2026 CFB Preseason Ratings- P4

P4 Intro

Back in June, I went through my G6 preseason ratings- Boise State, South Florida and San Diego State are the top G6 teams in my preseason ratings. Today we’ll go through the P4 conferences and my overall top 25.

Note that all ratings in this post are in points relative to the average P4 team. That is, Oklahoma’s rating of 9.1 indicates that they’d be expected to beat the average P4 team by 9.1 points on a neutral field. The average G6 team is 15 points worse than the average P4 team, so that means Oklahoma would be a 24.1 point favorite against an average G6 team on a neutral field.

Overall Top 25

I don’t think anyone will be that surprised by the top of this list- all of the preseason AP top 10 appears in my top 11. The order is a bit different though- I haven’t seen many other people have Notre Dame 1st overall. The Irish finished last year 2nd in my ratings behind Indiana and are near the top of the country in returning production, so it makes them my natural number 1.

21 of the AP top 25 are in my model’s top 25. BYU (AP 14), Iowa (AP 22), Houston (AP 23) and Louisville (AP 24) are missing. I have Florida, South Carolina, Clemson and Auburn in their place. This is pretty typical- computer models like mine are often higher on these middle-of-the-pack SEC teams.

SEC

The SEC is much less top-heavy than it was a few years ago. From 2016-2023, Georgia and Alabama were often a touchdown better than the rest of the league. Yes, Georgia is still at the top of the league, but they’re only projected as a 4 point favorite at Alabama and at Ole Miss.

It’s worth noting that I’m a bit lower on LSU than the consensus. I’m betting against the Tigers week 1 against Clemson.

Someone from the middle of the pack will likely distinguish themselves from the field and make it into the playoff. Last year it was Ole Miss- the Rebels barely made the preseason AP Top 25, but made it to the Playoff semifinals. As I discussed in my preseason SEC picks, I like the odds on Auburn or South Carolina to be that team.

Big Ten

Two things are immediately clear comparing the Big Ten chart to the SEC chart:

(a) The top of the Big Ten is as good, if not better, than the SEC

(b) The bottom of the Big Ten is much worse than the bottom of the SEC

There’s simply a lot of mid in the Big Ten- if you exclude Purdue, the other 6 members of the former Big Ten West are all within 6 points of each other. With an 18 team league with unbalanced schedules, that means there’s a huge variety in the strength of conference schedules. Penn State, for example, avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana and gets to play Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern and Maryland.

The conventional wisdom is that the top tier of the league is Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana (all are in the AP top 6), and the second tier is USC, Michigan, Washington and Penn State (all are between 14th and 18th in the AP poll). My model is higher on USC and lower on Washington than the consensus, but broadly agrees.

ACC (plus Notre Dame)

Notre Dame is unsurprisingly far better than the actual members of the ACC. Miami is unsurprisingly my league favorite, but I disagree significantly with the consensus by having Clemson as their main challenger (most people have Louisville, SMU, or even Virginia Tech). I’m also higher on Florida State than most- I think people are undervaluing the raw talent on Clemson and FSU’s rosters.

If you think the Big Ten has a lot of mid, wait until you see the ACC. A majority of the league is between -1 and -6 points relative to the average P4 team. That should make for a lot of 6-6 type teams. However, if we know anything about the ACC, this league has a reputation for chaos and one of these teams might break through and win the conference.

Big 12

Texas Tech is simply so far ahead of the rest of the Big 12. They have more talent on the lines, more talent in the skill positions, etc. It turns out having money to spend helps you build a good roster.

My model is lower on teams like BYU and Houston than the consensus- they got lucky in close games and were not as good as their records last year (personally, I like Houston a lot because I believe in Willie Fritz, but the model is not a fan). If you want a second tier Big 12 contender, the model is more interested in some teams with veteran QBs like Arizona and Kansas State.