I’m trying something a little different with my look at the playoff picture this week. If you’re familiar with college basketball bracketology, you’re familiar with the concept of WAB. If you’re not familiar, here’s a quick primer.
WAB stands for “wins above bubble”. Essentially, for each game on a team’s schedule, we calculate what a bubble team’s (defined as the 12th rated team in my power ratings) chance of winning the game is, and compare the result to that. E.g. suppose a bubble team would have a 70% chance of winning a game- a team gains 0.3 WAB for winning that game and -0.7 WAB for losing it.
The WAB top 25 matches the committee’s top 25 pretty well. The football committee seems to match the basketball committee in that it takes a blend of resume metrics like WAB and predictive metrics. Here are all the teams where the WAB and committee disagree by more than 3 spots. In most cases, the committee’s rank is in between WAB and my model’s power Rating.
Notre Dame: Committee 5th, WAB 9th, Power Rating 2nd
Miami: Committee 7th, WAB 2nd, Power Rating 11th
Kentucky: Committee 11th, WAB 6th, Power Rating 31st
Boise State: Committee 24th, WAB 16th, Power Rating 38th
Houston: Committee 14th, WAB 20th, Power Rating 34th
New Mexico: Committee NR, WAB 21st, Power Rating 45th
South Carolina: Committee 17th, WAB 22nd, Power Rating 19th
LSU: Committee 21st, WAB 25th, Power Rating 5th
It seems that if you want to derive the committee’s rankings, you should take the WAB rankings, and slide teams up or down a little bit if their power ratings are significantly different from their WAB rankings.
I’ll use the lens of WAB to explore the playoff picture this week. Note that in my simulations, the typical WAB of the last at-large team in the field is about 0.3, not 0 (there are some mathematical reasons for this I will omit for the sake of brevity).
SEC
4 bids is the most likely outcome for the SEC, with 5 on the table.
Georgia- 99% chance. In good shape even if they finish 9-3.
Alabama- 97% chance. In good shape even if they finish 9-3.
Texas- 73% chance. A lock at 9-3 and hopeless at 8-4.
Tennessee- 58% chance. Will be right on the cut line at 9-3 according to WAB and the power ratings agree. It would help if the last at-large spot comes down to them or Kentucky, given their head-to-head win.
Kentucky- 29% chance. WAB loves them and thinks they’re a lock at 9-3 but their power rating is bad enough that I think they’re about a coin flip at 9-3. They have a lot of wins that look way better via WAB than you’d think (at Oklahoma, at South Carolina)
Ole Miss- 26% chance. WAB likes them more than I expected, I think they’re a bit more likely than not to make it at 9-3.
LSU- 20% chance. In quite good shape if they finish 9-3 but that’ll be hard to achieve.
South Carolina- 10% chance. In decent shape if they finish 9-3.
Big Ten
3 bids is the most likely outcome for the Big Ten, but 2 is possible.
UCLA- 83% chance. A lock at 11-1 and in quite a bit of trouble at 10-2.
Indiana- 83% chance. A lock at 11-1. WAB indicates they’re probably in at 10-2, but I think it’s close to a coin flip.
Iowa- 36% chance. I think they probably get in if they finish 10-2, but it’ll be close.
Oregon- 32% chance. In good shape if they finish 9-3.
Ohio State- 30% chance, but my model doesn’t handle QB injuries well. I think around a coin flip if they finish 9-3.
USC- 11% chance. In very good shape if they finish 10-2, but that’ll be tough.
ACC + Notre Dame
Notre Dame- 92% chance. WAB has them in some trouble if they drop another game, but I think they’ll be OK given their power rating and win over Miami.
Miami- 87% chance. WAB says they can survive a loss, and I agree. The question is can they survive a regular season loss AND an ACC championship game loss- that is unclear.
Wake Forest- 51% chance. I feel increasingly good about their odds if they go 11-1 and then lose the ACC title game. They also have a path if they finish 10-2 and win the ACC title game.
Duke- 2% chance. It’s unlikely, but they have some hope at an at-large if they beat Miami and Wake Forest.
SMU- 2% chance. It’s unlikely, but they have some hope at an at-large if they beat Notre Dame and Wake Forest.
Big 12
Utah- 91% chance. In a lot of trouble if they pick up 2 more losses but can easily stomach one.
BYU- 37% chance. WAB says they are looking pretty solid if they finish 10-2 and the committee indicates as much by ranking them 10th.
Texas Tech- 25% chance. I think they’re good if they go 11-1 and lose the Big 12 title game. Anything short of that won’t be enough.
Houston- 13% chance. I think they’re about a coin flip if they finish 10-2, the committee ranks them a good bit higher than WAB which helps.
Oklahoma State- 12% chance. No at-large chances but has a chance to win the Big 12.
Arizona- 5% chance. Has a puncher’s chance at an at-large if they finish 10-2.
Group of Six
This is Boise State’s race to lose. If they slip up even once though, I think New Mexico is in the driver’s seat. If both teams lose, it gets complicated.
I think New Mexico is cooked with a second loss, and I think Liberty’s schedule is too bad to have a shot. If it comes down to an 11-2 Boise State vs. an 11-2 UTSA or North Texas, I don’t know what will happen. If it comes down to an 11-2 Boise State vs. an 11-2 Memphis, Boise will prevail on behalf of their head to head win.