College Football Picks Week 9 2022
Last week was tough, as I whiffed really badly on Purdue. Cincinnati was winning all game, but SMU got an unfortunate backdoor cover as they scored a touchdown and missed the two point conversion down 8. Syracuse covered easily and looked to have a shot at winning outright before some late penalties did them in.
Preseason: +0.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
2022 Total: -4.47 units
East Carolina @ BYU (Friday, 6 PM Central)
These are two teams whose seasons are moving in opposite directions. East Carolina’s season was looking a bit shaky after a weird loss to Navy, but they got a big over UCF last week and are looking to get back in the AAC title chase. BYU has been horrible the last few weeks, highlighted by a blowout loss to Liberty last week. I think East Carolina is the better team and should be favored here.
East Carolina +3.5 -110 (4 units)
San Diego State @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
San Diego State finished last year ranked, and while they were expected to regress last year, I don’t think anyone expected this. The Aztecs are a sub-100 team who won’t even sniff a bowl this year. Fresno State has been a bit disappointing this year as well but I don’t think the market realizes just how bad this San Diego State team is.
Fresno State -7.5 -110 (3 units)
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Coastal Carolina has had a weird year where their record is quite good but they have some close wins against bad teams. Marshall has had quite an up-and-down year themselves with a win over Notre Dame in South Bend and a loss to a mediocre Bowling Green team. I think people give too much weight to Coastal Carolina’s record, which is a bit of a sham. Marshall is the marginally better team.
Marshall -1.5 -110 (2 units)
Oregon @ California (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Oregon has been hugely impressive since their week 1 demolition at the hands of Georgia. Bo Nix and the Ducks offense looked pretty much unstoppable last week against UCLA and the Ducks have to be considered the favorites to win the Pac-12 now. Cal, meanwhile, has been even worse than predicted this year with a horrible loss to Colorado a few weeks ago being the icing on the cake.
Oregon -14.5 -110 (2 units)
Arkansas @ Auburn (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I had decently high expectations for Arkansas in the preseason but they’ve failed to meet them. The Razorbacks are headed for a 6-6 type season, which is perfectly fine for them, but not as good as the top 10 heights they reached at times last year. Auburn is 3-4 but has played a brutal schedule featuring trips to Ole Miss and Georgia. Auburn is such a mess behind the scenes and because of that I don’t think people realize the product on the field is pretty decent, just the victims of a tough schedule.
Auburn +4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 8 2022
The ranks of the undefeateds are falling quickly with Syracuse, UCLA and Ole Miss picking up their first losses on Saturday. That leaves only 6 undefeated teams, with Georgia and Tennessee facing off in two weeks, while Ohio State and Michigan will square off in Columbus the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan
Tennessee
LSU (+5)
Texas (-1)
Oregon (-1)
Illinois (-1)
Utah
Penn State (+15)
Kansas State (+8)
Mississippi State (-1)
USC (+1)
TCU (-6)
Syracuse (+1)
Oklahoma State (+11)
Kentucky (-4)
Florida State (-1)
Oregon State (+7)
UCLA (-8)
Texas Tech (+2)
Clemson (-1)
Wake Forest (+7)
Auburn (+4)
LSU was a darling of my model early in the season, and they’re back in the top 10 after a dominating win over Ole MIss. If it wasn’t for that fluky loss against Florida State to start the season, they’d be easily in the top 10 of the polls right now. I was ready to call it quits on Penn State after their putrid performance against Michigan but they surprised me with a dominating win over Minnesota. My model still hates Clemson more than anyone else I’ve seen, my model largely chalked up their win over Syracuse to penalty yardage.
Moving Up
I thought Wisconsin (62nd → 38th) was toast after their blowout loss to Illinois, but in hindsight that result speaks more about the Illini than the Badgers. Wisconsin dominated Purdue and has an interesting swing game against Maryland next. Liberty (81st → 60th) dominated BYU and would be undefeated if they had picked up a two point conversion against Wake Forest back in September. East Carolina (54th → 36th) beat UCF to pick up the best win of Scottie Montgomery’s tenure in Greenville and could be a contender in the American this year.
Moving Down
Minnesota (34th → 65th) was in the top 10 of my ratings less than a month ago, but has been in complete free fall since with blowout losses to Illinois and Penn State. BYU (60th → 85th) was whispering about the playoff in September before a three game losing skid sent them to 4-4. There may not be a team in the country having a more disappointing season than Miami (35th → 51st) who committed a whopping 8 turnovers in their blowout loss to Duke.
College Football Picks Week 8 2022
I lost a few units last week, the whole week turned on an ugly backdoor cover from Virginia Tech. I had Miami -7.5 and they were up by double digits all game before a late touchdown from the Hokies gave them the backdoor cover. I hit Tennessee ML but gave up those gains on Auburn ML and Kansas ML.
Preseason: +0.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
2022 Total: -2.20 units
Syracuse @ Clemson (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Syracuse has been one of the most surprising teams of the year for me. The Orange were just plain bad last year, going 5-7 in a weak ACC. They’ve been much better this year, as they showed last week when they posted a dominating 7 YPP at home against a shorthanded NC State. I’ve bet against Clemson a few times this year with mixed results but I still think the Tigers are pretty overvalued- their three most recent wins have all been closer than the score suggested. I think Syracuse can keep this one close.
Syracuse +13.5 -110 (3 units)
Syracuse ML +400 (1 unit)
Purdue @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
On Sunday afternoons I try to guess the week’s lines without looking at my model. I’m almost always within a few points, but I was wildly off on this game. Wisconsin is yet to beat a team in my top 100 this season and has gotten run off the field by the two top 25 teams they’ve played. Purdue has been a darling of my ratings for some time and has two close losses against good teams. I expected Purdue to be a modest favorite here and will gladly take them as an underdog.
Purdue +2.5 -110 (3 units)
Cincinnati @ SMU (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
People have forgotten about Cincinnati since their week 1 loss to Arkansas. They admittedly haven’t given much to write home about as they’ve played pretty bad teams and struggled a surprising amount with South Florida two weeks ago. I do think this line disrespects them a bit though- they are the most talented team in the G5 and the quality of their roster is far beyond SMU’s. Cincinnati is in the top tier of the AAC along with Tulane and UCF, quite a ways above SMU.
Cincinnati -3 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 7 2022
Saturday was one of the best days of college football in recent years. Tennessee’s epic win over Alabama was the obvious highlight, but even beyond that we saw great wins from Utah, TCU and Michigan State, among others. The list of undefeated teams was trimmed from 15 to 9, all of whom appear in my top 25.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan (+2)
Tennessee
Texas (-2)
Oregon (+2)
Illinois (+22)
TCU (+4)
Utah
LSU (+3)
Mississippi State (-5)
UCLA (+2)
Kentucky (+17)
USC (+2)
Purdue (-8)
Syracuse (+17)
Florida State (+1)
Ole Miss (+4)
Kansas State
Maryland (-10)
Clemson (-4)
Cincinnati (-1)
Texas Tech
Texas A&M (+2)
Tennessee jumped to #3 in the AP Poll, but stays at #5 in my ratings. My model sees the Alabama game as a coin flip that the Volunteers were slightly fortunate to win, since they were only a small underdog in my system their rating is pretty unchanged from the win. I am now all aboard the Illinois bandwagon as they absolutely destroyed a good Minnesota team. The Illini have to be considered the favorites to win the Big Ten West and will be favored in every remaining game except a trip to Ann Arbor. Syracuse vaulted into my top 25 for the first time all year after their big win over NC State. Their place is probably a bit overstated as my model doesn’t properly account for NC State’s QB injury weighing their performance down.
