2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 1
For those who are newer to my blog, college football is the only sport that I bet, and I make my bets with the aid of a model that I have developed over the years. I went into some detail on a previous version of my model on my old blog back in 2017 if you’re interested in the methodology. I have made some changes since then, most notably in how I consume box score data, but the fundamental tenets of my model are largely the same.
I have so many picks to make in the preseason that I am dividing them into multiple posts. In this post I’ll cover my picks from the American, ACC and Big 12.
American
UCF Under 8.5 Wins +125 (3 units)
I have had some good success betting against UCF in recent years, most notably when I had Tulsa ML +850 when the Golden Hurricanes beat UCF in 2020. The Knights went 9-4 last year but were quite a bit worse than their record, squeaking out wins over bad USF and Tulane teams and going 5-8 ATS. The strength of this team is their skill talent where they are loaded with Power Five athletes like QB John Rhys Plumlee. However they do not have the athletes on the lines to compete with Cincinnati and Houston. The middle of the American is strong enough that I find it unlikely this team can go 9-3 or better.
Cincinnati to win The American +190 (1 unit)
Cincinnati had their best season in program history last year, going 13-1 and making the playoff. While the Bearcats will undeniably take a step back this year, I still fancy their chances to win the American. They lose QB Desmond RIdder and CB Sauce Gardner, along with a few other NFL players. However, Luke Fickell has been recruiting at a higher level than any other G5 program and there is lots of talent on the roster. Most notably, all five offensive line starters return from last year. I think people underestimate how big the dropoff is between Cincinnati and the rest of the league and fancy their chances at a threepeat.
ACC
Clemson under 10.5 wins -130 (3 units)
Clemson suffered through their worst season in almost a decade last year going 10-3 and failing to win the ACC. The big question around the program is whether this was just a blip or the canary in the coal mine for the future of the Tigers. I don’t have a strong opinion on that question, but I do think Clemson is very far from being a national title contender this year. QB DJ Uiagalelei was absolutely brutal and I figure he will be replaced by Cade Klubnik this year. More worryingly, the skill talent is not up to its usual level. While the front seven is the best in the country, the rest of the roster falls far behind Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. The only reason I am not playing this bigger is because I have more picks fading Clemson coming right up.
NC State +10 -110 @ Clemson (1 unit) and Notre Dame +2.5 -110 vs. Clemson (1 unit)
I’m grouping these two plays together as the thesis behind them is the same. This is actually the first time I’ve played these advanced lines before, but I quite like them and am pleasantly surprised to see them listed at -110 juice. I’m trying to get as much short exposure to Clemson as I can, and these are the only other opportunities to do that outside the win total. I don’t have any strong opinions on Notre Dame (I see them as a 9-3 team as most do) but I do like NC State a bit as you’ll see below.
Florida State over 6.5 wins -135 (1 unit)
This is a big change for me, as Florida State under 7.5 wins was my biggest pick of 2019. That paid off for me as the 2019 Seminoles were such a mess that they got Willie Taggart fired after only two years in Tallahassee. Things have changed, and a few years of decent recruiting has built up the talent on this roster. This is a pleasant change of pace as the ‘Noles were fielding the worst offensive line in the league a few years ago, an embarrassment for a program of their stature. I’m overall quite low on the rest of the ACC compared to the market which makes a lot of games in conference play against the likes of Wake Forest and Louisville look more winnable.
NC State to win the ACC +750 (0.5 units)
Clemson is the prohibitive favorite to win the ACC at -165. Given how low I am on the Tigers, it makes sense to bet on one of the other ACC contenders and my favorite out of them is NC State. The Wolfpack return QB Devin Leary from last year’s team along with 10 starters on defense. They likely will have to beat Clemson on the road to win the league, but they beat them last year and if they can do it again the rest of the ACC Atlantic is weaker than it was last year.
