Way-Too-Early 2024 College Football Top 25
The 2023 college football season will come to a close tomorrow night when Michigan and Washington will face off for the national title. That means it’s time for my annual preview of the 2024 season. I’ve made some educated guesses about NFL draft declarations and transfer portal decisions here but there are still some potentially impactful decisions (Cameron Ward, Quinn Ewers etc.) still to be made that could shake up this list quite a bit.
Projected 12 Team Playoff
9 of my projected top 10 teams hail from the new look Big Ten or the new look SEC, so this projected field is heavy on those conferences. Interestingly, it does give my projected ACC and Big 12 champions the 3 and 4 seeds. I’ve just put teams in the playoff based on their preseason ranking with no real adjustment made for their expected strength of schedule.
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Arizona
4 Clemson
5 Alabama vs. 12 Memphis
6 Texas vs. 11 Notre Dame
7 Oregon vs. 10 Michigan
8 Missouri vs. 9 Penn State
Projected Top 25
This top 25 is just my personal thoughts- I don’t yet have the roster data required to run my model for the 2024 season. The list is meant to be a guess as to what my model’s 2024 preseason top 25 will look like- it is meant to be a predictor of how good teams will be in 2024, not how good their resumes will be at the end of the season.
1. Georgia (2023: 13-1, SEC East Champions)
Georgia looks to be the clear preseason #1 for 2024. QB Carson Beck returns, and the Bulldogs might have the best offensive line and the best defensive line in the sport next year. The main concern is at the skill positions where both TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey are likely to depart for the NFL.
2. Alabama (2023: 12-2, SEC Champions, CFP Semifinalist)
QB continuity is increasingly rare at the top of the sport. Alabama is going to bring back Jalen Milroe and he might be the early 2024 Heisman favorite. The 2024 Crimson Tide figure to be even more loaded with five stars than the typical Alabama team, despite the usual departures to the NFL draft. Alabama and Georgia will also play their first regular season matchup in four years in September.
3. Texas (2023: 12-2, Big 12 Champions, CFP Semifinalist)
I really struggled with who to put in this spot- there is a clear drop from the top 2 to everyone else. Ultimately, I went with Texas. While the Longhorns do lose two amazing defensive tackles and two amazing receivers- they are very likely to return QB Quinn Ewers and are behind only Georgia and Alabama in average star rating on the roster. The move to the SEC brings a tough schedule with Georgia, Michigan and Oklahoma all on the docket.
4. Ohio State (2023: 11-2)
The Buckeyes threw Kyle McCord to the curb and are upgrading significantly under center with Will Howard coming over from Kansas State. The big problem here is the loss of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, but I have to make them the BIg Ten favorite given their combination of QB experience and overall recruiting stars.
5. Oregon (2023: 12-2, Pac-12 Runner-Up)
Oregon will lose Heisman finalist Bo Nix but replaces him with presumed starter Dillon Gabriel and QB of the future Dante Moore. The Ducks were quite unlucky to lose both matchups with Washington this year and finished the regular season #1 in my ratings. Their lines figure to be among the best in the sport once again and they are neck and neck with Ohio State for the best roster in the Big Ten.
6. Missouri (2023: 11-2)
Missouri is the only non-traditional power in my top 10 and probably has the lowest recruiting rankings of any team in that group. However, they’ve had a fantastic 2023 season and bring back QB Brady Cook and a future top 5 pick in WR Luther Burden. The schedule is easy, as far as SEC schedules go, with Alabama, Texas A&M and Oklahoma as the main obstacles.
7. Michigan (2023: 14-0, Big Ten Champions, CFP title yet to play)
Michigan is losing a lot this offseason- I think most Wolverines fans would recognize that they’ll take a sizable step back next year. Assuming JJ McCarthy leaves, the QB situation is completely up in the air with a transfer, true freshman Jadyn Davis or someone currently on the roster all options. More concerningly, 6 or 7 starters from their elite defense will depart. They’ll be a good team next year, but likely will start the year in the back half of the top 10.
8. Penn State (2023: 10-3)
The Nittany Lions have a less talented roster than the next few teams listed here, but they do have QB certainty in Drew Allar. They benefit from Michigan falling off the schedule although they must face USC and Washington.
9. Notre Dame (2023: 10-3)
Notre Dame has strung together a few very strong recruiting classes in a row and now has the overall roster talent on the level of the other top 10 teams (Alabama and Georgia excepted). Riley Leonard is transferring in from Duke to start behind center and I expect to see the Irish in the 12 team playoff next year.
10. Tennessee (2023: 9-4)
Tennessee is handing the offense over to former five star Nico Iamaleava. He looked phenomenal in the bowl game and the Volunteers lose very few players of note to the NFL draft this offseason, landing them in the back half of my top 10.
11. Arizona (2023: 10-3)
QB Noah Fifita was a revelation for Arizona this year and he will return. The Wildcats were no fluke and are going to finish the year just outside the top 10 of my ratings, and they’ll return 15 starters or so. The Wildcats are my pick to win the Big 12 in 2024 and reach the playoff.
12. Clemson (2023: 9-4)
Clemson was a lot better than their 9-4 record this year. They’re finishing the year in the teens of my ratings and starting QB Cade Klubnik returns. The season starts with a tough game against Georgia but other than that they could be favored in every game.
13. LSU (2023: 10-3)
Garrett Nussmeier takes over in Baton Rouge after sitting on the bench for two years. Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers depart but LSU might have the best roster of any team outside the top 10.
14. Ole Miss (2023: 11-2)
Many people will have Ole Miss higher than this, but my model never liked the 2023 version of the Rebels that much in the first place. The Rebels have done a lot of good work in the portal but I am concerned about the fact that they replace nearly their entire offensive line.
15. Utah (2023: 8-5)
2023 was a lost season for the Utes with horrible injury luck across the roster. QB Cam Rising is back and if he’s healthy he brings tremendous experience in his 7th year of college football. 9 or 10 starters will return on defense and this will be one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They should be in the mix at the top of the new look Big 12.
16. Oklahoma (2023: 10-3)
Dillon Gabriel has departed for Oregon and heralded youngster Jackson Arnold will take over under center for the Sooners. Unfortunately, the Sooners’ recruiting has backslid a bit in recent years, and the schedule gets much tougher with the move to the SEC.
17. NC State (2023: 9-4)
NC State very quietly put together another 9 win season in 2023. They’re making a massive upgrade at QB with the uber talented Grayson McCall coming over from Coastal Carolina and also should return all five offensive linemen. Clemson and Florida State are not what they once were and that makes an ACC title a lot more attainable for the Wolfpack.
18. SMU (2023: 11-3)
To the surprise of many, I think SMU might be one of the best teams in the ACC in their first year in the league. Preston Stone was the best quarterback in college football that no one discussed this year and they already have more recruiting stars on their roster than many ACC teams.
