College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 2
This is part 2 of 4 of my preseason bets series. In this installation I’ll tackle the rest of the Group of Five bets that I didn’t get to in part 1 of this series.
UMass Over 2 wins -130 (6 units)
UMass is one of the worst teams in FBS, finishing last year 127th out of 131 teams in my ratings. However, longtime readers of this site will know that I love to bet on the worst teams in the sport. I project significant improvement from the Minutemen this year and think they stand a very good chance of winning multiple games for the first time since 2018. They return 15 starters from last year’s squad and should have their most experienced team in years. Most importantly, they bring in transfer quarterback Taisun Phommachanh. Phommachanh is a former 4 star recruit who signed with Clemson out of high school- while he hasn’t lived up to that billing in college (otherwise he would not be at UMass), he’s the most talented QB to come through Amherst in a long time.
The schedule lines up nicely for the Minutemen. They’ll be a double digit favorite against FCS Merrimack, and I make them a favorite against New Mexico and Arkansas State as well. I make them a single digit underdog in 4 other games as well, they only play 3 teams in the top half of my ratings. 2023 UMass can emulate the success of 2022 UConn and be the surprise of the Northeast.
Texas State Under 4.5 wins -175 (4 units)
Texas State has been the most mismanaged program in FBS in recent years but finally made a good hire in Incarnate Word’s G.J. Kinne. I like the long term potential of this program in a fertile recruiting area but Kinne will take a bit to get going and the Bobcats have gone under 4.5 wins in each of the last 7 seasons. As you’d expect with the coaching change, they don’t return much talent and they’ll have horrible defensive numbers. Years of neglect on the recruiting trail have caught up to them as they have the worst recruiting ranking in my system of any team in FBS. 5 wins haven’t been seen in San Marcos since 2014 and I doubt that changes this year.
Troy Under 8 wins +135 (3 units)
Troy had a fantastic season last year going 12-2 and finishing #19 in the AP Poll, their first ranked finish in school history. They did get pretty lucky, only finishing 74th in my final ratings and winning a slew of close games. I expect the Trojans to regress a bit this year- they’re at about the 25th percentile for returning experience and are particularly light on the offensive line, which my model cares a lot about. This is still a good team but they significantly outperformed last year and I expect them to come back down to earth a bit with a 6-6 or 7-5 type season.
Colorado State Over 4.5 wins -165 (2 units)
This line doesn’t make much sense to me. Colorado State was not particularly good last year, but the same could be said about the whole Mountain West and they finished as the exact average team in the conference. They return an above average amount of talent and just signed their best recruiting class in school history, so they should improve a bit and become a top half team in the league.
South Alabama to win the Sun Belt West +155 (2 units)
The Sun Belt West was a two horse race between Troy and South Alabama last year and I expect the same this year. Troy went 12-2 and South Alabama went 10-3, the best season in recent history for each team. Given that I’m down on Troy it makes sense to bet on South Alabama to win the division- I’m not betting on the Jaguars’ win total because of their brutal non-conference slate but they’re the clear best team in the West. 18 starters return from last year’s team and they’re a sleeper pick for the NY6 if they can get through their brutal September schedule.
College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 1
College football season is just a few weeks away, so it’s time for me to start putting down some preseason bets. The preseason is my favorite time to bet on college football as I’ve had some good success betting win totals in recent years. I have quite a few bets this preseason so I’ve divided my picks by conference. Today I’ll tackle Conference USA, the MAC and the Mountain West.
Utah State Under 5 wins -125 (4 units)
Utah State went 6-7 last year, losing the First Responder Bowl to Memphis. However, they only got there via smoke and mirrors- they were a bottom 15 team in my ratings and scraped out a lot of wins against the dregs of the Mountain West, going 4-9 ATS. I see no reason for them to be better this year- they only return 9 starters and the core recruiting classes that make up this roster rank outside the top 100. The Aggies also play the toughest schedule in the conference, facing all of the league’s top 4 teams, as well as Iowa and James Madison in non-conference play. Unfortunately I am late to this one as the line was 5.5 a few weeks ago but this is still my favorite under bet of the season.
Louisiana Tech Under 6 wins +105 (3 units)
Perhaps no team has been hurt more by conference realignment than Louisiana Tech. When the Bulldogs joined Conference USA, it regularly had top 25 teams. Now they’re left behind in the worst league in FBS with no natural rivals. To make matters worse, I also think they’ll be quite bad this year. They were a bottom 10 outfit in FBS last year- the offense will improve with talented Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier at the helm, but the defense will be a sieve. They allowed a frightening 482 YPG in conference play last year and project to be even worse on that side of the ball. The roster, especially on defense, is littered with 2 stars and junior college players and I don’t think that’s enough to cut it even in this weakened CUSA.
Akron Over 4 wins -120 (3 units)
Akron might be the toughest place to win in FBS. They have to compete with a plethora of other MAC schools on the recruiting trail and they have no money. I was thus pretty shocked when they got a respected coach to come here in Joe Moorhead and I really like what he’s done. They went 2-10 last year but lost oodles of close games and actually outgained their opposition in MAC play. I project this year’s squad to be middle of the pack in the MAC and that is enough to challenge for a bowl game.
New Mexico State to make CUSA Title Game +1000 (2 units)
New Mexico State was one of the best stories in college football last year, going 7-6 despite having a preseason win total of 3. The highlight of the season was a 49-14 win over Liberty as a three touchdown underdog. I am bullish on NMSU and bearish on the main contenders in CUSA (Western Kentucky and Liberty) which makes this an easy bet. The Aggies have a proper QB in Diego Pavia and I think they’re a clear cut above the bottom few teams in the league. They’ll be decent underdogs in road games against Liberty and WKU but I think that this is fantastic value, it’s my favorite longshot bet of the preseason.
College Football Ratings 2022 Wrap-Up
It’s been a month since Georgia demolished TCU for the national championship, the end to a thrilling college football season. We had great rivalry games like Michigan/Ohio State and Alabama/LSU, great Cinderella stories like TCU and Tulane, and great players like Caleb Williams and Max Duggan. It’s time to see how my model sees the state of college football at the end of a wild 2022 season.
