College Football Ratings Week 8 2023
Penn State has been a full step below Michigan and Ohio State for a few years, and Saturday was their chance to change that. They did nothing of the sort, looking hapless offensively against Ohio State. Out west, USC picked up their second loss of the season and Washington looked very shaky against Arizona State- I still think the most likely scenario is an Oregon/Washington rematch in Vegas in December.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Georgia
LSU (+2)
Oregon (+2)
Washington (-2)
Texas (-2)
Alabama
Penn State
Texas A&M (+1)
Florida State (+1)
Notre Dame (+1)
Oklahoma (-3)
Tennessee (+1)
Clemson (-1)
Miami
Kansas State (+5)
Oregon State (-1)
Louisville (-1)
Missouri (+3)
USC (-1)
Arizona (-1)
North Carolina (-4)
Ole Miss (+3)
Wisconsin (-1)
Moving Up
Oklahoma and Texas are the clear top teams in the Big 12 but Kansas State has established themselves firmly in the #3 spot. They continue to operate a 2 QB system flawlessly and destroyed TCU this week- a big trip to Austin awaits in two weeks. South Alabama picked up a strange loss to Central Michigan but now looks like one of the best teams in the G5 after back to back wins by 48 and 52. I thought that Tony Elliot might not survive the season at Virginia but they got their biggest win in years, knocking off North Carolina as a three touchdown underdog.
Moving Down
Michigan State has fallen short of even my pessimistic forecast for them. They were destroyed 49-0 at home by Michigan and may not win a Big Ten game this year. Army was blanked 62-0 by LSU and will have their first losing record in five years. East Carolina might be the most disappointing team in FBS, the Pirates are winless against FBS competition and have fallen tremendously since the Lincoln Riley days.
College Football Picks Week 8 2023
Arizona continues to be my money team this year with their second no doubt cover in a row. The Wildcats covered +8 by 46 points in a blowout victory over Washington State. TCU also covered easily, but unfortunately I lost betting against Iowa for the second week in a row.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Total: -6.88 units
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Wake Forest all season- I faded them against Old Dominion (where they almost lost outright) and also against Georgia Tech. I’m continuing to sell them here- their offense is just simply not the same without Sam Hartman behind center. Pitt handed Louisville their first loss last week, which is right in line with the standard Pitt season of losing to bad teams and beating good teams.
Pittsburgh +1 -110 (3 units)
South Florida @ UConn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Longtime readers will know how much I love betting on UConn, often to my own detriment. This week will be no different- the Huskies have shown a pulse with a win over Rice and a one point loss to Utah State. South Florida has been on a rolller coaster this season- they were supposed to be awful, looked decent in September, and then the bottom has fallen back out in the last few weeks. I think these teams are close to even so I like UConn here.
UConn +2.5 -110 (2 units)
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
The MAC is a funny conference- there is no league in the country with more parity. At the start of the season it can be a challenge to separate the good teams from the bad. Now that the dust has settled a bit it’s clear that Northern Illinois is a contender- they beat MAC favorite Ohio last week. Chris Creighton has done an outstanding job in his tenure in Ypsilanti but this is not one of his better teams- they almost lost to UMass. UConn wasn’t enough for me- I’m picking another Husky team in this matchup.
Northern Illinois -12 -110 (1 unit)
Texas @ Houston (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
I circled this game on my calendar in the preseason as one to watch. Texas fans are irate at the prospect of having to travel to face a Houston program that they view as far beneath them. Unfortunately Texas has significantly overperformed expectations while Houston has underperformed, pushing this to a three touchdown spread. I do think the line is a little big though- Houston can really put up some points as you’d expect from a Dana Holgorsen offense.
Houston +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 7 2023
We’re roughly halfway through the season and we’re down to 11 unbeatens- 8 from the Power Five and 3 mid majors. No team has a greater than 50/50 shot at making it to 12-0, but the most likely case is that 2 teams make it there. I will take a wild guess and say that Michigan and Air Force are our two lucky teams who make it to 12-0.
Top 25
Numbers in parentheses indicate (a) ranking change from last week and (b) a team’s current betting odds of making the playoff.
Michigan (0, -155)
Ohio State (+1, +170)
Georgia (-1, -195)
Washington (+1, +125)
Texas (-1, +240)
LSU (+2, +1800)
Oregon (-1, +500)
Alabama (-1, +400)
Penn State (+6, +250)
Oklahoma (-1, +160)
Texas A&M (0)
Florida State (-2, -150)
Notre Dame (0, +2500)
Clemson (0)
Tennessee (-3, +2200)
Miami (+2)
Oregon State (+3, +1400)
Louisville (-2)
North Carolina (-2, +750)
USC (-1, +900)
Arizona (+7)
Kansas State (+8)
Missouri (+3)
Wisconsin (-3)
Utah (+2)
Washington won an all time classic against Oregon. Given how close the game was, they don’t move much in my ratings, but they do make a massive jump in playoff odds from +250 to +125. I have been lower than most on Penn State for most of the season but they shot up my ratings after evaporating UMass. Oregon State continued their solid season with a win over UCLA and has a good chance at their first major bowl bid in twenty years.
Moving Up
Unlike most, I had James Madison as the best team in the Sun Belt in the preseason but they have surpassed even my expectations. The Dukes beat a good Georgia Southern team by 28 and are neck and neck with Air Force and Tulane for the best team in the Group of Five. Vanderbilt was a 30 point underdog against Georgia and played the Bulldogs much closer than anyone could have expected. I’ve bet against Iowa each of the last two weeks but have been punished for it and the Hawkeyes have entered my top 40.
