SEC
Georgia- 94%
Alabama- 79%
LSU- 70%
Ole Miss- 66%
Tennessee- 47%
Texas- 47%
Kentucky- 42%
South Carolina- 16%
Florida- 13%
Missouri- 11%
The playoff committee’s initial rankings were even more friendly to the SEC than I expected. One might have thought that the biggest beneficiary would be Texas, but it’s actually Alabama. Texas already has been considered a lock at 9-3 for a few weeks now- it was Alabama who saw their P(make the playoff if they finish 9-3) rise a lot on the committee’s initial rankings.
I project 2.1 SEC teams to finish 10-2 or better, and 3.4 SEC teams to finish 9-3, and 4.8 SEC teams to make the playoff. That means that most, but not all, teams should be feeling good about their chances at 9-3. I think Missouri and Kentucky are the teams that would have the worst odds of getting in at 9-3.
In a 24 team playoff world, I’d project the SEC for 8.2 bids, with teams like Oklahoma and Auburn still in the playoff picture.
Big Ten
Indiana- 79%
UCLA- 67%
Ohio State- 60%
Iowa- 16%
USC- 12%
Northwestern- 5%
Oregon- 5%
It’s been a bad few weeks for the Big Ten, as a 2 bid league now looks more likely than a 3 bid league. Ohio State has seen their chance of getting in the playoff at 9-3 crater- I think the committee has made it clear that they’re going to take Julian Sayin’s injury into account. Indiana is also not a lock at 10-2 after some very questionable performances against Nebraska and Minnesota.
USC is in excellent shape if they can finish 10-2, but that’s a big if. Northwestern and Iowa play an eliminator this week- I’d feel decent about either team’s chances at 10-2.
In a 24 team playoff world, I’d project the Big Ten for 6.3 bids with Wisconsin firmly on the playoff bubble.
ACC + Notre Dame
Miami- 88%
Notre Dame- 82%
Wake Forest- 49%
The big news from the committee’s rankings was Notre Dame clocking in all the way at #11. I think that a 10-2 Notre Dame team only has about a 30% shot at the playoff (previously I thought 10-2 Notre Dame had about an 80% shot at the playoff)- they would need some upsets to occur elsewhere.
Wake Forest continues to rise- both because I think a committee will take an 11-2 Wake Forest seriously, but also because I think their odds of winning the ACC have risen significantly.
In a 24 team playoff world, I’d project the ACC for 2.9 bids with Virginia Tech, Pitt and Duke in the playoff picture.
Big 12
Utah- 78%
Texas Tech- 29%
BYU- 25%
Arizona- 8%
Houston- 7%
I’m a bit higher on Utah and lower on BYU than the consensus- but this is reflected in the fact that I’ve bet on Utah -4.5 this week.
The Big 12’s best chance at 2 bids is for Utah to lose the conference championship game. I think the Utes are decently likely to finish the regular season at 12-0 or 11-1, and in either case, they’d be in very good shape even with a loss in the Big 12 title game. Other chances for a second bid include an at-large for 10-2 BYU, or maybe an at-large for 10-2 Arizona or Houston.
In a 24 team playoff world, I’d project the Big 12 for 3.7 bids with Arizona and Houston firmly on the playoff bubble.