Picks Summary
I finished the season +9.31 units with 235.5 units bet, capped off by a nice bowl season where I won 6 units. I’m very happy to have finished in the black. After a disastrous week 1, I thought I was going to be headed for a second straight season in the red but things really turned around in the second half of the year. 2022 marked my fifth season of tracking all my picks, here are my all-time college football betting results:
2018: -5.88 units
2019: +30.71 units
2020: +34.36 units
2021: -34.75 units
2022: +9.31 units
Total: +33.75 units
Top 25
1. Georgia
2. Alabama (+3)
3. LSU (+5)
4. Ohio State (-1)
5. Penn State (-1)
6. Tennessee (+3)
7. Michigan (-5)
8. Texas (-2)
9. Florida State (-2)
10. Oregon State (+4)
11. Utah
12. Clemson (+1)
13. TCU (+2)
14. Mississippi State (+7)
15. Washington (+4)
16. Illinois (-4)
17. Ole Miss (+9)
18. Oregon
19. Notre Dame (-3)
20. Tulane (+5)
21. Kansas State (-11)
22. Louisville (+9)
23. UCLA (+13)
24. Texas A&M (+5)
25. Pittsburgh (-8)
Georgia finished the season not just first, but extremely far ahead of the rest of the pack. I would make the Bulldogs about a -190 moneyline favorite against Alabama in a hypothetical matchup. LSU has been a darling of my system all season and after a dominant 63-7 win over Purdue in the Citrus Bowl, they finish the season 3rd in my system, far higher than you’ll find them anywhere else. TCU rocketed up to 6th after beating Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl before crashing back down to earth after getting trashed by Georgia in the title game.
Moving Up
Fresno State (64th —> 44th) got off to a rocky 1-4 start to the season but finished with 9 wins in a row, sending out star senior QB Jake Haener in style with a dominant win over Washington State in the LA Bowl. Western Kentucky (86th —> 66th) has a star QB in their own in gunslinger Austin Reed. Reed will be coming back to WKU next year after leading the ‘Tops to a huge upset win over South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. Arkansas (40th —> 29th) had another good season in Sam Pittman’s 3rd season in Fayetteville, going 7-6 with a thrilling win over Kansas to cap the season.
Moving Down
Cincinnati (41st —> 54th) was shellacked by Louisville in the Fenway Bowl and their season kind of fell off the rails after their AAC title hopes were derailed after a loss to Tulane. Florida (27th —> 38th) nearly failed to score a point against Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl and must now face life without Anthony Richardson next year. Kansas State (10th —> 21st) went up a weight class when they faced Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and it showed in a 45-20 defeat that was not as close as the score indicated.
Bowl Game Picks 2022
I had two bets last weekend- Akron +11.5, which hit easily, and Utah to win the Pac-12 +240 which hit as well. The Utah win put me back into the black for the year. I am very happy to have made it back into positive territory- after my disastrous week 1, I thought I was going to be spending the whole season in the red.
Preseason: -5.71 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
Week 11: -0.72 units
Week 12: -3.18 units
Week 13: +8.00 units
Week 14: +0.91 units
2022 Total: +3.16 units
Houston vs. Louisiana (Independence Bowl, December 23rd, 2 PM Central)
Houston has been a weird team this year. They got a lot of hype in the preseason as a dark horse playoff contender and they showed it at times, like in a 42-3 win over East Carolina. However, they also put up some shocking defensive performances, allowing 77 to SMU and letting Temple and Tulsa into the 30s. The fact remains that they have massively more talent than Louisiana though, and I think they will win easily in a high scoring affair.
Houston -6.5 -115 (3 units)
Wyoming vs. Ohio (Arizona Bowl, December 30th, 3:30 PM Central)
Ohio made it to the MAC title game once again, and lost once again. The Bobcats still have not won a conference title since the 1960s, although just getting to the championship game was an achievement for the Bobcats given how bad they were in Tim Albin’s first year. Wyoming is a pretty fraudulent 7-5, the Cowboys only made it to a bowl by scraping past some bad Colorado State and Hawai’i teams. I think the Mountain West as a whole is pretty bad this year and think Ohio should be a decent favorite here.
Ohio -1 -110 (3 units)
Minnesota vs. Syracuse (Pinstripe Bowl, December 29th, 1 PM Central)
Minnesota rocketed into the top 10 of my ratings back in October before a losing skid to Purdue and Illinois. I do still have the Gophers in my top 25 though- far above a Syracuse team that looked absolutely awful from Halloween onwards. I think that the Syracuse we’ve seen in the last few weeks is a lot more representative of the Orange than the squad that dashed off to a 6-0 start, Minnesota should roll here.
Minnesota -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Florida State vs. Oklahoma (Cheez-It Bowl, December 29th, 4:30 PM Central)
These are two proud programs who are feeling very differently about their seasons. Florida State has a ton of room for optimism and should be the favorites to win the ACC next year. Oklahoma had their worst year since the 90s and might be entering the SEC in 2024 on the shakiest footing the program has been on this millennium. I’ve been a buyer of Florida State all season and will continue to do so here with a small play on the Seminoles.
Florida State -7 -105 (1 unit)
Pre-Bowl Games Top 25
Conference championship weekend delivered a few upsets with Kansas State, Utah and Fresno State all winning as underdogs. We’re now headed into the postseason with a playoff of the top 3 teams in my ratings and #15 TCU. I don’t have any picks for the playoff games as my model largely agrees with the lines of Michigan -8 and Georgia -6.5, my picks for other bowl games are in the next post.
Top 25
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Alabama
Texas
Florida State
LSU (+1)
Tennessee (-1)
Kansas State
Utah (+2)
Illinois (-1)
Clemson (+4)
Oregon State
TCU (-3)
Notre Dame (-1)
Pittsburgh (-1)
Oregon
Washington
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Texas Tech
Houston (+2)
Kentucky
Tulane (+12)
Both Penn State and Florida State did not get a lot of hype this year despite being very solid teams. Both teams will return their quarterbacks next year along with plenty of other contributors and I expect to see them in the preseason top 10. I’ve been a big seller of Clemson all year but they were dominating in a win over North Carolina and are favored in their bowl against a depleted Tennessee team.
