Bracketology 2/22/2024
There’s some really strange resumes around the bubble this year that I don’t know what to do with. Consider Texas A&M (6-5 in Q1 and 2-4 in Q3???) who has lost to Vanderbilt and Arkansas in the last week. There’s also Wake Forest (a dismal 5-9 against Q1 and Q2, but predictive metrics and a NET in the 20s). We don’t have a lot of teams like these two in the historical data set to know what the committee will do with them.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona
2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette
3: Alabama, Iowa State, Duke, Creighton
4: Baylor, Auburn, San Diego State, Wisconsin
5: Clemson, Illinois, Texas Tech, BYU
6: Dayton, South Carolina, Florida, Utah State
7: Kentucky, Colorado State, St. Mary’s, Florida Atlantic
8: Washington State, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Boise State
9: TCU, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico
10: Texas, Grand Canyon, Nebraska, Northwestern
11: Providence, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, (Gonzaga/Texas A&M)
12: (Seton Hall/Wake Forest), James Madison, Indiana State, Princeton
13: McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont
14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Quinnipiac, High Point
15: Charleston, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Morehead State
16: Oakland, Southern, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Eastern Kentucky/North Dakota)
First Four Out: Villanova, Butler, Utah, Indiana State
Next Four Out: Princeton, Drake, McNeese State, Colorado
Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, St. John’s, Syracuse, South Florida, Rutgers, Oregon, SMU
Moving In: Wake Forest
Moving Out: Butler
Women’s Bracketology 2/19/2024
The race for the 1 seeds is heating up. I was surprised to see Colorado as a 1 seed in the committee’s early reveal on Thursday, but I’ve dropped them down to the 2 line after a weekend loss to Utah. This opens up two spots on the top line for Big Ten teams, as Iowa and Ohio State are now both #1 seeds.
I’ll update my women’s projection again in early March, and will look to update it weekly from there until Selection Sunday.
Bracketology 2/19/2024
The dream of a six bid Mountain West continues to become more of a reality. The committee showed a lot of respect to the league by giving San Diego State a 4 seed in their mid-season reveal on Saturday. Nevada was the most questionable of the six potential teams and they picked up an important comeback road win at UNLV over the weekend. Surprising as it may be, it looks like the Mountain West will send more teams than the Big East or ACC to this year’s tournament.
Bracketology 2/17/2024
The Selection Committee will announce their preliminary top 16 teams today. I feel reasonably confident that all of my top 15 teams will be included in the list but the last spot is a bit of a wild card. I was debating between two teams that played a fantastic matchup in last year’s Elite Eight- Creighton and San Diego State- but ultimately went with the Bluejays. Buckle in for what figures to be a great Saturday of college hoops.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona
2: Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State
3: Kansas, Baylor, Auburn, Alabama
4: Duke, Dayton, Illinois, Creighton
5: San Diego State, Texas Tech, South Carolina, BYU
6: Utah State, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
7: Florida Atlantic, Clemson, TCU, Colorado State
8: Michigan State, Ole Miss, St. Mary’s, Washington State
9: Virginia, New Mexico, Texas, Northwestern
10: Nebraska, Florida, Butler, Texas A&M
11: Indiana State, Providence, Grand Canyon, Boise State
12: (Utah/Nevada), (Mississippi State/Gonzaga), Princeton, James Madison
13: Samford, McNeese State, UC Irvine, UNC Wilmington
14: Morehead State, Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont
15: Eastern Washington, Quinnipiac, High Point, Oakland
16: Colgate, Southern, (South Dakota State/Eastern Kentucky), (Norfolk State/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Kansas State, Drake, Cincinnati, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova, Syracuse
Also Considered: Pittsburgh, Princeton, James Madison, Oregon, Memphis, Xavier, Colorado, Virginia Tech
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/15/2024
Iowa State is the best team in the country that no one is talking about. The Cyclones have their best team of the KenPom era and picked up their 5th Q1-A win of the season at Cincinnati on Tuesday. An 8-3 record in the Big 12 is no joke, and they’ve now passed Kansas for my last 2 seed.
