College Football Picks Week 1 2025

The season got off to a bit of a sad start with Stanford losing at Hawai’i. I not only had Stanford +2.5, but also have Stanford over 3.5 wins as well. I am dismayed to see Stanford starting 5th year transfer QB Ben Gulbranson- I expected highly touted freshman Elijah Brown to win the starting job. Brown must be behind schedule in his development if a crappy veteran like Gulbranson can beat him out.

Long time readers of my blog will know that I often bet on big underdogs in the first week or two of the season. I have had lots of success with this strategy, even winning several of these ML picks outright over the years (2019 San Jose State as a +1200 dog comes to mind). I am sticking to my guns this year and have four underdogs I like this week.

Don’t forget that I also bet on Sam Houston in their week 1 game against UNLV. I posted this pick last week since Sam Houston and UNLV both played in week 0. This line has moved several points in my favor after UNLV’s awful week 0 performance.

Note that I bet some of these lines in the preseason. A few have moved in my direction and a few have moved against, but you might see slightly different lines.

Ball State @ Purdue (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Purdue was really, really bad last year. It’s not just that they went 1-11, they also were 3-9 ATS and scored 0 points in 3 separate games. They were the worst Big Ten team in at least 5 years, possibly 10. That led to HC Ryan Walters’ ouster, and Barry Odom is in from UNLV. Purdue will be better this year simply because it would be hard for a power conference team to be worse.

Ball State is also under new management this year- Mike Neu’s 9 year run came to a close, and they brought in Mike Uremovich from non-scholarship FCS Butler. I love the hire- MAC teams need to start looking further afield for coaches. There is a storied tradition of non-scholarship FCS coaches working out at the next level (e.g. Jim Harbaugh), and it’s an especially relevant skillset at a woebegone program like Ball State.

Both of these teams have 30+ new guys on the roster. Purdue was so, so bad last year that some improvement is likely, but they weren’t much better than Ball State last year. 16.5 seems like a rich spread against a plucky MAC team.

Ball State +16.5 -110 (2 units)

Ball State ML +520 (1 unit)

Rice @ Louisiana (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

Like Ball State, Rice also hired a non-scholarship FCS coach over the offseason in Scott Abell. I like this hire even more- Abell took over an awful program at Davidson and turned it into a winner with a very unique option offense. He brings said offense to Rice, and it will make them a very tough team to prep for.

My model also does not like Louisiana this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns started off 10-2 but lost their last two games by a combined 65-6. They got picked apart in the portal and are starting Walker Howard at QB, who could not even win the LSU backup job last year. They lack talent and I’m surprised they’re the consensus pick to win the SBC West.

Rice is one of my pet teams this year and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Scott Abell era get off to a 1-0 start.

Rice +14.5 -110 (2 units)

Rice ML +470 (1 unit)

Colorado State @ Washington (Saturday, 10 PM Central)

Washington was a very strange team last year. I essentially forgot about the Huskies all year, as they were not good enough to be relevant but not bad enough to pay attention to. It was also their first year in the Big Ten, so their schedule made no sense.

Colorado State, meanwhile, finally broke through last year. They have more money than the rest of the MWC (as we saw when they poached Nevada’s coach a few years ago) and that is finally starting to show on the roster. They nearly made the conference title game and return multi-year starter Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi at QB.

My model sees Washington as one of the least talented rosters in the Big Ten and that means they are too big a favorite against a solid G5 team like Colorado State.

Colorado State +18.5 -110 (1 unit)

Colorado State ML +720 (0.5 units)

Hawai’i @ Arizona (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)

I was very impressed with Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado last week. The 5’10” redshirt freshman played through an injury and executed Hawai’is trademark run n’ shoot offense well. The Rainbow Warriors picked up their biggest win in several years against Stanford.

They now travel to face an Arizona team that was a massive disappointment last year. Arizona was a sleeper playoff pick in the preseason and collapsed to 4-8. Tetairoa McMillan is now gone and QB Noah Fifita regressed massively from 2023 to 2024. I expect Arizona to be in the bottom tier of the Big 12.

I am confused as to why this line is so big. Arizona is one of the worst teams in a power conference, and we just saw what Hawai’i can do against such a team.

Hawai’i -17.5 -112 (1 unit)

Hawai’i ML +575 (0.5 units)

LSU @ Clemson (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

If you’ve been following my picks this offseason, this won’t be a surprise. I’ve been buying Clemson at every opportunity, and the market has moved pretty far in my favor. For example, I got Clemson to win the ACC at +170 in May, and it is +105 now.

I got this line a little bit ago at 2.5 (it’s 3.5 now). I think Clemson is clearly more talented than LSU- Clemson is elite on both lines, and should control the game physically.

Clemson -2.5 -120 (1 unit)

I’m updating this post with one more bonus bet. With Boise State losing, the race for the G5 playoff spot is wide open. Certainly USF’s odds of making the playoff go up after beating Boise, but other teams’ odds to make the playoff go up as well. I already liked Tulane and they are my new favorite to make the playoff from the G5 after today’s developments.

Tulane to make the Playoff +750 (1 unit)