College Football Picks Week 14 2022
Last week was one of my best of the season, I pushed Auburn +22 and hit all my other bets. West Virginia won outright as a +255 ML underdog and Texas Tech won in overtime against Oklahoma. Unfortunately I marked a few of my preseason bets to losers. Most notably, I had 5 units on UTEP over 5.5 wins. I needed the Miners to win as a 17 point underdog against UTSA and they raced out to a 24-0 lead before losing on a last second field goal.
In addition to my one pick below, I also have one preseason bet outstanding- I have 2 units on Utah to win the Pac-12 at +240, the bet is a bit in the money as the Utes are +130 underdogs against USC on Friday night.
Preseason: -10.51 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
Week 11: -0.72 units
Week 12: -3.18 units
Week 13: +8.00 units
2022 Total: -2.55 units
Akron @ Buffalo (Friday, Noon Central)
This is the one game this weekend that is not a conference championship game. This game was postponed when the big snowstorm hit Buffalo a few weeks ago and has been rescheduled because the Bulls are 5-6 and need one more win to make a bowl. I’ve been high on Akron all season and they’re unlucky to be 2-9 as they’ve lost numerous close games. They finally got on the board with their first FBS win against Northern Illinois last week in blowout fashion, and I think that’s closer to their true level.
Akron +11.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 13 2022
Rivalry week delivered across the board- the headline was Michigan beating Ohio State but the undercard was great as well. It was a particularly nice weekend on the west coast- I went to a fun UCLA/Cal game on Friday, and on Saturday Oregon State and Washington both won thrillers against their in-state rivals.
Top 25
Georgia
Michigan (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Penn State (+1)
Alabama (+2)
Texas (+3)
Florida State (-1)
Tennessee (+2)
LSU (-5)
Kansas State (-2)
Illinois
TCU (+2)
Utah (+4)
Oregon State (+1)
Notre Dame (-2)
Pittsburgh (+7)
Clemson (+2)
Oregon (-6)
Washington (+14)
Minnesota (+4)
Mississippi State (-3)
Texas Tech (-1)
USC (-1)
Kentucky (+2)
Houston (-9)
Michigan beat Ohio State in dominating fashion and moves into the top 2 for the first time all year. I would make the Wolverines around 3.5 point underdogs against Georgia in a hypothetical national title game. Illinois is finishing the season higher here than they are in almost any other computer model- I was impressed with the Illini, their losses were all pretty competitive and they beat some solid teams (like Wisconsin) by a lot.
Moving Up
Georgia Tech (82nd → 51st) was a lot more competitive than I expected with Georgia. The Yellow Jackets far exceeded my expectations for them this season, and it sounds like they’re bringing in Tulane coach Willie Fritz which would be a fantastic hire. Tulsa (81st → 62nd) pulled off an upset win over Houston but regardless is letting go of Phillip Montgomery as they failed to get to a bowl this year. New Mexico State (127th → 109th) pulled off the biggest surprise of the season, thrashing Liberty as a 4 touchdown underdog.
Moving Down
Liberty (56th → 83rd) was nearly ranked a few weeks ago but has lost 3 games in a row as double digit favorites to UConn, Virginia Tech and New Mexico State. Northern Illinois (99th → 119th) was the shock winner of the MAC last year but has come back down to earth and will miss a bowl. Rutgers (93rd → 107th) showed some signs of life in mid year but finished 4-8.
College Football Picks Week 13 2022
Last week was a tough one. Pitt (-7.5) was driving late up 8 and failed to pick up a fourth down, and then failed to cover. Temple came close to covering +17.5 but lost by 20. The only pick I hit was Kansas State, who won easily at West Virginia.
A few of my preseason bets settled this week. USC under 9.5 wins had about a 20% chance of hitting but the Trojans picked up their 10th win against UCLA. Thankfully, they only won by 3 so my UCLA +3.5 bet from the preseason hit. I got some extremely fortunate results elsewhere- Florida under 7 wins looked like a push but the Gators shockingly lost to Vanderbilt, so they will head into the Florida State game at 6-5. Similarly, UCF under 8.5 wins remains alive after a shock loss to Navy.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a buyer of Texas Tech all year and am continuing to do so here. The Red Raiders have been an awesome team to watch with incredible fourth down aggression and a great win over Texas early in the season. Oklahoma has recovered from their mid season slump but the Sooners are still a middle of the pack Big 12 team at best. I like Texas Tech to win outright here.
Texas Tech +2 -110 (3 units)
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This is the rare case where I bet against a team one week and am betting on them the next week. I hit on Kansas State -7.5 against West Virginia last week but am on the Mountaineers here. I think Oklahoma State has been overvalued for a while, they lost in OT to TCU but have since gotten pretty injured and got torn to pieces by Kansas State. My numbers actually say that these are the two worst teams in the conference, and OK State is better but not by as much as the line suggests.
West Virginia +8.5 -110 (2 units)
West Virginia ML +255 (1 unit)
Auburn @ Alabama (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Auburn is another team that I’ve been high on all season and I’ll continue to buy them here. I’ve been very impressed with the Tigers under interim HC Cadillac Williams- they trounced a good WKU team last week, beat Auburn in a rockfight and nearly beat Mississippi State. I think the TIgers are around the 40th best team in the country and it’s hard to justify a 3 touchdown spread in that case.
Auburn +22 -110 (2 units)
Syracuse @ Boston College (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Syracuse started 6-0 but the bottom has fallen out of their season as they are now 6-5 and the rumors are swirling around Dino Babers’ job. Boston College has had a lost season but I’ve been able to buy them in some nice spots, like when they beat NC State as a +750 underdog a few weeks ago. I’m going to do so again here- I think people are too fixated on Syracuse’s hot start, their true talent level has come to the surface in recent weeks.