Moving Up
Old Dominion (114th → 81st) handed Coastal Carolina their first loss of the year in dominating fashion, putting up a terrifying 11 yards per play in a 49-21 win. Nebraska (68th → 49th) is proving to be a lot better than I feared they were, giving a good Purdue team a scare in West Lafayette. Stanford (82nd → 67th) got their first FBS win of the year on the road against Notre Dame and should get another one this week against Arizona State.
Moving Down
Coastal Carolina (66th → 95th) was undefeated all year but showed signs of trouble against Gardner-Webb. It all came crashing down for the Chanticleers in their loss to Old Dominion and they now enter the meat of the Sun Belt schedule. California (76th → 97th) lost an inexcusable game on the road against a horrible Colorado team and will now struggle to make a bowl. Washington State (35th → 50th) was not competitive in a loss to Oregon State and looks like a 6-6 type team.
College Football Picks Week 7 2022
Last week was a mixed bag as I hit on UConn and Oregon but lost on Boston College and LSU. I had some positive and negative variance- UConn forced a ton of turnovers to cover easily, but Boston College was barely outgained and probably deserved to cover.
Attentive readers will remember that in addition to the bets below, I also have some 1 unit on Utah -4 at home against USC. I made that bet in the preseason, the line is pretty much unchanged at Utah -3.5.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
2022 Total: +3.27 units
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Southern Miss is having an OK season- they handed Tulane their only loss of the year and have close losses to good teams (Liberty and Troy). Arkansas State hasn’t done much to impress me this year. Their only FBS win is against a ULM team that might be the worst in the Sun Belt. I think Southern Miss has a good shot at a bowl game this year and they can get on track with a win here.
Southern Miss -3.5 -110 (3 units)
Auburn @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
My model is very low on Ole Miss compared to the computer consensus- I have the Rebels 23rd in my ratings when they’re in the top 10 of some other systems. They haven’t really played anyone aside from an overrated Kentucky team and their per play efficiency numbers are not fantastic. It feels dangerous to bet on an Auburn team that knows their coach is fired, but the talent gap between these teams is not that big.
Auburn +15.5 -110 (2 units)
Auburn ML +500 (1 unit)
Kansas @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
This is the hardest game of the season to price. There is not much precedent in my dataset for teams that have risen as much through 6 games as Kansas or teams that have fallen as much as Oklahoma. This line probably would have been Oklahoma -27 or so in the preseason but these teams have had seasons go in completely opposite directions. My preseason priors have decayed a bit faster than Vegas’ here as I think these teams are actually pretty even now.
Kansas +7 -110 (2 units)
Kansas ML +225 (1 unit)
Miami @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 11:30 AM Central)
Both of these teams are having horrible seasons under first year coaches. Miami was being touted as a potential top 10 team in the preseason and is in some danger of missing a bowl game. Virginia Tech is one of the five worst P5 teams in the country. The talent gap between these teams is pretty immense though- Virginia Tech has not recruited at a top level in years while Miami has some real talent on the roster. I think Miami gets their season back on track with a big win here.
Miami -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Alabama @ Tennessee (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is not only the marquee game of the weekend, but the biggest Alabama/Tennessee game since the 90s. I am a buyer of the Volunteers- they have the second most explosive offense in the sport (Ohio State still takes the top prize and their skill talent is top notch. Alabama struggling with a very good Texas team is one thing, but I don’t think Texas A&M is that good and the Aggies took the Crimson Tide to the wire in Tuscaloosa. There’s uncertainty around Bryce Young’s status but the line is at 7.5 for now, I like Tennessee at that price.
Tennessee +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
Tennessee ML +250 (1 unit)
Tennessee ML/Auburn ML +2000 (0.2 units)
Tennessee ML/Kansas ML +1037 (0.2 units)
Auburn ML/Kansas ML +1850 (0.2 units)
Tennessee ML/Auburn ML/Kansas ML +6725 (0.1 units)
College Football Ratings Week 6 2022
The top 3 teams in the country keep winning, but not without incident. It never really felt like Texas A&M deserved to be in the game against Alabama, but they somehow had a chance to win on the last play. We still have 15 undefeated teams which is quite a lot for this point in the season. Only 11 of them feature on this list. In what will come as a surprise to many, Oklahoma State (#29 in my ratings) is one of the 4 that doesn’t make the cut, along with James Madison, Coastal Carolina and Syracuse.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Texas (+2)
Tennessee (+5)
Michigan (-2)
Mississippi State (+4)
Purdue (-1)
Oregon (+5)
Utah (-5)
Maryland (+4)
Minnesota
TCU (-4)
LSU (-6)
UCLA (+11)
Penn State (+1)
USC (-6)
Clemson (+6)
Florida State (+6)
Kansas State
Notre Dame (+6)
Cincinnati (-9)
Ole Miss (+6)
Texas Tech (+7)
Baylor (-4)
Texas demolished Oklahoma 49-0 and looks like one of the best teams in the country. If it were not for a fluky loss to Texas Tech (where the Longhorns were by far the better team) they would be solidly in the top 10 in the AP Poll as well. Michigan has been 4th in my ratings for the last few weeks but has gotten passed after an underwhelming performance against Indiana. The middle of the Big Ten is stronger than people think as none of Purdue, Maryland or Minnesota are ranked in the AP Poll but I think all are solid top 25 teams.
Moving Up
San Jose State (83rd → 57th) is 4-1 with their only loss being a close one on the road to Auburn. I didn’t think much of the Spartans in the preseason but they might be the favorites to win the Mountain West now. I wrote Georgia Tech (112th → 92nd) off for dead in the preseason but since firing coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets have won back to back games as underdogs. I’ve been low on Wake Forest (51st → 32nd) all year but they impressed me with a demolition of Army.
Moving Down
My model does not know what to do with Oklahoma (28th → 59th). There is really no precedent in my dataset for a team to fall from playoff contender to bad as quickly as they have in the last few weeks. In September I declared Air Force (44th → 64th) as a potential NY6 team but the Falcons have been all over the place and struggled with a horrible Navy team. I didn’t think Northwestern (101st → 118th) could fall much further, but after a disaster against Wisconsin, the Wildcats now have to be considered the worst team in the Big Ten by a large margin.