Moving Down
Unfortunately for those who follow my picks, the bottom might have fallen out for UMass as they lost 63-0 to Penn State. They have two more realistic chances at wins against Merrimack and UConn in November. South Florida has been on a roller coaster this year- they were the biggest surprise team of September before coming crashing down to earth with blowout losses to UAB and FAU, in games that were supposed to be coin flips. Washington State lost by 38 at home to Arizona and likely won’t sniff the top 25 for the rest of the season.
College Football Picks Week 7 2023
I broke even last week but it could have been a bit better. Both of my winners (Arizona and Texas Tech) covered by multiple touchdowns while my losers (Purdue and Texas A&M) both had real shots to cover. I also got my first preseason bet right as Texas A&M covered the +8.5 lookahead line I bet in August even as they failed to cover the +2.5 line I bet last week.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Total: -7.43 units
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Iowa’s offense is so bad it defies logic. This was the case even before starting QB Cade McNamara went down with a season ending injury, but has been magnified since then- backup QB went 6/21 for 110 yards last weke. This game is going to be a total slugfest with bad weather- the total is in the mid 30s. I think that Wisconsin is a clear play here- their offense has improved significantly since their early loss to Washington State and they are multiple touchdowns better than a one dimensional Iowa squad.
Wisconsin -10 -110 (3 units)
Arizona @ Washington State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I have been all over the Arizona train for the last two weeks and am continuing it here. Backup QB Noah Fifita has started the last two and has been a revelation, throwing for 8 TDs and 2 INTs against Washington and USC. The Wildcats are up to the 30s in my ratings, their highest perch in half a decade. Washington State has always been a bit worse than their AP ranking would suggest and these teams are pretty even in my book.
Arizona +8 -110 (2 units)
BYU @ TCU (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Most of the games I bet, I have a pretty good guess for what the Vegas line will be and have an inkling in advance what the Vegas line will be. This was not one of those games- I was sure this line was going to be in the double digits and was shocked to see it at 5. TCU had every single bounce go their way last year and this year has seen the other side of close game variance, BYU is a decent team but TCU is not far outside my top 25.
TCU -5 -110 (2 units)
Akron @ Central Michigan (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I highlighted Central Michigan in my ratings post this week as a team on the downswing- the Chippewas must be the worst 3-3 team in the country, they just got evaporated by a bad Buffalo team. I’ve been bullish on Akron all year and they are really unlucky to only have 1 win, most notably they lost a 4OT game to Indiana. CMU deserves to be viewed as a bottom tier MAC team.
Akron +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
San Jose State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
New Mexico is really bad- definitely among the bottom 10 teams in FBS, if not the bottom 5. However, I don’t really think San Jose State should be a touchdown road favorite over almost any FBS team. The Spartans have fallen off significantly since their miracle 2020 season and are now a bottom 25 team in FBS.
New Mexico +8 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 6 2023
The Red River Rivalry never disappoints and this year’s game was no exception. The middle of the Big 12 is so weak that a Texas/Oklahoma rematch in the conference title game is more likely than not- there is not a single other team from the conference in my top 25.
Top 25
Michigan
Georgia
Ohio State (+1)
Texas (-1)
Washington
Oregon
Alabama (+4)
LSU (+1)
Oklahoma (+4)
Florida State
Texas A&M (-3)
Tennessee (+2)
Notre Dame (-6)
Clemson (-2)
Penn State
Louisville (+4)
North Carolina (+2)
Miami (-2)
USC (-2)
Oregon State (-2)
Wisconsin (+4)
UCLA
Duke
Florida (+3)
Ole Miss (-1)
Oklahoma moves into the top 10 for the first time all season. I was low on the Sooners in the preseason- I had them 24th, which was lower than pretty much anyone else. I have to eat some crow on that now as their path to the playoff is crystal clear. Louisville got a humongous win against Notre Dame to move to their highest ranking of the year. The ACC schedule is a bit of a mess as the 3 undefeated teams (Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina) all don’t play each other so there are no obvious losses for any of the 3- the Cardinals have a real shot at a 10 or 11 win season. Wisconsin has looked quite solid since their loss to Washington State and has established themselves as the clear favorites in the BIg Ten West ahead of a visit from Iowa this Saturday.
Moving Up
Few teams have had a more confusing season than Northern Illinois. The Huskies own a P5 win versus Boston College and a loss to FCS Southern Illinois. They were my biggest risers this week after a 41 point road win over Akron. Kansas has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, running for for 399 yards on 51 carries against a good UCF team- the Jayhawks should beat Oklahoma State this week to set up a ranked matchup against Oklahoma in two weeks. Michigan continues to evaporate bad teams (Minnesota was this week’s victim) and JJ McCarthy’s rate stats remain unbelievable.
Moving Down
South Florida was one of the biggest risers in September- their recent win over Navy was their first road win since 2019. They fell back down to earth hard this week with a 21 point loss to a bad UAB team. Kentucky looked like they might be a 9-3 type team but were uncompetitive from the first snap against Georgia and have fallen back to 7-5 type territory. Questions are circling in Mount Pleasant around the future for Jim McElwain as Central Michigan has taken the Chippewas into the bottom 10 of my ratings.
College Football Picks Week 6 2023
Last week was my best of the season, largely thanks to West Virginia. The Mountaineers cashed as a +370 underdog, winning by 3 thanks to blocking two TCU field goals in the 4th quarter. My season turned around at this time last year so hopefully this is the beginning of a nice winning streak.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Total: -9.07 units
Arizona @ USC (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
Arizona was awful not long ago- they went a combined 1-16 in 2020 and 2021. They’ve improved tremendously in the last two years and gave Washington a real game last week even with starting QB Jayden de Laura hurt. Their offense will be capable with or without de Laura and as we saw last week against Colorado, the USC defense is a complete sieve. Arizona is a top 40 team in the country and should not be getting three touchdowns here.