Boston College +10.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 12 2022
Week 12 promised a lot of chaos but delivered only a small amount. Last week, I highlighted the 9 teams with legitimate chances of making the playoff. Two of them (Tennessee and North Carolina) lost, knocking them out of contention. However, two others (Michigan and TCU) looked likely to lose until some late heroics led them to wins.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
LSU (+5)
Penn State
Florida State (+2)
Alabama (-1)
Kansas State (-1)
Texas (+1)
Tennessee (-6)
Illinois (+7)
Oregon (-1)
Notre Dame (+6)
TCU (-2)
Oregon State
Houston (+20)
Utah (-4)
Mississippi State (+3)
Clemson (+8)
Baylor (-3)
Texas Tech (+2)
USC (-6)
Pittsburgh (-9)
Minnesota (+4)
UCLA (-5)
My model has warmed up to LSU faster than most. I know I’m in the minority to have the Tigers #2 in the SEC (most models will have Alabama higher and some will have Tennessee as well) but they covered with ease against a decent UAB team. I think the Tigers might end up being only a single digit underdog aginst Georgia in the SEC title game. Notre Dame continues to climb up the rankings and should make a NY6 bowl if they beat USC this weekend. Houston was a small underdog against East Carolina and dominated the Pirates 42-3. They were tipped as a fringe playoff contender in the preseason and we finally saw that upside for the first time in that game.
Moving Up
It should be no surprise to see South Carolina (81st → 42nd) at the top of this list. Spencer Rattler’s transfer from Oklahoma was much-discussed and he showed his potential for the first time all year in a dominating performance against Tennessee. Maryland (63rd → 35th) has had an up and down season but played admirably close against Ohio State. Middle Tennessee (107th → 91st) punched their ticket to a bowl game with a win over Florida Atlantic and looks to have quieted any questions about Rick Stockskill’s job.
Moving Down
East Carolina (39th → 72nd) got trucked by Houston. I thought that the Pirates were knocking on the door of the top of the AAC but after this loss they’re headed to a low-tier bowl game. Miami (56th → 77th) continues their descent down the rankings with a horrendous offensive performance against Clemson. The Hurricanes need an upset win against Pitt to make a bowl game in Mario Cristobal’s first season. Florida Atlantic (85th → 103rd) and the questions are swirling about Willie Taggart’s job as the Owls get ready to jump to the AAC next year. The Owls travel to Western Kentucky this weekend and Taggart, a WKU alum, probably needs an upset win in that game to keep his job.
Week 12 College Football Playoff Picture
With only two weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is becoming much clearer. It’s hard to put precise estimates on the probability that each team makes the playoff, as it requires making some estimates about what resumes the playoff committee will select. The committee has only been faced with one legitimate decision (2017 Alabama vs. Ohio State) in the 7 years of the playoff, so it’s not like college basketball bracketology where we have quite a large dataset to draw on to make these estimates.
The table below is my best guess for how the committee would rank the possible resumes. The column on the right shows my model’s probability that this particular resume ends up existing after the conference title games. Note that many of these scenarios are mutually exclusive with each other- for example, we can’t have a 13-0 Georgia and an 11-2 LSU. An asterisk next to a team indicates that they are a conference champion in the scenario in question.
The 9 teams who I’ll discuss below all have yes/no markets on their odds to make the playoff. I think that the market is assigning some probability to a team not on this list (Utah? Oregon? Alabama?) making the playoff, I’ve lumped them into the “other” category. The table below shows what the betting markets imply each team’s odds of making the playoff are.
SEC
Georgia is in by far the best position of any team. They would have to lose twice to be in legitimate danger of missing the playoff. The most likely scenario in which they’re not in the field features them losing to Kentucky as a 21 point favorite and then again to LSU as a 10 point favorite.
Tennessee is in a very interesting position. The Volunteers were -115 to make the playoff before losing to Georgia. I think I missed a big opportunity in betting “yes” at that number as their odds have only gotten better even since the Georgia loss. They are quite likely to win out, I give them an 83% chance of beating both South Carolina and Vanderbilt. If that happens, they’re quite likely to make the field but do not control their own destiny. They need at least two of USC, LSU and TCU to lose a game. Luckily for the Vols, that is quite likely to happen.
LSU is in a pretty simple position. The Tigers are almost surely in if they win out and have almost no chance if they take another loss. I make them -13 against UAB, -10 against Texas A&M and +10 against Georgia in the SEC title game.
Big Ten
The single most important game left in the playoff hunt is the Michigan/Ohio State game in Columbus on November 26th. My projected line on the game is now Ohio State -6.5, a far cry from the Ohio State -14 or so it would’ve been a few months ago. The winner of the game will be a substantial favorite (somewhere between 2 and 3 touchdowns) against the Big Ten West champion in the conference title game.
I view the Wolverines and the Buckeyes’ resumes pretty similarly. Both teams are locks at 13-0, likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl as the 2 seed. If either team wins the Big Ten East and loses a fluke game to Purdue or Iowa in the Big Ten title game, I think they’re still quite likely to get in. At 11-1 with a loss to the other, I think they fall behind 12-1 USC, 12-1 Big 12 champion TCU and 11-1 Tennessee in the pecking order but ahead of 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 UNC.
Big 12/Pac-12/ACC
TCU controls their own destiny. They’re obviously a lock if they’re undefeated. A 12-1 Horned Frogs team that wins the Big 12 (with the loss to say, Baylor) looks a lot better than a 12-1 team that loses in the conference title game. I think this weekend’s game with Baylor is a coin flip, I make the Frogs -9 against Iowa State, and make them small underdogs to Kansas State in a potential rematch in the conference title game.
I think that USC’s odds are quite good if they finish 12-1. However, it’s a gauntlet to get there. This weekend’s game against UCLA is pretty much a coin flip. I think they’re -4 or so at home against Notre Dame next week, and then the Pac-12 championship game against Utah or Oregon is also a coin flip. A 12-1 USC is not a lock for the playoff (especially if say, LSU wins out) but they’d be looking quite good.