College Football Picks Week 6 2022
Last week was solid once again, led by Illinois destroying Wisconsin, covering +7 and hitting +225 on the moneyline as well. The Fighting Illini are one of the biggest surprises of the season and are up to 33rd in my ratings, their highest perch in many years.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
2022 Total: +4.23 units
Connecticut @ Florida International (Saturday, 6 PM)
This game features one of FBS’ bottom teams (UConn) against maybe the absolute worst (FIU). UConn has been a favorite against an FBS team only twice in the last five years, both against similarly inept UMass. They are nearly a touchdown favorite here. I quite like the Huskies at that price- they’ve shown major improvement this year, with a massive upset win over Fresno State last week. FIU, meanwhile, barely beat a bad FCS team (Bryant) in week 1. I think UConn will roll here.
Connecticut -4.5 -110 (4 units)
Clemson @ Boston College (Saturday, 6:30 PM)
I’ve been low on Clemson all year and bet heavily against them in the preseason. The Tigers have yet to really impress me so far this year, they needed some timely turnovers to beat NC State and they scraped past a mediocre Wake Forest team. I had written Boston College off for dead earlier in the season but they scored a shock win over Louisville last week. BC is not a good team, but they have a real quarterback in Phil Jurkovec and I think Clemson is still massively overvalued.
Boston College +20 -105 (3 units)
Boston College ML +850 (0.5 units)
Tennessee @ LSU (Saturday, 11 AM)
This is a huge game in the SEC. If Tennessee wins, they’ll stay in the top 10 and it’ll set up the biggest Tennessee/Alabama game of the century next week. I’ve been high on LSU all season though and will be betting on them here- the Tigers lost a fluky game to a good Florida State team in week 1 and beat the snot out of a top 25 Mississippi State team. Last weekend’s close shave with Auburn gives me some hesitation but I don’t think there’s a ton separating these two teams.
LSU +3.5 -110 (2 units)
Oregon @ Arizona (Saturday, 8 PM)
Arizona has been a pleasant surprise this year, they were a combined 1-16 in 2020 and 2021 and are off to a 3-2 start in 2022. They are no longer the worst team in the Pac-12, that title belongs to an absolutely horrible Colorado team. However, I think people have gotten a little ahead of themselves with the Wildcats. The talent level on their roster is still not up to par for a Power Five team. That’ll show itself in this game against an Oregon team that has elite level athletes up and down the roster.
Oregon -11.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 5 2022
It was another entertaining weekend of college football with pandemonium in the lower reaches of the AP Poll. The top few teams are some distance among the rest, but the second tier is wide open and it’ll be interesting to see which playoff contenders emerge from the pack.
Top 25
Ohio State
Georgia
Alabama
Michigan
Utah (+3)
Texas (+4)
Purdue (+5)
LSU (-3)
TCU (+24)
Tennessee (-1)
Mississippi State (+6)
Minnesota (-6)
Cincinnati (-2)
Oregon (+1)
Maryland (-2)
USC (+2)
Penn State (+2)
NC State (-4)
Oklahoma State (-3)
Kansas State
Baylor (+8)
Washington (+5)
Kentucky (+9)
Clemson (+14)
Florida State (-4)
The biggest result of the week was TCU’s blowout win over Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and leaped into the top 10 in my ratings- they play the Big 12’s two other undefeated teams (Kansas and Oklahoma State) in the next two weeks. Purdue continues to be shockingly high in my ratings and rose further after a big win over Minnesota. Cincinnati is not getting any national buzz but they remain the top Group of Five team by a large margin.
Moving Up
I had written off Boston College (102nd → 68th) for dead after losses to Rutgers and Virginia Tech but they scored a great win over Louisville this week. Duke (90th → 63rd) has been a pleasant surprise this season, I expected the Blue Devils to be horrible but after a big win over UVA they look like they could win the ACC Coastal. Connecticut (125th → 115th) got their first win over an FBS team in nearly 3 years as they beat Fresno State as a 3 touchdown underdog, and they should be favored once again this week against FIU.
Moving Down
Fresno State (50th → 79th) was a popular pick to win the Mountain West, but they’ve fallen off a cliff this year and are 1-3 without an FBS win after their shocking loss to UConn. Oklahoma (7th → 28th) has seen their defense ripped to shreds two weeks in a row, first by Adrian Martinez and Kansas State, then by Max Duggan and TCU. The Sooners are in danger of falling to 0-3 in the Big 12 if they lose to Texas this week, a game where they’ll be an underdog. Texas A&M (24th → 38th) was not competitive at all in a loss to Mississippi State and may actually be the worst team in the SEC West.
College Football Picks Week 5 202
Last week went quite well. My spread picks went 4-2 and I hit Miami (OH) ML +235 as well. The week was almost even better as I had Bowling Green +30.5 and they lost by 31, I think some people may have gotten the Falcons at +31 and pushed. I’m back in the black for the year, which I did not think was going to happen after my horrible week 1.
Astute readers may remember that in addition to the picks you see below, I also have 1 unit on NC State +10 against Clemson, I bet that line back in August and it is now +6.5.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
2022 Total: +0.09 units
Louisiana Monroe @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM)
I have a soft spot for Louisiana Monroe as I made a lot of money betting on the Warhawks in 2019. We did not learn much about them in their first 3 games as they predictably lost big to Alabama and Texas and beat Nicholls State. They got a huge win over Louisiana last week though, and I don’t see why they’re such big underdogs here. I think ULM is a very marginally better team as they have a more talented roster and have a real result this season unlike Arkansas State.
UL Monroe +7.5 -110 (3 units)
UL Monroe ML +245 (1 unit)
UTEP @ Charlotte (Saturday, 5 PM)
I’m no stranger to betting on UTEP, this will be my third game bet on the Miners this year in addition to their preseason win total. I missed out on betting on them last week which was a shame as they beat Boise State outright as a 17 point underdog. Charlotte was abysmal to start the season but has improved since getting QB Chris Reynolds back from injury. This line opened at PK and I’m kicking myself that I didn’t get that price, although I still think UTEP is a much better team and like them a lot at -3.
UTEP -3 -110 (3 units)
LSU @ Auburn (Saturday, 6 PM)
My ratings are all over LSU as the Tigers have soared to #5 despite not even sniffing the AP Poll. Other computer ratings agree as the Tigers are hanging out at or near the top 10 in most other ratings systems. Auburn, meanwhile, has been even more of a trainwreck than I expected. They got wiped off the field by Penn State and only beat Missouri through one of the stupidest finishes to a football game I’ve seen. That win may have saved HC Bryan Harsin’s job for now, but you have to imagine his time in the job is limited now. While this game is famous for strange things occurring, I think LSU will roll here.
LSU -8.5 -110 (3 units)
Liberty @ Old Dominion (Saturday, 5 PM)
This is a really interesting game between Virginia’s two G5 teams, I’m happy they scheduled each other and look forward to this developing into a rivalry. Liberty was really disappointing last year but is a missed 2 point conversion against Wake Forest away from being 4-0. Old Dominion grabbed headlines with their win over Virginia Tech in week 1, but it was very fluky and it seems it’s more the case that Virginia Tech is horrible than ODU is any good. I think Liberty should be a decent favorite here.
