College Football Playoff Picture- Week 5 2026
SEC
In the preseason, I was expecting either 3 or 4 SEC teams to make the playoff. Now, 4 SEC teams is by far the most likely outcome. In my simulations of the season, a typical scenario shows 3 SEC teams going 10-2 or better (and making the playoff easily), and 2 SEC teams going 9-3 with one making the playoff and one missing the playoff.
Georgia, Alabama and Texas are all in good shape (although I am not as confident in Texas as the market is). We’ll most likely get those 3 in the field, plus one other. LSU is one contender. They have a sneaky important game at Kentucky this weekend- it’s definitely loseable (they’re only a 8.5 point favorite).
I’m much lower on Florida than the market, as they are barely in my top 20 after their blowout loss to Mizzou, and still have several tough games to come.
Big Ten
The Big Ten is expected to get 3.3 playoff teams- pretty similar to the preseason. Which teams are in the hunt, however, has changed a lot. The preseason expectation was for Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana to make the playoff and for Michigan, Penn State, USC and Washington to contend for a spot. The first group looks good (Oregon’s odds took a dent from their loss to Oklahoma State, but they’re still a coin flip to make it), but the second group has been a disaster. Michigan, Washington and Penn State each have 2 losses and USC looks very shaky.
A new crop of contenders have risen in their place- Nebraska, UCLA, Wisconsin and Northwestern. I am way higher on Nebraska’s odds than the consensus- they’re 18th in my model and have a 40% chance of going 10-2 or better, and that would guarantee a win over one of Indiana/Ohio State/Oregon. I also have tickets on the other 3 teams to make the playoff as well.
I think the market is sleeping on the chances of this new second tier of Big Ten teams. The committee is going to have a tough time leaving out a 10-2 Big Ten team in favor of say, a second 9-3 SEC team.
One final Big Ten note- I made a late addition to my futures bets this week, I added a bet on Anthony Colandrea to win the Heisman at 225/1. My futures bets post is now updated with this.
ACC + Notre Dame
The ACC’s loss has been the SEC’s gain. In the preseason, I priced around a 55% chance of multiple ACC teams making the playoff. That’s fallen to about 25%. The main path to 2 bids is someone upsetting Miami in the ACC title game. I’m already struggling to see anyone in the ACC get an at-large bid if they don’t have a win over Notre Dame or Miami.
Notre Dame and Miami’s odds have increased a lot from the preseason because (a) they look as good as expected and (b) their schedules look weaker than expected.
Big 12
The preseason expectation was for Texas Tech to dominate the Big 12 and for BYU and Utah to be the second tier. Texas Tech is a shaky 4-0 and the Utah schools look solid (especially Devon Dampier’s Utes). That puts all 3 teams on roughly equal footing.
I think it’s a coin flip whether the Big 12 gets 2 team into the playoff. Texas Tech, BYU and Utah are already high enough in the polls that say, an 11-1 Utah that loses the conference title game to Texas Tech could get an at-large. Next weekend’s BYU/Notre Dame game will be huge for the conference’s chance at multiple bids.
Group of Six
I haven’t explicitly built a model for G6 playoff teams yet, but it’s clear that Boise State is the front runner. However, there are enough quality teams in the Pac-12 that I only give them about a 25% shot of finishing 12-1.
If Boise stumbles, the big unanswered question for me here is whether the committee will prefer James Madison or North Dakota State. There’s a reasonable chance that both teams are sitting at either 13-0 or 12-1 and vying for the G6 spot at season’s end. I’m guessing they’d prefer NDSU, but I’m not sure.