College Football Picks Week 9 2024
I had another solid week last week. It would’ve been nice to get Nevada at +3.5 instead of +3, as I pushed when I could’ve won if I bet the opening line instead. Temple and Auburn both covered easily, and Auburn nearly won outright.
Unfortunately, loyal readers may remember that I bet Oklahoma +6 against Ole Miss back in the preseason. The Sooners and Rebels face off this weekend, and the line is now Ole Miss -20.5.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Preseason Bets: +6.57 units
Total: +8.36 units
UTSA @ Tulsa (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I faded Tulsa last week against Temple and I’m going to do it again here. The Golden Hurricane made a disastrous hire when they brought in an awful retread in Kevin Wilson last year. It was made worse by the fact that Tulsa alum GJ Kinne (and now hugely successful Texas State coach) was available. They’ve been a total disaster this year as we saw last week- I’m going to continue fading them until further notice.
UTSA -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Texas @ Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)
Vanderbilt pulled off the upset of the year against Alabama a few weeks ago and now looks to do the same thing against Texas. I’ve been low on the Longhorns all season- they are “only” fifth in my ratings right now when they are in the top three in most other computer models. Vanderbilt has played to the level of their competition all year, looking great against good teams and awful against bad teams. I think they can give Texas a decent game.
Vanderbilt +19.5 -110 (2 units)
Bowling Green @ Toledo (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is one of the best rivalry games in the MAC, as these teams are separated by less than 50 miles along I-75. Bowling Green may be 3-4 but I think they might be the best team in the MAC- they played Texas A&M and Penn State very close. They’re also the only team in the MAC that’s as talented as Toledo. Toledo’s offense has been anemic in recent games and I think this is the game where they lose their grip on the MAC.
Bowling Green +3 -110 (1 unit)
Troy @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Arkansas State was one of my favorite teams in the preseason, but they have been disappointing this season. Luckily for me, they are 4-3, but they have needed smoke and mirrors to get there. Most notably, they were bailed out but the referees in a win over FCS Central Arkansas. Troy has taken a huge step back from the Jon Sumrall era but they still might be more talented than Arkansas State.
Troy +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame to win the National Championship +4000 (0.5 units)
Everyone stopped paying attention to Notre Dame after their loss to Northern Illinois, but the Fighting Irish have been very solid since then. After a dominating win over Georgia Tech last week, they’re up to third in my ratings. I think they’re more likely than not to make the playoff, and if they get there, only Ohio State and Georgia look like clearly superior teams. At 40/1, I like a longshot bet on the Irish.
College Football Bracketology- Week 8 2024
A lot of people have been talking about this college football season as a chaotic one. While it’s true that there are no dominating teams this year, week 8 did not bring chaos. In fact, ranked teams went a perfect 14-0 against unranked teams. This is bad news for a lot of teams on the fringes of the playoff hunt- teams like Ole Miss and SMU are running out of time.
Tier 1: Definitely In
Georgia joins this tier after their win at Texas. UGA would probably have to lose to both Ole Miss and Tennessee to miss the playoff, although the upcoming Cocktail Party against Florida is looking a bit trickier than expected as well. Texas stays strong at 88% to make the playoff despite the loss- they would have to lose two more games to be in any danger of missing the playoffs and only face one more top 20 opponent (a trip to Texas A&M).
Tier 2: Probably In
Miami and Tennessee were the week’s two big winners in this group. Miami cleared their biggest remaining hurdle with a road win over Louisville and is now 50/50 to go 12-0. Tennessee, meanwhile, still has to go to Georgia but other than that does not leave the state for the rest of the season. As long as they take care of business against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, they should be in the field.
LSU hosts Texas A&M this weekend. The winner will be the only team undefeated in SEC conference play and will likely have around a 75% chance of making the playoff. The loser will likely need to win out to make the field.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
The model says that Alabama is exactly a coin flip to make the playoff, which feels about right. With the playoff bubble looking stronger, I think that a 9-3 Alabama team probably will not make the field. They’d have a chance, but I’d rather not be a three loss Crimson Tide team. The good news for them is that outside of a trip to Baton Rouge, they’ll be double digit favorites in every other game.
I’ve been high on Indiana’s playoff chances all season, and they played their best game of the season in a 56-7 demolition of Nebraska. However, Indiana could be hurt by the strong bubble- if other teams in this tier keep winning, a 10-2 Hoosiers squad probably would not make the cut. Keep in mind that Indiana still has to travel to Ohio State. QB Kurtis Rourke is out for multiple weeks which doesn’t help matters.
The Big 12 is going to need their trio of Iowa State, BYU and Kansas State to keep winning if they want multiple teams in the field. My model thinks Kansas State is the best team of the three, but they also are the only one with a loss. Unless chaos erupts in the SEC, it’ll be hard for a two-loss Big 12 team to get into the field. My personal guess is that BYU slips up down the stretch and Iowa State and Kansas State play for the conference title and both sneak into the field.
Tier 4: Longshots
SMU and Missouri are the only teams here with real at-large chances. Both teams won this week but saw their playoff odds hold steady as teams in front of them all won as well.
Everyone else in this tier is either an oddball case (Washington State) or a team looking to get an automatic bid by winning their conference. If anyone in this group is going to make a run, I’d put my money on a Colorado team that has improved significantly and should be favored in every remaining game.
Group of Five
The biggest development in the G5 has been Army and Navy’s continued winning streaks. Both teams are not just winning- they are covering nearly every week and rocketing up my ratings. Both teams still have to play Notre Dame, but a 12-1 Army or Navy with a loss to Notre Dame could still get in the playoff, especially if Boise State slips up.
Boise State travels to UNLV on Friday night in what looks to be the G5 game of the year. Ashton Jeanty and Boise have snagged all the headlines this year, but UNLV might have their best team in school history and has their own star in WR Ricky White. Every team in this section other than Boise is hoping for the Broncos to slip up.
This Week’s Projection
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
5 Oregon vs. 12 Boise State
6 Texas vs. 11 Kansas State
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 LSU
Once again I’ve decided to have some fun with my projection as opposed to just slotting in the most likely team into each spot. I’m assuming here that Georgia wins out and wins the SEC, while Kansas State sneaks into the field over teams like Alabama and Indiana after losing the Big 12 title game.
College Football Picks Week 8 2024
Last week was a bit unfortunate as I bet on two big underdogs who got blown out. The good news is that I had plenty of success elsewhere- my huge preseason bets against Ole Miss took a big step forward when they lost to LSU, and my preseason bets against Utah look phenomenal after their loss to Arizona State.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Preseason Bets: +5.27 units
Total: +5.51 units
Tulsa @ Temple (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
A few weeks ago we were talking about Temple as one of the worst teams in FBS. Since then they beat Utah State and nearly beat UConn, and are now outside of my bottom 10. Instead, it’s Tulsa that looks like one of the worst teams in FBS. The Golden Hurricane might just have the worst defense in FBS and have been smoked by Army and North Texas in back to back weeks. Tulsa is one of the least talented teams in FBS and I love fading them here.
Temple -1.5 -110 (3 units)
Hawai’i @ Washington State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
When Timmy Chang took over at Hawai’i he inherited possibly the worst situation in FBS. Now the Rainbow Warriors are showing some signs of life- last week’s loss to league power Boise State was much closer than the 28-7 score indicates and Chang’s squad hung with UCLA earlier in the season. Hawai’i is better than their 1-4 record and Washington State is worse than their 5-1 record.
Hawai’i +19.5 -110 (3 units)
Auburn @ Missouri (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Auburn is the best 2-4 team college football has seen in a few years. They’ve had awful turnover luck- they would have beaten Oklahoma if Payton Thorne did not throw a heinous interception and they outplayed both Arkansas and Cal in those losses. I’ve been down on Missouri all season and they were absolutely exposed in a blowout loss to Texas A&M- they have no running game and no offense to speak of outside of Luther Burden.
