking in of the playoff- the committee is not going to look kindly on a team whose best wins are against the likes of Iowa and Minnesota.
Indiana to make the playoff +630 (1 unit)
As loyal readers of my blog will remember, I have a great track record on betting on Indiana to make the playoff. I’m back at it this year. The Hoosiers scored an absolute coup in the portal by landing former Cal QB Fernando Mendoza. I really like their approach to the portal- they brought in a few key guys to supplement an otherwise healthy roster, as opposed to trying to build a whole roster out of the portal.
Mendoza joins an otherwise healthy roster. Indiana still has a fair number of the guys that Curt Cignetti brought over from James Madison, and has three sure-fire NFL players on the roster. It’s not often you can say that about Indiana!
I don’t think it’s likely Indiana is headed back to the playoff, but there are some exciting pieces here, as well as a great coach. +630 seems like a nice price, all things considered.