19. Kansas (2023: 9-4)
Jalon Daniels returns at QB for the Jayhawks. He’s had injury issues each of the last two years, but if healthy he is a top ten QB in the country. RB Devin Neal and most of the offensive line return as well and Kansas will once again have a potent rushing attack.
20. Washington (2023: 14-0, Pac-12 Champions, CFP title yet to play)
Washington will lose all of their top players from the dream 2023 team. Obviously Michael Penix Jr. is the main loss, but there might be 4 first round picks on the current roster who are walking out the door. Former Mississippi State QB Will Rogers will take over behind center but will be working with a completely new offense.
21. Florida State (2023: 13-1, ACC Champions)
Florida State is going to be handing over the keys to the offense to unproven sophomore Brock Glenn. The Seminoles have a solid roster but replacing QB Jordan Travis and two first round talents in Keon Coleman and Jared Verse will be tough.
22. Kansas State (2023: 9-4)
The Wildcats were very unlucky in 2023- they had the numbers of a top 10 team and had a few unlucky bounces, especially against Texas. Unfortunately Will Howard departs for Ohio State but Avery Johnson steps in behind center and will be greeted by the usual strong K-State offensive line.
23. Iowa State (2023: 7-6)
Iowa State had an amazing second half of 2023 and vaulted into my top 25. They return QB Rocco Becht and might return 10 starters on defense as well. They’re a dark horse contender in the wide open new Big 12.
24. Texas A&M (2023: 7-6)
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Texas A&M- they’re the only team in my top 25 undergoing a coaching change. However, even with the transfer portal defections, there’s just too much raw talent on this roster to not put them somewhere in the top 25.
25. USC (2023: 8-5)
It seems like Miller Moss will be taking over at QB for the Trojans in 2024 with Caleb Williams off to the NFL and Malachi Nelson transferring to Boise State. That’s a big question mark as Moss is untested and not that highly regarded for a USC quarterback. There are a lot of recruiting stars on the roster but so far the meat of the roster has not really lived up to those stars.
Also Considered: Louisville, Miami, Memphis, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin, Auburn, UCLA, Boise State, Georgia Tech
College Football Bowl Game Picks 2023
SMU +4 hit easily last week, the Mustangs would have won by three touchdowns if it wasn’t for bad turnover luck. Unfortunately, my Louisville to win the ACC +300 ticket lost, as did my Oregon to win the national title +500 ticket. I think both of them were good value, but ultimately came up short.
Preseason: +4.72 units
Other Futures: -4 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Week 12: -1.01 units
Week 13: +8.82 units
Week 14: +1.79 units
Total: +3.85 units
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (Texas Bowl: Wednesday December 27th 8:00 PM Central)
This is a matchup of two teams who are much different from their records. Oklahoma State won 9 games, but might be the worst 9 win power conference team I’ve ever seen. They were blown out by South Alabama and UCF and needed a miracle comeback to even make the Big 12 title game. Texas A&M, on the other hand, lost a few close games and was a top 20 team according to my numbers all year. The only reason this is not a bigger play is because the Aggies have a significant number of players in the portal, but even with that they have by far the more talented team.
Texas A&M -4.5 -110 (4 units)
Fresno State vs. New Mexico State (New Mexico Bowl: Saturday December 16th 4:45 PM Central)
New Mexico State has been my most profitable team of the season, with my NMSU to make the CUSA title game +1000 future easily my best bet of the season. The Aggies should be bigger favorites here- Fresno State took a significant step back in November. NMSU is being penalized for playing in Conference USA with this line, but the conference was nowhere near as bad as people were projecting it to be in the preseason. The Aggies will be motivated here and I like this pick a lot.
New Mexico State -1 -110 (3 units)
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio (Myrtle Beach Bowl: Saturday December 16th 10 AM Central)
Unfortunately this is a stale line- I bet it a few days ago before star Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke entered the portal. I do still like the Bobcats at the new line of +3.5 but have to report the lines that I actually bet here. Ohio was the second best team in the MAC behind Toledo, and while the dregs of the MAC are really bad, the top teams can play with anyone. Georgia Southern completely came apart down the stretch and questions are beginning to be asked about Clay Helton’s job security in Statesboro.
Ohio -1.5 -110 (2 units)
Miami vs. Rutgers (Pinstripe Bowl: Tuesday December 28th 1:15 PM Central)
Miami’s season got off to a promising start and then came completely unglued after they failed to kneel the ball against Georgia Tech. However, the underlying fundamentals of this Hurricanes team are strong with good line play on both sides of the ball. They are much more talented than a mediocre Rutgers team and the loss of QB Tyler Van Dyke to the portal is probably a good thing. I like the ‘Canes here.
Miami -3.5 -110 (2 units)
Kansas vs. UNLV (Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Tuesday December 26th 8:00 PM Central)
Kansas has been a money team for me the last two years, this is the second year in a row that I’ve bet the over on the Jayhawks’ season wins and both years it has cashed easily. UNLV has been a good story this year led by QB Jayden Maiava and Michigan State transfer WR Ricky White. It’s unclear whether Maiava will even play in this game (he’s rumored to be headed to the portal) and even if he does, the Runnin’ Rebels are much less talented than Kansas. Lance Leipold has built a talented roster out of nothing in Lawrence and they can easily beat decent G5 teams like UNLV.
Kansas -10.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Pre-Bowls 2023
This was the most impactful conference championship weekend in 25 years. Not since UCLA and Kansas State both fell on the last day of the regular season in 1998 have we seen the national championship picture change so dramatically in the first weekend of December.
Interestingly, we’re now headed into a playoff without any of the top 3 teams in my model (and only 1 of the top 6). I’m still quite a bit of an outlier for having Oregon #1, but this year’s Ohio State and Georgia teams are two of the better squads to miss the playoff in a while.
Top 25
Oregon
Ohio State
Georgia
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Penn State
Oklahoma
Missouri
Texas (+2)
Louisville
Washington (+5)
Texas A&M
Arizona (-3)
Clemson
Florida State
Kansas (-3)
Oregon State
Tennessee
SMU
Florida
Iowa State
Miami (+1)
Maryland (-1)
Michigan put the exclamation mark on a great regular season with a win over Iowa. The Wolverines are consensus 2 point favorites against Alabama in the Rose Bowl which is right in line with my fair line. I’ve been lower on Washington than most in the last few weeks, with the Huskies falling from 5th in my ratings in October all the way to 18th last week. Michael Penix Jr. and crew proved me wrong and are now two wins away from their first national title in my lifetime. SMU finishes the regular season as the only G5 team in my top 25 and is likely going to be a preseason sleeper of mine in the ACC next year.
College Football Playoff Preview
This is the 10th year of the College Football Playoff and it is shaping up to be the most interesting selection debate yet. It’s been an unusually chalky year at the top of the sport- this is the first time in several decades that we’ve gotten past Thanksgiving with 4 undefeated major conference teams, and that means that some resumes that would ordinarily make the playoff will be left out this year.