Arizona +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Purdue @ Iowa (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Iowa has leaned even further into their identity this year- their defense and special teams remain excellent while their offense is horrible. Starting QB Cade McNamara looks to be out for the year which only compounds their offensive struggles, and they looked awful after he left the game against Michigan State. Purdue is a lot better than their 2-3 record would indicate and they should be road favorites here.
Purdue +2.5 -110 (3 units)
Alabama @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Loyal readers will remember that I bet Texas A&M +8.5 in this matchup in the preseason. That’s obviously great value now, but I’ll still put an extra unit on the Aggies at +2.5. I think they could be the best team in the SEC West- they’re one of a few teams in the country that has the level of athletes that Alabama does, and their quarterbacking situation is better than I feared. Alabama’s problems are well documented and I think they should be small underdogs here.
Texas A&M +2.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech @ Baylor (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
Baylor pulled off one of the greatest comebacks you’ll ever see against UCF last week, as they won after being down 28 points in the 3rd quarter. I do have some pretty fundamental questions about the Bears, if you exclude the last one and a half quarters against UCF their offense has been horrid this year. Texas Tech is easily the best 2-3 team in the nation and has been extremely unlucky this year.
Texas Tech +1 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 5 2023
Week 5 was light on big upsets but heavy on entertaining games. Ole Miss/LSU took the cake for me- the two teams combined for 1,343 yards, severely damaging LSU’s SEC title hopes.
Michigan (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Texas (+2)
Ohio State (-1)
Washington (-1)
Oregon (+1)
Notre Dame (-1)
Texas A&M (+4)
LSU (+1)
Florida State (-1)
Alabama (+2)
Clemson (-1)
Oklahoma (+1)
Tennessee (+1)
Penn State (+1)
Miami (+1)
USC (-9)
Oregon State (+8)
North Carolina (-1)
Louisville (+2)
Kentucky (+9)
UCLA (+1)
Duke (+1)
Ole Miss (-3)
Wisconsin
Michigan claims the top spot in my ratings for the first time ever. The Wolverines’ defense has been outstanding. They haven’t played an offense worth a damn yet, but they’ve allowed 30 points through 5 games. Unfortunately the Big Ten is so shallow this year that they won’t play a top 50 team until November. I thought Texas A&M would be a disaster without Connor Weigman but they really impressed me against Arkansas and they’ll be SEC West favorites if they beat Alabama this weekend.
Moving Up
I was a week early on Bowling Green- I bet on the Falcons last week against Ohio, this was the week they broke out as they shocked Georgia Tech as a three touchdown underdog. Colorado looked very impressive in a loss to USC, I still have serious questions about their line play but they showed real grit to nearly come back from three scores down. Purdue dominated Illinois in a game that I thought would be a coin flip, they might be the second best team in the Big Ten West despite being 2-3.
Moving Down
Nebraska was ground into a fine paste by Michigan. I was hopeful that their offense would be better without Jeff Sims but it has been paleolithic at best so far this season. San Diego State is off to a shocking 1-4 start and Air Force ran for 287 yards against them this week. UMass has cemented themselves as one of the worst teams in FBS after allowing 50 points at home to a moribund Arkansas State team.
College Football Picks Week 5 2023
Last week was another disaster as neither FIU nor Bowling Green were close to covering. We march on to week 5 looking to turn things around.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Total: -15.28 units
West Virginia @ TCU (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
It was a shock when West Virginia did not fire Neal Brown last year, but that decision has paid off as the Mountaineers are off to a 3-1 start. The defense has been a particular highlight, holding the hyped Texas Tech offense to 13 points last week. TCU has looked good since their season opening loss to Colorado and is just outside my top 25 right now. The Horned Frogs are decent, but I think West Virginia might be the most underrated team in the country and like the Mountaineers here.
West Virginia +12 -110 (2 units)
West Virginia ML +370 (1 unit)
Arkansas State @ UMass (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
These teams are both among the ten worst in FBS. I expected to say that about UMass but not about Arkansas State- to call the Red Wolves’ defense a sieve would be an insult to sieves. They did pull off a shock win against Southern Miss last week but still allowed a frightening 449 yards. Loyal readers who bet my preseason bets have been following along with UMass all season- the Minutemen are better than they record as they outgained Eastern Michigan and New Mexico each of the last two weeks and lost both.
UMass -1 -110 (2 units)
Utah State @ Connecticut (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Utah State all season and still will continue to do so here. The Aggies can’t stop a nosebleed- the only FBS team to not go for 400 yards against them this season is the anemic Iowa offense. They look to be one of the worst teams in a bad Mountain West. Connecticut sucks too, but Utah State should not be a 6 point road favorite over any FBS team.
UConn +6 -110 (2 units)
Georgia @ Auburn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Georgia has fallen a good bit in my ratings since the preseason as their offense looks to have taken a pretty significant step back. New QB Carson Beck has been simply OK, and the Dawgs have had the most success running the ball between the tackles. That will be tough against a stout Auburn front seven. I was amazed that Michigan State transfer Payton Throne landed as an SEC quarterback- and it shows, as Auburn’s offense looks to be from the Paleolithic Era. However their defense is one of the best in the sport and they can keep this game within two touchdowns.
Auburn +14.5 -115 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 4 2023
This fall is shaping up to be quite a bit different than recent college football seasons. In recent years there has been a pretty significant gap between the top few teams and everyone else- Georgia was two touchdowns better than the #10 team for most of last year. This year, the top 10 is much more even and we have a much better chance of a surprise national champion.