Big 12
Kansas over 2.5 wins -135 (2 units)
Kansas abruptly fired Les Miles in spring 2021 and made a great hire by bringing in former Buffalo HC Lance Leipold to replace him. While the Jayhawks were only 2-10 last year, they showed real signs of life, beating Texas as a 31 point underdog and playing Oklahoma and TCU close as huge underdogs. Leipold has been given a lot of leash by the athletic department to build this team his way and I think it will start to pay off as they return 17 starters. I favor Kansas against Tennessee Tech and Duke and think they pick off a Big 12 team or two somewhere.
Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 +550 (1 unit), Baylor to win the Big 12 +650 (1 unit)
The Big 12 has been dominated by Oklahoma for the last decade, and they had won 6 straight conference titles going into last year. However, the Sooners lost to both of these teams last year and instead, the Bears and Pokes faced off in the Big 12 title game where Baylor won on a thrilling goal line stand. These two squads are #3 and #4 in the Big 12 title odds, and I am betting on both of them as I think the gap between them and the top 2 (Oklahoma and Texas) is relatively small. Oklahoma State has the best quarterback in the league in Spencer Sanders, while Baylor boasts a top 5 defense in the country. This is just a bet on overall Big 12 parity as I think the top 4 teams in the league are pretty interchangeable this year.
2022 College Football Preview: 5 Teams Most Likely to Break into the Playoff
We are now 8 years into the playoff era in college football. Only 13 teams have made it into the playoff during that time, while Alabama and Clemson have dominated with 7 and 6 appearances respectively. Last year, Michigan and Cincinnati joined the club of playoff teams. Today I’ll be taking a look at the 5 teams who have never been to the playoff who are most likely to follow in their footsteps and make their first appearance this season.
It has been 6 years since a Pac-12 team made the playoff but I think Utah has a decent chance of breaking that streak this year. The Utes had a rough start to their 2021 campaign with losses to BYU and San Diego State. However, they were fantastic down the stretch, beating Oregon twice, winning the Pac-12 and taking Ohio State to the wire in the Rose Bowl. The Utes finished last year #4 in my ratings and return QB Cam Rising as well as the best line play in the conference. Utah could be favored in every game, with the key matchups being trips to Florida and Oregon and a home game against USC. This is the clear best team in the Pac-12 and a 12-1 campaign should be enough to get them into the playoff.
There’s not a team in college football that perplexes me more than NC State. The Wolfpack have all the ingredients of a winner- they play in a big city in a big football crazy state. However, they’ve never even gone to a BCS/NY6 bowl, much less the playoff. Last year’s team got over the hump and beat Clemson, but they were not able to win the ACC Atlantic after losses to Miami and Wake Forest. The Pack bring back veteran QB Devin Leary and a walloping 17 starters from the 2021 squad. The path to the playoff involves beating Clemson again, winning the ACC and losing no more than 1 game. It’s not likely, but they’ll be favored in every game except Clemson so it’s certainly possible.
Arguably no team has gotten more hype this offseason than Texas A&M. The Aggies continue to stack up huge recruiting classes and of course beat Alabama last year. My ratings love the talent on the Aggies’ roster but the schedule is absolutely brutal. They’ll be a double digit underdog in Tuscaloosa, but could be favored in every other game. A&M thought they deserved a playoff spot in 2020 after losing to Alabama and winning every other game. If they can pull that off this year, I think that they’ll get selected.
Wisconsin has been on the doorstep of the playoff multiple times, most recently in 2017 where they went 12-0 before falling in the Big Ten title game to Ohio State. My ratings absolutely love the Badgers’ offensive line, which could be the best in the country. Combined with returning QB Graham Mertz and a strong running game, the Badgers will have the second best offense in the Big Ten behind Ohio State. They do have to travel to Columbus in September, but like Texas A&M, this is a situation where one loss to an elite team and wins everywhere else should be enough to make the playoff.
