College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 1
College football season is just a few weeks away, so it’s time for me to start putting down some preseason bets. The preseason is my favorite time to bet on college football as I’ve had some good success betting win totals in recent years. I have quite a few bets this preseason so I’ve divided my picks by conference. Today I’ll tackle Conference USA, the MAC and the Mountain West.
Utah State Under 5 wins -125 (4 units)
Utah State went 6-7 last year, losing the First Responder Bowl to Memphis. However, they only got there via smoke and mirrors- they were a bottom 15 team in my ratings and scraped out a lot of wins against the dregs of the Mountain West, going 4-9 ATS. I see no reason for them to be better this year- they only return 9 starters and the core recruiting classes that make up this roster rank outside the top 100. The Aggies also play the toughest schedule in the conference, facing all of the league’s top 4 teams, as well as Iowa and James Madison in non-conference play. Unfortunately I am late to this one as the line was 5.5 a few weeks ago but this is still my favorite under bet of the season.
Louisiana Tech Under 6 wins +105 (3 units)
Perhaps no team has been hurt more by conference realignment than Louisiana Tech. When the Bulldogs joined Conference USA, it regularly had top 25 teams. Now they’re left behind in the worst league in FBS with no natural rivals. To make matters worse, I also think they’ll be quite bad this year. They were a bottom 10 outfit in FBS last year- the offense will improve with talented Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier at the helm, but the defense will be a sieve. They allowed a frightening 482 YPG in conference play last year and project to be even worse on that side of the ball. The roster, especially on defense, is littered with 2 stars and junior college players and I don’t think that’s enough to cut it even in this weakened CUSA.
Akron Over 4 wins -120 (3 units)
Akron might be the toughest place to win in FBS. They have to compete with a plethora of other MAC schools on the recruiting trail and they have no money. I was thus pretty shocked when they got a respected coach to come here in Joe Moorhead and I really like what he’s done. They went 2-10 last year but lost oodles of close games and actually outgained their opposition in MAC play. I project this year’s squad to be middle of the pack in the MAC and that is enough to challenge for a bowl game.
New Mexico State to make CUSA Title Game +1000 (2 units)
New Mexico State was one of the best stories in college football last year, going 7-6 despite having a preseason win total of 3. The highlight of the season was a 49-14 win over Liberty as a three touchdown underdog. I am bullish on NMSU and bearish on the main contenders in CUSA (Western Kentucky and Liberty) which makes this an easy bet. The Aggies have a proper QB in Diego Pavia and I think they’re a clear cut above the bottom few teams in the league. They’ll be decent underdogs in road games against Liberty and WKU but I think that this is fantastic value, it’s my favorite longshot bet of the preseason.