Top 25
Georgia
Michigan (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Washington (+1)
Texas (+5)
Notre Dame
Oregon (+5)
USC (-4)
Florida State (-1)
LSU (-4)
Clemson (-2)
Texas A&M (+4)
Alabama (-2)
Oklahoma (-1)
Tennessee (-1)
Penn State (-1)
Miami
North Carolina (+1)
Florida (-1)
Utah (+4)
Ole Miss (+2)
Louisville (+7)
UCLA (-1)
Duke (+4)
Wisconsin (+2)
Oregon was extremely impressive in their domination of Colorado, the 35-0 halftime score doesn’t even express the full extent of their dominance. The Ducks travel to Eugene in two weeks for what will be the most anticipated Pac-12 game in years. Florida State is now -150 to make the playoff after their win over Clemson. Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk though as they’re yet to face 3 of my top 25 teams (Duke, Miami and Florida). Louisville has been a pleasant surprise in Jeff Brohm’s first season and gets a big visit from Notre Dame next weekend.
Moving Up
Ohio looks to have reclaimed their spot as one of the best teams in the MAC as they thrashed Bowling Green. An Ohio/Toledo rematch looks likely in the MAC title game as the Bobcats for their elusive first MAC title since 1968. Another team I bet against who looked great was Liberty, the Flames are 4-0 and will be favored in every remaining game. Texas A&M completely shut down Auburn, holding the Tigers to 56 yards passing. Unfortunately QB Connor Weigman looks to be done for the year but backup Max Johnson looked quite good in relief.
Moving Down
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Colorado was my biggest loser this week. The Buffaloes’ poor line came back to bite them this week as Shedeur Sanders had no time in the pocket and their fairytale season came screeching to a halt. No team has underperformed preseason expectations more than Baylor who looked terrible against Texas- I think the calls for Dave Aranda’s job are warranted. Boston College looked competent against Florida State but that all went out the window in a 56-28 thrashing at the hands of Louisville.
College Football Picks Week 4 2023
I almost had a big week, as Old Dominion ML +440 nearly cashed. The Monarchs led by 17 in the second quarter and got to -500 on the live line at one point. However, they couldn’t do anything on offense in the second half and ultimately lost by 3.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Total: -9.97 units
Liberty @ FIU (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
FIU has been very good to me this year and I am continuing to ride the Golden Panthers train. I now see them as a top 100 team which is quite an accomplishment considering how much of a disaster this program was when Butch Davis left at the end of 2021. People are acting as if Liberty is far and away better than every other team in CUSA- they are the best team in the league but the gap is not as big as others might think. I think FIU has a chance at this upset.
FIU +10 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +320 (1 unit)
Ohio @ Bowling Green (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ohio generated a lot of headlines with their 10-7 win over Iowa State last weekend. Ohio’s defense is quite good, but I think this result speaks more as to Iowa State’s offensive ineptitude than anything else. Bowling Green is a top 100 team that should not be a 13 point home dog against any conference opponent. The Falcons are a potential bowl team that will hang tough here.
Bowling Green +13 -110 (2 units)
Bowling Green ML +400 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
I am continuing to bet against Wake Forest- the Demon Deacons are just not the same team without Sam Hartman. They looked horrible last week against Old Dominion and I think they’re the most overrated team in the Power Five. Unfortunately I am really late to this one- this line opened Georgia Tech +8 and I was all over the Yellow Jackets there, I still like them here but not for as big a play.
Georgia Tech +4 -112 (2 units)
Arizona @ Stanford (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
My model is very high on Arizona- I have the Wildcats as a top 40 team, a good 10-20 spots above any other computer system I’ve seen. I really liked Stanford in the preseason but they’ve been a big disappointment this year and the over I bet on their win total isn’t looking so hot anymore. This is another big missed opportunity as it would’ve been a bigger play at Arizona -8, which is where this opened, but I still like the ‘Cats here.
Arizona -11.5 -110 (1 unit)
FIU ML/Bowling Green ML +2000 (0.1 units)
College Football Ratings Week 3 2023
Three weeks into the season, the college football landscape looks quite different than it has recently. There don’t really seem to be any dominant teams this year- last year the Georgia/Ohio State/Michigan trio was far better than anyone else. The same teams occupy the top of my ratings this year, but the gap between them and the rest of the top 10 has closed considerably.
Top 25
The odds shown next to the top 15 teams indicate their current betting odds to make the playoff. Numbers in parenthesis indicate a team’s change in ranking from last week.
Georgia -240
Ohio State +170
Michigan -130
USC +250 (+3)
Washington +400 (+9)
LSU +600 (+6)
Notre Dame +400 (-2)
Florida State +115 (-4)
Clemson +900 (+2)
Texas +130 (-2)
Alabama +750 (-5)
Oregon +450 (-3)
Oklahoma +500 (+2)
Tennessee +2500 (-4)
Penn State +340 (-2)
Texas A&M (+2)
Miami (+2)
Florida (+3)
North Carolina (+3)
Oregon State (+2)
Auburn (-5)
UCLA (+3)
Ole Miss (-6)
Utah (-4)
Kansas State (-2)
Washington was extremely impressive in their win over Michigan State. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 473 yards in a hyper efficient performance and looks to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. I was honestly more concerned by Alabama this week than I was in their loss to Texas and the oddsmakers agree as they slipped from +500 to +750 to make the playoff. Public opinion on the SEC has faded a bit but my ratings don’t fully agree with 8 SEC teams in the top 25, including less heralded squads like Texas A&M and Auburn.
Moving Up
Boston College nearly pulled off the upset of the year, falling 31-29 to Florida State in a game that would’ve gone to OT if they could’ve made an extra point. The Eagles are my biggest mover this week despite the loss as they outperformed expectations by four touchdowns. Miami (OH) beat local rival Cincinnati for the first time in over a decade and looks to be one of the best teams in the MAC. LSU went on the road and dominated a top 40 MississippI State team. The Tigers now look to be the favorites in the SEC West.