Liberty -1.5 -110 (3 units)
Illinois @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 11 AM)
Kansas is the biggest surprise in the Power Five, but Illinois might be second. The Fighting Illini are 2-1 and they outplayed Indiana in their loss and were the victims of some questionable refereeing. Ohio State treated Wisconsin like a MAC team last week and if I were to remove preseason priors from my ratings, Wisconsin would be a 4-8 type team. I wouldn’t have given Illinois a chance in this game in the offseason but I don’t think this line has moved enough given what we’ve learned about these teams in September.
Illinois +7 -110 (2 units)
Illinois ML +225 (1 unit)
Michigan State @ Maryland (Saturday, 2:30 PM)
It pains me to say it as a Michigan State fan, but the Spartans have been horrible this year. They were completely uncompetitive in losses to Washington and Minnesota, the final score was flattering in both cases. I’ve been high on Maryland all season and their last two weeks have been very good. They posted 8 yards per play against a good SMU team and then hung with Michigan despite a horrible special teams error to start the game. The Terps have supplanted MSU as the 4th best team in the Big Ten East.
Maryland -7 -110 (2 units)
UL Monroe ML/Illinois ML +973 (0.2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 4 2022
Week 3 saw one legitimate playoff contender lose (Oklahoma) and two more come very close to it (Clemson and USC). I still think that there’s a large gap between the top 3 teams and everyone else, most of the drama in the coming weeks will lie in the 4th through 10th area as it was last week.
Top 25
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Alabama
Michigan
LSU (+2)
Minnesota (+10)
Oklahoma (-2)
Utah
Tennessee (-3)
Texas (+10)
Cincinnati (-2)
Purdue (-2)
Maryland (+1)
NC State (-2)
Oregon (+9)
Oklahoma State (-5)
Mississippi State
USC (+16)
Penn State (-4)
Kansas State (+15)
Florida State (+5)
Arkansas (-2)
Ole Miss (-1)
Texas A&M (-11)
Oregon State (-6)
For the first time this season, we have a new #1 in my ratings as Ohio State treated Wisconsin like an FCS team in a blowout win. Minnesota is flying up the rankings after demolishing Michigan State- I believe this is the Gophers’ highest ever place in my ratings. We now have enough data that I’ve reduced the weight of my preseason ratings, no team is a bigger beneficiary of this than USC who rises into my top 25 for the first time all season.
Moving Up
The biggest week-over-week gain this season belongs to Middle Tennessee (108th → 63rd). The Blue Raiders were viewed as a middling CUSA team before they destroyed Miami in a game that was not even as close as its 16 point margin indicates. The only team to beat MTSU this year is James Madison (70th → 35th) who, like USC, benefitted a lot from de-emphasizing preseason results. The Dukes are one of only two undefeated G5 teams left in the country. Kent State (101st → 62nd) played Georgia shockingly close and opens MAC play next week as the possible conference favorites.
Moving Down
It’s one thing to lose to Ohio State, but it’s another thing to get completely vaporized like Wisconsin (27th → 71st) did. The final score of 52-21 doesn’t look horrible, but Wisconsin scored all their points in garbage time and Ohio State pulled the starters early. Boise State (49th → 82nd) looks to have their worst team in over a decade after they lost to UTEP as a 17 point favorite. Virginia Tech (76th → 98th) might be one of the worst teams in the Power Five as the Hokies got killed at home by a mediocre West Virginia team.
College Football Ratings Week 3 2022
Week 3 was not as exciting as week 2, with fewer big upsets and less movement at the top. In an interesting twist, most of the notable results were out west where some Pac-12 teams established themselves as legitimate league contenders (Washington and Oregon) while others flamed out to the point that their coach was fired (Arizona State).
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Alabama
Michigan
Oklahoma (+1)
Tennessee (+1)
LSU (+11)
Utah (+2)
Cincinnati (+2)
Purdue (+2)
Oklahoma State (+2)
NC State (-4)
Texas A&M (+1)
Maryland (+18)
Penn State (+15)
Minnesota (+3)
Mississippi State (-12)
Miami (-2)
Oregon State (-2)
Arkansas (-5)
Texas (+4)
Ole Miss (+1)
Pittsburgh (+5)
Oregon (+26)
Notre Dame (-4)
Many will be surprised to see LSU all the way up in the top 10. The Tigers are not even sniffing the AP Poll right now, but I was very impressed with how they dismantled a good Mississippi State team. I am pretty sure my model is the only thing on planet earth that considers 1-2 Purdue a top 10 team. The Boilermakers “deserve” to have around 2.5 wins as they outplayed both Penn State and Syracuse in their two losses. Maryland also rose a lot after their win over SMU. While the game was close, Maryland was the far more efficient team averaging almost 7 yards per play. Penn State is in my top 25 for the first time all year after a dominating road win against Auburn.
Moving Up
I completely wrote off Oregon (50th → 24th) after they were demolished by Georgia in Week 1. As time passes, it looks like Georgia may actually just be an NFL team in disguise as opposed to Oregon being fraudulent. Eastern Michigan (112th → 94th) pulled off one of their biggest wins in program history on the road at Arizona State and could possibly contend for the MAC championship. Washington State (54th → 39th) dropped the hammer on a bad Colorado State team and brings their 3-0 record to a matchup with Oregon this weekend.
Moving Down
South Carolina (33rd → 66th) was absolutely vaporized by Georgia. The Gamecocks have been quite disappointing so far this year and they will struggle to get back to a bowl. I was hyping up BYU (9th → 28th) as a possible playoff team a week ago and that has been stopped dead in its tracks after a blowout loss to Oregon. It is only a matter of time until Auburn (31st → 48th) joins Arizona State (26th → 43rd) in a mid-season coach firing, a loss this weekend to Missouri could do the trick.
College Football Picks Week 4 2022
I’m a bit annoyed about last week as it feels like my process far outperformed my results. Western Kentucky really bungled the ending of their game and should have won outright. Temple came very close to winning as a +625 dog, and South Florida nearly won as a 24.5 point underdog. Admittedly, I was quite wrong on BYU and Fresno State but the week went well overall.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units*
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
2022 Total: -5.35 units
*My week 1 result is actually -12.86 units, not -14.93 units as I previously reported- I found an error in my tracking spreadsheet.
Duke @ Kansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
You might’ve noticed that I now have winnings in the “preseason” line item of my bets. That’s because I bet on Kansas over 2.5 wins, and the Jayhawks have already cashed the over after a 3-0 start. I was bullish on Lance Leipold’s squad in the preseason but they have surpassed even my expectations and I think they could make it to a bowl. These teams are both a surprising 3-0 but Kansas has beaten much better teams to get here and the talent level on their roster is considerably higher than Duke’s.
Kansas -7 -110 (4 units)
Miami (OH) @ Northwestern (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Miami has been a remarkably mediocre MAC team for the last few years, consistently hanging out around the .500 mark in the last few years. Northwestern, meanwhile, is anything but mediocre. The Wildcats beat Nebraska in week 0 (a win that only looks worse as time passes) and have gotten whacked by Duke and Southern Illinois since then. Northwestern got straight up outplayed by an FCS team at home last week and I’m not convinced they’re much better than a veteran Miami team.