There are a lot of people who have delved into the various scenarios for this weekend’s games and tried to prognosticate what will happen in each of them. I decided to take a slightly different approach and utilized the betting odds to make the playoff to try to derive what the market is implying might happen in various scenarios. Here are some interesting things I found:
Michigan, Georgia, Washington and Florida State are in with a win. Oregon almost surely is as well.
No one will dispute that Michigan and Georgia are in the playoff with wins this weekend. There has been some buzz about the possibility that a 13-0 Florida State could be left out, but I find this quite unlikely. The Seminoles are both -140 to beat Louisville and to make the playoff. If you assume they have no chance with a loss, this implies to me that they’re a lock with a win.
Before going through with this exercise, I wasn’t certain that Oregon was a lock with a win over Washington. However, the Ducks are -355 to beat Washington and -340 to make the playoff, implying around a 97% chance that they make the field with a win on Friday.
Alabama and Texas both need help- Texas moreso.
Each column in the above table can be read as follows:
Win % - Market implied chance of winning this weekend
P(playoff with win) - Market implied chance of making the playoffs given that the team wins this weekend
P(playoff with loss) - Market implied chance of making the playoffs given that the team loses this weekend
P(playoff) - Market implied chance of making the playoff
Two things to note here- Alabama has an 88% chance of making the playoff if they beat Georgia, and Texas has a 42% chance of making the playoff if they beat Oklahoma State.
Texas has one very clear path to the playoff. If they beat Oklahoma State, Georgia beats Alabama and Louisville beats Florida State, the field will clearly be Georgia, Michigan, Texas and the Pac-12 champion. This scenario happens about 25% of the time. All of their other paths to the playoff are murky and involve either getting in over 12-1 Alabama or a Michigan loss.
Alabama is also in with a win and a Florida State loss. A Crimson Tide win and a Florida State win complicates things, as I’ll get into below.
Georgia and Michigan both have a chance with a loss.
Georgia is pretty much a coinflip to make the playoff with a loss this weekend- obviously their case would be greatly helped by a Florida State loss. Michigan is a massive favorite over Iowa, but I estimate they have around a 1 in 3 chance at making it if they lose.
If it comes down to Texas, Alabama and Georgia, the Crimson Tide are in better shape than the Longhorns and Bulldogs.
As I mentioned above, the easiest scenario for Texas is a win, a Georgia win and a Florida State loss. If Texas and Alabama both win, things get much trickier. If Texas, Alabama and Florida State win, there is 1 spot for Texas/Alabama/Georgia. If Texas, Alabama and Louisville win, there are 2 spots for Texas/Alabama/Georgia (all of this assumes Michigan beats Iowa).
In the scenario where there’s 1 spot for Texas/Alabama/Georgia, I estimate there’s about a 60% chance Alabama gets it, a 30% chance Texas gets it and a 10% chance Georgia gets it. If there’s 2 spots for Texas/Alabama/Georgia, I estimate there’s a 90% chance Alabama is in, a 60% chance Texas is in and a 50% chance that Georgia is in.
Ohio State is on life support, but not completely dead.
The best chance for the Buckeyes is for Michigan, Georgia, Louisville and Oklahoma State to win. This would pit the Buckeyes against the Pac-12 loser for the last spot, an argument I think they should win (especially if it’s a 2 loss Oregon). The Buckeyes have around a 3% chance at the field.
All of this analysis is only as good as the betting odds I’m using to make them, but the betting markets are reasonably tight and liquid so I think they form a good foundation for analysis. The markets are a bit higher on Alabama and Georgia’s chances and a bit lower on Texas’ than I would’ve guessed. Regardless, it is shaping up to be the most interesting conference championship weekend we’ve had since Auburn vaulted into the BCS title game in 2013.
College Football Picks Week 14 2023
Week 13 was fantastic- I went 5-1 against the spread with many of my winners (Kansas, BYU, Arizona) covering by multiple touchdowns. I unfortunately marked out a bit on my futures bets- Alabama under 10.5 wins was one miraculous Jalen Milroe pass away from winning.
Preseason: +4.72 units
Other Futures: 0 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Week 12: -1.01 units
Week 13: +8.82 units
Total: +6.06 units
SMU @.Tulane (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
SMU and Tulane both made it through the American unbeaten and neither has lost since September. Unfortunately for SMU, star QB Preston Stone was injured against Navy last week after putting up nearly 300 yards in the first quarter. Stone and the Mustangs have put up some gaudy offensive numbers this year and would surely be road favorites if he was healthy. Backup QB Kevin Jennings looked OK in mop-up duty, enough so that I am comfortable picking SMU here.
SMU +4 -112 (2 units)
As I mentioned in my ratings update this week, Oregon has expanded their lead as the #1 team in my model. I’m much higher on them than the computer consensus, but I would make the Ducks around a 4 point favorite against Georgia or Michigan and a bigger favorite over Texas or Florida State. The tough part of this bet is that it’s not even a given that they make the playoff with a win this weekend- betting markets imply they have around an 85% chance at the playoff with a win. I still think this is good value and should be around +375 or +400.
Oregon to win National Championship +500 (2 units)
Note that I normally would also be playing Louisville +3.5 this week against Florida State, but I bet Louisville to win the ACC +300 two weeks ago.
College Football Ratings Week 13 2023
I had a great time in Ann Arbor for Ohio State/Michigan this weekend. Even though I grew up in Michigan I haven’t been to the Big House that many times and this was my first OSU/Michigan game. The Wolverines really look like a complete team- they were never particularly explosive, but they didn’t need to be. I was particularly impressed by their final drive where they chewed 7 minutes off the clock, repeatedly running the ball effectively in 22 or 13 personnel.
Elsewhere, chalk held once again and we enter championship weekend with an unprecedented 4 undefeated teams. Maybe next weekend we will see our first big upsets of the season.
Top 25
Oregon
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Michigan
Notre Dame (+2)
Alabama
LSU (-2)
Penn State
Oklahoma (+1)
Missouri (+3)
Louisville (-1)
Arizona (+5)
Texas (+2)
Texas A&M (+4)
Kansas (+5)
Clemson (-3)
Florida State (-3)
Washington (+1)
Oregon State (-7)
Tennessee (+1)
SMU (+3)
Florida
Iowa State (+13)
Maryland (-1)
Miami (+2)
Oregon increased their lead at the top with a dominating win over Oregon State. I’m pretty unique in computer models in having the Ducks #1 overall (more on that in my picks this week) and their margin is growing. Bo Nix is completing nearly 80% of his passes and the Ducks are physical on both lines. Missouri rises into the top 10 of my ratings for the first time in nearly a decade. The Tigers are perhaps an interception against Georgia away from playing Alabama for a berth in the playoff this weekend. Iowa State pulled off an extremely impressive win over a good Kansas State team in the snow and has rescued what looked like a lost season in September.