On the bubble, Indiana State took a horrible Q4 loss at home to Illinois State this week. I was feeling quite good about the Sycamores’ at-large chances but they would be ill advised to lose again before Arch Madness.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona
2: Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State
3: Kansas, Baylor, Auburn, Alabama
4: Duke, Dayton, Illinois, Creighton
5: San Diego State, Texas Tech, South Carolina, BYU
6: Utah State, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
7: Florida Atlantic, Clemson, TCU, Colorado State
8: Michigan State, Northwestern, New Mexico, Ole Miss
9: St. Mary’s, Virginia, Washington State, Texas
10: Nebraska, Utah, Florida, Butler
11: Texas A&M, Indiana State, Providence, Grand Canyon
12: (Boise State/Mississippi State), (Nevada/Gonzaga), Princeton, James Madison
13: Samford, McNeese State, UC Irvine, UNC Wilmington
14: Morehead State, Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont
15: Eastern Washington, Quinnipiac, High Point, Oakland
16: Colgate, Southern, (South Dakota State/Eastern Kentucky), (Norfolk State/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Kansas State, Drake, Cincinnati, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova, Syracuse
Also Considered: Pittsburgh, Memphis, Colorado, Princeton, James Madison, Oregon, Xavier, Virginia Tech
Moving In: Gonzaga
Moving Out: Cincinnati
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
West Coast: 2
Bracketology 2/12/2024
College hoops is built on these February weekends where big games happen up and down the seed list. Some notable winners this weekend include Florida, who demolished Auburn, and Gonzaga, who got their first Q1 of the season at Kentucky. Both teams have had predictive metrics much better than their resumes all season and took big steps to tournament bids this weekend.
More great games await this week. Wake Forest is another bubble team that has stellar computer numbers and little to show for it on the court. The Demon Deacons will get a chance to pick up their biggest win of the season at Duke tomorrow night.
Bracketology 2/10/2024
The biggest winner of the past week is Nevada. The Wolfpack were several spots out of the field to start the week but picked up their two best wins of the season against Utah State and San Diego State and have vaulted up to the 10 line. The Mountain West looks likely to follow up their 4 bid (and national championship game appearance) season last year with a 6 bid season this year.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee
2: Arizona, North Carolina, Kansas, Marquette
3: Baylor, Auburn, Alabama, Iowa State
4: Illinois, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Dayton
5: Duke, Creighton, Oklahoma, San Diego State
6: BYU, Florida Atlantic, Texas Tech, Utah State
7: Kentucky, Colorado State, Clemson, Utah
8: TCU, New Mexico, Ole Miss, Indiana State
9: Virginia, Northwestern, St. Mary’s, Texas
10: Nebraska, Michigan State, Nevada, Grand Canyon
11: Texas A&M, Washington State, Boise State, Providence
12: (Butler/Cincinnati), (St. John’s/Mississippi State), Princeton, Samford
13: McNeese State, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Kansas State, Florida, Seton Hall, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Colorado, Oregon, Memphis, Princeton
Also Considered: Xavier, Villanova, Gonzaga, Richmond, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami (FL)
Moving In: Nevada
Moving Out: Florida
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
Bracketology 2/5/2024
The interesting action of the day was in the Big Ten. Purdue increased their stranglehold on the #1 overall seed with a big win at Wisconsin while Nebraska gave Illinois a real run for their money in Champaign. The Cornhuskers are yet to win a Big Ten road game but home wins over Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State are enough to have them safely in my projected field.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Kansas, Arizona, Marquette
3: Wisconsin, Alabama, Baylor, Dayton
4: Illinois, Auburn, Iowa State, South Carolina
5: Creighton, Duke, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State
6: BYU, Utah State, Texas Tech, Ole Miss
7: Oklahoma, Utah, Kentucky, TCU
8: New Mexico, Colorado State, Texas, Nebraska
9: Indiana State, Michigan State, St. Mary’s, Northwestern
10: Clemson, Grand Canyon, Washington State, Virginia
11: Boise State, St. John’s, Texas A&M, Butler
12: (Cincinnati/Florida), (Providence/Mississippi State), Princeton, McNeese State
13: Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Villanova, Colorado, Memphis, Nevada
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Kansas State, Princeton, Oregon
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Richmond, Syracuse, Wake Forest, NC State, Xavier, Georgia
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 9
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
Women’s Bracketology 2/4/2024
Now that the calendar has turned to February it is time for my first bracketology projection for this year’s women’s tournament. Unsurprisingly, the undefeated South Carolina Gamecocks occupy the #1 overall seed. After that, the field is a bit messy, with a half dozen other teams having solid cases for a 1 seed.
There’s a distinct west coast flavor to the top of the bracket with 4 Pac-12 teams and Gonzaga among the protected seeds. I don’t know if there will be enough room for both Stanford and UCLA on the 1 line at the end of the season, their matchup this afternoon will go a long ways to determining who holds that spot.