I would argue that no team has had a more disappointing 21st century than Tennessee. After a dominant 1990s that featured a national title and multiple other top 10 finishes, it has been over 20 years since the Volunteers finished in the top 10. However, with Florida now rebuilding, the Vols look like the clear 2nd best team in the SEC East. The schedule is not easy as they play both Alabama and Georgia, as well as a fascinating non-conference game against Pitt. However, the skill talent here is phenomenal and my ratings say this is the 4th best team in the SEC behind Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M.
2022 College Football Preview: 2022’s 10 Most Intriguing Group of Five Teams
With college football season now only five weeks away, I want to start my season preview series by looking at 10 of the most interesting teams from the Group of Five. For the uninitiated, this moniker refers to FBS’ 5 conferences that lack a major bowl tie-in— the American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, Conference USA and the MAC. Even within this basket of leagues there is significant variety, with CUSA hanging onto big-time football by a thread while the Sun Belt is a deep and fascinating league.
American
Houston has always had ambitions to be a Power Five program. Their wish will be granted next year when they, along with Cincinnati and UCF, leave this league for the Big 12. They certainly have the roster of a major conference team, especially in the front seven. Their season starts with a fascinating road trip against UTSA and Texas Tech. If they get through those two games, they should be favored in every remaining game as they avoid Cincinnati and UCF. Houston looks more like a 9-3 team to me than the fringe playoff contender some are calling them, but this is a team on the rise that could find themselves in a New Year’s Day bowl.
I have always had a soft spot for East Carolina. As I was coming of age as a football fan, they were routinely picking off ACC teams like Virginia Tech and NC State. Unfortunately, the 2010s were less kind to this program than the 2000s were, punctuated by the senseless firing of Ruffin McNeil which led to Lincoln Riley leaving the program. Things are now looking up once again for the Pirates as they return 15 starters from last year’s 7-5 team. The American will be going under big changes in the coming years, and a good season this year will set ECU up to be the top dog of the new league.
Sun Belt
There is a saying in political circles that “demography is destiny”, as politicians always have to think about what the future of their electorate looks like. This holds equally true in college football, and you’d be hard pressed to find a better example than Georgia State. The Panthers represent a rapidly growing university in a rapidly growing state, and thus have found quick success since starting their football program in 2010. Georgia State beat Tennessee in 2019 and had Auburn on the ropes in Jordan-Hare last year. They return 15 starters including senior QB Darren Graniger, and the fruits of years of recruiting Atlanta have borne out as there is talent up and down the roster. The season opens with a pair of games against South Carolina and North Carolina, and I expect GSU to come out of it with at least a split. They are set up for their best team in program history and I project them at 8-4.
While also in the state of Georgia, rural Georgia Southern is a world away from Georgia State’s downtown Atlanta campus. The Eagles have a proud history with 6 national championships at the FCS level, and moved up to FBS ball in 2014. They are abandoning their usual triple option attack this year after firing coach Chad Lunsford, hiring Clay Helton from USC who will bring in a more traditional offense. I have no clue what to expect from the Eagles this year- Los Angeles to Statesboro, GA is a massive culture change for Coach Helton and moving away from the option is not trivial from a personnel perspective. My ratings call for a 5-7 season but anything from 2 to 8 wins wouldn’t shock me as this program gets a complete facelift.
Mountain West
Air Force has been the best team in college football the last few years that no one talks about, they are 24-8 in the last 3 years. Like the other service academies, the Falcons run a triple option offense due to academy weight restrictions for their offensive linemen. I’m bullish on Air Force this year because they’re experienced for a service academy team and return a great option QB in Haaziq Daniels and 4 offensive linemen. I project Air Force for a 9-3 season and think they have a good chance at their first conference title since 1998.
I don’t think there are many football programs that have been more poorly managed this millennium than Colorado State. The potential of this job is obvious- similar to Georgia State, the Rams play in a rapidly growing metro area with plenty of football talent around. They shelled out for a new stadium a few years ago and opened up the checkbook once again to poach new head coach Jay Norvell from rival Nevada this past offseason. CSU was unlucky to go 3-9 last year and Norvell brings tons of players from Nevada including his QB. I think the Rams look like a 6-6 team this year but as conference realignment continues the pressure is on this program to prove they can compete at the highest level.