Moving Up
Virginia Tech has been in the wilderness for a few years now but dominated rivals Virginia on the road to reach bowl eligibility. The Hokies surpassed any reasonable expectation this year and I like them as a sleeper pick for 2024. No one noticed, because it’s the MAC, but Bowling Green has had an excellent second half of the season. They finished on a 5-1 stretch with the lone loss being by one point to league champions Toledo. Colorado hasn’t featured in this section since September, but was shockingly competitive in a tight road loss to Utah without Shedeur Sanders.
Moving Down
I have a feeling that Navy is going to deeply regret firing Ken Niumatalolo in a few year’s time. They are 5-6 after a disastrous loss to SMU where they allowed 50 in the first half, and are quite a bit worse than their record indicates. Stanford might be the worst team in the Power Five, they got extremely lucky to win 3 FBS games and got predictably vaporized by Notre Dame. Oregon State was the latest victim of the demolition machine that is this year’s Oregon team in a non-competitive 31-7 loss.
College Football Picks Week 13 2023
Last week was mixed, Coastal Carolina really disappointed me while I had some easy covers elsewhere on New Mexico and Arizona. The week could’ve been amazing if I thought to play New Mexico ML but it was so much of a long shot I didn’t bother.
Preseason: +8.21 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Week 12: -1.01 units
Total: +0.73 units
Kansas @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Kansas will drop out of the rankings after their loss to Kansas State last weekend, but this is still a banner year for the Jayhawks. They’ve been playing with a second or third string QB all year and have established themselves as a fringe top 25 outfit. Cincinnati, meanwhile, does not have a pulse. This line should be in the low double digits. Amazingly, it opened at 3, but was up to this number by the time I could bet it. Kansas is my favorite play of the week.
Kansas -6 -110 (4 units)
BYU @ Oklahoma State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been lower on Oklahoma State than the consensus for some time now but have not had an opportunity to bet against them yet. I’m taking it here- the Cowboys have completely disappeared in two separate losses this season (South Alabama and UCF) and have had some pretty good close game luck. BYU is also worse than their record but I don’t think a Power Five team with a pulse should be this big of an underdog to an OK State squad that ranks around 40th.
BYU +17.5 -110 (3 units)
Kentucky @ Louisville (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a buyer of Louisville for a few weeks now, and my Louisville to win the ACC +300 bet from last week is looking quite good in the wake of Florida State QB Jordan Travis’ injury. I’ll pile on more exposure on the Cardinals here- they have a lot of impressive wins over decent teams like Miami and Virginia Tech. Kentucky is the same plodding Kentucky team you know and love, but without any freak athletes like Josh Allen (the DE, not the QB) or Lynn Bowden. Louisville should roll here.
Louisville -7 -110 (3 units)
Arizona @ Arizona State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is another line I’m upset about- I saw this open at the single digits at Circa but it was bid up to the low double digits by the time I got a chance at it. Arizona has been my second most profitable team of the year behind New Mexico State and I will ride the Wildcats again here. Arizona State was pulverized by Oregon last week and nearly lost to a bad FCS team in Southern Utah earlier this season. Arizona has an outside shot at the Pac-12 title game and will dominate their in-state rivals here.
Arizona -12.5 -110 (2 units)
Indiana @ Purdue (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Purdue is one of the best 3-8 teams I’ve seen. The Boilermakers have a handful of close losses and scored a big win for me against Minnesota a few weeks ago. I like them once again here- they have far more talent than Indiana, especially on the line of scrimmage. Tom Allen may be coaching for his job as Indiana HC but I think he’ll come up short here.
Purdue -2.5 -110 (2 units)
Utah State @ New Mexico (Friday, 2:30 PM Central)
New Mexico won outright last week as a 24 point underdog, and I’m really annoyed with myself for not betting on their moneyline at +2000. The Lobos have turned things around and are now a bottom 10 outfit in FBS as opposed to a bottom 5 one. Utah State has been overrated all season and I’m happy to fade them here.
New Mexico +8.5 -110 (2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 12 2023
The favorites just keep on winning- we now enter rivalry week with an unprecedented 5 11-0 power conference teams. It’s a good thing we don’t have the BCS anymore, I can’t imagine how much of a nightmare adjudicating this mess would be with a 2 team format.
Top 25
Oregon (+3)
Georgia (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Michigan (-3)
LSU (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Notre Dame
Penn State (+2)
Louisville (+6)
Oklahoma (-1)
Texas (+2)
Oregon State (+4)
Missouri (-5)
Florida State
Clemson (+2)
Kansas State (-5)
Arizona (+3)
Texas A&M (-6)
Washington
Kansas (+4)
Tennessee (-3)
Florida (+14)
Maryland (+14)
USC (-1)
SMU (+1)
Next Ten: UCF, Miami, TCU, North Carolina, Ole Miss, NC State, UCLA, Auburn, Liberty, South Carolina
Oregon has moved to the #1 spot in my ratings for the first time in a decade. The Ducks put up one of the most dominant performances you’ll ever see against Arizona State last week. They figure to be at least a touchdown favorite against Washington in a potential Pac-12 title game rematch. Michigan moves out of the top spot after an extremely disappointing performance against Maryland. The Wolverines’ defense looked mortal for the first time all year and the Terrapins had multiple chances in the 4th quarter to win the game. Florida outplayed Missouri on the road and is probably the most unlucky team in the country- they’re a fringe top 25 outfit that is 5-6.
Moving Up
I have been a huge believer in New Mexico State all year, but even I did not expect them to beat Auburn. They became the first team of the year to win by 20+ points as a 20+ point underdog, and it wasn’t a fluky game- they just outplayed Auburn on the line of scrimmage. New Mexico also won outright as a 24 point underdog- I picked the Lobos +24 and am really kicking myself for not sprinkling on half a unit on their moneyline. Arkansas State looked like the worst team in FBS in September but Butch Jones has saved his job with a miraculous turnaround, and the Red Wolves are now bowl eligible.
Moving Down
At this rate, Colorado might finish below their preseason rating. The wheels have come off for the Buffaloes and they were uncompetitive with Washington State. Louisiana Tech is the biggest dumpster fire in the sport as head coach Sonny Cumbie has gone to war with the local media and his team is a disaster. Louisiana Tech under was probably my best win total bet of the year. Cincinnati is also a total mess under first year coach Scott Satterfield and looks nothing like the team that went to the playoff wtih Desmond Ridder and Sauce Gardner two years ago.
College Football Picks Week 12 2023
Last week was amazing. I cashed my +1000 ticket on New Mexico State to make the CUSA title game as they knocked off Western Kentucky to clinch second place in the conference. Those 20 units could be the difference between a winning season and a losing one for me. My bets last week did fine as well, with Purdue and Coastal Carolina covering easily.