Clemson and North Carolina are both near the bottom of the pecking order. Clemson has two wins over current top 25 teams (Florida State and NC State) and North Carolina has none. I think that a 12-1 Clemson is marginally better positioned than a 12-1 UNC because of this, but both teams fall below an 11-1 Ohio State or Michigan in my eyes. Clemson has around a 70% chance of making it to the ACC title game undefeated and UNC has a 55% chance. I think that the Tigers should be about -4 or so when these two teams meet in Charlotte for the conference title on December 3rd.
College Football Picks Week 12 2022
Last week was a mixed bag. Boston College won outright as a +750 underdog which was fantastic. However, there was some bad luck in the other games. South Florida lost by 18 as a +17.5 underdog after electing to go for 2 down 18. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham got injured and the Cardinals were not competitive with Clemson once he went down.
In addition to the bets below, I also have 2 units on UCLA +3.5 against USC this weekend, which I bet in the preseason.
Preseason: +1.88 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
Week 11: -0.72 units
2022 Total: +5.02 units
Duke @ Pittsburgh (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Duke is having a fantastic season- I thought they had almost no shot at a bowl, but they’re 7-3 and will make a bowl easily in Mike Elko’s first year. However, I still think the talent level on their roster is pretty poor compared to Pitt’s. The Panthers’ defense has really stepped up in recent weeks and their OT loss to Tennessee looks better and better as the season goes along. I think that these teams are still in pretty different weight classes.
Pittsburgh -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Kansas State @ West Virginia (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
Kansas State has had a very weird few weeks. They’ve shown flashes of being a top 5 team with blowout wins over Kansas State and Baylor, but have also lost close games to TCU and Texas. In total, they look like a top 10 team. West Virginia just fired their AD and it seems very likely that head coach Neal Brown’s time in Morgantown is coming to an end. Even in their wins, the Mountaineers defense has been porous and the K-State rushing attack will have their way here.
Kansas State -7 -110 (2 units)
Cincinnati @ Temple (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Cincinnati has had a weird season- everyone forgot about them after they lost to Arkansas in week 1. They’re now 8-2, but they’ve performed quite poorly against the spread and haven’t dominated the bad teams they’ve played. Temple proved in their win over USF that they’re far from the bottom of the AAC and I think they can keep this within two touchdowns.
Temple +17.5 -110 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech @ Liberty (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Liberty had a chance to break into the CFP top 25 for the first time in program history but lost as a 14 point favorite to UConn last week. However, for maybe the first time in the history of college football, UConn may be a better team than Virginia Tech. The Hokies have been downright awful this year and got blown off the field by Duke last week. Liberty should roll here.
Liberty -9.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 11 2022
Week 11 was light in terms of huge headline results but there was a lot of fun under the surface. LSU won the SEC West with a big win against Arkansas while Texas A&M clinched last place in the division with their loss to Auburn. This coming week will tell us a lot more about conference races- the top 4 teams in the Pac-12 collide, the Big Ten West is open for the taking and Kansas State looks to sow up a spot in the Big 12 title game.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee (+1)
Penn State (+4)
Alabama (-2)
Kansas State (+1)
Florida State (+5)
LSU (-3)
Texas (-3)
Oregon
TCU (+8)
Utah (+6)
Pittsburgh (+9)
Oregon State (+6)
USC (+2)
Baylor (-3)
Illinois (-3)
Notre Dame (-7)
UCLA (-10)
Mississippi State (-4)
Florida (+9)
Texas Tech (+2)
Louisville (-8)
Ole Miss (+14)
I think that Penn State has gone too far under the radar this season. They lost to Michigan and Ohio State by multiple scores but have destroyed almost every other team on their schedule. The Nittany Lions should finish the regular season 10-2 and are likely looking at an Orange Bowl bid and potential top 5 preseason ranking next year. Florida State has pummeled Georgia Tech, Miami and Syracuse in their last three games and I’m fairly confident they’re the best team in the ACC. They have enough talent on their roster that they should be the league favorites next year. Florida is doing an admirable job of keeping their head above water in BIlly Napier’s first year and figures to have a solid 8-5 type season with a January bowl.
Moving Up
Arizona (76th → 43rd) got their biggest win in years on the road against UCLA on Saturday night. The Wildcats have a feisty quarterback in Washington State transfer Jayden De Laura and are much improved from last year’s 1-11 outfit. Navy (96th → 74th) fell behind early against Notre Dame but nearly came back to win. Some questions have been asked about Ken Niumatalolo’s job in Annapolis but after this performance, a win over Army should be enough for him to stay. Vanderbilt (100th → 80th) picked up their first SEC win since 2019 and finally looks competitive with the bottom end of the conference.
Moving Down
The wheels have completely fallen off for Syracuse (50th → 86th). Florida State vaporized them 38-3 and the Orange now travel to face a tricky Wake Forest team as they look to end a 4 game losing streak. The same can be said about Maryland (38th → 63rd) who was in my top 20 not long ago but failed to show up against Penn State. Virginia (65th → 94th) threw two pick sixes on the first two plays of the game against Pitt. The Cavaliers will face rival Virginia Tech on Thanksgiving Saturday as both teams look to end a horrible season with a win over a rival.
College Football Picks Week 11 2022
Last week was an absolute dream as I posted my best week of the year. The highlight was LSU winning outright as a +400 underdog. The Tigers were my first moneyline underdog to hit in a few weeks and brings my total return from betting moneylines this year back into the black. Nebraska also jumped out to an early lead and held on to cover +14.5 against Minnesota, and the Oregon State defense mounted a valiant end of game stand to cover +4.5.
I cashed two more winners in my preseason bets this week. Bowling Green is now 5-4 so over 4.5 wins -145 is a winner. I also bet Notre Dame +2.5 against Clemson in August and the Fighting Irish covered easily.
