College Football Playoff Picture- Week 6 2026
News broke this week that we’re likely moving to a 24 team playoff in 2027. I figured it would be nice to follow along with the hypothetical 24 team playoff race as the season unfolds. This week, in addition to presenting each team’s odds to make the actual 12 team playoff, I’ll also present their odds to make a hypothetical 24 team playoff based on the model I made.
SEC
The biggest beneficiary of a 24 team playoff is going to be mid-tier SEC teams. All 9-3 SEC teams and some 8-4 SEC teams would get in the expanded field- great news for schools like Missouri and Kentucky.
In the actual 12 team world we live in, I remain much lower on Texas than the consensus. The Longhorns will be underdogs at LSU and small favorites in a few other games. They’re sixth in my ratings, but might rack up enough losses to miss the field.
Big Ten
It was a huge week in the Big Ten- UCLA’s playoff odds soared while Oregon’s crated. Nebraska also missed a big opportunity to build their resume by blowing a lead at home against Indiana. I think we’ll end up getting 3 Big Ten teams in, but it probably won’t be the Indiana/Ohio State/Oregon trio we expected in the preseason.
While Ohio State/Indiana is the headliner in the Big Ten this weekend, Oregon/Nebraska and UCLA/Wisconsin are arguably bigger for the playoff race. The Oregon/Nebraska loser is likely out. UCLA is in very good shape with a win over Wisconsin- although note thatmy model is not aware of QB Nico Iamaleava’s injury.
Just like in the SEC, the hypothetical 24 team world is great for middling Big Ten teams. Northwestern and Wisconsin would be big beneficiaries.
ACC + Notre Dame
The ACC’s playoff race remains relatively uninteresting. Notre Dame and Miami are in excellent shape and everyone else is relying on upsetting Miami in the ACC title game. Perhaps 11-2 Wake Forest of SMU has a faint at-large chance.
The middle of the ACC is weak enough this year that I don’t think the league would fare that much better in a 24 team world. We’d probably get 3 ACC teams plus Notre Dame in the field.
Big 12
This week’s BYU/Notre Dame game is massive. A BYU win increases the Big 12’s chances of multiple bids for 2 reasons- first, because it’s huge for BYU’s resume, second, because it increases the league’s stature as a whole.
In a 24 team world, games like this weekend’s Oklahoma State/Houston game would be massive. Most of the Big 12 would be able to tell themselves that they still have a real shot at the playoff.