Will a 9-3 Team Make the Playoff?

Rules for Playoff Selection

We're 2 years into the 12 team playoff era, so we're still learning how the playoff field is going to shape up most years. The natural instinct would be to look at seasons past as a guide, but the sport has changed so much that historical precedent does not help much. For example, whether or not a 10-2 Oregon team would've made the field or not in 2021 is not a useful indicator- Oregon played in a Pac-12 that doesn't exist anymore.

Based on two years of precedent, we have established some rules for playoff selection:

(1) 10-2 Big Ten or SEC teams are in good shape for an at-large bid. The only one to miss so far was 2025 Vanderbilt, but that's because there were too many 10-2 Big Ten and SEC teams to fit everyone in (so of course, we had to leave out Vanderbilt, since they have the least brand recognition).

(2) 10-2 ACC and Big 12 teams are in bad shape for an at-large bid. The only one to make it so far was 2025 Miami, and that was a weird circumstance with their head-to-head win over Notre Dame. 2024 BYU was never seriously considered at 10-2 and neither was 2025 Utah.

(3) The committee is quite reluctant to rank a 9-3 Big Ten or SEC team ahead of a 10-2 one. In general, the committee ranks by record a lot: they're also hesitant to put a 10-2 team Big Ten or SEC team ahead of an 11-1 team.

(4) Losing conference championship games is OK. SMU was on the bubble in 2024 but survived a loss to Clemson. Alabama arguably should've dropped out in 2025 but did not after getting thumped by Georgia.

Forecasting this year's Playoff

Based on these rules, let's try to predict what the 2026 playoff is going to look like. To be clear, I don't mean "what teams are going to make the playoff", but rather "what kinds of teams are going to make the playoff". You'll see what I mean. I've used my ratings to simulate the season 10,000 times, and based on those simulations have arrived on the following:

The SEC is expected to produce 0.5 12-0 teams, 1.1 11-1 teams and 1.6 10-2 teams. Add that all up, and we expect 3.2 teams to finish 10-2 or better. They should be in good shape for a bid.

The Big Ten is expected to produce 0.6 12-0 teams, 1.2 11-1 teams and 1.8 10-2 teams. Add that all up, and we expect 3.6 teams to finish 10-2 or better. They should be in good shape for a bid (I'm a little bit less certain here than I am for a 10-2 SEC team, but let's hold off on that for now).

Notre Dame has a 40% chance at 12-0, and a 30% chance at 11-1. They'd be a lock in either scenario- so let's say they produce 0.7 bids (and this doesn't even include the reasonable outcome of them getting in at 10-2).

The ACC and Big 12 are each expected to produce 0.3 12-0 teams and 1.0 11-1 teams. The ACC and Big 12 winners get auto-bids. I think that a 12-0 ACC/Big 12 team that loses in the conference title game is a lock, and an 11-1 ACC/Big 12 team that loses in the conference title game has a chance (2024 SMU made it in, 2025 BYU did not). I think a reasonable assumption is to assume we get 3.0 playoff teams between the ACC and Big 12 combined.

So, if we add it all up, we get:

3.6 bids for 10-2 or better Big Ten teams 

3.2 bids for 10-2 or better SEC teams 

3 bids for the ACC and Big 12 combined

0.7 bids for Notre Dame

1 bid for the best G6 team

That sums to 11.5 bids- leaving 0.5 bids for everyone else. "Everyone else" is likely to mean say, a 9-3 Texas, or a 10-2 Notre Dame, or a 10-2 Miami that misses the ACC title game, etc.

So will a 9-3 team get in?

I think it's about a coin flip. Note that my scenario above generates 11.5 teams who should have “playoff worthy” resumes. That’s just an estimate though- it might end up being 9 teams (in which case we have space for a 9-3 team or two), and it might end up being 14 teams (in which case we have to leave some teams out).

Last year, we had 6 SEC teams go 10-2 or better in the regular season (Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama and Vanderbilt), and 3 in the Big Ten (Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon). That was a lot- my simulations indicate we should expect 6.8 such teams this year. Indeed, we saw down the stretch that a lot of these SEC teams kept winning games they very well could've lost- Alabama, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas A&M all won a lot of close games down the stretch.

It's just as likely that we have a chaos scenario where we don't generate enough 10-2 teams and the SEC and Big Ten eat themselves alive.

If I had to pick, I think that the most likely playoff field for this season looks something like this:

1. 13-0 SEC champion

2. 13-0 Big Ten champion

3. 11-1 Notre Dame

4. 11-2 SEC title game loser

5. 11-2 Big Ten title game loser

6. 12-1 ACC champion

7. 12-1 Big 12 champion

8. 10-2 SEC team

9. 10-2 Big Ten team

10. 10-2 Big Ten team

11. 11-2 ACC title game loser

12. Best G6 team