Moving Down
For the second year in a row, Michigan State got run off the field by Washington- the Spartans were trailing 28-0 after 5 drives. It looks like it might be Dana Holgorsen’s last year in Houston as the Cougars followed up a loss to Rice with a blowout loss to TCU. Arizona State is making a run at being the worst team in the Power Five as the Sun Devils committed 8 turnovers (!) in a loss to Fresno State.
College Football Picks Week 3 2023
FIU saved me from another disaster last week, I lost every pick except them. The Golden Panthers have been my most profitable team this year, covering and nearly winning outright in week 0 before winning as a +390 dog last week. I have a bit of a smaller card this week, hopefully I’ll see more opportunities once conference play starts up later in September.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Total: -9.38 units
Wake Forest @ Old Dominion (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Wake Forest all season- Sam Hartman was one of the best quarterbacks in college football last year and they’re just not the same team without him. Old Dominion really impressed me last week against Louisiana, and the Monarchs have upset ACC teams at home in the past (loyal readers may remember I had ODU ML last year against Virginia Tech). I think they have a chance to do so again here against a mediocre Wake Forest squad.
Old Dominion +14 -112 (3 units)
Old Dominion ML +440 (1 unit)
Penn State @ Illinois (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’m a lot lower on Penn State than other projection systems- I have the Nittany Lions down at 13th while SP+ has them at 4th. I’m also higher on Illinois than most people- I think the Illini grade out as a top half team in the Big Ten and a solid contender for the Big Ten West. It should be no surprise then that I like Illinois here- I view their loss to Kansas last week more as Jalon Daniels’ brilliance than a flaw in the normally sound Illini defense. They’ve had Penn State’s number recently and I think they have a real chance at pulling the first huge upset of the season in the Big Ten.
Illinois +14 +100 (3 units)
Illinois ML +430 (1 unit)
James Madison @ Troy (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I bet against Troy in my preseason bets and am continuing to do so here. James Madison is a top 10 Group of Five team in the country and I think actually underperformed last weekend in a road win against Virginia. Troy was not competitive in a loss against a solid Kansas State team. I think JMU is the better team and a win for the Dukes here would also help my Troy under 8 wins ticket.
James Madison +2 -110 (1 unit)
Northwestern @ Duke (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
After Northwestern got run off the field by Rutgers in week 1 I was worried they might go 0-12. They were a pick’em last week at home against UTEP but were one of the surprises of the week, winning 38-7. They lost a lot of players to the portal when Pat Fitzgerald was let go in July but I think the market may have overreacted a bit, they’re certainly not a good team, but Duke does not have the talent on their roster to be a three score favorite against almost any power conference team.
Northwestern +18 -110 (1 unit)
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
It’s great that these two teams are playing regularly again, the Backyard Brawl is one of the great college football rivalries that has been cut short by realignment. Pitt was an abject disaster last week against Cincinnati as it appears Pat Narduzzi has sent his offense back to the pre-Kenny Pickett stone age. West Virginia was more competitive than the score would suggest against Penn State and may actually get to a bowl game to save Neal Brown’s job.
West Virginia +1 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 2 2023
Week 2 was headlined by Texas’ huge win over Alabama but there were lots of fun games elsewhere on the schedule. I was particularly impressed with Miami, who overcame a big early deficit to stomp Texas A&M. The Hurricanes will easily make it to mid-October undefeated and look primed for their best season in half a decade.
Top 25
The betting odds shown next to the top 15 teams indicate their current betting odds to make the playoff.
Georgia -250
Ohio State +190
Michigan -130 (+1)
Florida State +115 (-1)
Notre Dame +390 (+2)
Alabama +500 (-1)
USC +240 (+7)
Texas +120
Oregon +450 (+3)
Tennessee +750 (-4)
Clemson +1000 (-1)
LSU +700 (-3)
Penn State +330
Washington +500 (+3)
Oklahoma +650 (+1)
Auburn (+3)
Ole Miss (+3)
Texas A&M (-7)
Miami (+7)
Utah (-5)
Florida (+1)
Oregon State (+1)
Kansas State (-2)
North Carolina (-6)
UCLA (+13)
Notre Dame looks like a real contender to me. The Irish went on the road and beat a decent NC State by three scores. Ohio State comes to South Bend in two weeks and I make the Buckeyes only a 3 point favorite in that matchup, it would’ve been nearly a double digit spread in the preseason. I was a big seller of USC in the preseason but the Trojans flew up my ratings after their demolition of Stanford and are now my favorites to win the Pac-12. Elsewhere in Los Angeles I have been very impressed by UCLA through two weeks, they’ve gone from the 40s to the 20s in my rankings.
Moving Up
A lot of people thought Dino Babers was on the hot seat at Syracuse but the early returns have been quite impressive, beating Colgate and Western Michigan by a combined 113-7. A toss-up game at Purdue and a home game at Army are next before the always fun Clemson/Syracuse game. I’ve been bullish on FIU all year but they’ve surpassed even my expectations and have a shot at a bowl game. Cincinnati was supposed to be the worst team in the Big 12 but shut down longtime rival Pitt over the weekend and will challenge for a bowl in Scott Satterfield’s first year at the helm.
Moving Down
Nevada is incomprehensibly bad. Jay Norvell took every good player on the roster with him to Colorado State two years ago and they still haven’t recovered, they were trounced 33-6 by FCS Idaho this weekend. The worst team in the Power Five is either Boston College or Stanford. The Eagles squeaked by Holy Cross while the Cardinal got evaporated by Caleb Williams and the USC offense.