Preseason: +10.74 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Total: +4.27 units
Coastal Carolina @ Army (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Coastal Carolina has been one of my money teams recently- the Chanticleers have rattled off 5 wins in a row after a 2-3 start. I really like them here- they’ve proven to be more than injured QB Grayson McCall as many of those wins have come since his injury. Army has some awful losses to ULM and UMass and should be a double digit underdog here.
Coastal Carolina -5.5 -110 (4 units)
New Mexico @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
I need to preface this by noting that New Mexico is a horrible football team. However, I’m concerned with what I’ve seen recently from Fresno State and don’t think they should be a 24 point favorite against any FBS team. They’ve been worse than their record all year- they were beneficiaries of close game luck all year and then felt the brunt of it in a blowout loss to San Jose State. They couldn’t beat awful Eastern Washington or Nevada teams by 24 so I don’t think they can blowout New Mexico.
New Mexico +24 -110 (3 units)
Hawaii @ Wyoming (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
Hawaii pulled off one of the most shocking results of the season last week with a home win over Air Force. I’m backing the Rainbow Warriors here- head coach Timmy Chang took over the worst situation in FBS but has made something out of it. Wyoming is one of the better teams in the Mountain West but Hawaii now has a pulse and this line is priced as if they don’t.
Hawaii +15.5 -110 (3 units)
Hawaii ML +455 (1 unit)
Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Western Kentucky all year and will continue to do so here. They thankfully lost to New Mexico State last week and have not been able to enforce their talent advantage on the rest of Conference USA. Sam Houston State has been better than their record all year and has a shot at their biggest win as an FBS program here.
Sam Houston State +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Sam Houston State ML +400 (1 unit)
Hawaii ML/Sam Houston State ML +2675 (0.1 units)
Duke @ Virginia (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
Duke has not been the same team since Riley Leonard got hurt a few weeks ago. Virginia, on the other hand, has seen a midseason renaissance. I was worried the Cavaliers might not win an FBS game a few weeks ago, but I now think they’ve escaped the bottom of the ACC. They nearly knocked off Louisville on the road last week and can definitely win this game.
Virginia +4 -110 (2 units)
Central Michigan @ Ohio (Wednesday, 6 PM Central)
Central Michigan might be the most overrated team in the country, this is the third week in a row I’ve bet against them. Ohio’s season has flown under the radar since their loss to Miami (OH) knocked them out of serious MAC contention, but their September win over Iowa State only looks more impressive as time passes. I like the Bobcats to win in a rout.
Ohio -8.5 -110 (2 units)
Washington vs. Oregon State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
This is the best game of the weekend and Oregon State has a chance for their biggest win since they knocked off #1 USC in 2008. I think the Beavers should be favored here- Washington has been playing at a below top 25 level since their win over Oregon, while Beavers QB DJ Uiagalelei has been playing like the 5 star we knew he could be the last few weeks.
Oregon State +1 -110 (1 unit)
Utah vs. Arizona (Saturday, 1:30 PM Central)
Arizona has been one of my most profitable teams all year and I’m going back to them here. Utah has taken some blowout losses while the Wildcats have been remarkably consistent all year. Arizona QB Noah Fifita will be the best player on the field and the ‘Cats have an outside chance at the Pac-12 championship.
Arizona +1 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville is reasonably likely to face Florida State in the ACC title game. They can get there with a win against Miami this weekend (they’re a 1 point favorite) or a UNC loss to either Clemson (where UNC is a touchdown underdog) or NC State. I think the Cardinals would have a decent chance to beat Florida State in a potential matchup- FSU has fallen outside the top 10 of my ratings and Louisville has a much better defense than you realize.
Louisville to win the ACC +300 (2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 11 2023
We still have not had many big upsets this season- 2023 is the first year this millennium that 5 power conference teams have reached 10-0. It’s led to an interesting playoff race where some good 1 loss teams like Alabama and Texas may not control their own destiny.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Georgia (+1)
Oregon (-1)
Alabama (+2)
LSU (-1)
Notre Dame (-1)
Missouri (+10)
Oklahoma (+4)
Penn State (+2)
Kansas State (+3)
Texas A&M (+4)
Texas (-3)
Florida State (-3)
Louisville (+7)
Oregon State (+3)
Clemson
Tennessee (-9)
Washington (-4)
Arizona (+1)
Auburn (+16)
Miami (+2)
USC
Kansas (-2)
Utah (+7)
Missouri destroyed Tennessee and moved into my top 10 for the first time all season. The Tigers have not been to a major bowl game since the 1972 Fiesta Bowl (they’ve made the Cotton Bowl twice, but it was in the BCS era when it was not a major bowl). They’re two wins away from a surefire major bowl bid. Kansas State continues to destroy lesser opponents and has a shot at the Big 12 title game, where they’d roughly be a tossup in a rematch with Texas. Auburn destroyed Arkansas and has flown back into my top 25 in advance of the Iron Bowl.
Moving Up
Hawaii pulled off the rare feat of winning by double digits in a game in which they were a double digit underdog. They knocked off Air Force, whose season has gone off the rails with back to back losses after an 8-8 start. Elsewhere in the Mountain West, San Jose State demolished 8-1 Fresno State at home and is now a real player in the conference title race. Northwestern has been the surprise of the Big Ten- they also won by double digits as a double digit dog and are one win away from a shocking bowl bid.
Moving Down
Georgia State has outperformed any reasonable expectations this season but was evaporated at home by Appalachian State, costing them any real chance at a Sun Belt title. Arkansas followed up their win against Florida with an absolutely dreadful performance as a favorite against Auburn. Oklahoma State had their annual unexplainable blowout loss, this time to UCF.
College Football Picks Week 11 2023
Last week was my best of the season. I got some good luck as Charlotte and Houston both covered in OT wins and UTEP covered by a few points. The real success was in my future bets where I cashed UMass over 2 wins as they picked up their third win of the season against Merrimack. I also cashed my preseason bets on Louisiana Tech and Kansas and got a key win from Stanford as a +14 dog.
Here’s the update on my preseason bets. I have an enormous amount of exposure to New Mexico State as I will cash my 10/1 futures bet on them if they can beat Western Kentucky this weekend.
Preseason: +4.66 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Total: -4.14 units
Purdue @ Minnesota (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
The Big Ten West may look like a trash heap to most observers but I think there is some good value to be found in betting on these games. Purdue is 2-7 but has been a lot better than their record- they have had some horrific close game luck and have played by far the toughest schedule of any team in the division. I think they’re a good bit better than a lucky Minnesota team.
Purdue +1 -110 (3 units)
Texas Tech @ Kansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Kansas has been one of my money teams all season- my Kansas over 6 wins bet just cashed as the Jayhawks are now 7-2. I’m continuing to ride them here- they’ve just entered my top 25 for the first time all season and while Texas Tech is better than their 4-5 record would suggest, they’re a good bit behind Kansas.