Preseason: +0.99 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
2022 Total: +4.85 units
Louisville @ Clemson (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Clemson all year and am continuing to sell more here. The Tigers kept winning games in strange fashions all year and should have lost to one or multiple of Florida State, Wake Forest and Syracuse. Combine the Tigers with a Louisville team that I’ve been high on all year and this is a very clear bet for me. I’m also doubling down on my risk here as my Clemson Under 10.5 wins will hit as well if Louisville wins.
Louisville +8 -110 (4 units)
Louisville ML +240 (1 unit)
Boston College @ NC State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Boston College has been positively awful this season. Their win over Louisville is one of the most surprising results of the season as their offensive line is one of the worst in FBS. However, NC State should not be a 20 point favorite over many Power Five teams. The Wolfpack have a fantastic defense with multiple future NFL players. However, their QB play has been lacking since Devin Leary got hurt and they cannot run up the scoreboard. This reeks of a boring 23-13 type game where Boston College is never able to get going on offense but covers easily.
Boston College +20 -110 (3 units)
Boston College ML +750 (0.5 units)
SMU @ South Florida (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
South Florida let go of head coach Jeff Scott on Sunday in an unsurprising move. The Bulls had just one win over FBS opposition in his two and a half years at the helm. While they are the worst team in the conference, I don’t think they should be getting two and a half touchdowns at home against an average AAC team in SMU. The Mustangs put up 77 points against Houston last week but have one of the worst defenses in FBS. The total in this game is set at an explosive 72 and I expect some fireworks, but South Florida should be able to keep this within a few touchdowns.
South Florida +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Louisville ML/Boston College ML +2790 (0.2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 10 2022
This past Saturday was an all-time classic. Georgia ended up having very little trouble with Tennessee in the most anticipated game of the weekend. The real fun though was in the night session, where LSU beat Alabama to take control of the SEC West and Notre Dame handed Clemson their first loss of the season.
Top 25
Georgia (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Michigan (+2)
Alabama (-1)
Tennessee (-1)
LSU (+1)
Texas (+1)
Kansas State (-2)
Penn State (+1)
UCLA (+3)
Oregon
Notre Dame (+9)
Florida State (+2)
Baylor (+5)
Illinois (-6)
Louisville (+6)
Mississippi State (-3)
USC
Utah (-7)
TCU (-4)
Oregon State (-4)
Iowa (+22)
Pittsburgh (+22)
Kansas (+18)
Texas Tech (+6)
We have a new #1 in my ratings as Georgia has taken the top spot back from Ohio State. The Bulldogs have around a two in three chance to make it to the SEC championship game undefeated and might be a lock for the playoff. Louisville has turned their season around and dominated a solid James Madison team on Saturday. The Cardinals have the chance for a program-defining win on the road against Clemson this weekend. Iowa has been much maligned for their offensive ineptitude this year but their defense is maybe the best in the country and they showed it in a 24-3 win over Purdue.
Moving Up
I’ve never seen a team jump so much from a loss as Northwestern (109th → 66th). The Wildcats played a crazy game against Ohio State where they lost 21-7 in a windstorm. Northwestern actually outgained Ohio State and could’ve won the game if not for going 0/4 on 4th down. Pittsburgh (44th → 22nd) is playing fantastic defense and did not allow Syracuse to score a touchdown on Saturday. The Panthers’ OT loss to Tennessee looks much better than it did at the time and they should be favorites in all 3 remaining games. Michigan State (83rd → 62nd) played their best game of the season and beat Illinois on the road. The Spartans look likely to sneak into a bowl game as wins over Indiana and Rutgers will get them there.
Moving Down
James Madison (55th → 79th) was in the 30s in my ratings a month ago but has crashed back down to earth. The Dukes have exceeded expectations for their first season in FBS but their lower scholarship count is starting to set in as the rigors of a full season take their toll. Purdue (24th → 46th) was a darling of my model early in the season and was in my top 10 at one point. They still could win the Big Ten West, but their blowout loss to Iowa will make it a lot tougher. South Florida (88th → 104th) suffered a blowout loss to fellow AAC bottom dweller Temple. The Bulls fired head coach Jeff Scott after a disastrous 2.5 years that saw them win only a single game against FBS competition.
College Football Picks Week 10 2022
Preseason: -0.61 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
2022 Total: -6.11 units
Last week was a mixed bag once again. East Carolina won on a last minute field goal and Oregon dominated Cal by a lot more than the 18 point margin showed. However I was way off on Auburn and Fresno State needed a miracle onside kick to beat San Diego State outright.
I cashed one winner from my preseason bets this weekend (Georgia -15.5 against Florida) and one loser (FIU under 3 wins +100). The FIU bet is frustrating, they should’ve lost to a horrible Bryant team in week 1. I do have to give some credit to the Golden Panthers though as they are a lot better than I thought they were going to be going into the season.
I would also note that I would be playing Notre Dame +4.5 this week at home against Clemson if I hadn’t already bet this game in the preseason. I think it is instructive of how overrated Clemson is in the public perception that the line was Clemson -2.5 in August and despite Clemson being 8-0 and Notre Dame being 5-3, it has only moved two points.
Minnesota @ Nebraska (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Every Sunday I look at the week’s schedule and guess what all the lines will be without looking at my model or the actual lines. I’m normally within 3 points and almost always within 6 but I was absolutely floored when I saw this line, and my model agrees. Minnesota is decent, not the top 10 team I thought they were a month ago, but solidly the second best team in the Big Ten West. Nebraska is not a dumpster fire though- they are a middle of the pack FBS team. Minnesota is not good enough to justify this line- I know that Nebraska has an interim coach, but these teams are pretty even on talent and I can’t buy that Minnesota should be a 2 touchdown road favorite.
Nebraska +14.5 +100 (4 units)
Nebraska ML +500 (1 unit)
Alabama @ LSU (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’ve been a buyer of LSU all season and will continue to buy them here as I think this spread is pretty rich. I have Alabama 3rd and LSU 7th in my ratings, there is a big gap from the top 5 to everyone else but not enough to justify this sort of spread. LSU is one of the few teams in the country that has the athletes to compete with Alabama and Jayden Daniels has improved tremendously at the QB position in recent weeks. I think that LSU can keep this game pretty close.