Miami (OH) +7.5 -110 (3 units)
Miami (OH) ML +235 (1 unit)
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Bowling Green has had a strange start to the season, losing to FCS Eastern Kentucky and then beating Marshall (who had beaten Notre Dame the previous week). The Falcons have an experienced squad that returns 18 starters from last year’s team that beat Minnesota as a 31 point underdog. Mississippi State is a good team, I think they’re a top 25 squad and will hang with Alabama and Georgia as well as most SEC teams. However, this is a pretty big number for them against a competent Bowling Green team.
Bowling Green +30.5 -110 (3 units)
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
There are not many teams in college football that have been more disappointing than Buffalo. The Bulls were viewed as a possible bowl team in the preseason with their win total at 5.5, but they are 0-3 with a loss to FCS Holy Cross. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, got a signature win on the road at Arizona State last week which led to the firing of Sun Devils HC Herm Edwards. I don’t understand this line at all, I thought these teams were similar in the preseason and EMU has been far better since then.
Eastern Michigan -6 -110 (3 units)
Northern Illinois @ Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Kentucky has risen rapidly in the polls after a win over Florida and is now ranked #8 in the AP Poll. I think this is pretty overdone and rank the Wildcats around 30th. Northern Illinois has been a very interesting team in the last year as they’ve won an exceedingly high number of close games. This one probably won’t be close, but the defending MAC champions have more talent than most G5 teams and I think Kentucky is a bit overrated.
Northern Illinois +26.5 -110 (2 units)
Indiana @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I bet against Indiana last week when they played Western Kentucky and will be doing so again here. The Hoosiers are the most fraudulent 3-0 team in the country. They got outplayed by both Illinois and Western Kentucky and could have lost to a bad Idaho team as well. Cincinnati is still the best G5 team in the country, and I expect them to roll in this game.
Cincinnati -16.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 3 2022
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -14.93 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
2022 Total: -10.56 units
Last week was a nice bounce back from week 1. I was particularly happy to hit Kansas ML +380 against West Virginia, as that’s a big help for my Kansas over 2.5 wins ticket as well.
Western Kentucky @ Indiana (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I highlighted Western Kentucky as one of my Group of Five teams to watch in my preseason preview. They’re off to a 2-0 start with wins over two truly bad teams. Indiana, meanwhile, struggled to get past an awful Idaho team last week. These two teams played at WKU last year and I was in attendance, the Hilltoppers far outplayed the Hoosiers and were very unlucky to loes. Indiana might be the worst team in the Big Ten and should not be a touchdown favorite here.
Western Kentucky +7 +100 (4 units)
Western Kentucky ML +200 (1 unit)
Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ole Miss has not been challenged in two easy wins against outmatched opponents. We also haven’t learned much about Georgia Tech as they played one FCS team and Clemson. I think that the Yellow Jackets are one of the worst teams in the Power Five and will likely be betting against them quite a bit in the coming weeks. They’re the least talented team in the ACC (aside from maybe Duke) and were absolutely horrible down the stretch last year. I think Ole Miss will win easily here.
Ole Miss -14.5 -110 (3 units)
BYU @ Oregon (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
BYU has been very impressive so far this season, destroying South Florida and beating a good Baylor team last week. The Cougars are up to 12th in the AP Poll and 9th in my ratings, and I think they have a great chance at the playoff if they win out. Oregon’s talent deficiencies were exposed in their week 1 drubbing at the hands of Georgia. Oregon’s lines are strong but their skill position talent is awful. BYU has the more experienced team and probably the more talented one as well.
BYU +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Rutgers @ Temple (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
There’s no sugarcoating it, Temple is really bad. I bet on the Owls in week 1 against Duke and they really disappointed me as they lost 30-0. In the preseason I would’ve thought this game would be a tossup, but Temple has been horrible and Rutgers has been surprisingly decent. However, I think this line is an overreaction. Rutgers does have a pulse this year but you could count on one hand the number of FBS teams that they should be a 17.5 point road favorite against. Temple is bad, but Rutgers is simply getting too many points here.
Temple +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Temple ML +625 (1 unit)
Fresno State @ USC (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
I have a lot of short exposure to USC already between their win total (under 9.5) as well as various individual game bets. I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was getting a bit worried as the Trojans have been quite impressive through two games. However, I think that might end here as Fresno State has a phenomenal QB in Jake Haener and he’s surrounded by one of the best rosters in the Group of Five. This game is going to be a track meet (the total is a whopping 74) but I think Fresno can trade punches with USC for long enough to hang in there.
Fresno State +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State ML +380 (1 unit)
South Florida @ Florida (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Florida came back down to earth last week against Kentucky, losing by 10 as a 7 point favorite. Their offense never really got out of first gear and prized QB Anthony Richardson threw a brutal pick six. I don’t doubt that the Gators have plenty of talent on the roster but they’re still pretty young and coach Billy Napier has been blunt about the fact that it’ll take some time for the pieces to come together. South Florida won’t come close to winning this game but they can hang in there enough to cover this spread.
South Florida +24.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Temple ML +2075 (0.2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Fresno State ML +1364 (0.2 units)
Temple ML/Fresno State ML +3380 (0.2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Temple ML/Fresno State ML +10514 (0.1 units)
College Football Ratings Week 2 2022
Week 2 was the most enjoyable September football Saturday I can remember. I have been hyping up the Sun Belt all offseason and it paid off yesterday as Marshall, App State and Georgia Southern all pulled off huge wins. Even when the favorites won, the games were great, from Alabama/Texas at noon to Baylor/BYU and Oregon State/Fresno State in the nightcap.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan
Mississippi State (+1)
Oklahoma (-1)
Tennessee
NC State (+2)
BYU
Utah (+2)
Cincinnati (+2)
Purdue (+7)
Oklahoma State (+2)
Texas A&M (-3)
Arkansas (-1)
Miami (+2)
Oregon State
LSU (+9)
Minnesota (+4)
UCLA
Notre Dame (-13)
Wisconsin (-6)
Ole Miss (-1)
Florida State (+2)
Texas (+23)
Michigan remains in 4th but the gap between them and the top 3 has shrunk a bit after a complete demolition of Hawai’i that sent the Rainbow Warriors to last place in my ratings. I was surprised to see Purdue in 12th, but my model sees a team that outplayed Penn State in week 1 and beat the brakes off Indiana State. The Boilermakers have an interesting matchup against a surprising Syracuse team this week. I think that the Big Ten West could come down to them and Minnesota who has demolished two bad teams so far this year.
Moving Up
It’s not surprising that Marshall (88th → 63rd) is the biggest riser in my ratings after their huge win over Notre Dame. The Thundering Herd are a bit unlike other G5 teams as they have tons of players who were good recruits and transferred to Marshall from Power Five schools. Texas (48th → 25th) is the rare team to show up in this category after a loss, but losses don’t get much “better” than a 1 point loss to Alabama. The Longhorns do need to look out though as they face a trip from a pesky UTSA team this coming weekend.