Auburn +7.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State @ Nevada (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
Nevada upset Oregon State last week- this was their third win of the season and it meant that I cashed my Nevada over 2.5 wins ticket from the preseason. I also have a Fresno State under 8 wins ticket that is looking quite good as the Bulldogs are now 3-3. I’ll continue with what’s been working here- Fresno QB Mikey Keene has regressed this year while Nevada has a more talented roster than you’d think with several P5 transfers.
Nevada +3 -110 (1 unit)
Missouri under 9.5 wins -175 (5 units)
I’ve been a seller of Missouri all season but now is the time to take my stand. The Tigers need to lose two more games for this bet to hit. They’ll be huge underdogs at Alabama, and favorites of around a touchdown or less against Auburn, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Arkansas. This line makes absolutely no sense to me, especially when you consider that Missouri is +340 to make the playoff and they have very little chance of making the playoff at 9-3. I absolutely love this bet.
BYU to make the Playoff +450 (1 unit)
BYU is +500 to win the Big 12 and +450 to make the playoff. I think that +500 to win the Big 12 is pretty fair, but the latter line implies they have almost no chance to get an at-large bid. I don’t agree with that- a BYU team that goes 12-0 and then loses the Big 12 title game will obviously make the field and a BYU team that goes 11-1 and then loses the Big 12 title game could get in. They already have good wins over fellow playoff contenders Kansas State and SMU, which is more than most potential at-large candidates can say at this point in the season. I think this is worth a flier.
College Football Bracketology- Week 7 2024
I’ve been publishing weekly bracketology updates for the whole season, but starting this week I will be devoting a whole weekly post to previewing the playoff field. Over the last few weeks I’ve been building a model to simulate the selection process for the 12 team playoff. Much like college basketball bracketology, the goal of this is to predict what the committee will do, not what I think they should do. Each week I’ll break down the resume of all of the main contenders and also give my projections as to the most likely field.
Tier 1: Definitely In
These are the 4 top ranked teams in the AP poll, and for good reason. Texas, Oregon and Penn State would have to go 3-3 down the stretch to be in danger of missing the playoff. Penn State is in marginally more danger than the other two, given that they’re the only one of the group outside of the top 5 in my ratings and they have some tricky road trips on the schedule.
Ohio State remains in a good position despite their loss this week. Their trip to State College in early November is likely to determine who plays Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If the Buckeyes lose two more regular season games, they’d probably miss the field, but that’s unlikely for what’s still the #1 team in my power ratings.
Tier 2: Probably In
One general rule of thumb to know this year is that 10-2 Big Ten and SEC teams are definitely going to make the field, while 9-3 Big Ten and SEC teams probably won’t. 9-3 Georgia would have the best chance of any potential 9-3 team, thanks to their win over Clemson. Assuming they win their other games (Florida, UMass, Georgia Tech), the Dawgs will be feeling good if they go 2-1 against Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee and shaky if they go 1-2.
The winner of this week’s Alabama/Tennessee game will move into the “definitely in” tier. The loser will be a bit less than 50/50 to make the field. I’d rather be the Tide than the Vols, both because they’re a better team and because their big November road trip (LSU) is easier than Tennessee’s (Georgia).
Miami and Clemson are both rooting for the other to keep winning. I think that a potential 11-2 loser of a Miami/Clemson ACC title game is likely to be right on the cutline for the last spot in the field. The best win either team has is probably Miami’s win over Virginia Tech, which is not saying much at this point in the season.
Notre Dame will easily be in the field at 11-1 and is a huge question mark at 10-2. Their schedule is riddled with games that are trickier than you’d think, such as road trips to Georgia Tech and USC.
Iowa State has been my projected Big 12 champion all season and they continue to impress. They’ll be at least touchdown favorites in their next four games. I think that the Big 12 has enough depth that a 10-2 Iowa State team has a shot at the playoff, but they’d be behind teams like Notre Dame and Clemson in the pecking order.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
LSU and Texas A&M continue to see their odds tick up. They are the two SEC teams other than Texas who are yet to lose a conference game, as they took their losses on opening weekend in non conference action. One possible interesting scenario to monitor- it’s possible that either team ends up 10-2 and 7-1 in SEC play. If they then lose the conference title game to finish 10-3, it’ll be curious to see if the committee punishes them for that.
Ole Miss has by far the best odds of any 2 loss team. There’s a few reasons for this- first, they’re good (they’re ninth in my ratings, even after the LSU loss), second, their remaining schedule is easy (other than Georgia, they’ll be touchdown favorites in every game). I give them around a 25% chance of winning out and some chance of making it in at 9-3.
Indiana continues to boost their playoff odds. They’re undefeated and have one game they’re huge underdogs in (at Ohio State) and several they’re mild favorites in (Nebraska, Michigan, Washington). If they can take care of business and win all of those they’ll be in the field at 11-1.
BYU and Kansas State look like the clear second and third contenders in the Big 12 behind Iowa State. BYU is still outside the top 25 of my ratings but they already have wins over Kansas State and SMU and a light November schedule. Kansas State saw their odds tick up a good bit after a road win at Colorado.
SMU might be the most interesting team in the whole playoff picture. They project to be 7 to 14 point favorites in all 6 remaining games, and clearly will make the field at 11-1. They also could feasibly not make the ACC title game in that scenario despite being undefeated in conference play as they play neither Miami nor Clemson.
Tier 4: Longshots
We have a whole bevy of Big 12 teams in this tier. None of them have compelling at-large cases, but all of them could factor into the crowded Big 12 title picture. If I had to pick one team to emerge from the pack, it would probably be Colorado, given their clear upside and the fact that they don’t have to play any of the top 3 teams in the league.
Louisville still controls their playoff destiny as they face both Miami and Clemson in the coming weeks, and thus control their own path to the ACC title game. Pitt is undefeated but has done so in the most confounding way possible and has three games left they’ll be significant underdogs in.
Missouri and Oklahoma both have longshot chances at the playoff. Missouri has the weakest schedule in the SEC and thus can only afford one more loss to have a chance at the playoff. Oklahoma has such a brutal schedule that if they can somehow find their way to 9-3, they will probably make it in.
Group of Five
Boise State remains the clear leader here. The Broncos have to travel to UNLV in two weeks and likely will have to do so again for the conference title game. Every bracket projection has the Broncos as the 12 seed, but they’re already 15th in the polls and if they win out I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hosting a first round game. If UNLV knocks off Boise in the Mountain West title game they’ll have a great shot at the playoff.
Elsewhere, Tulane, Army and Navy lead an interesting American race. An undefeated Army or Navy would surely leapfrog Boise State, as both teams still get to play Notre Dame. Tulane is an interesting contender as well, they are the only top 30 team in the G5 outside of Boise State.
One outlier possibility to keep an eye on- I wouldn’t sleep on the chance that 2 G5 teams could get into the field. Suppose, for example, that a 10-3 West Virginia or Texas Tech team wins the Big 12 while we have both a 12-1 Boise State and an 11-1 Navy team. If something wacky happens in the Big 12 there’s a real chance their conference champion finishes behind 2 G5 teams.
This Week’s Projection
1 Texas
2 Oregon
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
5 Penn State vs. 12 Boise State
6 Georgia vs. 11 Indiana
7 Ohio State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Alabama
This projection is still mostly an exercise in guesswork. I decided to spice things up and not just pick the most likely scenario everywhere- for example I have decided to put Indiana in the field over say, Clemson. At this point in the season, I do find it more useful to look at things from a probabilistic perspective as I did at the top of the post as opposed to focusing on the single most likely scenario, but it’s still a fun exercise.
College Football Picks Week 7 2024
Week 6 was my best week of the season thus far. My two biggest bets both covered by multiple touchdowns, Arkansas won outright as a 14 point underdog and Navy demolished Air Force. My futures bets also had a great week as I got important wins from both Florida and Arkansas State.