Men’s Bracketology 2/4/2024
It looks increasingly likely that we will have our first NCAA tournament without Gonzaga in my lifetime, as the ‘Zags lost at home to St. Mary’s last night and are running low on quality win opportunities. However, in a shocking twist, there will likely be a different team from eastern Washington in the field as Washington State continues to rattle off wins and is trending towards their first NCAA tournament since 2008.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin
3: Marquette, Alabama, Baylor, Dayton
4: Illinois, Auburn, Iowa State, South Carolina
5: Creighton, Duke, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State
6: BYU, Utah State, Texas Tech, Ole Miss
7: Oklahoma, Utah, Kentucky, TCU
8: Nebraska, New Mexico, Colorado State, Texas
9: Indiana State, Michigan State, St. Mary’s, Northwestern
10: Clemson, Providence, Grand Canyon, Washington State
11: Virginia, Boise State, St. John’s, Texas A&M
12: (Butler/Florida), (Cincinnati/Mississippi State), Princeton, McNeese State
13: Samford, Appalachian State, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Colorado, Memphis, Nevada, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Kansas State, Princeton, Villanova, Oregon
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Richmond, Syracuse, Wake Forest, NC State, Xavier, Georgia
Moving In: Virginia, Cincinnati
Moving Out: Colorado, Nevada
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 9
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
Bracketology 2/3/2024
I had dreams of a 2-bid Ivy League a few weeks ago but those have pretty much evaporated as Princeton dropped back to back road games against Cornell and Yale. Those three teams are all very solid, highlighting yet another banner year for Ivy hoops- I would not want to be the 4 or 5 seed that draws them in March.
1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Kansas, Wisconsin, Marquette
3: Arizona, Iowa State, Dayton, Alabama
4: Illinois, Duke, Auburn, Baylor
5: South Carolina, Creighton, Utah State, Texas Tech
6: Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, TCU, Ole Miss
7: BYU, Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State
8: Northwestern, Nebraska, Utah, New Mexico
9: Colorado State, Indiana State, St. John’s, Michigan State
10: Providence, Boise State, Texas, Grand Canyon
11: Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Washington State, Florida
12: (Butler/Colorado), (Texas A&M/Nevada), Princeton, McNeese State
13: Appalachian State, Samford, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Virginia, Syracuse, Oregon, Memphis
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Richmond, Kansas State
Also Considered: Princeton, Villanova, Cincinnati, Georgia, Drake, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Xavier
Moving In: Butler
Moving Out: Virginia
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
Bracketology 2/1/2024
South Carolina was the biggest winner of the week with their road win over Tennessee. The Gamecocks were on no one’s radar in the preseason but have leaped into the top 10 in strength of record after beating Kentucky and Tennessee in the last week.
1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Kansas, Marquette
3: Arizona, Iowa State, Dayton, Alabama
4: Illinois, Creighton, Duke, Auburn
5: Baylor, South Carolina, Utah State, Texas Tech
6: Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, TCU, Ole Miss
7: BYU, Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State
8: Northwestern, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado State
9: Indiana State, St. John’s, Nebraska, Michigan State
10: Providence, Boise State, Texas, St. Mary’s
11: Mississippi State, Grand Canyon, Washington State, Florida
12: Princeton, (Colorado/Texas A&M), (Nevada/Virginia), McNeese State
13: Appalachian State, Samford, UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech
14: Vermont, Akron, High Point, Morehead State
15: Eastern Washington, UNC Wilmington, Quinnipiac, Oakland
16: Colgate, South Dakota State, (Eastern Kentucky/Southern), (Norfolk State/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Syracuse, Oregon, Memphis, Seton Hall
Next Four Out: Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Kansas State
Also Considered: Villanova, Cincinnati, Georgia, Drake, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Florida State, Xavier
Moving In: Florida, Virginia
Moving Out: Memphis, Syracuse
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 6
Mountain West: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 4
Bracketology 1/29/2024
For the first time in my 14 years of bracketology, I’m projecting Washington State to make the tournament. The Cougars have put together a few good seasons under HC Kyle Smith but look to have their best squad since Klay Thompson was in Pullman and beat both Utah and Colorado at home this week.
Elsewhere in the field, I dropped Villanova out of my projection. Villanova has some great wins but is now 11-9 and only has 1 win against a real team (no, DePaul does not count) since Christmas.