College Football Picks Week 2 2023
Week 1 was a disaster. I hit on UConn but lost on all my other picks. The clear low point was Baylor -27.5 who managed to lose outright. The good news is that week 1 was even worse last year (-12.86 units) and I managed to come back to finish the year in the black.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1 -7.37 units
Season Total: -6.55 units
North Texas @ FIU (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
FIU was kind to me in week 0 and I’m betting on them once again. The Golden Panthers have no shortage of problems, as this is a team that only scored 14 points against Maine last week. However I do think their roster is more talented than the rest of the FBS doldrums as they’ve brought in some Power Five transfers. North Texas’ defense looked positively awful against Cal last week and even a weak FIU attack should be able to score on them.
FIU +12 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +390 (0.5 units)
Nebraska @ Colorado (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
My model had no clue what to make of Colorado in the preseason, as there’s really no precedent for a team completely rebuilding out of the portal the way the Buffs did. I was as surprised as anybody to see them beat TCU last week, but I think this line is a bit of an overreaction. Nebraska really should have won last week and actually moved up in my ratings after their loss to Minnesota. This line was Nebraska -5 or so in the preseason- while Colorado impressed last week, I don’t think it’s justified to move 8 points on the back of one game.
Nebraska +3 -115 (2 units)
Texas State @ UTSA (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I bet against Texas State last week and we all saw how well that went. I’m back to do it again, but my reasoning is a bit different this time. The logic is similar to the Colorado game- I think people overreact to individual data points early in the season. I think Texas State is a full 9 points better than I did a week ago but that doesn’t justify this price- UTSA has one of the most talented rosters than Texas State and has better players at every position group. The Roadrunners should roll here.
UTSA -14 -110 (2 units)
New Mexico State @ Liberty (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
This was a fantastic matchup last year as New Mexico State beat Liberty outright as a three touchdown underdog. I like the Aggies once again here- I was a seller of Liberty in the preseason and continue to be so here. They did nothing to change my mind in week 1 with a narrow win over a bad Bowling Green team. New Mexico State is much better than they were a few years ago and can hang with the Flames.
New Mexico State +9.5 -105 (1 unit)
New Mexico State ML +300 (0.5 units)
Miami (OH) @ UMass (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I was all over UMass over 2 wins in the preseason. We’re halfway there, as the Minutemen knocked off New Mexico State as a 7 point underdog in week 0. I think they have a great chance to pick up their second win here. Miami was one of the worst bowl teams in recent memory last year and replaces a lot of their offense from last year’s team. They looked positively awful in week 1 and I like a small play on UMass.
UMass +6.5 -108 (1 unit)
New Mexico State ML/FIU ML +1860
College Football Ratings Week 1 2023
Week 1 is in the books and it was a fun one. I viewed the ACC as a tossup between Florida State and Clemson in the preseason but that shifted massively as Florida State dominated LSU and Clemson lost to Duke. The Seminoles are now even money to win the conference title, up from +225 or so before week 1.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Florida State (+4)
Michigan
Alabama (-2)
Tennessee (+5)
Notre Dame (+5)
Texas (-2)
LSU (-4)
Clemson (-2)
Texas A&M (-1)
Oregon (+2)
Penn State (-4)
USC (+4)
Utah (-2)
Oklahoma (+8)
Washington (+4)
North Carolina (+8)
Auburn (-3)
Ole Miss (-5)
Kansas State (-1)
Florida (+3)
Oregon State (+7)
Wisconsin (-5)
Mississippi State (-8)
LSU fell four spots after their loss to Florida State. The Tigers were viewed as co-favorites to win the SEC West in the preseason but now are only looking like 3 point favorites or so against Mississippi State next weekend. Oklahoma could not have looked better against Arkansas State, throwing for 12 yards per attempt in a dominating 73-0. The Sooners now look like Texas’ biggest competition in the Big 12.
Moving Up
In these sections, the number after a team’s name indicates by how much their rating changed- i.e. a +7 indicates that I think this team is 7 points better than I did a week ago.
Texas State (+9.2) was unquestionably the biggest surprise of week 1. I was a huge seller of the Bobcats in the preseason, thinking they were one of the worst teams in FBS. They responded with their biggest win in program history, upsetting Baylor on the road. Colorado (+6.3) stole the headlines with their win over TCU- I still think the Buffaloes have some serious problems on the lines but their skill position talent is undeniable. Utah State (+5.4) outgained Iowa in a loss and if not for a few missed fourth downs could have won outright.
Moving Down
Nevada (-5.2) allowed USC to score 66 points and rack up 12 yards per play, which is generally not a recipe for success. Arkansas State (-4.8) was destroyed by Oklahoma and it’s looking like it could be Butch Jones’ last year in charge of the Red Wolves. Virginia (-3.8) underperformed my low expectations against Tennessee and could be headed for one of their worst seasons in recent memory.
College Football Picks Week 1 2023
The season got off to a nice start in week 0 as FIU +11.5 covered easily and the ML almost hit as well, Louisiana Tech scored a late touchdown to win the game. In even better news, my UMass Over 2 wins bet is marking very well after they soundly beat New Mexico State.
Preseason: +0.82 units
North Carolina State @ Connecticut (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
This is a bit of a weird game as UConn has not hosted many Power Five teams since they became an independent a few years ago. NC State was a bit of a disappointment last year with an 8-5 season after starting the year in the top 15. Now star QB Devin Leary has departed for Kentucky and the Wolfpack will take a big step back this year. UConn, on the other hand, was one of the stories of college football last year with a shocking bowl season and I like them to keep the momentum up this year.