Unfortunately I have a smaller slate of bets this week, no picks look as appetizing to me as the 3 and 4 unit plays I’ve had the last two weeks. It’s important to be able to pick your spots during the season and be comfortable having weeks where you have fewer bets every now and again.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Preseason Bets: +4.46 units
Total: +7.70 units
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State (Wednesday, 6:30 PM Central)
This year’s New Mexico State is much worse than the 2023 version that made it to the CUSA title game. Still, they have shown the faintest signs of life this year, giving Liberty a tough test in a one possession loss. Jacksonville State is just inside the top 100 in my ratings and should not be a three touchdown favorite against a team with any sort of pulse.
New Mexico State +20.5 -110 (2 units)
Missouri @ UMass (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Missouri has made some strange scheduling decisions in recent years including a road trip to Wyoming. This one takes the cake though- no power conference team in their right mind would schedule a trip to UMass. Much like the New Mexico State/Jacksonville State game, this game is a mismatch but the spread is several points too high. UMass is no longer one of the bottom three teams in FBS and Missouri is out of my top 25 after a disastrous performance against Texas A&M. I like a small play on UMass here.
UMass +28.5 -110 (1 unit)
SMU to make the ACC Title Game +190 (2 units)
I’m adding a futures bet on SMU as well this week. The ACC title race will come down to Miami, Clemson and SMU- all three are undefeated in conference play and strangely, none of them play each other. SMU has the easiest conference schedule of the three, which is both a blessing and a curse. It means that they stand a good chance at running the table (I give them a 30% chance of winning out) but it also means they will lose a strength of schedule tiebreaker against Miami and Clemson. Regardless, Miami or Clemson will probably slip up somewhere and SMU has rocketed up to 14th in my ratings, so I think there’s some decent value here.
Oklahoma to make the Playoff +1500 (0.5 units)
Oklahoma is probably the only team other than Georgia that is more likely than not to make the playoff at 9-3. The Sooners have a brutal schedule, as their most likely path to 9-3 would have wins over Alabama, LSU and Tulane and quality losses to Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
The most likely scenario is that they get destroyed by Texas this weekend and nothing happens with this bet. However, I think that if they win, they’ll be more likely than not to make the playoff and that makes this a nice longshot flier.
San Jose State to make the playoff +25000 (0.1 units)
If you’re going to take a long shot to make the playoff, I like SJSU at 250/1. They have only one loss so far this season, on the road against a good Washington State team. They are currently 16/1 to win the Mountain West which is pretty fair. If they win the Mountain West, they’ll be in the mix to make the playoff- they’d need a team with a few losses to win the American, and also some stumbles from James Madison and Liberty. I think that they have around a one in six shot of making the playoff as the Mountain West champs which means there’s some value at 250/1.
College Football Ratings- Week 6 2024
This Saturday was one of those special days of college football that we’ll remember for a while. I have been a big supporter of Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia for a long time- loyal readers will remember my big bet on New Mexico State last year when he was the Aggies’ quarterback. That was my best bet of 2023 by a mile, and I was very happy to see him lead Vanderbilt to the upset this Saturday.
Bracketology
I’ve added projected end of season records to my bracketology this week. The goal of this is to provide a realistic simulation of the rest of the season according to my model. For example, even though Ohio State will be favored in every remaining game, they’re only small favorites against Oregon and Penn State and are a good bit more likely to go 12-1 than 13-0.
1 Ohio State (12-1)
2 Texas (11-2)
3 Miami (12-1)
4 Iowa State (11-2)
I have a preseason ticket on Iowa State to make the Big 12 title game at +450. It’s now +135, a good bit above every other Big 12 team. I’ve been projecting the Cyclones as my Big 12 champion in every bracketology so far this season and still view them as the best team in the league.
12 Boise State (12-1) @ 5 Oregon (11-2)
11 Texas A&M (9-3) @ 6 Alabama (10-3)
10 Georgia (9-3) @ 7 Penn State (10-2)
9 Notre Dame (10-2) @ 8 Clemson (11-2)
Alabama would probably have to go 8-4 to miss the playoff. In this projection I assume they go 10-2 and then lose to Texas in the SEC title game, but a 9-3 ‘Bama with wins at LSU and vs. Georgia would also be quite likely to get in.
Texas A&M was the biggest beneficiary of this weekend’s chaos. Since Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia all have one loss, the Aggies are now +130 to make the SEC title game and I find it hard to believe that the SEC title game loser gets left out.
I think that a 10-2 Notre Dame team is pretty likely to make it. I think that any 10-2 power conference team will make the field, with the possible exception of weaker Big 12/ACC resumes. It’s hard to find two more losses on the Irish’s schedule.
In the Hunt:
Ole Miss (9-3)
SMU (10-2)
Indiana (9-3)
Kansas State (10-3)
Tennessee (8-4)
LSU (8-4)
I think that SMU could present an interesting case to the committee. If the Mustangs go 10-2 and miss the ACC title game (which is the most likely outcome in my model), their only top 30 win would be at Louisville. They’re likely to stack up a decent number of wins against 7-5 type teams (TCU, Duke, Boston College, Cal etc.), which the committee traditionally hasn’t valued very much.
I got Indiana to make the playoff at +3000 a few weeks ago. I also had the Hoosiers over 5.5 wins in the preseason. I was bullish on Indiana this year but I will admit that I did not expect to cash that ticket in the first week in October.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Texas
Notre Dame
Miami
Penn State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Clemson
LSU
Iowa State
SMU
Tennessee
USC
Louisville
Kansas State
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington
Auburn
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
College Football Picks Week 6 2024
Week 5 was tremendous. I won 4 of 5 my bets, and most of them in convincing fashion. Arizona won outright as a 13.5 point underdog and Kentucky won outright as a 16.5 point underdog. Northern Illinois really should have won outright as well- they allowed only 171 yards but allowed 24 points thanks to 4 turnovers.
I also gained a lot of EV in my preseason bets- Ole Miss under, Indiana over and Fresno State under all took big jumps this week.
In addition to my bets below, Clemson plays Florida State this week. The consensus line is Clemson -14, but if you were following my picks in the preseason, you have Clemson in this game at +4. My bets against Florida State have been the gift that keeps on giving.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: 5.28 units
Preseason Bets: 2.64 units
Total: -2.22 units
Tennessee @ Arkansas (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Arkansas has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this year. They outplayed a very good Texas A&M team last week but lost thanks to a -3 turnover margin. Their other loss this season was a crazy game against Oklahoma State where they racked up 648 yards of offense but lost the flukiest game of the season. Tennessee is a very good team, but my model does not have them in the top 5 like the polls do. Arkansas is a fringe top 25 team so I think this spread is at least a touchdown too big.
Arkansas +14 -110 (4 units)
Navy @ Air Force (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Navy has looked amazing so far this year, most notably in a 56-44 win over a hyped up Memphis team. QB Blake Horvath is putting up video game numbers for an option QB- he is 30/44 for 657 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT on the season. Air Force can be a difficult place to play given the altitude, and these two triple option teams are familiar with each other, but Air Force is in a rebuilding year and is clearly the worst of the three service academies. I think Navy should roll by multiple scores.
Navy -7 -110 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ Marshall (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Another week, another bet against Appalachian State. Their game last week was unfortunately canceled by Hurricane Helene, but when they have played this year, the Mountaineers have been very underwhelming. Marshall has one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt and I don’t think the market has caught on to just how much weaker App State is than they have been the last few years.
Marshall -1 -110 (2 units)
Auburn @ Georgia (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Auburn is 2-3 and questions are being asked about Hugh Freeze’s job security. However, they are really unlucky to be 2-3, as they outgained Oklahoma by nearly 200 yards last week and only lost thanks to an atrocious pick six by Payton Thorne. Auburn still has a very talented roster and the underlying fundamentals are much better than the record would indicate. Loyal readers will remember I picked Auburn in this game last year as a multi touchdown underdog and they nearly won outright, and I like them again this year.
