SEC
I now project 4.3 SEC teams in the 12 team playoff would project 8.0 SEC teams (half the league!) to make a 24 team playoff. Both numbers are up considerably this week. The Big 12 became materially less likely to produce 2 bids with BYU and Texas Tech’s losses, and that was the SEC’s gain.
We are nearly certain to get a 9-3 SEC team in the playoff. The most likely scenario is that the SEC standings look something like this:
2 SEC teams go 10-2 or better: they face off in the conference title game, and both make the playoff easily
3 SEC teams go 9-3. 2 of them make the playoff, 1 of them (likely the one that has head to head losses to the other(s)) misses the playoff
For example, one way it could shake out is 10-2 Georgia playing 10-2 LSU for the SEC title, while 9-3 Alabama and 9-3 Tennessee get in, and 9-3 Kentucky gets left out due to head to head losses to Alabama and Tennessee.
If we had a 24 team playoff this year, most SEC teams would be in good shape at 8-4 and I think an exceptionally strong 7-5 resume (say, Texas with a win over Ohio State) would have a chance at the playoff.
Big Ten
I now project 2.8 SEC teams in the 12 team playoff and would project 6.3 Big Ten teams to make a 24 team playoff.
The Big Ten is tough to prognosticate as teams’ schedules are of wildly varying qualities. For example, USC seems like a sure bet for the playoff at 10-2 as they’d have wins over Ohio State and Indiana. UCLA is in shaky ground at 10-2 as their best win would likely be over Wisconsin. I think every Big Ten team will at least be in the conversation at 10-2, with some being stone cold locks and others needing help. Only Ohio State has a chance at 9-3.
Ohio State being down to a backup quarterback makes things more interesting for the whole league. They still have to play Northwestern, USC and Nebraska. If Ohio State’s QB situation is as bad as I fear, that could be great news for second tier Big Ten teams who are looking for a marquee win.
ACC + Notre Dame
If we forget about Notre Dame and focus just on actual ACC teams, I now project 1.4 ACC teams to make the 12 team playoff and 3.0 ACC teams to make a 24 team playoff.
The big news here has been the rise of Wake Forest from a fringe playoff contender to a real playoff contender. The Demon Deacons will be a favorite in every remaining game including a road trip to SMU. If they win out in the regular season and lose the rematch with Miami, they’ll be 11-2. Given what we’ve seen from the committee regarding conference championship game losers (SMU was in a similar spot in 2024), and the chaos we’ve seen in the SEC and Big 12, I am growing optimistic about 11-2 Wake Forest’s chance of an at-large.
Wake Forest is also looking good enough that I think there’s some chance they just beat Miami and win the ACC title themselves.
In a 24 team world, the upper middle class of the ACC (Virginia Tech, Pitt) would still have real playoff hopes.
Big 12
I now project 1.6 Big 12 teams in the 12 team playoff and would project 4.2 Big 12 teams in the 24 team playoff.
BYU and Texas Tech’s losses hurt the league’s chances overall. It would be better if they took those losses to fellow league contenders, but instead they lost to UCF and Cincinnati.
This week’s Texas Tech/Arizona game is pretty much an eliminator. The loser will have 2 losses in conference and only a faint path to the conference title game. The winner is alive.
I think that any team that can make it to the Big 12 title game at 11-1 is in good shape if they lose the Big 12 title game. The most likely exception is Texas Tech, who manages to avoid both BYU and Utah in conference play.