Kansas -3.5 -112 (2 units)
Rice @ UTSA (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Rice is putting together their best season in many years, and if it were not for a shocking loss to UConn they’d be a near lock to make a bowl game. They’ve lost back to back close games to Tulane and SMU, who I think are the two best teams in the AAC. UTSA is a decent team but Rice has been undervalued all season and I’m on them once again here.
Rice +13 -110 (2 units)
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been fading Texas State all year and it’s been one of my worst decisions of the season. The Bobcats were projected for 4.5 wins and are already 6-3. I clearly haven’t learned from my mistakes as I’m on Coastal Carolina here- the Chanticleers were expected to falter after all-world QB Grayson McCall went down with an injury but have instead won 4 games in a row. My model still thinks Texas State is not that talented and has been playing above their heads all season.
Coastal Carolina +1 -112 (2 units)
Miami @ Florida State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Florida State has flown a bit under the radar in recent weeks as they’ve been playing the soft section of their ACC schedule. Miami’s struggles this year have been well chronicled but underneath all the poor game management decisions I think there is a lot of talent on the Hurricanes roster. They can give archrivals Florida State a bit of a game here.
Miami +14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
Fellow Michiganders know how big of a rivalry this is- quite arguably the biggest in the MAC. I’ve been fading Central Michigan a bit and will continue to do so here. They were quite lucky to survive a furious Northern Illinois comeback this year and Western has turned things around massively after a slow start to the season.
Western Michigan -3.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 10 2023
Week 10 was the best of the season so far. There were multiple great games in every time window- I particularly enjoyed Ohio State/Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights put up their most impressive game in nearly a decade. If not for a backbreaking pick six, Rutgers easily could’ve won that game.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Oregon
Georgia
LSU
Notre Dame
Alabama
Louisville (+7)
Tennessee (+5)
Texas (-2)
Florida State (-2)
Penn State (+6)
Oklahoma (-1)
Kansas State (-3)
Washington (-2)
Texas A&M (-6)
Clemson (-1)
Missouri (+2)
Oregon State (-2)
Ole Miss (+1)
Arizona (+1)
Kansas (+6)
USC
Miami (-5)
North Carolina (-1)
I have been extremely impressed with Louisville the last two weeks. Since losing to Pitt, they have beaten Duke and Virginia Tech by a combined 57-3 and have moved into my top 10 for the first time all year. Penn State followed up a horrible performance against Indiana with a dominating win on the road against Maryland. Michigan comes to Happy Valley this weekend and the Nittany Lions will have a shot at the Big Ten East if they can pull the upset. Arizona picked up another impressive win against UCLA and is one of the most improved teams in the country this year.
Moving Up
Army lost to UMass last week and then beat Air Force by 20 points this week. This has to be the most confusing pair of results of the season, but this sort of thing can happen to option teams sometimes. The Black Knights were the beneficiaries of some amazing fumble luck against Air Force this week. Utah responded well from their blowout loss to Oregon as they evaporated Arizona State 55-3. The Utes have been extremely impressive this year given their horrible injury luck. Georgia Tech dominated Virginia on the road and now looks likely to make their first bowl game in 5 years.
Moving Down
Virginia Tech had put together a few good results in a row but was completely outmatched by Louisville and now needs to win two of their last three to make a bowl. BYU has been a lot worse than their record all year and probably needs to beat Iowa State this weekend to make a bowl after a blowout loss to West Virginia. Duke got very lucky to beat Wake Forest and has been nowhere near the same team since Riley Leonard got hurt.
College Football Picks Week 10 2023
After a few unlucky weeks, I’ll count this one as a lucky one. Rice was down big before coming back to cover against Tulane. Pitt got evaporated by Notre Dame, allowing 58 points. I’ll gladly take a split between those two games.
I took a long look at my preseason bets today, and the +0.29 units figure you see below represents my best guess as to what the current mark to market value of my bets is. By far the biggest decision remaining is on New Mexico State- I have 2 units on them to make the CUSA title game at +1000. They beat Louisiana Tech this week and are now about a coin flip to make the title game. Here’s a table with all of my preseason bets and their current state.
Preseason: +0.29 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Total: -14.6 units
Charlotte @ Tulsa (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
These teams are both exceptionally bad. This is nothing new for Charlotte, who has been a sub-100 team for almost their entire time in FBS, but it’s a step back for a Tulsa team that was in the top 25 3 years ago. Recent results lead me to believe that Tulsa is a good bit worse than Charlotte- they have lost their last two games by a combined 111-20. Their defense is a sieve and I think that Charlotte gets their second FBS win of the year here.
Charlotte +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Western Kentucky @ UTEP (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
Western Kentucky’s season has fizzled out quite a bit- the Hilltoppers had a lot of buzz in the preseason but have fallen to 4-4. UTEP has proven an ability to beat the dregs of FBS and I don’t think they should be double digit dogs at home here. WKU is New Mexico State’s biggest competition to make the conference title game so I’m really doubling down here, but I do quite like the Miners.
UTEP +11 -110 (3 units)
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
The MAC is a strange conference where no team really has a fundamental recruiting advantage. If there are any “haves” in this league, it would be Toledo and Northern Illinois. The Huskies have shown this in recent games- they have one of the most talented rosters in the conference and have ridden it to three straight wins. Central Michigan is a sneaky bad team that I bet against a few weeks ago and I’m picking against them once again here.
Northern Illinois -2 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ Baylor (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
While both of these teams have been disappointments this year, Baylor has been the bigger one. The Bears are two years removed from a BIg 12 title and will now be very lucky to make a bowl. It’s a strange thing to say about a team with a Hail Mary win, but Houston has been a bit unlucky this year and I think they’re better than the dregs of the Big 12.
Houston +4.5 -112 (2 units)
Tulane @ East Carolina (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I faded Tulane last week against Rice and am looking to do so again. The Green Wave are skirting by a bit on their reputation and lucky win/loss record- they’re very clearly a step behind the best teams in the AAC (SMU and Memphis). The problem here is that East Carolina is absolutely horrible. Still, the Green Wave are not good enough to be a two touchdown road favorite.
East Carolina +16.5 -108 (2 units)
South Alabama @ Troy (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
These two teams are expected to dominate the Sun Belt West for years to come. They were both double digit win teams last year, with the division being determined by a 10-6 Troy win. I think South Alabama can get revenge this year- the Jaguars have some confusing losses, but they’ve shown incredible upside, like they did in a blowout win over Oklahoma State. I’m doubling down here (I also have a South Alabama to win the Sun Belt West ticket) but like the Jaguars here.