Bracketology 1/27/2024
I’m interested to see how many bids the Big 12 is able to get to the tournament this year. It’s been the best conference in college basketball for several years now, but the win/loss numbers are bound to get ugly for some bubble teams as 12 of the 14 teams in the league are top 70 teams. If we’re going to get a 14 or 15 loss team in the tournament this year, it’s likely to come from the Big 12.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Dayton
3: Marquette, Baylor, Arizona, Auburn
4: Kentucky, Illinois, Creighton, Alabama
5: Iowa State, Duke, Clemson, BYU
6: Colorado State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Utah State
7: San Diego State, South Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Nebraska
8: Memphis, St. John’s, Texas Tech, Colorado
9: Ole Miss, Utah, Villanova, Northwestern
10: Seton Hall, New Mexico, Grand Canyon, Princeton
11: Michigan State, TCU, Boise State, (Nevada/Cincinnati)
12: St. Mary’s, Indiana State, (Texas/Oregon), James Madison
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Youngstown State
16: Southern, Stetson, (South Dakota State/Colgate), (NC Central/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Washington State, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Misssissippi State
Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Georgia, James Madison
Also Considered: Miami (FL), Florida, Drake, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Butler, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Moving In: Nevada, Oregon
Moving Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
Big East: 6
Mountain West: 6
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/22/2024
The bubble is once again full of mediocre power conference teams- it doesn’t take much to play your way back into contention. One good example of this is Syracuse- the Orange have done very little all year but back to back wins over fellow mediocre teams Pitt and Miami have put them into my First Four Out. Elsewhere, the Big 12 is looking to make its case for double digit bids as this year’s supersized Big 12 remains one of the best conferences college hoops has ever seen.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Arizona, Auburn
3: Dayton, Kentucky, Marquette, Wisconsin
4: Illinois, Baylor, Creighton, Oklahoma
5: Colorado State, BYU, Iowa State, Duke
6: Clemson, Alabama, Texas A&M, Utah State
7: San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Texas Tech
8: Seton Hall, Nebraska, St. John’s, Utah
9: Villanova, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Michigan State
10: Colorado, Grand Canyon, Princeton, Cincinnati
11: Boise State, New Mexico, TCU, (Mississippi State/Ohio State)
12: St. Mary’s, (Kansas State/Northwestern), Indiana State, James Madison
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Oakland
16: Southern, Stetson, (Denver/Colgate), (NC Central/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Oregon, Texas, Nevada, Syracuse
Next Four Out: James Madison, Georgia, Miami (FL), Washington State
Also Considered: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Florida, Providence, NC State, Butler, San Francisco, SMU
Moving In: Boise State, Kansas State
Moving Out: Nevada, Oregon
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 10
SEC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 3
Pac-12: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/20/2024
Over the course of the season we’re seeing a lot of teams that overperformed their predictive metrics regress a bit. Just this week, Memphis took a Q4 loss to South Florida while South Carolina and Ole Miss both lost to mediocre SEC teams. Now I’m waiting for the other side of the coin- teams like Xavier and Michigan State that have underperformed their per-possession stats picking up some wins.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Kansas, Houston
2: North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Auburn
3: Dayton, Baylor, Duke, Kentucky
4: Wisconsin, BYU, Marquette, Illinois
5: Alabama, Colorado State, San Diego State, Oklahoma
6: Clemson, Creighton, Utah State, Memphis
7: Florida Atlantic, Seton Hall, Iowa State, St. John’s
8: Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Villanova
9: Colorado, Cincinnati, Nebraska, South Carolina
10: Texas Tech, Utah, Princeton, Nevada
11: TCU, New Mexico, Northwestern, (Michigan State/Oregon)
12: (Mississippi State/Ohio State), Indiana State, James Madison, St. Mary’s
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Oakland
16: Southern, Stetson, (Colgate/NC Central), (Denver/Central Connecticut)
First Four Out: Indiana State, Miami (FL), Boise State, Washington State
Next Four Out: James Madison, St. Mary’s, Georgia, Kansas State
Also Considered: NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, San Francisco, Providence, Texas, Butler
Moving In: New Mexico, Ohio State
Moving Out: Miami (FL), Boise State
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/16/2024
There’s been a lot of turmoil at the top of the bracket as nearly half of my protected seeds have lost in the last week. This has faulted Connecticut up to a 1 seed while Arizona falls down to the 2 line. There are so few quality win opportunities in the Pac-12 this year that Arizona may have a hard time climbing back up to the 1 line.
Elsewhere, I dropped Gonzaga out of the bracket for St. Mary’s after the Gaels’ impressive road win at Santa Clara. Neither team has an at-large quality resume right now, and this looks like the first 1 bid WCC since 2018.