Auburn +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas State @ Troy (Thursday, 6 PM Central)
Texas State has been my bogey team these last few years, I believe I am 0-4 ATS picking against them since GJ Kinne took over in San Marcos. I’m ready to get hurt again, as I like Troy and the points in this matchup. Troy is rebuilding under first year HC Gerard Parker, but is still a respectable outfit. This spread should be in the single digits, not nearly two touchdowns.
Troy +13.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 5 2024
Week 5 featured what may end up being the game of the year as Alabama survived a furious rally from Georgia. I’ve been high on Alabama’s national title chances for a while (loyal readers will remember I backed the Tide to make the SEC title game at +270 two weeks ago) but they look like co-SEC front runners with Texas now.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Alabama
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
I’ve had Iowa State projected as my Big 12 champion all season, and other projections are starting to join me now as they are one of two undefeated teams in the conference, along with BYU. The Big 12 race remains wide open as no team has better than +400 odds to win the conference but I’m sticking with the Cyclones for now.
5 Texas vs. 12 Boise State
6 Oregon vs. 11 Notre Dame
7 Penn State vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Clemson vs. 9 Georgia
I think that Georgia might be in more danger of missing the playoff than people realize. They have 3 more difficult games (at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee) and then 5 games they will be heavy favorites in. If they go 1-2 in the tough games, they’ll be right on the playoff bubble- I imagine we will get at most one or two 9-3 teams in the playoff this year.
The more I look at their schedule, the more solid I feel about Penn State’s chances of making the playoff. They draw a favorable Big Ten schedule that features 5 more games against the league’s bottom half, leaving only challenges against USC, Ohio State and Washington. Even going 1-2 in those games would probably get them in the field.
Notre Dame was +350 to make the playoff after the Northern Illinois loss and I wish I had scooped that up. They’re all the way back to +115 now and will be double digit favorites in every game until their finale against USC.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Texas
Miami
Notre Dame
Penn State
Clemson
Ole Miss
Louisville
LSU
Iowa State
Tennessee
Texas A&M
USC
Kansas State
Missouri
Washington
SMU
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Kentucky
Indiana
Arkansas
LSU has been off the national radar since their week 1 to USC. The Tigers looked great against a solid South Alabama team this week and is a contender in the SEC race- both Ole Miss and Alabama have to come to Death Valley.
Washington is on no one’s radar but the advanced metrics love them. They dropped 500 yards against Rutgers this weekend but lost thanks to going 1 of 4 on field goals and 2 of 12 on third down. They could majorly impact the Big Ten race with a November schedule that features USC, Penn State and Oregon.
SMU has clawed their way back into the top 25 after a dominating win over Florida State. Their only loss (Week 2 to BYU) looks much better as BYU is still undefeated.They avoid both Miami and Clemson in ACC play and thus have a good shot at the ACC title game.
College Football Picks Week 5 2024
Last week was once again pretty tough. Toledo lost on a very strange call- they ran back a fumble for a TD for what appeared to be a game winning TD, but the play was blown dead for unclear reasons. Georgia Tech lost by 12 as a 10.5 point dog in a game where they had two turnovers deep in Louisville territory and had a blocked field goal returned for a TD. The good news is that I had two picks win in blowouts as South Alabama and Clemson dominated.
Overall I still feel decent about the process- I’m generating a ton of closing line value as almost all of my picks are moving in my direction over the course of the week. I’ve also had a bunch of teams that I like look really good in the games after I bet on them- for example, I bet on Vanderbilt in week 3, and in week 4 they nearly won outright at Missouri as a 20 point dog. Frustrating stuff, but I’ll continue to follow the same process and hope for better results.
Preseason Futures: +1.82 units
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Total: -8.32 units
Northern Illinois @ NC State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Northern Illinois is one of the better teams in the MAC, as we saw when they beat Notre Dame a few weeks ago. They played a clunker against Buffalo last week but their upside is clear. NC State, meanwhile, is a bottom 5 power conference team in the country. 6th year senior QB Grayson McCall was supposed to start but has been injured and may not play again this season. Even if they had McCall, I’m not convinced they’d be much better, as they allowed touchdowns on Clemson’s first four drives last week. This is my favorite pick of the season so far.
Northern Illinois +10 -110 (4 units)
Arizona @ Utah (Saturday, 9:15 PM Central)
On paper, it looks like Utah picked up one of the best wins of the season last week by knocking off a top 15 Oklahoma State team on the road. In actuality, Oklahoma State is incredibly fraudulent (unfortunately for me, they played their only good game of the season against Tulsa, which is the one time I bet against them). Loyal readers will remember that I bet this game in the preseason at Arizona +9.5 but I’m putting two more units down at +13.5. Utah is a solid, physical team but Arizona has huge explosive potential with the Fifita/McMillan combo and shouldn’t be a double digit dog here.
Arizona +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky @ Boston College (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Boston College has their best team in several years. QB Thomas Castellanos is explosive both on the ground and in the passing game, and their defense forced four turnovers against Michigan State last week. Western Kentucky has a solid team and a good QB in Caden Veltkamp but I think that BC is a fringe ACC contender and they need to be bigger favorites against any non power team.
Boston College -11 -110 (2 units)
Liberty @ Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. This is going to be my third week in a row betting against App State and I’m 2-0 ATS so far- I don’t think the books have caught up to how much worse this team is than previous App State squads. They are a complete sieve on defense as we saw last week against South Alabama- and Liberty’s offense is much better than South Alabama’s. Liberty is finally getting into their groove after a sluggish opening to the season and knocked off a good ECU team by double digits last week.
Liberty -3.5 -110 (2 units)
Kentucky @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This game is a huge contrast of styles, and it’ll be strength on strength when the Ole Miss offense takes on the Kentucky defense. We still don’t know much about Ole Miss- the best team they’ve faced this season is #90 Wake Forest. Kentucky, meanwhile, got Georgia to play the kind of game that Kentucky wanted to play (low scoring and boring) and I think that they can do that against other top teams.
Kentucky +16.5 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville @ Notre Dame (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Notre Dame is fifth in my model, and would be second behind Ohio State if I tossed out the Northern Illinois game. That’s a big “if”, of course, but the Irish have been truly excellent in all three of their other games this season. Louisville has a talented roster but I am not sold on Tyler Shough as a big time QB and Notre Dame is much better than people realize.
Notre Dame -4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 4 2024
I was in Chapel Hill for what might have been the game of the day in Week 4 as James Madison knocked off North Carolina 70-50. Mack Brown’s tenure at UNC has always felt like a bit of a missed opportunity- QBs like Sam Howell and Drake Maye are not going to just walk through the door at Alabama, let alone North Carolina. I do think the Tar Heels could do better than Mack- they are the flagship university in a growing state with tons of recruits.
Elsewhere, the most impactful games on the playoff included Kansas State imploding against BYU, USC falling to Michigan and Missouri scraping by Vanderbilt. Missouri looks really shaky and I don’t think they’re a serious playoff contender anymore.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
No changes in my top 4 this week. My model still doesn’t trust Utah and thus Iowa State remains my pick to win an increasingly murky Big 12. Miami was really impressive in a road win over South Florida.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Liberty
6 Oregon vs. 11 Ole Miss
7 Texas vs. 10 Tennessee
8 Clemson vs. 9 Penn State
In my eyes, Clemson has fully rebounded from their loss to Georgia. Their schedule is really light with Louisville and South Carolina the main threats- I think an 11-2 Clemson team that wins out before an ACC title game loss to Miami should make the field. My model is still lower on Ole Miss and Tennessee than most others so I have them on the road in the first round as opposed to at home.