LSU +13.5 -115 (2 units)
LSU ML +400 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ Washington (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
This is going to be a fantastic game between two solid, up and coming teams who play very fun football. I have been a buyer of Oregon State all year and it has worked well for me, I just need one more win from the 6-2 Beavers to cash my over 6.5 wins ticket. They have beaten every team they’ve played outside the top 15. Washington has regressed a bit in recent weeks with a loss to Arizona State and a closer than desired win over Cal. I think that Oregon State is marginally better than Washington so like betting them as a 4.5 point underdog in Seattle.
Oregon State +4.5 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ SMU (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Houston has been a disappointment last year as they were talked about as a fringe playoff contender in the preseason and they are only 5-3. However they have beaten up on some bad teams recently and are actually now in the 30s in my rankings. They’re a much more talented team than SMU and while their results this season have been a bit subpar I think they’re a marginally better team.
Houston +3 -110 (1 unit)
Nebraska ML/LSU ML +3011 (0.2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 9 2022
As the calendar turns to November, conference title races around the country are heating up. It’s been an interesting mix this year with some conference races being led by the favorites (Clemson in the ACC, Oregon in the Pac-12) while others have seen surprise teams out front (TCU and Kansas State in the Big 12, Tulane in the American). As the season moves along I may have more posts previewing conference title races and the playoff picture as well.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Tennessee (+1)
Michigan (-1)
Kansas State (+6)
LSU (-1)
Texas (-1)
Illinois
Penn State (+1)
Oregon (-3)
Utah (-2)
UCLA (+8)
Mississippi State (-1)
Florida State (+4)
TCU (-1)
Oregon State (+3)
USC (-4)
Baylor (+10)
Clemson (+3)
Notre Dame (+18)
Louisville (+23)
Arkansas (+11)
Purdue (+3)
Texas A&M (+6)
Kansas State blew out Oklahoma State 48-0 in what has to be one of the most shocking results of the season just far. The Wildcats have been a solid team all year that has suffered some bad injury luck. A huge game with Texas looms this week, win that and they are quite likely to make the Big 12 title game. Baylor is another Big 12 team who is higher in my ratings than one would naively expect from their record. The depth of the Big 12 is so strong this year with 11 of the 12 teams in my top 50. Scott Satterfield looked dead to rights at Louisville earlier in the season but after a strange win over Wake Foest they re-enter my top 25.
Moving Up
North Texas (95th → 67th) went on the road and beat fellow CUSA favorite Western Kentucky by 4 scores. The Mean Green had a shaky start to the year but now look likely to face off with UTSA in the CUSA title game. Oklahoma (52nd → 33rd) is a lot better than I feared after a 3 game losing streak and controlled Iowa State easily in a win. UCF (44th → 26th) played a tremendous game to beat Cincinnati and is now my top G5 team in the country.
Moving Down
Oklahoma State (17th → 50th) failed to show up in a blowout loss to Kansas State. My model overreacts to blowouts in the short term so I think they’ve fallen a bit too far, but they’re nowhere near the playoff contender they were talked about as a few weeks ago. NC State (40th → 59th) squeaked past an awful Virginia Tech team. I don’t understand why they are ranked in the polls, they’ve been absolutely terrible since Devin Leary got hurt. Rice (108th → 123rd) was on the path to bowl eligibility and got destroyed at home by an awful Charlotte team that just fired its head coach.
College Football Picks Week 9 2022
Last week was tough, as I whiffed really badly on Purdue. Cincinnati was winning all game, but SMU got an unfortunate backdoor cover as they scored a touchdown and missed the two point conversion down 8. Syracuse covered easily and looked to have a shot at winning outright before some late penalties did them in.
Preseason: +0.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
2022 Total: -4.47 units
East Carolina @ BYU (Friday, 6 PM Central)
These are two teams whose seasons are moving in opposite directions. East Carolina’s season was looking a bit shaky after a weird loss to Navy, but they got a big over UCF last week and are looking to get back in the AAC title chase. BYU has been horrible the last few weeks, highlighted by a blowout loss to Liberty last week. I think East Carolina is the better team and should be favored here.
East Carolina +3.5 -110 (4 units)
San Diego State @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
San Diego State finished last year ranked, and while they were expected to regress last year, I don’t think anyone expected this. The Aztecs are a sub-100 team who won’t even sniff a bowl this year. Fresno State has been a bit disappointing this year as well but I don’t think the market realizes just how bad this San Diego State team is.
Fresno State -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Coastal Carolina has had a weird year where their record is quite good but they have some close wins against bad teams. Marshall has had quite an up-and-down year themselves with a win over Notre Dame in South Bend and a loss to a mediocre Bowling Green team. I think people give too much weight to Coastal Carolina’s record, which is a bit of a sham. Marshall is the marginally better team.
Marshall -1.5 -110 (2 units)
Oregon @ California (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Oregon has been hugely impressive since their week 1 demolition at the hands of Georgia. Bo Nix and the Ducks offense looked pretty much unstoppable last week against UCLA and the Ducks have to be considered the favorites to win the Pac-12 now. Cal, meanwhile, has been even worse than predicted this year with a horrible loss to Colorado a few weeks ago being the icing on the cake.
Oregon -14.5 -110 (2 units)
Arkansas @ Auburn (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I had decently high expectations for Arkansas in the preseason but they’ve failed to meet them. The Razorbacks are headed for a 6-6 type season, which is perfectly fine for them, but not as good as the top 10 heights they reached at times last year. Auburn is 3-4 but has played a brutal schedule featuring trips to Ole Miss and Georgia. Auburn is such a mess behind the scenes and because of that I don’t think people realize the product on the field is pretty decent, just the victims of a tough schedule.