Conference USA
There may not have been a more fun team in college football last year than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers imported QB Bailey Zappe, WR Jerreth Stearns and OC Zach Kittley from FCS Houston Baptist and rode the trio to a 9-5 season and a CUSA East title. I got to see them in person against Indiana in September and was very impressed with Zappe in particular. This is the last year of Conference USA existing in its current iteration before 6 teams depart for the American in 2023 and some new teams arrive. WKU is by far the strongest program of the teams remaining in the league, and if they want to become the power of the new CUSA this is the year for them to assert that status. I project them for a 9-4 season, similar to last year.
There is not an FBS program who has experienced a bigger fall from grace recently than Florida International. The Panthers moved up to FBS alongside archrival Florida Atlantic over a decade ago, and have now fallen far behind. FIU is 1-16 in the last two years and finished last year as the second worst team in the country in my metrics. There is not much hope for improvement this year as I project them to be the worst team in the country by a decent margin, with 1-11 being the most likely scenario. I’m intrigued by FIU because it’s not clear to me where this program goes next- the recent past has been so bad that there’s an argument for them to drop football. At the same time, they are right in the heart of Miami so it is easy to see their long term potential if managed properly.
MAC
The MAC has the most parity of any FBS conference in the country. However, if I had to pick the one team with the potential to dominate the league over the 2020s, it would be Toledo. The Rockets always recruit near the top of the league and have more money than most of their competitors. It shows on this year’s roster, as they will have better line play than the bottom half of the Big Ten this year. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s been 4 years since Toledo won the MAC West, but they are my clear pick to win the league this year.
On the other end of the MAC is Akron. The Zips unquestionably have the least history of any team in the league, having never been ranked. They went 3-27 under former HC Tom Arth, with their only FBS wins being a pair over Bowling Green. However, there is reason for optimism as Akron replaced Arth with former Mississippi State HC Joe Moorhead. Moorhead has a proven track record as a play caller and got a raw deal to get fired from Starkville after 2 seasons. I only project Akron as a 3-9 team this year, but the arrow is undoubtedly pointing up for the future.
College Football Bowl Picks
Win Totals: -12.84 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
Week 11: +0.82 units
Week 12: -1.18 units
Week 13: -5.09 units
End of Season Props: -2.5 units
Season Total: -34.66 units
My worst season in the last few years is thankfully coming to a close. I just have two picks for bowl season- I’m potentially interested in betting on Pitt in the Peach Bowl as well, although the line has been taken down everywhere awaiting the status of Pitt’s star QB Kenny Pickett.
Old Dominion vs. Tulsa (Myrtle Beach Bowl, December 20th 1:30 PM Central)
Old Dominion’s season looked completely lost as they opened 1-6 with their only win over lowly Hampton. However, their schedule was quite frontloaded and they went 5-0 down the stretch to qualify for their second bowl in program history. Tulsa is a little lucky to be 6-6 with close wins over bad teams like Arkansas State and South Florida. I like a small play on the Monarchs.
Old Dominion +9.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ball State vs. Georgia State (Camellia Bowl, December 25th 1:30 PM Central)
Georgia State has had a very impressive season, winning on the road against 10-2 Coastal Carolina and taking Auburn to the wire as well. Ball State has been a disappointment after last year’s MAC title and is one of the weaker bowl teams, I like Georgia State for a unit.
Georgia State -4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 13
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
Week 11: +0.82 units
Week 12: -1.18 units
End of Season Props: 0 units
Season Total: -13.97 units
I had my first negative week in a month last week, mainly caused by South Alabama failing to cover against Tennessee. The Vols look like easily the second best team in the SEC East and are now in the top 20 of my ratings.