I’ve moved Liberty up to my 12 seed for the first time all year. Given their pillow soft schedule, the Flames would have to go 13-0 to make the playoff and would likely need all the other G5 conference champions to have multiple losses. With Liberty beating a good ECU team, and losses by Memphis, Toledo and Northern Illinois this week, that scenario is looking significantly more likely.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Oregon
Notre Dame
Miami
Texas
Clemson
Penn State
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Iowa State
LSU
Louisville
Michigan
Missouri
USC
Washington
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Kansas State
Virginia Tech
Auburn
SMU
Next Ten: Indiana, UCF, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida, Utah, Arizona
Louisville is the best team in the sport that no one is talking about. They travel to Notre Dame this week- a win there and they’re firmly in the playoff hunt. Michigan rebounded after their win over USC. Their complete inability to pass will put a ceiling on them but they’re still extremely talented and clearly a top 25 team. SMU was a preseason sleeper ACC pick and has snuck back into my top 25 after a blowout win over TCU. Plus, their early loss to BYU doesn’t look so bad now that BYU is 4-0.
College Football Picks Week 4 2024
Last week was pretty bad. East Carolina +3.5 was my only pick that covered. It’s a good thing I got that line early, because it closed at East Carolina PK and they lost by 2. I was really surprised to see Vanderbilt lay a total egg against Georgia State. Time to forget about week 3 and move on to week 4.
I’ve also added some new futures bets this week that are at the bottom of this post.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Toledo @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Toledo pulled off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, going on the road and beating Mississippi State 41-17 as a double digit underdog. I’m going to continue to ride the Toledo train this week- the Rockets have the best roster in the MAC according to my model’s talent ranking. Western Kentucky is a decent team but I think they’re overrated after beating up on a really poor MTSU team last week. I am shocked Toledo is an underdog here as they are a dark horse playoff contender.
Toledo +1.5 -110 (3 units)
Fresno State @ New Mexico (Saturday, 7:30 PM Central)
This pick should not be a surprise given that I bet on New Mexico and against Fresno State in the preseason. New Mexico has been a pleasant surprise despite their 0-3 start- they are 3-0 ATS and should be able to beat their win total of 2. New Mexico put up 448 yards on Auburn last week and I like their chances to hang with Fresno State.
New Mexico +17 -110 (2 units)
South Alabama @ Appalachian State (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
South Alabama got off to a disappointing start with two losses to G5 teams, but righted the ship last week with an astounding 87 points against FCS Northwestern State. The Jaguars still have one of the more talented rosters in the Sun Belt. I am fading App State for the second week in a row after they were decimated by Clemson.
South Alabama +7 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
These two teams both figure to be near the bottom of the Big 12. Houston got the doors blown off in week 1 against UNLV (loyal readers will unfortunately remember that game), but has been very impressive since, covering their last two by double digits. Cincinnati might be the most poorly managed program in the Power Five and I think they’re headed for last place in the conference.
Houston +5.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I do not understand this line. Louisville is a solid team (they’re in my model’s top 25 with two blowout wins over bad teams) but Georgia Tech is as well. Some of the air was taken out of the Georgia Tech balloon after their loss to Syracuse, but I think that was more about Kyle McCord’s epic performance than Georgia Tech’s issues. The Yellow Jackets are a clear bowl team and should keep this close.
Georgia Tech +10.5 -110 (1 unit)
NC State @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
NC State has been one of the most disappointing teams of the year. They barely beat FCS Western Carolina and then struggled with an awful Louisiana Tech team last week. QB Grayson McCall was injured against Louisiana Tech and it is unclear if he will play in this matchup. Clemson is still the most talented team in the ACC and should dominate NC State.
Clemson -14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Rutgers @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I think people got a bit too low on Virginia Tech after their loss to Vanderbilt. There’s a reason this team was a sleeper pick to win the ACC in the preseason and they showed that in a dominating road win at Old Dominion last week. They are far more talented than Rutgers (who is 2-0, but has played no one) and I expect them to win easily here.
Virginia Tech -5.5 -110 (1 unit)
Alabama to make SEC Title Game +270 (2 units)
Most people would agree that Georgia, Alabama and Texas are the three best teams in the SEC. My model has the three teams within just a few points of each other, as do most other models. Alabama’s schedule is relatively easy by the standards of the SEC- they avoid Texas, host Georgia, and avoid my #4 and #5 SEC teams in Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I really don’t get this line, I think Alabama might have better odds of making the SEC Title game than Georgia and they’re priced way lower.
Tulane to win the AAC +250 (1 unit)
Tulane is 1-2 but has acquitted themselves well in close losses to good teams in Kansas State and Oklahoma. Those non-conference losses don’t hurt the Green Wave in the conference standings, and I think they’re dead even with Memphis for the title of best team in the league. Tulane should make the AAC title game- they get to host both Memphis and USF and every other conference game is against a team outside my top 100- and if they get there, they very well can win the title game.
Indiana to make the Playoff +3000 (0.5 units)
Indiana to make the Playoff? Have I lost my mind? Hear me out on this one- the Hoosiers have been the biggest surprise of the season so far, they’re 25th in my ratings and are in the 20s in most other computer ratings as well. They have to travel to Ohio State, but I actually have them favored in every other game on the schedule as they avoid Oregon, Penn State and USC. A 10-2 Big Ten team is very likely to make the Playoff and I think this is a great long shot bet.
College Football Ratings- Week 3 2024
Week 3 was light on earth-shattering results but we nearly got one in Lexington. Georgia was lucky to escape Kentucky with a win- they were getting pushed around by the Kentucky front seven and ran for only 102 yards on 30 carries. We had interesting results elsewhere- Georgia State, Toledo, Memphis and Washington State all won as decent underdogs.
Bracketology
1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Miami
4 Iowa State
I considered giving the SEC auto-bid to Alabama but I’m keeping Georgia there for now. Miami moves back into the ACC autobid, they passed Clemson in my ratings after a 62-0 demolition of Ball State this weekend.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Northern Illinois
6 Oregon vs. 11 USC
7 Texas vs. 10 Ole Miss
8 Clemson vs. 9 Penn State
Oregon finally looked like the team we’ve been expecting all offseason in a dominating win over Oregon State. The Ducks won’t face a real test until Ohio State comes to Eugene on October 12th. I finally relented and moved Ole Miss into my field, replacing a Missouri team that was underwhelming as a two touchdown favorite against Boston College.
Top 25
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Alabama
Oregon
Notre Dame (+6)
Texas (-1)
Miami (+1)
Texas A&M (-1)
Clemson (-3)
Penn State
Ole Miss (+2)
Missouri (-3)
LSU (-1)
Tennessee (+4)
USC (-1)
Iowa State (-1)
Michigan
Louisville (+1)
Virginia Tech (+1)
Oklahoma (-4)
Georgia Tech (+1)
Kansas State (+6)
Boston College (+9)
Kansas (+2)
Indiana (+18)
Next Ten: Auburn, UCF, Kentucky, South Carolina, SMU, Iowa, Boise State, Washington, TCU, Arizona
Computer models, including mine, continue to love Texas A&M. I expect the Aggies to be unranked, but favored, when Missouri comes to College Station in a few weeks. My model is finally starting to catch on to Kansas State who dominated Arizona on Friday night. I was bullish on Indiana in the preseason but even I did not expect them to crack my top 25 this season, but the Hoosiers decimated UCLA on the road. Indiana is 3-0 and might be favored in every game until November.
College Football Picks Week 3 2024
Week 2 was a mixed bag where I finished close to 0 units for the second week in a row. I had some easy covers (Washington State -1.5, Boise State +18.5) and one really lucky cover (Baylor +15.5). Unfortunately most of my losses were not close, UTSA -3 against Texas State was a particularly bad loss. Texas State has become a bit of a bogey team for me, my model really does not know how to handle their unusual transfer-heavy approach to roster construction.