Connecticut +14.5 -110 (3 units)
Connecticut ML +525 (0.5 units)
South Florida @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
South Florida has gone through some lean years recently as they have only one win over an FBS team in the last 3 years. First year HC Alex Golesh steps into a much better situation with Power Five transfers on both sides of the ball and I think they have a 50/50 shot at a bowl this year. I’m pretty down on Western Kentucky this year as their front seven in particular will take a big step back from last year.
South Florida +11.5 -110 (3 units)
South Florida ML +350 (0.5 units)
Texas State @ Baylor (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Texas State is undergoing a complete rehaul as former coach Jake Spavital tried to “get rich quick” and gambled on a bunch of junior college players without building for the future. I like the long term potential of this job but they might have the worst roster in FBS right now. I’m a bit bullish on Baylor this year and think they have a puncher’s chance at the Big 12 title game and they should roll here.
Baylor -27.5 -110 (2 units)
Nevada @ USC (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Nevada was in the same boat as Texas State last year as Jay Norvell left for Colorado State and took almost the whole roster with him. They’ve had a chance to rebuild now and while they’re still a sub .500 team, this line treats them as a complete joke. USC’s defense is porous and the Wolf Pack can score enough on them to stop this from being a laugher.
Nevada +38 -110 (2 units)
Washington State @ Colorado State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
This pick shouldn’t be much of a surprise given that I really like Colorado State this year. The Rams have one of the most talented rosters in the Mountain West, and given how hard it is to recruit at Washington State, the difference in talent between these two rosters is really not that large. Colorado State could make some noise this season and if they win this one they’ll have momentum going into a huge in-state clash against Deion Sanders’ Colorado in their next game.
Colorado State +11.5 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ San Jose State (Sunday, 2:30 PM Central)
San Jose State’s stadium has undergone significant renovations and they’re celebrating its completion by hosting Pac-12 foe Oregon State. The Beavers are ranked in the preseason top 25 for the first time in over a decade but shouldn’t overlook this game- the Spartans have a great quarterback in Hawai’i transfer Chevan Cordeiro and are a contender for the Mountain West title. Oregon State has a great team this year but they’re not talented enough to be such a big road favorite over a decent SJSU squad.
San Jose State +16.5 -110 (1 unit)
Connecticut ML/South Florida ML +2712 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 0 2023
We may only have a few games this weekend, but it is college football and there are a few exciting games on the schedule. My biggest bet of the season is on UMass over 2 wins so you bet I’ll be watching closely as the Minutemen have a real chance to win their opener against New Mexico State. This is just an appetizer for the main course next weekend.
FIU @ Louisiana Tech (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
This pick should be no surprise given that I’ve bet on the under on Louisiana Tech’s win total. I came close to betting the over on FIU as well- the Golden Panthers should be improved from last year’s outfit and a high school team could score points against this dreadful Louisiana Tech defense. FIU may be in a pretty rough spot for the long term but they’ve improved the roster a lot from the dreadful 2021 outfit and I think they have a shot in this game.
FIU +11.5 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +340 (1 unit)
College Football Preview: Preseason Top 25
We’re now less than a week away from college football season, which means it’s time for my preseason top 25. My model is more similar to other computer ratings than the human polls in the preseason. There’s a lot of SEC teams in the bottom end of my top 25 that my model likes given the talent levels on their roster. On the other hand, I’m lower on less talented 2022 surprise teams like Tulane and Oregon State.
Numbers in parentheses represent a team’s change in rank from my final 2022 ratings.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State (+2)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan (+3)
LSU (-2)
Texas (+2)
Florida State (+2)
Clemson (+4)
Penn State (-4)
Texas A&M (+14)
Tennessee (-5)
Notre Dame (+7)
Utah (-2)
Oregon (+4)
Ole Miss (+2)
Auburn (+16)
Mississippi State (-3)
USC (+21)
Wisconsin (+17)
Kansas State (+1)
Washington (-6)
Kentucky (+6)
Missouri (+17)
Oklahoma (+17)
Florida (+13)
Georgia opens the season pretty far ahead of the rest of the pack. I would make the Bulldogs a 5.5 point favorite against #2 Ohio State on a neutral field. My top 5 are identical to the AP Poll (albeit in a slightly different order), but things change a bit after that. I’m pretty high on Texas this year and think the Longhorns have a great shot at their first playoff. Elsewhere in the Lone Star state, Texas A&M is all the way up at #10 despite being in the 20s elsewhere thanks to their years of elite recruiting classes.
My view on the Pac-12 is quite a bit different from the consensus. I was low on USC last year and I am once again this year, no one else has them as low as I do at 18th. I make Oregon and Utah the co-favorites for the conference title, although it will be tough for any team out west to make the playoff given how deep the conference is.
College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 4
This is my final installment in my preseason bets series. Today I’ll be going through my favorite bets in the Big Ten and the SEC, in parts 1, 2 and 3 I covered the rest of the country.
Mississippi State Over 6.5 wins +145 (2 units)
Tragedy struck Mississippi State with the sudden death of HC Mike Leach last December. Zach Arnett steps into the job as a defensive-minded coach who inherits a great QB in Will Rogers. The Bulldogs have been a darling of my ratings for years, and finished last year 14th. There will be some bumps along the road this year given the scheme changes but with Rogers at the helm I still think they’ll be a top 25 outfit, and that’s enough to win seven games even in the rugged SEC West.
Alabama Under 10.5 wins -175 (2 units)
For the first time since 2015, Alabama will start the season outside the top 2 of my preseason ratings. I have the Crimson Tide all the way down at third (!) behind Georgia and Ohio State. The biggest question mark is at quarterback, where Bryce Young departs and the succession plan remains unclear. Further complicating matters is the fact that Alabama plays 4 games against my preseason top 10 and 8 games against my top 25. There’s no doubt that they’re one of the best teams in the sport, but the gap between them and the rest of the SEC has closed a bit this year.