South Alabama +6 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 9 2023
This weekend was lacking big matchups on paper. We did get one big upset as Kansas took down Oklahoma, knocking us down to 4 power conference unbeatens. Next week’s schedule looks quite a bit bigger, with LSU/Alabama, Kansas State/Texas and Washington/USC all likely to play big roles in conference championship races.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Oregon (+2)
Georgia (-1)
LSU
Notre Dame (+6)
Alabama (+1)
Texas (-1)
Florida State (+2)
Texas A&M
Kansas State (+6)
Oklahoma (+1)
Washington (-7)
Tennessee
Louisville (+4)
Clemson (-1)
Oregon State (+1)
Penn State (-9)
Miami (-3)
Missouri
Ole Miss (+3)
Arizona
USC (-2)
North Carolina (-1)
UCLA (+4)
If Notre Dame had held on to beat Ohio State we’d be talking about the Irish as a likely playoff team right now. They’ve played a ridiculous schedule and if they get past Clemson this weekend they’ll skate into a major bowl at 10-2. Kansas State has won back to back games 41-0 and 41-3. They’re 6-2 but both their losses are by one score, while all six of their wins are by double digits. Penn State looked awful against Indiana and my hopes for a competitive game against Michigan are quite low.
Moving Up
Stanford had the ball down two with three minutes to play, but dropped a fourth down conversion. Still, they were competitive against Washington as 28 point underdogs and no longer look like the worst team in the Power Five. SMU dropped 69 points on Tulsa and has one of the most explosive offenses in college football. The Mustangs are now my top ranked G5 team. Virginia Tech looked horrible in September but has been fantastic in October and now has an outside shot at the ACC title.
Moving Down
Utah lost 35-6 at home to Oregon. The Utes have been devastated by injuries this year and haven’t been able to play their usual physical brand of football. I bet on Pitt this week and it went very poorly- they lost 58-7 to Notre Dame and are now staring down the barrel of a 2-10 season. Army has fallen apart with their new-look gun option offense and lost at home to hapless UMass.
College Football Picks Week 8 2023
Last week was absolutely brutal. The lowlight was Pitt- QB Christian Veilleux could have run for the game clinching first down but slid short of the first down marker. The Panthers then had to punt and let Wake Forest drive the length of the field in 40 seconds to lose the game. UConn also led all game and then lost by 3 as a 2.5 point underdog. On to the next week.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Total: -11.97 units
Tulane @ Rice (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
It’s kind of shocking that a program as historically bad as Tulane has put together 2 great seasons in a row. The Green Wave went 13-1 last year and are off to a 6-1 start with their lone loss to a good Ole Miss team. Rice has been a pleasant surprise this year and they have a great QB in former Georgia star J.T. Daniels. I think the Owls are one of the most undervalued teams in the country and like them here.
Rice +10 -105 (2 units)
Rice ML +330 (1 unit)
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Pitt screwed me over last week but I am going back to them this week. They are probably the best 2-5 team in the country- they have outgained their opponents in several of their losses and probably deserve to be 4-3 or so. Their QB play has also been a bit improved since Phil Jurkovec was benched. Notre Dame is a good team but the “Pitt superweapon” has a nonzero chance of pulling one of its trademark upsets here.
Pittsburgh +20.5 -108 (2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 8 2023
Penn State has been a full step below Michigan and Ohio State for a few years, and Saturday was their chance to change that. They did nothing of the sort, looking hapless offensively against Ohio State. Out west, USC picked up their second loss of the season and Washington looked very shaky against Arizona State- I still think the most likely scenario is an Oregon/Washington rematch in Vegas in December.
Top 25
Michigan
Ohio State
Georgia
LSU (+2)
Oregon (+2)
Washington (-2)
Texas (-2)
Alabama
Penn State
Texas A&M (+1)
Florida State (+1)
Notre Dame (+1)
Oklahoma (-3)
Tennessee (+1)
Clemson (-1)
Miami
Kansas State (+5)
Oregon State (-1)
Louisville (-1)
Missouri (+3)
USC (-1)
Arizona (-1)
North Carolina (-4)
Ole Miss (+3)
Wisconsin (-1)
Moving Up
Oklahoma and Texas are the clear top teams in the Big 12 but Kansas State has established themselves firmly in the #3 spot. They continue to operate a 2 QB system flawlessly and destroyed TCU this week- a big trip to Austin awaits in two weeks. South Alabama picked up a strange loss to Central Michigan but now looks like one of the best teams in the G5 after back to back wins by 48 and 52. I thought that Tony Elliot might not survive the season at Virginia but they got their biggest win in years, knocking off North Carolina as a three touchdown underdog.
Moving Down
Michigan State has fallen short of even my pessimistic forecast for them. They were destroyed 49-0 at home by Michigan and may not win a Big Ten game this year. Army was blanked 62-0 by LSU and will have their first losing record in five years. East Carolina might be the most disappointing team in FBS, the Pirates are winless against FBS competition and have fallen tremendously since the Lincoln Riley days.
College Football Picks Week 8 2023
Arizona continues to be my money team this year with their second no doubt cover in a row. The Wildcats covered +8 by 46 points in a blowout victory over Washington State. TCU also covered easily, but unfortunately I lost betting against Iowa for the second week in a row.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Total: -6.88 units
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Wake Forest all season- I faded them against Old Dominion (where they almost lost outright) and also against Georgia Tech. I’m continuing to sell them here- their offense is just simply not the same without Sam Hartman behind center. Pitt handed Louisville their first loss last week, which is right in line with the standard Pitt season of losing to bad teams and beating good teams.
Pittsburgh +1 -110 (3 units)
South Florida @ UConn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Longtime readers will know how much I love betting on UConn, often to my own detriment. This week will be no different- the Huskies have shown a pulse with a win over Rice and a one point loss to Utah State. South Florida has been on a rolller coaster this season- they were supposed to be awful, looked decent in September, and then the bottom has fallen back out in the last few weeks. I think these teams are close to even so I like UConn here.
UConn +2.5 -110 (2 units)
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
The MAC is a funny conference- there is no league in the country with more parity. At the start of the season it can be a challenge to separate the good teams from the bad. Now that the dust has settled a bit it’s clear that Northern Illinois is a contender- they beat MAC favorite Ohio last week. Chris Creighton has done an outstanding job in his tenure in Ypsilanti but this is not one of his better teams- they almost lost to UMass. UConn wasn’t enough for me- I’m picking another Husky team in this matchup.
Northern Illinois -12 -110 (1 unit)
Texas @ Houston (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
I circled this game on my calendar in the preseason as one to watch. Texas fans are irate at the prospect of having to travel to face a Houston program that they view as far beneath them. Unfortunately Texas has significantly overperformed expectations while Houston has underperformed, pushing this to a three touchdown spread. I do think the line is a little big though- Houston can really put up some points as you’d expect from a Dana Holgorsen offense.
Houston +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 7 2023
We’re roughly halfway through the season and we’re down to 11 unbeatens- 8 from the Power Five and 3 mid majors. No team has a greater than 50/50 shot at making it to 12-0, but the most likely case is that 2 teams make it there. I will take a wild guess and say that Michigan and Air Force are our two lucky teams who make it to 12-0.