Moving Down
Notre Dame (8th → 21st) has predictably fallen quite a bit. It could be a bumpy road for the Irish as they face North Carolina and BYU away from home in their coming games. Virginia (68th → 82nd) got waxed by Illinois in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates. I don’t really know what’s going on with Coastal Carolina (81st → 96th) as they struggled to get past FCS Gardner-Webb, a far cry from their recent 10 win seasons.
College Football Ratings: Week 1 2022
In addition to my weekly picks this year, I’m also going to post my model’s ratings each week along with some commentary about them. I did this back in 2019 and 2020, but I only published my top 25. This year, in addition to publishing my top 25, I’ll also highlight which teams are rising and falling in my ratings.
Top 25
The number in parenthesis indicates a team’s ranking movement since last week.
Georgia
Alabama
Ohio State
Michigan (+3)
Oklahoma (+6)
Mississippi State (+6)
Tennessee (+1)
Notre Dame (-2)
BYU (+6)
NC State (-5)
Texas A&M (-2)
Utah (-8)
Cincinnati (+1)
Arkansas (-1)
Oklahoma State (-5)
Wisconsin
Oregon State (+3)
Miami (+10)
Purdue (+3)
UCLA (+3)
Pittsburgh
Ole Miss (+10)
Minnesota (+2)
Clemson (-7)
Arizona State (-6)
I was really impressed with Mississippi State in week 1 as they trucked a good Memphis team. Spots 4 through 30 are still very fluid in my ratings so the Bulldogs were able to rise all the way from 12th to 6th. BYU demolished South Florida and could present an interesting case for the playoff committee. The Broncos have games against Arkansas, Baylor, Notre Dame and Boise State, among others. If they do run the table they have the schedule strength to make the playoff. Oregon State had a fantastic win at home against Boise State and looks like they might be the best team in the Pac-12 North.
Moving Up
This list is heavy on teams that I bet against last week who proved me wrong. Most notable among them is Florida (60th → 38th) who beat Utah at home. I don’t have the Gators jumping up nearly as much as the AP Poll (which has them 12th) and I make them a 4 point favorite at home against Kentucky this week. Other than Georgia, I was much lower on the SEC East than the consensus this preseason and South Carolina (49th → 32nd) is another team that proved me wrong in week 1. The Gamecocks have a huge pair of games coming up with a trip to Arkansas and a visit from Georgia in the next two weeks, a split would be a great result.
I also bet against SMU (54th → 33rd) and they demolished North Texas on the road. I have the Mustangs second in the American now behind Cincinnati. James Madison (92nd → 75th) played their first game as an FBS member and absolutely pulverized Middle Tennessee. I was shocked to see Syracuse (44th → 29th) knocking on the door of my top 25. The Orange demolished Louisville as a 3.5 point home underdog, time will tell whether Syracuse is unexpectedly good, Louisville is unexpectedly bad, or both.
Moving Down
Unsurprisingly, a lot of the teams on this list lost to teams in the moving up section. Georgia State (30th → 50th), Louisville (27th → 46th) and North Texas (65th → 83rd) all fit the bill. More interesting to me is Iowa (38th → 54th) who beat South Dakota State in a horrific 7-3 game. I was already low on Iowa’s offense but even I was surprised by how awful it was. The Hawkeyes host Iowa State this week and I make them a 6 point favorite, you may not be able to set a total low enough on that game.
College Football Picks Week 2
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -14.93 units
Week 1 got off to a nice start on Friday as Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech in the week’s only G5 over P5 upset. It was all downhill from there though as Saturday was an 0-6 bloodbath with North Texas, Texas State and Rice all nowhere close to covering. On to the next week.
New Mexico State @ UTEP (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
This is a big rivalry game as UTEP is much closer to New Mexico State than it is to any of the FBS schools in Texas. Unfortunately, the Miners just missed covering last week against Oklahoma and are off to an 0-2 start. However, I think they’ll rebound here as the gap between these two teams is absolutely massive. UTEP has a real quarterback and a few decent recruits on the roster, while New Mexico State has a washed up coach in Jerry Kill and an army of crappy junior college players. These teams were even years ago but UTEP has pulled way ahead.
UTEP -14 (3 units)
North Carolina @ Georgia State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
North Carolina beat Appalachian State 63-61 last weekend in what was the clear best game of the weekend. The Tar Heels are going to put up points against people all year but DC Gene Chizik has his work cut out for him on the other end of the field. I was disappointed in Georgia State last week as they dropped a winnable game to South Carolina. However, I think they’ll be able to move the ball against UNC and should cover in another track meet.
Georgia State +7.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia State ML +240 (1 unit)
Kansas @ West Virginia (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
Kansas made quick work of Tennessee Tech last weekend. That might not sound like much, but for a program that has lost as many FCS games as the Jayhawks in recent years, it is a big step up. It would be another big step up for them to knock off a conference opponent this weekend in West Virginia. The Mountaineers nearly beat Pitt in week 1 but some late interceptions from QB JT Daniels doomed them. As I noted in my season preview I think the gap between Kansas and the rest of the Big 12 has closed a bit and fancy their chances in this matchup.
Kansas +13 -110 (2 units)
Kansas ML +380 (1 unit)
Boise State @ New Mexico (Friday, 8 PM Central)
The standard at Boise State is extremely high, with conference titles and occasional BCS bowls the norm. Andy Avalos is in his second year as head coach and people are starting to ask questions of him as the Broncos went 7-5 last year and got blown out by Oregon State in week 1. I share some of these doubts, but this line is still a bit ridiculous. Boise is the most talented team in the Mountain West by a large margin and New Mexico might not even have a single 3 star on the roster. Even a Broncos team that is far from their past heights should take care of the Lobos.
Boise State -16.5 -110 (2 units)
Boston College @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
This is going to be the rare case where I bet against a team one week and bet on them the next. Both of these teams were extreme disappointments in week 1, as Boston College lost as a big favorite to Rutgers and Virginia Tech lost to Old Dominion. The underlying fundamentals of Virginia Tech’s loss were pretty weird though, they had a botched field goal returned for a TD among other things. Boston College, meanwhile, just got straight up beat at home by a bad Rutgers team. I think this is an overreaction to Virginia Tech’s loss and think they bounce back here.
Virginia Tech -3 -110 (2 units)
Ohio @ Penn State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Ohio had their worst year in a decade in 2021 but looked much improved last week in a win over Florida Atlantic. Sean Clifford was up and down for Penn State agianst Purdue, throwing a backbreaking pick 6 before responding with a heroic TD drive. Penn State is around the 30th best team in the country, they’re healthy favorites here but Ohio is a plucky enough team that this line is around a touchdown too fat in favor of PSU.