Auburn +4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 8 2022
The ranks of the undefeateds are falling quickly with Syracuse, UCLA and Ole Miss picking up their first losses on Saturday. That leaves only 6 undefeated teams, with Georgia and Tennessee facing off in two weeks, while Ohio State and Michigan will square off in Columbus the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan
Tennessee
LSU (+5)
Texas (-1)
Oregon (-1)
Illinois (-1)
Utah
Penn State (+15)
Kansas State (+8)
Mississippi State (-1)
USC (+1)
TCU (-6)
Syracuse (+1)
Oklahoma State (+11)
Kentucky (-4)
Florida State (-1)
Oregon State (+7)
UCLA (-8)
Texas Tech (+2)
Clemson (-1)
Wake Forest (+7)
Auburn (+4)
LSU was a darling of my model early in the season, and they’re back in the top 10 after a dominating win over Ole MIss. If it wasn’t for that fluky loss against Florida State to start the season, they’d be easily in the top 10 of the polls right now. I was ready to call it quits on Penn State after their putrid performance against Michigan but they surprised me with a dominating win over Minnesota. My model still hates Clemson more than anyone else I’ve seen, my model largely chalked up their win over Syracuse to penalty yardage.
Moving Up
I thought Wisconsin (62nd → 38th) was toast after their blowout loss to Illinois, but in hindsight that result speaks more about the Illini than the Badgers. Wisconsin dominated Purdue and has an interesting swing game against Maryland next. Liberty (81st → 60th) dominated BYU and would be undefeated if they had picked up a two point conversion against Wake Forest back in September. East Carolina (54th → 36th) beat UCF to pick up the best win of Scottie Montgomery’s tenure in Greenville and could be a contender in the American this year.
Moving Down
Minnesota (34th → 65th) was in the top 10 of my ratings less than a month ago, but has been in complete free fall since with blowout losses to Illinois and Penn State. BYU (60th → 85th) was whispering about the playoff in September before a three game losing skid sent them to 4-4. There may not be a team in the country having a more disappointing season than Miami (35th → 51st) who committed a whopping 8 turnovers in their blowout loss to Duke.
College Football Picks Week 8 2022
I lost a few units last week, the whole week turned on an ugly backdoor cover from Virginia Tech. I had Miami -7.5 and they were up by double digits all game before a late touchdown from the Hokies gave them the backdoor cover. I hit Tennessee ML but gave up those gains on Auburn ML and Kansas ML.
Preseason: +0.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
2022 Total: -2.20 units
Syracuse @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Syracuse has been one of the most surprising teams of the year for me. The Orange were just plain bad last year, going 5-7 in a weak ACC. They’ve been much better this year, as they showed last week when they posted a dominating 7 YPP at home against a shorthanded NC State. I’ve bet against Clemson a few times this year with mixed results but I still think the Tigers are pretty overvalued- their three most recent wins have all been closer than the score suggested. I think Syracuse can keep this one close.
Syracuse +13.5 -110 (3 units)
Syracuse ML +400 (1 unit)
Purdue @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
On Sunday afternoons I try to guess the week’s lines without looking at my model. I’m almost always within a few points, but I was wildly off on this game. Wisconsin is yet to beat a team in my top 100 this season and has gotten run off the field by the two top 25 teams they’ve played. Purdue has been a darling of my ratings for some time and has two close losses against good teams. I expected Purdue to be a modest favorite here and will gladly take them as an underdog.
Purdue +2.5 -110 (3 units)
Cincinnati @ SMU (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
People have forgotten about Cincinnati since their week 1 loss to Arkansas. They admittedly haven’t given much to write home about as they’ve played pretty bad teams and struggled a surprising amount with South Florida two weeks ago. I do think this line disrespects them a bit though- they are the most talented team in the G5 and the quality of their roster is far beyond SMU’s. Cincinnati is in the top tier of the AAC along with Tulane and UCF, quite a ways above SMU.
Cincinnati -3 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 7 2022
Saturday was one of the best days of college football in recent years. Tennessee’s epic win over Alabama was the obvious highlight, but even beyond that we saw great wins from Utah, TCU and Michigan State, among others. The list of undefeated teams was trimmed from 15 to 9, all of whom appear in my top 25.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan (+2)
Tennessee
Texas (-2)
Oregon (+2)
Illinois (+22)
TCU (+4)
Utah
LSU (+3)
Mississippi State (-5)
UCLA (+2)
Kentucky (+17)
USC (+2)
Purdue (-8)
Syracuse (+17)
Florida State (+1)
Ole Miss (+4)
Kansas State
Maryland (-10)
Clemson (-4)
Cincinnati (-1)
Texas Tech
Texas A&M (+2)
Tennessee jumped to #3 in the AP Poll, but stays at #5 in my ratings. My model sees the Alabama game as a coin flip that the Volunteers were slightly fortunate to win, since they were only a small underdog in my system their rating is pretty unchanged from the win. I am now all aboard the Illinois bandwagon as they absolutely destroyed a good Minnesota team. The Illini have to be considered the favorites to win the Big Ten West and will be favored in every remaining game except a trip to Ann Arbor. Syracuse vaulted into my top 25 for the first time all year after their big win over NC State. Their place is probably a bit overstated as my model doesn’t properly account for NC State’s QB injury weighing their performance down.
Moving Up
Old Dominion (114th → 81st) handed Coastal Carolina their first loss of the year in dominating fashion, putting up a terrifying 11 yards per play in a 49-21 win. Nebraska (68th → 49th) is proving to be a lot better than I feared they were, giving a good Purdue team a scare in West Lafayette. Stanford (82nd → 67th) got their first FBS win of the year on the road against Notre Dame and should get another one this week against Arizona State.
Moving Down
Coastal Carolina (66th → 95th) was undefeated all year but showed signs of trouble against Gardner-Webb. It all came crashing down for the Chanticleers in their loss to Old Dominion and they now enter the meat of the Sun Belt schedule. California (76th → 97th) lost an inexcusable game on the road against a horrible Colorado team and will now struggle to make a bowl. Washington State (35th → 50th) was not competitive in a loss to Oregon State and looks like a 6-6 type team.