Iowa Under 8 wins +125 (2 units)
Iowa really leaned into the bit last year, putting up one of the most unique seasons in recent memory. They had the best defense in college football and an offense so allergic to the downfield pass that it would make Bo Schembechler proud. While other teams in the Big Ten West are pivoting towards a more modern attack, Iowa is sticking to their guns and will try to muscle their way to a division championship. There’s nowhere for the offense to go but up and Cade McNamara is a big improvement on their 2022 quarterback play. However the defense will take a step back from their elite status and I don’t think Iowa can bully their way to an eight win season.
Texas A&M +8.5 -110 vs. Alabama (2 units)
There are a lot of lookahead lines available for Alabama, and I considered betting against them in several given that I’m a bit low on the Crimson Tide this year. However, I thought that this one delivered the most value. Texas A&M will be under the spotlight this year as Jimbo Fisher’s squad looks to rebound from a horrendous 5-7 season. I have the Aggies 10th in my preseason ratings, a bit higher than the consensus which has them in the teens. The 2022 squad finished 24th in my ratings despite the losing record and the talent level on the roster is in the top 5 of the sport given the years of recruiting success Fisher has had. I have A&M third in the SEC West and think they can once again take down Alabama at home like they did in 2021.
Wisconsin to win Big Ten West +105 (1 unit)
Given that I’m down on Iowa this year, it makes sense to bet on their biggest competition in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin is completely remaking themselves under new HC Luke Fickell, who has brought in pass-happy OC Phil Longo from North Carolina and a bevy of offensive transfers. My model likes what it sees in the talent on both sides of the ball here and ranks Wisconsin 18th, a bit higher than the fringe top 25 outfit they are elsewhere. Given that I don’t like Iowa this year, it also makes the Badgers the clear best team in the division.
College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 3
This is part 3 of 4 of my preseason bets series. In part 1 and part 2 of this series I went through my favorite bets in the Group of Five. Today I’ll cover my picks in the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC.
Stanford Over 3 wins +135 (4 units)
Stanford went 3-9 last year but were a bit better than that record suggests, beating Notre Dame and having some bad luck in one score games. They do lose almost everyone from that team though, including QB Tanner McKee who was drafted by the Eagles.
One of the biggest changes I made to my ratings this year is increasing the weight of recent recruiting data. No team was a bigger beneficiary of this than Stanford- the Cardinals have signed 4 top 50 classes in a row, two of them in the top 25. Even though this team is inexperienced, I think there is some talent on the roster given the number of three and four stars they have.
The schedule isn’t easy for first year head coach Troy Taylor, they will be favored only against Hawai’i and Taylor’s former school (Sacramento State). However I think they’re more talented than the rest of the bottom end of the Pac-12 and can steal a few wins in conference play.
Oklahoma Under 9.5 wins -120 (4 units)
Last year was shocking for Oklahoma- the Sooners are one of two teams in the sport who have never been bad (the other, of course, is Ohio State). Even Alabama spent the 1990s in the wilderness. Oklahoma finished last season 41st in my ratings, their lowest finish since I started keeping records in 2011. There’s enough talent on this roster that they should improve over last year’s team but this win total implies they’re a top 15 team in the country. The Sooners return an average amount of talent from last year’s team, but teams don’t often make the jump from the forties to the teens unless they’re incredibly experienced.
Kansas Over 6 wins -125 (3 units)
Kansas to make Big 12 Title Game +1200 (0.5 units)
I bet on Kansas over 2.5 wins last year and had one of the easiest cashes of my life as they started the season 5-0, even getting ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 2009. I’m not getting as cheap a price this year but I like the Jayhawks once again. I just don’t understand this price- last year’s team was legitimately good, finishing 42nd in my ratings. 17 starters return including electric QB Jalon Daniels who is my pick for 1st team all-conference. I think that the 2023 Jayhawks will be an improvement on 2022 and they should make a bowl easily.
Kansas +7 -110 vs. Oklahoma (2 units)
Considering that I’m both betting on Kansas and betting against Oklahoma, it should be no surprise that this is one of my favorite lookahead lines of the year. My numbers make Kansas a very small favorite in this game.
Houston Over 4.5 wins -140 (3 units)
Houston is one of four teams making the jump from the American to the Big 12 this season. Last year’s final record was a bit of a disappointment at 8-5, but the Cougars were better than their record, finishing 31st in my ratings. They’re projected to take a big step back this year, which makes sense given that they take a big step up in weight class and replace most of last year’s team. However, I don’t agree with this line that places them at the bottom of the Big 12- unlike some of the other new entrants to the conference, Houston has been recruiting at a Power Five level and they have the talent to make a bowl this year.
Georgia Tech Over 4.5 wins +120 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech fired Geoff Collins at mid-season last year and retained interim Brent Key after an exciting second half of the season that featured wins over Pitt and North Carolina as three touchdown underdogs. I’m optimistic about the Yellow Jackets this season- they have an exciting quarterback in 4-star Texas A&M transfer Haynes King and finally have a roster that wasn’t recruited for the flexbone. They play a lot of the bottom feeders in the ACC and I make them a favorite in 6 games this year, so I think they can make a bowl.
Utah to win the Pac-12 +600 (1 unit)
I had a Utah to win the Pac-12 ticket last year at +240 which cashed, and I’m here to do it again. The Utes are looking to threepeat as conference champions in what very well could be the last year of Pac-12 football. I see USC, Utah and Oregon as pretty evenly matched at the top of the conference which makes the Utes a bargain at +600 compared to the +190 and +300 prices of the Ducks and Trojans. Utah will play their usual brand of tough football with one of the best defenses and one of the best offensive lines in the sport and while it’s not a glamorous style of play, it is a good one.