Ohio +24.5 -110 (1 unit)
Kansas ML/Georgia State ML +1532 (0.2 units)
College Football Picks Week 1
Week 0: -1.5 units
Last week was just the appetizer, the main course of college football begins this weekend. Notre Dame @ Ohio State is the headline matchup but there are loads of interesting games across the country this weekend.
Utah @ Florida (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
This is another pick that runs in tandem with my preseason bets. I bet Utah to win the Pac-12 at +240 and also bet Florida under 7 wins. Utah solidly belongs in the second tier of teams this year, far behind Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia but on par with the likes of Michigan, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. Florida has a great QB in Anthony Richardson but the rest of their skill talent is quite a bit worse than Utah’s which is a bit shocking given the Gators’ usual recruiting standard.
Utah -2.5 -115 (4 units)
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion (Friday, 6 PM Central)
When these teams met here four years ago, Virginia Tech was ranked 13th in the country and was a 27.5 point favorite. Shockingly, Old Dominion pulled the upset in what was their biggest win in program history. I’m pretty high on the Monarchs this year and fancy their chances of pulling another upset here. Old Dominion finished last year in the top 100 of my ratings for the first time in five years and brings back 17 starters from that team. Virginia Tech had their worst team in decades last year. I think first year HC Brent Pry will get it rolling in Blacksburg at some point but this is a tricky road game against a team that can’t be underestimated.
Old Dominion +7.5 -110 (3 units)
Old Dominion ML +230 (1 unit)
Illinois @ Indiana (Friday, 7 PM Central)
The Big Ten has scheduled two conference matchups for week 1, and I think both this one and the other (Purdue/Penn State) will be very informative in how the conference shakes out. Illinois took care of business in week 0 against an alright team in Wyoming. Indiana went 2-10 last year and brings in an entirely new offense. I think Indiana is actually the worst team in the Big Ten this year and think Illinois should be a small favorite in this one.
Illinois +3 -110 (3 units)
SMU @ North Texas (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I’m normally able to predict where lines are going to open for most games pretty well, but I was way off on this one. SMU and North Texas are both pegged as 7 win teams in my model, pretty in line with the market consensus. SMU certainly plays in a tougher conference (although they’ll both be in the American starting next year) but I was floored when I saw they were a double digit favorite. North Texas was quite solid in week 0 against UTEP and this line should be a bit under a touchdown.
North Texas +11.5 -110 (2 units)
North Texas ML +310 (1 unit)
Texas State @ Nevada (Saturday, 4:30 PM Central)
These are two teams that have stretched the fabric of college football as we know it. Texas State has the strangest roster in FBS, as they have completely abandoned recruiting high school players and have built an entire team out of the transfer portal. Meanwhile, Nevada has no one left on their roster after coach Jay Norvell left for conference rival Colorado State and took every player of note with him. The Wolfpack have set record lows for returning experience for a team in my model’s history. Texas State is a weird team, but a known quantity. I don’t think people realize how low the talent level on Nevada’s roster is, there are maybe two dozen FCS teams with better players.
Texas State +1 -110 (3 units)
Georgia State @ South Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Georgia State is one of my sleeper teams in the Group of Five this year as I highlighted in my G5 preview. The Panthers return an above average amount of talent from a team that finished last year in the 50s in my ratings. South Carolina will clearly be much improved with new QB Spencer Rattler transferring in from Oklahoma, but I expect this game to play out like Georgia State’s opener last year where they nearly knocked off Auburn on the road.
Georgia State +12.5 -105 (2 units)
Georgia State ML +370 (1 unit)
Temple @ Duke (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)
This game is going to be completely unwatchable, as both Temple and Duke will be the worst team in their respective conferences this year. However, unwatchable doesn’t mean lack of gambling opportunity, and I like a play on Temple here. Last year’s Duke team was exceptionally terrible and this year’s team returns very little experience. Longtime HC David Cutcliffe clearly saw the writing on the wall and stepped down in the offseason. Temple has a real QB in former Georgia Bulldog D’Wan Mathis and actually beat a team with a pulse last year, something Duke was not able to do.
Temple +7 -110 (1 unit)
Temple ML +220 (1 unit)
UTEP @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I was high on UTEP in the preseason as I bet them over 5.5 wins and also put a speculative wager on them to win Conference USA at 20/1 odds. They were a bit disappointing in losing to North Texas in week 0 but I am high on the Mean Green as well and nearly bet their win total over. Oklahoma checks in at #11 in my preseason ratings, but UTEP has enough of a pulse that they should be able to keep this within a few touchdowns.
UTEP +30.5 -110 (2 units)
Rice @ USC (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
If you read my preseason win totals, this won’t surprise you as I am very low on USC. I don’t really have an opinion on Rice, I am aligned with the market in seeing them as a 3-9 team that is about 10th from bottom in FBS. However, I am looking to put on short USC exposure everywhere I can.
Rice +32.5 -110 (1 unit)
Western Michigan @ Michigan State (Friday, 6 PM Central)
Western Michigan has not made the MAC title game since their magical 2016 season when Corey Davis was playing for the Broncos. It’s a bit unlucky for WMU, who have consistently been one of the MAC’s top teams during that time. They might have the most talented roster in the MAC and they open the year 82nd in my ratings. As a Michigan State fan I can acknowledge that the Spartans were very lucky to win 11 games last year and their underlying fundamentals were of an 8 win team. I’m a bit high on WMU and a bit low on MSU so I like a play on the Broncos here.
Western Michigan +23 -110 (1 unit)
Just for fun I’m going to be parlaying my moneyline underdog plays once again this season. None of these worked out last year, but I would’ve hit a juicy parlay or two back in 2019 and 2020 if I was playing all my ML dogs like this back then.
Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML +1451 (0.2 units)
Old Dominion ML/North Texas ML +1253 (0.2 units)
Georgia State ML/North Texas ML +1827 (0.2 units)
Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML/North Texas ML +6259 (0.1 units)
Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML/North Texas ML/Temple ML +20249 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 0
College football season kicks off this weekend with a small appetizer of games. The most notable game is Nebraska facing off against Northwestern in Ireland, but there’s a handful of other teams in action as well. Week 1 is over Labor Day weekend and features a full 80+ FBS games.
Vanderbilt @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
Hawai’i is an incredibly difficult team to forecast this year. HC Todd Graham resigned after a flurry of scrutiny, headlined by his own son transferring out of the program. They return staggeringly little production from last year’s team. However, I am going to be betting on them here as I think people don’t understand how poor the talent on Vanderbilt’s roster is. The Commodores were dreadful last year, winning two games by a combined five points against two of the sport’s worst teams. I would’ve made this game Hawai’i -12 at the end of last year, and while there’s no doubt this Rainbow Warriors team is much worse, the line shouldn’t be moving 3 touchdowns.
Hawaii +8 -110 (1 unit)
Hawaii ML +260 (0.5 units)
2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 3
In the second part of my preseason bets series, I finished up my preview of the Group of Five conferences. Today, in the final installment of the series, I’ll take a look at my favorite bets in the Pac-12 and the SEC.