In addition to the picks below, loyal readers will remember that I bet Arizona +8 against Kansas State as part of my preseason bets. That line is now Arizona +6.5- I would’ve considered a unit there if I didn’t already have money on the game at a better price.
Week 1: -0.38 units
Week 2: -0.34 units
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Oklahoma State is ranked 13th in the AP top 25, which is a complete joke. The Cowboys allowed 600 yards of offense to a mediocre Arkansas team last week and needed a comedy of late Arkansas errors to win. The most concerning part of the game was the complete inability to get star RB Ollie Gordon going. Gordon was supposed to be a Heisman front runner but was held to 49 yards on 17 carries. Tulsa is a mediocre G5 team, but they should not be three touchdown home underdogs here.
Tulsa +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Vanderbilt @ Georgia State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Vanderbilt has been one of the surprises of the season so far. They beat Virginia Tech as a double digit underdog in Week 1 and scored so many points last week against Alcorn State that they ran out of fireworks at the stadium. It’s a massive leap forward for a program that is only three years removed from getting demolished at home by East Tennessee State. Georgia State is a team in transition after HC Shawn Elliott left in the middle of the offseason and struggled to get past Chattanooga last week. Vandy should roll here.
Vanderbilt -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Appalachian State @ East Carolina (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
App State was supposed to be a contender for the G5 playoff spot but looked awful against Clemson last week. It is one thing to lose to Clemson but quite another to allow touchdowns on each of the first 8 drives of the game. On the other hand, ECU is 2-0, already matching their win total from last year’s disastrous 2-10 season. The Pirates were hilariously unlucky to go 2-10 last year and should make a bowl game this year. App State looked so suspect last week that I don’t think they should be a road favorite here.
East Carolina +3.5 -110 (2 units)
Ole Miss @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
Ole Miss has played absolutely nobody to start the season, although they have won their two games by a combined score of 128-3. Loyal readers will remember that I was very low on the Rebels in the preseason and this is my first real opportunity to fade them. Wake Forest has an experienced QB in Hank Bachmeier and can hang in there against the Rebels.
Wake Forest +23.5 -110 (1 unit)
Colorado @ Colorado State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I tried to set realistic expectations for Colorado this season, but they have failed to even meet those through two games. A 28-10 loss to Nebraska does not really tell the full story- the Buffaloes were out of the game from the jump. Colorado State, a newly minted Pac-12 program, kept this game close last year and should be able to do so again here.
Colorado State +9.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 2 2024
Week 2 challenged a lot of assumptions that I had about the state of the college football landscape. Some teams that I was feeling pretty good about, like Notre Dame, Penn State and Oklahoma, looked awful. Other teams that I thought were in for a rough season, like South Carolina, Arizona State and BYU, looked pretty good.
Bracketology
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Clemson
4 Iowa State
Clemson rocketed up my rankings this year after they demolished App State. The Mountaineers were supposed to be one of the better teams in the G5, and Clemson scored 8 straight touchdowns to start the game to beat them. This put the Tigers narrowly ahead of Miami in my ratings so I am giving them the ACC auto bid for now.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Northern Illinois
6 Texas vs. 11 USC
7 Oregon vs. 10 Missouri
8 Miami vs. 9 Penn State
Oregon remains in my projected bracket despite significantly underperforming expectations in both games so far. Penn State falls outside of my projected top 8 after a shaky performance against Bowling Green, and thus is projected to travel to Miami. My model viewed Northern Illinois as a MAC contender prior to their win over Bowling Green and now says they are the third best G5 team behind Boise State and Memphis. Given that they have the best win any G5 team is likely to pick up all year, I’ve slotted them in as the 12 seed.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Alabama
Oregon (+1)
Texas (+3)
Clemson (+8)
Texas A&M (+3)
Miami (+1)
Missouri (+3)
Penn State (-6)
Notre Dame (-4)
LSU (-6)
Ole Miss (+2)
USC (+11)
Iowa State (+1)
Oklahoma (-5)
Michigan (-4)
Tennessee (+10)
Louisville (+1)
Virginia Tech (-2)
Auburn (-2)
Georgia Tech
Arizona (-6)
UCF (+10)
South Carolina (+21)
Next Ten: Kansas, TCU, Kansas State, SMU, Florida, Boise State, Boston College, Washington, Iowa, Arkansas
My mode is not the only computer that loves Texas A&M, although most people would call me crazy for having them in the top 10. The Aggies still have an incredibly talented roster, and while they have some question marks at QB, I expect their defense to suffocate Florida this weekend. I think that a lot of people are sleeping on Louisville. The Cardinals demolished a solid Jacksonville State team last week and look like the clear third best team in the ACC behind Clemson and Miami. South Carolina vaults into my top 25 after demolishing Kentucky on the road, but faces a stern test from LSU this week.
College Football Picks Week 2 2024
I’ve gotten one thing right so far this season- selling Florida State. The FSU/Boston College game is in the 4th quarter at time of writing but I will preemptively give myself credit for winning Boston College +17.5. It is hard for me to remember a team that started the year in the top 10 that has face planted this hard, this fast. Even 2007 Michigan turned out to have a decent year after they lost to App State.
Week 1: -0.38 units
Baylor @ Utah (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
One of my favorite bets in the preseason was Utah under 9.5 wins. I also am a bit bullish on Baylor- the Bears have a much better roster than last year’s disastrous record would indicate. Baylor should also have improved QB play with Toledo transfer DeQuan Finn manning the offense. I was high on Baylor and low on Utah in the preseason and that didn’t change after week 1.
Baylor +15.5 -112 (2 units)
Sam Houston State @ UCF (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
I like Sam Houston this year- I had a preseason flyer on them to make the CUSA Championship game at +550. This looks quite good after they blew out Rice last week as an 11 point underdog. I’ll stick on the Sam Houston train this week, especially as they play a UCF team that got surprisingly shaky QB play from KJ Jefferson in week 1 against New Hampsihre.
Sam Houston State +23 -112 (2 units)
Texas Tech @ Washington State (Saturday, 9 PM Central)
Texas Tech scraped by FCS Abilene Christian last week, and they really could have lost if not for some awful playcalling down the stretch by ACU. Despite being in conference limbo in the two team Pac-12, Washington State was able to hold onto a lot of their key contributors from last year’s squad. I viewed these teams as about equal in the preseason and TTU looked awful last week, so a line of 1.5 seems a bit small.
Washington State -1.5 -105 (1 unit)
UTSA @ Texas State (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
These two teams are both popular preseason sleeper picks to take the G5 berth in the 12 team playoff. My model is a bit lower than the consensus on Texas State though- they still don’t have the years of recruiting history that I’d like to see from a roster ready to compete at that level. Add in a very shaky week 1 performance against FCS Lamar and I like UTSA here.
UTSA +3 -115 (1 unit)
UAB @ Louisiana Monroe (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’m sad about this line- I saw it open at UAB -8.5 and was ready to pounce on that for several units. Unfortunately, by the time I was able to bet the line had moved all the way to 13. (This wasn’t my only big miss of Sunday- I also loved Maryland -7 and it was -10.5 by the time I got around to betting). I’ll still make a small bet on UAB here- I’m bullish on Bryan Vincent in the long term at ULM, but his current roster might be the worst in FBS.
UAB -13 -108 (1 unit)
Boise State @ Oregon (Saturday, 9 PM Central)
Boise State played a thriller in week 1, with possible first round draft pick Ashton Jeanty rushing for six touchdowns in a back and forth win over Georgia Southern. My model was very impressed with the Broncos’ rushing attack and has them on the doorstep of the top 25. Oregon, meanwhile, looked shockingly bad against FCS Idaho and fell considerably in my model. 18 is too big a line for this game, I think Boise can hang in there a bit against the Ducks.