Top 25
Numbers in parentheses indicate (a) ranking change from last week and (b) a team’s current betting odds of making the playoff.
Michigan (0, -155)
Ohio State (+1, +170)
Georgia (-1, -195)
Washington (+1, +125)
Texas (-1, +240)
LSU (+2, +1800)
Oregon (-1, +500)
Alabama (-1, +400)
Penn State (+6, +250)
Oklahoma (-1, +160)
Texas A&M (0)
Florida State (-2, -150)
Notre Dame (0, +2500)
Clemson (0)
Tennessee (-3, +2200)
Miami (+2)
Oregon State (+3, +1400)
Louisville (-2)
North Carolina (-2, +750)
USC (-1, +900)
Arizona (+7)
Kansas State (+8)
Missouri (+3)
Wisconsin (-3)
Utah (+2)
Washington won an all time classic against Oregon. Given how close the game was, they don’t move much in my ratings, but they do make a massive jump in playoff odds from +250 to +125. I have been lower than most on Penn State for most of the season but they shot up my ratings after evaporating UMass. Oregon State continued their solid season with a win over UCLA and has a good chance at their first major bowl bid in twenty years.
Moving Up
Unlike most, I had James Madison as the best team in the Sun Belt in the preseason but they have surpassed even my expectations. The Dukes beat a good Georgia Southern team by 28 and are neck and neck with Air Force and Tulane for the best team in the Group of Five. Vanderbilt was a 30 point underdog against Georgia and played the Bulldogs much closer than anyone could have expected. I’ve bet against Iowa each of the last two weeks but have been punished for it and the Hawkeyes have entered my top 40.
Moving Down
Unfortunately for those who follow my picks, the bottom might have fallen out for UMass as they lost 63-0 to Penn State. They have two more realistic chances at wins against Merrimack and UConn in November. South Florida has been on a roller coaster this year- they were the biggest surprise team of September before coming crashing down to earth with blowout losses to UAB and FAU, in games that were supposed to be coin flips. Washington State lost by 38 at home to Arizona and likely won’t sniff the top 25 for the rest of the season.
College Football Picks Week 7 2023
I broke even last week but it could have been a bit better. Both of my winners (Arizona and Texas Tech) covered by multiple touchdowns while my losers (Purdue and Texas A&M) both had real shots to cover. I also got my first preseason bet right as Texas A&M covered the +8.5 lookahead line I bet in August even as they failed to cover the +2.5 line I bet last week.
Preseason: +1.82 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Total: -7.43 units
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Iowa’s offense is so bad it defies logic. This was the case even before starting QB Cade McNamara went down with a season ending injury, but has been magnified since then- backup QB went 6/21 for 110 yards last weke. This game is going to be a total slugfest with bad weather- the total is in the mid 30s. I think that Wisconsin is a clear play here- their offense has improved significantly since their early loss to Washington State and they are multiple touchdowns better than a one dimensional Iowa squad.
Wisconsin -10 -110 (3 units)
Arizona @ Washington State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I have been all over the Arizona train for the last two weeks and am continuing it here. Backup QB Noah Fifita has started the last two and has been a revelation, throwing for 8 TDs and 2 INTs against Washington and USC. The Wildcats are up to the 30s in my ratings, their highest perch in half a decade. Washington State has always been a bit worse than their AP ranking would suggest and these teams are pretty even in my book.
Arizona +8 -110 (2 units)
BYU @ TCU (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Most of the games I bet, I have a pretty good guess for what the Vegas line will be and have an inkling in advance what the Vegas line will be. This was not one of those games- I was sure this line was going to be in the double digits and was shocked to see it at 5. TCU had every single bounce go their way last year and this year has seen the other side of close game variance, BYU is a decent team but TCU is not far outside my top 25.
TCU -5 -110 (2 units)
Akron @ Central Michigan (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I highlighted Central Michigan in my ratings post this week as a team on the downswing- the Chippewas must be the worst 3-3 team in the country, they just got evaporated by a bad Buffalo team. I’ve been bullish on Akron all year and they are really unlucky to only have 1 win, most notably they lost a 4OT game to Indiana. CMU deserves to be viewed as a bottom tier MAC team.
Akron +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
San Jose State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
New Mexico is really bad- definitely among the bottom 10 teams in FBS, if not the bottom 5. However, I don’t really think San Jose State should be a touchdown road favorite over almost any FBS team. The Spartans have fallen off significantly since their miracle 2020 season and are now a bottom 25 team in FBS.
New Mexico +8 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 6 2023
The Red River Rivalry never disappoints and this year’s game was no exception. The middle of the Big 12 is so weak that a Texas/Oklahoma rematch in the conference title game is more likely than not- there is not a single other team from the conference in my top 25.
Top 25
Michigan
Georgia
Ohio State (+1)
Texas (-1)
Washington
Oregon
Alabama (+4)
LSU (+1)
Oklahoma (+4)
Florida State
Texas A&M (-3)
Tennessee (+2)
Notre Dame (-6)
Clemson (-2)
Penn State
Louisville (+4)
North Carolina (+2)
Miami (-2)
USC (-2)
Oregon State (-2)
Wisconsin (+4)
UCLA
Duke
Florida (+3)
Ole Miss (-1)
Oklahoma moves into the top 10 for the first time all season. I was low on the Sooners in the preseason- I had them 24th, which was lower than pretty much anyone else. I have to eat some crow on that now as their path to the playoff is crystal clear. Louisville got a humongous win against Notre Dame to move to their highest ranking of the year. The ACC schedule is a bit of a mess as the 3 undefeated teams (Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina) all don’t play each other so there are no obvious losses for any of the 3- the Cardinals have a real shot at a 10 or 11 win season. Wisconsin has looked quite solid since their loss to Washington State and has established themselves as the clear favorites in the BIg Ten West ahead of a visit from Iowa this Saturday.
Moving Up
Few teams have had a more confusing season than Northern Illinois. The Huskies own a P5 win versus Boston College and a loss to FCS Southern Illinois. They were my biggest risers this week after a 41 point road win over Akron. Kansas has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, running for for 399 yards on 51 carries against a good UCF team- the Jayhawks should beat Oklahoma State this week to set up a ranked matchup against Oklahoma in two weeks. Michigan continues to evaporate bad teams (Minnesota was this week’s victim) and JJ McCarthy’s rate stats remain unbelievable.
Moving Down
South Florida was one of the biggest risers in September- their recent win over Navy was their first road win since 2019. They fell back down to earth hard this week with a 21 point loss to a bad UAB team. Kentucky looked like they might be a 9-3 type team but were uncompetitive from the first snap against Georgia and have fallen back to 7-5 type territory. Questions are circling in Mount Pleasant around the future for Jim McElwain as Central Michigan has taken the Chippewas into the bottom 10 of my ratings.