2025 CFB Preseason Alt Win Total Bets- Part 2

Intro

In case you missed it, in my last post I explained why I really like bettling alternative win totals in college football. I also covered a handful of alt win total picks that I have for 2025. Today I’ll go through the rest of those picks.

Big Ten

Ohio State to go undefeated +400 (2 units)

2024 Ohio State is not going to get talked about as one of the greatest teams of all time because they lost two games. However, by my numbers, they were a significantly above average national champion, as we saw when they easily won (and covered!) four straight games against good teams to win the title. Their quarterfinal win over Oregon is one of the more impressive wins I’ve seen from any team in years.

I really like this bet at 4/1 odds. The Buckeyes will probably take a step back and go 10-2 or 11-1. However, their upside is higher than any team in the country, and there’s some chance they’re just as good as last year. They have the best player in the country on each side of the ball in WR Jeremiah Smith and S Caleb Downs. If QB Julian Sayin’s production can match his recruiting pedigree, this will be the best team in the country. 

ACC

Stanford to win 6+ games +500 (2 units)

Stanford lost HC Troy Taylor unexpectedly late in the coaching cycle. I explained in a previous post why, despite this, I’m bullish on Stanford this year. They have decent talent, an excellent interim coach, and a really weak ACC schedule. The best comparison I have for Stanford is 2023 Northwestern, who went 7-5 (against a win total of 3.5) after HC Pat Fitzgerald was fired for a hazing scandal over the summer. The cupboard is not bare in Palo Alto and I want to get some more exposure on the Cardinal.

Clemson to go undefeated +500 (1 unit)

I already bet Clemson to win the ACC and Clemson to win the national title, and I’m tripling down here with this bet. The Tigers have their most talented team since 2020. Cade Klubnik took a huge leap last year and Dabo finally got over himself and started using the portal a bit. For the first time in years, Clemson’s ceiling is that of the best team in the country, and with their ACC schedule, they stand a decent chance of making it to the playoff undefeated.

Big 12

Baylor to win 10+ games +400 (2 units)

Baylor was the best team in 2024 that no one talked about. They started 2-4 and everyone assumed that HC Dave Aranda was on his way out. Aranda made a last-ditch effort to save his job by switching from Toledo transfer QB DeQuan Finn to promising youngster Sawyer Robertson and it paid off handsomely. Baylor went 6-0 down the stretch with Robertson and he is back for 2025.

The key to placing alternative win totals bets is identifying which teams have upside. There’s a chance that Robertson is a top 10 QB in the sport, and Baylor has talent elsewhere on their offense. I think there’s a good chance that the Bears will break out this year.

Arizona State to win 10+ games +210 (1 unit)

Arizona State to go undefeated +1500 (0.5 units)

Much like Baylor, Arizona State is a team with a promising young quarterback in Sam Leavitt. Unlike Baylor, they won double digit games last year, which is why this line is +210 as opposed to +400. However, I really like the Sun Devils’ upside this year- Leavitt also has a potential first round WR in Jordyn Tyson. It’s notoriously difficult to sustain success in the Big 12, but if any team can do it, I’ll bet on an Arizona State team that was quite young when they broke out in 2024.

Colorado to win 10+ games +900 (0.5 units)

I already bet Colorado to make the playoff at 16/1 odds- I really like their upside with QB Kaidon Salter transferring in from Liberty. Much like the other teams in this section, I’m taking a stab at a team with an exciting quarterback who has a decent upside case in 2025.

American

UTSA to win 10+ games +460 (2 units)

UTSA took a bit of a step back in 2024 after QB Frank Harris, the best player in program history, graduated. I anticipate that being just a one year step back, as HC Jeff Traylor has built an impressive foundation in San Antonio. The Roadrunners are recruiting at a top 5 level in the G5, and have done an excellent job of scooping up guys in the portal who didn’t fit at power schools. By my metric, this is one of the most talented teams in the G5 and they’re a dark horse playoff contender this year.

MAC

Central Michigan to win 6+ games +125 (2 units)

Central Michigan to win 10+ games +4500 (0.25 units)

Central Michigan is historically one of the best teams in the MAC. However, they’ve fallen on hard times recently, with three losing seasons in a row under HC Jim McElwain. McElwain looked checked out by the end of his tenure and “retired” (he was likely going to be fired) at the end of the season.

Central Michigan made a really excellent hire in Army OC Matt Drinkall. Army has had some amazing and unique offensive schemes the last few years. I also really appreciate it when MAC teams try something new- so many MAC schools have hired boring retread coaches, and this is an inspired pick of a unique young coach.

This roster is much better than the recent records indicate- CMU has always recruited near the top of the MAC. I am bullish on Drinkall’s ability to get things turned around quickly.

Conference USA

UTEP to win 10+ games +2000 (0.5 units)

UTEP has been playing football for a hundred years and has never won 10 games. There may not be a more structurally hopeless program in D1 than the Miners. If history is any indication, UTEP should once again suck this year.

There is one reason to think things could be different- QB Malachi Nelson. Nelson was a 5 star recruit and the #13 overall player in the country in the class of 2023. However, he failed to win the starting job at USC in 2023 and again at Boise State in 2024, and has only 20 career passing attempts to his name.

Nelson has failed to live up to his potential so far, but given his recruiting pedigree, the upside is clear. Given that he wound up at UTEP, he’s probably not any good, but if he plays like the 5 star he once was, he’ll be the best player in the conference by far. I like the Miners’ upside a lot this year.

Delaware to win 10+ games +2100 (0.5 units)

Delaware is making their FBS debut this year. Projecting teams in their first year in FBS is notoriously difficult. Teams often redshirt lots of players the year before they move up to FBS as they are ineligible for the FCS playoffs in the year prior to transition.

Even with a limited roster, Delaware went 9-2 in the CAA last year. There’s some history of teams winning big immediately upon moving up to FBS- Sam Houston State, James Madison and Appalachian State all won 8+ games in their first year in FBS. Delaware plays in an awful CUSA, and I think this team has some real upside.