Boise State +18 -108 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings- Week 1 2024
Week 1 was entertaining but contained relatively few surprises. At time of writing (I am publishing this prior to the Sunday and Monday games given my schedule this weekend), favorites went 29-9 straight up. Vanderbilt, Sam Houston State and Nevada were the 3 double digit underdogs to win. This is definitely a bit more chalk than we normally see on week 1.
Bracketology
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Miami (FL)
4 Iowa State
Georgia is going to be the consensus #1 team everywhere after their dominant win over Clemson. The gap between them and Ohio State is as big as the gap between Ohio State and #12 Oklahoma.
Everyone is going to have Miami (FL) in their projected playoff after their dominating win over Florida. At least I can say I was first as I had them in my field last week as well.
5 Alabama vs. 12 Boise State
6 Oregon vs. 11 Arizona
7 Penn State vs. 10 Missouri
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 LSU
Alabama jumped up to my top at-large team after they thrashed Western Kentucky and Oregon struggled with Idaho. I’ll take a flier and put Arizona in this week’s field after their dominating offensive performance against New Mexico. Boise State picked up a nice win at Georgia Southern and has put some distance between them and the rest of the Group of Five.
Top 25
Numbers in parentheses represent changes in ranking from last week. Reminder that all rankings are prior to the USC/LSU and Florida State/Boston College games.
Georgia
Ohio State
Alabama (+2)
Penn State (+3)
Oregon (-2)
LSU (-2)
Notre Dame (+4)
Texas
Miami (FL) (+6)
Texas A&M (-4)
Oklahoma (-2)
Missouri
Michigan
Clemson (-4)
Ole Miss (+4)
Iowa State (-2)
Arizona (+1)
Virginia Tech (-1)
Auburn (+5)
Louisville
SMU (+1)
Georgia Tech (+17)
Kentucky
TCU (+6)
USC (-1)
Next Ten: Florida, Kansas, Tennessee, Iowa, Maryland, Florida State, Kansas State, Boise State, UCF, Northwestern
Penn State looked great against West Virginia and will not face a real test until they travel to USC in mid-October. Georgia Tech climbs into my top 25 after their wins over Florida State and Georgia State- this is their first appearance in my top 25 in a decade. A few teams such as Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn rose a few spots after beating up on FCS teams.
College Football Picks Week 1 2024
Week 0 was a fun appetizer for the season. It was a good week for my picks as I have a bunch of short Florida State exposure (FSU under 9.5 wins, FSU to miss the playoff) and they laid an egg against Georgia Tech. It was almost a great weekend, as I have Nevada over 2.5 wins and New Mexico over 2 wins and they both nearly won as double digit underdogs. Week 1 features only 40 FBS vs. FBS games so I only have a few picks this weekend.
Ohio @ Syracuse (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’m generally pretty good at predicting betting lines, but this one really took me by surprise. Ohio won 10 games last year and I project them to finish 4th in the MAC. They’re a perfectly average G5 team. Syracuse is in their first game under new head coach Fran Brown, and while I am bullish on the future there, I expect some growing pains in year 1. Syracuse is 62nd in my ratings, near the bottom of the ACC, and should not be a two touchdown favorite over a competent team like Ohio.
Ohio +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Ohio ML +680 (1 unit)
UNLV @ Houston (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Houston was an abject disaster last year and Dana Holgorsen was finally shown the door at the end of the season. Willie Fritz takes over after an amazing run at Tulane and brought over many players with him, making this a faster rebuild. UNLV was a very fun team last year but ran unsustainably hot in close games and they also need to replace electric QB Jayden Maiava. Houston is by far the more physical team and I think they should win this one.
Houston -1 -112 (2 units)
Boston College @ Florida State (Monday, 6:30 PM Central)
It’s well established that I’m a Florida State hater this year, and I was validated with their week 0 loss to Georgia Tech. I wish I had posted my week 1 picks prior to week 0 as I was going to bet Boston College +21.5 in this game, but FSU looked so bad that I still like this price. Boston College turns over a new leaf under new head coach (and Brown University alum) Bill O’Brien and there is enough talent on this roster that they should escape the basement of the ACC. I will continue piling on the bets against Florida State.
Boston College +17 -110 (2 units)
Clemson vs. Georgia (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This is the first time Clemson has been a double digit underdog since a 2014 trip to Tallahassee to face Jameis Winston’s Florida State team. (That was four playoff appearances and two national championships ago). I am backing Clemson to win the ACC this year and think that they can keep things close with a Georgia team that may be figuring things out a little on offense after losing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey.
Clemson +13.5 -108 (1 unit)
2024 Preseason Top 25 and Bracketology
Week 1 is just days away, so it’s time to reveal my model’s preseason top 25. Starting this year I will also include my 12 team playoff bracketology every week. I’d like to build a college football bracketology model but I haven’t gotten around to it yet. In the meantime I’m just using my model’s rankings and making my own guesses about how it will turn into a 12 team bracket.
Top 25
Georgia (+2)
Ohio State
Oregon (-2)
LSU (+2)
Alabama (+3)
Texas A&M (+7)
Penn State
Texas (+3)
Oklahoma
Clemson (+5)
Notre Dame (-6)
Missouri (-2)
Michigan (-9)
Iowa State (+9)
Miami (FL) (+9)
Florida (+6)
Virginia Tech (+9)
Arizona (+4)
Ole Miss (+11)
Louisville (-8)
Florida State (-4)
SMU (-1)
Kentucky (+15)
Auburn (+12)
Iowa (+25)
Georgia opens the season as my preseason #1 for the third year running. The rest of my top 3 agrees with the consensus but after that I start to disagree, as I have LSU and Texas A&M in the spots where the AP poll has Texas and Ole Miss. The SEC will probably get 4 or 5 teams into the playoff, and I think that LSU and A&M have a great chance to take those spots.
In the Big Ten, I have Penn State a bit higher than Michigan, but both are quite some distance behind Ohio State and Oregon. Iowa sneaks in as my fifth ranked Big Ten team, both the AP Poll and I agree that they’re the 25th team.
I have Iowa State as my top rated team in a very crowded Big 12 but plenty of Big 12 teams are within shouting distance. Clemson is my ACC favorite as discussed in my season preview posts.
Bracketology
1 Georgia
2 Ohio State
3 Clemson
4 Iowa State
The top four teams are my four projected major conference champions. I’ve given the Big 12 nod to Iowa State for now but it really could be anybody.
5 Oregon vs. 12 Memphis
6 LSU vs. 11 Miami (FL)
7 Alabama vs. 10 Texas A&M
8 Penn State vs. 9 Notre Dame
I diverged a bit from just going down the list of my ratings here to account for schedules. I’ll put Texas A&M in despite a killer schedule. I think they’re a small favorite over Notre Dame in week 1 and let’s say they go 9-3 to grab one of the last playoff spots. I decided to give an at-large bid to the ACC, Miami avoids Clemson this year and maybe they lose the ACC title game to Clemson and get an at-large. Finally, I went with Memphis for my 12 seed- they’re in a dead heat with Boise State for top G5 team in my ratings and I think if both teams are 11-1 they will get the nod due to a stronger conference schedule.
2024 College Football Preseason Bets- Part 3
This is part 3 of my three part college football preseason bets series. I covered the four major conferences in the first two parts and today I’ll be tackling the Group of Five. You can find part 1 of the series here and part 2 here.
Sun Belt
Arkansas State over 5.5 wins -170 (4 units)
Arkansas State to win Sun Belt West +600 (2 units)
Arkansas State has gone through the wilderness recently with four consecutive losing seasons. However, the roots of a strong program are in place- the Red Wolves rattled off nine consecutive winning seasons from 2011 to 2019 and have one of the highest recent recruiting averages of any G5 program. However, the real reason to be bullish on this team is QB Jaylen Raynor. Raynor was Sun Belt Freshman of the Year as a true freshman last year and Arkansas State did very well to keep him in Jonesboro- there was a long line of major conference suitors waiting to grab him from the transfer portal. This team has always had the talent and facilities to be one of the best in their tier of the sport and I think this will be a breakout year.
