The biggest risers in the playoff odds this week are Tennessee and BYU. Both teams are more likely than not to make the field after their big wins over Alabama and Notre Dame, respectively. Ole Miss and Kentucky are also big risers this week- their wins didn’t look as flashy on paper, but they covered the spread by multiple touchdowns and thus my model’s opinion of them rose significantly.
SEC
The SEC race has only gotten cloudier as the season moves along. Two weeks ago, I said that Georgia, Alabama and Texas were the clear top 3. All three teams lost last week.
I expect the SEC to have 2.5 teams who finish 10-2 or better: they will be playoff locks. There will be further 2.5 teams who finish 9-3. Some of them will get in and some of them won’t. You’re going to want to be the 9-3 SEC team who has the head to head wins over the other 9-3 SEC teams- whoever they end up being.
Big Ten
The Big Ten race has also gotten cloudier, partially due to a spate of QB injuries that are not properly accounted for here. Ohio State, Oregon and UCLA are all down to QB2 for varying amounts of time. That could be good news for teams like Northwestern, who get to play both Ohio State and Oregon with their backup QBs.
The most important team in the Big Ten playoff race is USC. The Trojans still play Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA and thus have a lot of ability to change things up. They’ll be a lock themselves if they finish 10-2 or better.
ACC + Notre Dame
Notre Dame remains a functional lock despite their loss to BYU. The playoff bubble will be weak enough this year that 10-2 Notre Dame will definitely get in, so they’d have to lose to both Miami and SMU to miss the playoff.
The biggest change this week is that my model is starting to really believe in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are now favored in every remaining regular season game and would be only 7 point underdogs against Miami in a hypothetical ACC title game.
Big 12
It was obviously a great week for BYU. There are still potential landmines ahead for the Cougars (they’re only a touchdown favorite at UCF today!) but I think they can probably afford 2 losses and still make it into the field.
I now think it’s more likely than not that the Big 12 gets 2 teams into the playoff. The fact that Texas Tech doesn’t play BYU and Utah helps.