1: Purdue, Connecticut, Kansas, Houston
2: North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Baylor
3: Tennessee, Dayton, Auburn, Clemson
4: Duke, Marquette, Kentucky, Memphis
5: Creighton, Alabama, BYU, Utah State
6: Colorado State, Oklahoma, San Diego State, Illinois
7: Iowa State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, St. John’s
8: Florida Atlantic, Texas A&M, Grand Canyon, Nebraska
9: Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Villanova, Utah
10: TCU, Nevada, Princeton, Colorado
11: Miami (FL), Oregon, Cincinnati, (Mississippi State/Northwestern)
12: (Michigan State/Boise State), Indiana State, James Madison, St. Mary’s
13: McNeese State, Samford, Charleston, UC Irvine
14: Akron, Morehead State, Western Kentucky, Montana
15: High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont, Oakland
16: Southern, Stetson, (Colgate/NC Central), (Denver/Merrimack)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Indiana State, Ohio State, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: James Madison, Texas, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga
Also Considered: Indiana, Butler, Washington State, Providence, Florida, San Francisco, NC State, Syracuse
Moving In: Miami (FL), TCU, Boise State, St. Mary’s
Moving Out: Texas, Ohio State, Providence, Gonzaga
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/12/2024
Michigan State is going to present a very interesting decision for the committee this year. The Spartans rank 26th in the NET and 17th in Kenpom but are 9-7 with only a single Q1 win over Baylor. There’s no precedent for a team with a NET in the 20s getting left out, but the Big Ten is light on quality win opportunities this year and the Spartans will have to start winning games if they want to make the tournament.
1: Purdue, Houston, Arizona, Connecticut
2: North Carolina, Kansas, Wisconsin, Baylor
3: Tennessee, Kentucky, Dayton, San Diego State
4: Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Illinois
5: Oklahoma, Colorado State, Marquette, Creighton
6: Memphis, BYU, Utah State, St. John’s
7: Iowa State, Alabama, Nebraska, Utah
8: Ole Miss, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida Atlantic
9: Villanova, Grand Canyon, Cincinnati, Mississippi State
10: Texas Tech, Princeton, Oregon, Texas A&M
11: Seton Hall, James Madison, Northwestern, Colorado
12: (Texas/Michigan State), (Ohio State/Providence), Indiana State, Gonzaga
13: McNeese State, Charleston, Samford, Purdue Fort Wayne
14: Morehead State, UC Irvine, Liberty, Weber State
15: Akron, High Point, Quinnipiac, Vermont
16: Southern, Stetson, (Colgate/Norfolk State), (Denver/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Miami (FL), Butler, Indiana State, TCU
Next Four Out: Gonzaga, Virginia, Boise State, Wake Forest
Also Considered: New Mexico, Indiana, Florida, San Francisco, NC State, Kansas State, Syracuse, Georgia
Moving In: Northwestern, Texas
Moving Out: Miami (FL), Wake Forest
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 9
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 7
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3
American: 2
Bracketology 1/7/2024
The first full week of conference play is in the books and it has led to significant movement throughout the seed list. Many power conference teams that played lackluster non-conference schedules are facing their first real tests of the season. Some of these teams, like South Carolina and Cincinnati, have pulled off big wins to cement their place in the field. For others, like Texas and TCU, losses have taken them out of my projected bracket.
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 4
American: 2
Bracketology 12/31/2023
As the calendar turns to 2024, conference play begins in earnest. We have a bit of an interesting distribution of bids this year with only 4 ACC teams and 3 Pac-12 teams in the field. As of right now a majority of at-large bids are going to the SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 and it will be hard for other conferences to break in given how well those leagues did in non-conference play.
1: Purdue, Houston, Arizona, Kansas
2: Clemson, Marquette, Connecticut, BYU
3: Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina, Oklahoma
4: Colorado State, San Diego State, Utah, Illinois
5: Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, Auburn, Wisconsin
6: Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, New Mexico
7: James Madison, Dayton, Ohio State, Providence
8: Creighton, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Alabama
9: Texas A&M, Colorado, South Carolina, Texas
10: Nevada, Miami (FL), Villanova, Princeton
11: Nebraska, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Michigan State
12: Florida, Indiana State, (Texas Tech/Cincinnati), (Northwestern/Utah State)
13: UC Irvine, Liberty, McNeese State, Weber State
14: Samford, Akron, UNC Wilmington, Vermont
15: Purdue Fort Wayne, Morehead State, Lipscomb, Longwood
16: Colgate, Denver, (Norfolk State/Quinnipiac), (Southern/Merrimack)
First Four Out: Syracuse, Kansas State, St. John’s, Butler
Next Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Wake Forest
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 5
Mountain West: 5
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 2