American
Army under 6 wins -120 (4 units)
Army has joined the American for the 2024 season. They’ve been an independent for their entire history except for a brief seven year stint in CUSA twenty years ago. Army normally has the luxury of padding their schedule with a few easy wins (they’ve played multiple FCS times quite a bit in recent years) but those breaks in the schedule are now gone with a full conference slate. There are a few other structural disadvantages facing the Black Knights- the academies cannot add players via the transfer portal and changes to chop block rules have forced them to re-invent their offense. All of this adds up to a less talented team running an unfamiliar scheme against a tougher schedule- a recipe for a rebuilding season.
Rice over 6.5 wins -140 (1 unit)
Rice is coming off of back to back bowl seasons for the first time in a decade. Last year’s team was their best in recent years, knocking off local rival Houston as a double digit underdog. While their two big name players depart in QB JT Daniels and WR Luke McCaffrey, nearly every other player of significance is back. I expect this to be one of the best defensive teams in the AAC and they look significantly better than last year’s six win outfit.
Mountain West
New Mexico over 2 wins -130 (2 units)
New Mexico is one of the toughest jobs in FBS- they have no resources, no obvious recruiting territory and no history of success. However, long time readers of my blog will know that these are exactly the sorts of teams that I like betting on. This line implies that the Lobos are a bottom three team in the sport and I just don’t see that. They went 4-8 last year including a road win over a good Fresno State team, and while this year’s outfit is worse, I don’t think that they’re so bad that a 1-11 season should be the base case.
Fresno State under 8 wins +130 (2 units)
Fresno State was a deceptive 9-4 last year, sneaking past a bad Eastern Washington team in 2OT and winning close games left and right. I had them around the middle of the pack in the Mountain West despite the fact that they were flirting around the edges of the AP poll for much of the season. Since I think they had so much smoke and mirrors last year, I’m just lower on this year’s team than the consensus. They’re a solid team that should go to a bowl game but they’re not a conference title contender.
Nevada over 2.5 wins -110 (1 unit)
Like New Mexico, this is another really bad team whose win total has still been set too low. Nevada fired Ken Wilson after a disastrous two year tenure but made a really smart hire in former Montana State HC Jeff Choate. This year’s roster is clearly better than the awful rosters of the Wilson era and features a handful of former power conference players. Nevada will be at the bottom of the Mountain West but the difference between them and the rest of the league is small enough that they can find three wins.
Conference USA
Sam Houston State to make CUSA Title Game +550 (1 unit)
Sam Houston State made their FBS debut last year and got off to an 0-8 start that featured a parade of close losses. They finished 3-1 and were definitely better than their 3-9 overall record. Now in their second FBS season, they finally have a full roster designed for the 85 man scholarship limit. Liberty is the runaway favorite to win CUSA but the league is a total jumble after that. I think Sam Houston is in a virtual tie for second best in the league with several other teams which makes this a pretty attractive price.
2024 College Football Preseason Bets- Part 2
This is part 2 of my three part preseason bets series. If you missed part 1, you can find it here. Today I’ll cover the Big 12 and ACC before going over the Group of Five conferences in Part 3.
Big 12
Utah under 9.5 wins +125 (3 units)
There has been a rush to anoint a top team in the Big 12 this season and the consensus has latched onto Utah and Kansas State as the two main picks. The fact of the matter is that I have no clue who the best team in the Big 12 will be and neither do you- none of the conference’s sixteen (!) teams consistently recruit at a top 20 level, and none of them have the sort of structural advantages that Texas and Oklahoma long held over the rest of the league. Utah will be a good team, but I can’t support a win total of 9.5 for a team that doesn’t have a dominant talent advantage over the rest of their league.
Kansas State under 9.5 wins -150 (1 unit)
The same arguments I made in the Utah blurb apply here. The reason I am sizing this bet smaller is that Kansas State has an extremely promising QB in sophomore Avery Johnson. The sample size is small on him- he has less than 200 career snaps- but if he plays to his potential the Wildcats are a top 10 team. However, there are certainly a lot of outcomes where he is mediocre, and the rest of the roster is solid but not spectacular. K-State is the Big 12 team most likely to make a run deep into the playoffs but also might end up going 6-6.
Iowa State to make Big 12 Title Game +450 (1 unit)
I think there’s some good value on Iowa State here. As mentioned above, the top few teams in the Big 12 are pretty indistinguishable to me. Iowa State belongs in that group even if others don’t have them in the mix- they return nearly everyone from last year’s team and figure to be extremely strong on both lines.
Kansas to win the Big 12 +950 (1 unit)
Kansas is one of the highest variance teams in college football. If he’s healthy, Jalon Daniels is a top 5 quarterback in the sport. “If he’s healthy” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, as he has been on and off the field for two years. Kansas could very well end up 5-7, but if Daniels can stay on the field they might be the best team in the conference.
Arizona to win the Big 12 +1100 (1 unit)
Arizona was my most profitable team last year. I backed the Wildcats five times last year and they went 5-0 ATS in those games. HC Jedd Fisch departed for Washington and took some players with him, but exciting QB Noah Fifita and first team all-conference WR Tetairoa McMillan remain. The Wildcats were a legitimate top 15 team last year and I’m surprised I can get them at +1100 to win the Big 12 when they have the best QB/WR tandem in the conference.
Arizona +9.5 -110 @ Utah (2 units)
Arizona +8 -110 @ Kansas State (1 unit)
Iowa State +9 -110 @ Utah (2 units)
Iowa State PK -110 vs. Kansas State (1 unit)
I was able to find lookahead lines for a lot of Big 12 games this season. These four games all feature teams I’m backing this preseason playing teams that I’m fading so it’s a nice way to get a bit more exposure on my preseason opinions.
ACC
Florida State under 9.5 wins -110 (2 units)
Florida State to miss College Football Playoff -180 (2 units)
Florida +11.5 -110 vs. Florida State (2 units)
Florida State is going to take a pretty significant step back from last year’s 13-1 squad. With Jordan Travis departing for the NFL, I was really surprised to see them go after QB DJ Uiagalelei in the portal. DJU is a fine quarterback but I can’t imagine him being the starter for one of the top five teams in the nation. Talent departs up and down the roster with other studs like Keon Colemand and Jared Verse also off to the NFL. This is a hard schedule that features five or six potential top 25 teams and I think the ‘Noles are a significant step behind ACC favorites Clemson this year. For the second year in a row, I’m also throwing in a preseason bet on the Florida/Florida State game, I have that line in the low single digits.
Virginia over 4.5 wins +100 (2 units)
Virginia has always been a confusing team to me- they are in a great recruiting state and have plenty of money. There’s really not many structural differences between them and say, Tennessee. Despite this, the Cavaliers have spent exactly two weeks in the top 20 of the polls since 2007. I think that HC Tony Elliott is looking to harness these resources to build for the long term in Charlottesville and he should turn a corner in year three. QB Anthony Colandrea showed flashes of brilliance in his freshman season but also made some horrible mistakes. He will iron out those freshman mistakes and the talent elsewhere on this roster is no longer among the worst in the Power Five.
Clemson to win the ACC +350 (1 unit)
Clemson +4 -110 @ Florida State (1 unit)
Much has been made about HC Dabo Swinney’s archaic views on roster construction- Clemson was the only team outside the service academies to not add anyone in the portal this offseason. However, despite all the negative press, this is by far the most talented team in the ACC as the Tigers continue to sign top 10 classes on the regular. Only Miami and Florida State are even in the same ballpark as Clemson from a talent perspective. Even in their recent “down” years this has still been a top 15 team in the sport. I’ll also gladly back the best team in the ACC as a four point dog against Florida State.