Pac-12
USC Under 9.5 wins -120 (5 units)
This is my favorite bet in the preseason and will likely be my favorite pick all year. USC has been lost in the wilderness for a few years now, culminating in a 4-8 season last year where they finished 76th in my ratings. Optimism abounds this year in Los Angeles though, as the Trojans bring in HC Lincoln Riley and Heisman candidate QB Caleb Williams from Oklahoma, along with a plethora of other transfers on offense. They will inarguably have a top 10 offense in the sport but the defense leaves a lot to be desired. The D was horrendous last year, allowing 34 points to a horrible Arizona team and getting shredded for 62 points by UCLA. 9.5 wins implies USC is around the 10th best team in the sport, and I think they belong around 30 spots below that, there is simply no precedent for a single year transfer-driven turnaround like what they’re trying.
Notre Dame +3 -110 @ USC (1 unit), Utah -4 -110 vs. USC (2 units), UCLA +3.5 -110 vs. USC (1 unit)
The only reason I’m not playing the USC win total for more units is because I’m also betting against them in all these individual games. I put an extra unit on the Utah pick as I am a bit bullish on the Utes this year, while I’m more neutral on Notre Dame and UCLA. These figure to be USC’s 3 toughest games of the year, hence why they’re the 3 with a lookahead line listed.
Oregon State Over 6.5 wins +115 (1 unit)
Oregon State has been through a rough few years, but appears to be turning a corner under 5th year HC Jonathan Smith. The Beavers went 7-6 last year, beating Pac-12 champion Utah as well as defeating USC in Los Angeles for the first time since 1960. OSU starts their season with a fascinating pair of games against MWC favorites Boise State and Fresno State which will set the tone for their season. The Pac-12 slate is actually easier than the non-conference schedule as every other team in the Pac-12 North besides Oregon is in disarray right now. I think the Beavers will flirt with their first ever Pac-12 title game appearance.
Utah to win the Pac-12 +240 (2 units)
Utah had a fantastic year in 2021, overcoming a 1-2 start to win the Pac-12 and making it to the Rose Bowl where they narrowly lost to Ohio State. The Utes finished the year an impressive 4th in my ratings, behind just Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State. They start 2022 4th in my ratings as well behind the same three teams. QB Cam Rising is experienced and they have the best line play in the conference by some distance. Utah and USC are in a dead heat for first in the Pac-12 title odds, and given how low I am on USC and how much I like Utah it makes sense to put some cash on the Utes.
SEC
Florida Under 7 wins +105 (2 units)
Florida let go of Dan Mullen after a 6-7 season last year that was punctuated by a horrific blowout loss to South Carolina. Billy Napier steps in as the new coach, and while I’m quite bullish on him in the long term, even he has admitted that this will not be a quick rebuild in Gainesville. QB Anthony Richardson is undoubtedly a stud but outside of him, the Gators were hit hard in the transfer portal. Their running backs and receivers in particular are far from their usual standard. I’ve seen Florida pegged for third in the SEC East elsewhere, I have them tied with Missouri for fifth.
Florida State PK vs. Florida (2 units), Georgia -15.5 -110 vs. Florida (1 unit)
I’m also putting on some short Florida exposure through these lookahead lines. I bet on Florida State’s win total over already so my opinion on the Gators/Seminoles clash should be clear. Georgia is also so far ahead of the rest of the SEC East that I think they should have no trouble with a 5-7 or 6-6 type Gators team.
2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 2
In the first part of my preseason bets series I took a look at the American, ACC and the Big 12. This will be part two of three in the series as I go through the remaining Group of Five leagues.
Conference USA
UTEP over 5.5 wins -125 (5 units), UTEP to win Conference USA +2000 (0.5 units)
This is going to be one of my biggest plays of the preseason, I absolutely love UTEP this year. The Miners are historically one of the worst programs in FBS, but unlike the other perennial bottom feeders they have good fan support. Dana Dimel has done an admirable job turning this team from a complete joke into a bowl team. They went 7-6 last season for their best year since 2014, and return 15 starters from that team including QB Gavin Hardison and the best front seven in the league. The schedule is a dream as well as they play the 3 worst teams in FBS and a few others outside the top 100. I don’t understand this line at all and have seen others picking the over on UTEP as well.
FIU Under 3 wins +105 (2 units)
I highlighted FIU in my article previewing the Group of Five as the most dysfunctional team in all of FBS. I don’t think people understand how bad things have gotten for the Panthers, I rate this team as the worst in FBS by a healthy margin. Former head coach Butch Davis torched this place on the way out the door, blasting the university for not providing enough financial support to the program. Last year’s team went 1-11 and the coaching change led to a wave of transfers as only 10 starters return. The saving grace here is the easiest schedule in FBS, but I still struggle to see this team getting to 3 wins.
Western Kentucky to win CUSA +450 (1 unit)
Western Kentucky was one of the most exciting teams in football last year, led by now Patriots QB Bailey Zappe. The Hilltoppers have a lot to replace with Zappe, his OC (Zach Kittley, off to Texas Tech) and his best WR (Jerreth Sterns, off to the Buccaneers) all gone. They were the best team in CUSA last year even though UTSA grabbed the headlines with an 11-0 start. The good news is that WKU brings in some transfers again and the defense should be the best in the league. The other top teams in the league (UAB, UTSA) are either going through big coaching changes or have even more talent to replace so I like a flier on WKU at +450.
MAC
Ball State Under 5.5 wins -150 (2 units)
Ball State shocked the country in 2020, winning the MAC and finishing ranked for the first time in program history. There were a lot of calls for HC Mike Neu’s job before that year but he now looks entrenched here after that dream season. Last year Ball State fell down to earth. They were quite a bit worse than their 6-7 record would indicate as they finished 114th in my ratings. They rank near the bottom of FBS in returning experience and have a lot of uncertainty at the QB position so I forecast them at the bottom of the MAC West. Pounce on this line if you can get it at 5.5, as I’ve seen it offered down to 4.5 at some books.
Bowling Green Over 4 wins -145 (1 unit)
Bowling Green hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2015 although current HC Scot Loeffler’s 3 years as head coach have been much better than the disastrous 2016-2018 tenure of Mike Jinks. The Falcons went 4-8 last year, beating Minnesota as a 31 point underdog and showing real signs of life for the first time in years. They bring back 18 starters from last year’s team and I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a bowl. I’m upset with this one as I missed a big opportunity here. This line was at 3.5 a few weeks ago and it would have been a multi-unit play there but it’s just 1 unit at this number.
Sun Belt
Marshall Under 7 wins +120 (3 units)
Marshall makes the leap from Conference USA to the Sun Belt this year, and will play in the new Sun Belt East, the most exciting division in the Group of Five. I’ve seen a few people picking the Thundering Herd to win their division and I really do not see it. The step up in competition from CUSA to the Sun Belt is serious and they play Notre Dame and Louisiana from outside the division as well. They bring back only 11 starters from last year’s 7-6 team, and while the recruiting classes are quite good, the schedule is much harder than last year and the talent level is similar. Marshall will be a force in the Sun Belt soon but I don’t think it’ll be this year.