Kentucky @ Louisville
I’ve been betting against the SEC East all year and I’m going to continue to do so here. Louisville has put together quite a nice season, and have actually cracked the top 25 of my ratings for the first time in a few years. Kentucky was nowhere near as good as their top 10 ranking earlier in the year and their defense has slipped a lot in the last month.
Louisville -3 -110 (2 units)
Iowa @ Nebraska
2021 Nebraska is going to go down as one of the strangest college football seasons in recent memory. The Cornhuskers are 3-7 and in the top 25 of my ratings, along with many other predictive metrics. I’m still pretty bearish on Iowa as a lot of their early success was fueled by turnovers, I think Nebraska is a slightly better team and should be favored here.
Nebraska +1.5 -110 (2 units)
Penn State @ Michigan State
Penn State’s season has pretty rapidly fallen off the rails, highlighted by their 9OT loss to Illinois. They now have no shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, but they’re still the 12th or so best team in college football. The same cannot be said for Michigan State, who got completely exposed by Ohio State and should be 7-4, not 9-2. My model likes betting against teams who just got blown out and I’m doing so here.
Penn State -1 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame @ Stanford
Stanford has had a strange season where they knocked off Oregon in overtime and have done nothing of consequence since. Notre Dame has moved up to 8th in my ratings after a dominant win over Georgia Tech. Notre Dame has shown they can blow out bad teams and I expect them to do so here.
Notre Dame -19 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ Oregon
I’ve been pretty high on Oregon State all season, they rose up to the top 15 in my ratings back in late October. The predictive metrics have been low on Oregon all year and last week we saw why when they got waxed by Utah. These teams are pretty close to even, and Oregon State can actually win the Pac-12 North if they win this game and Washington wins the Apple Cup.
Oregon State +7 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 12
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
Week 11: +0.82 units
End of Season Props: 0 units
Season Total: -13.97 units
I notched my third winning week in a row thanks to Arizona State covering. I hope you got ASU at -4 like I did, if you had -5 or -6 it was a pretty horrific loss as Washington scored a garbage time TD down by 11 points as time expired.
South Alabama @ Tennessee
South Alabama has had a solid season under second year coach Kane Wommack, at 5-5 they’re one win away from their first bowl game in 5 years. Tennessee is also 5-5 and clearly the second best team in the SEC East. I think Tennessee is a little overrated based on beating one average team (Kentucky) and two pretty bad ones (Missouri and South Carolina) and should be favored by about a TD less than they are here.
South Alabama +27.5 -110 (2 units)
Purdue @ Northwestern
This game is actually going to be played at Wrigley Field, a few miles south of Northwestern’s usual stadium in Evanston. Despite having a former 5 star QB on the roster in Hunter Johnson, the Wildcats’ offense has spun out of control and they haven’t scored more than 14 points in their last 4 games. The Wildcats have a solid defense but Purdue has a top 10 passing game in the country and will roll over them.
Purdue -11 -110 ( unit)
Illinois @ Iowa
Few teams have had a stranger season than Iowa. I was quite high on the Hawkeyes in the preseason (I bet on them to win the Big Ten at +900) but things fell apart in a hurry when their good turnover luck disappeared. Illinois still harbors a faint chance at a bowl and their offense has improved enough under Michigan transfer Brandon Peters that I like their chances in what figures to be a low scoring affair (the total is a paltry 38.5).
Illinois +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arizona @ Washington State
Arizona looked like the worst team in the Power Five for the first half of the season but has been much improved in the last few weeks. They beat Cal in a really ugly game and hung with USC and Utah, who are both much more talented than them. Washington State has had a decent season considering the circumstances but Arizona is closer to the pack in the Pac-12 than people realize.
Arizona +14.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 11
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
End of Season Props: 0 units
Season Total: -14.79 units
Last week was solid once again, with Tennessee, Purdue and North Texas all covering. I’ve clawed back quite a bit from my horrendous weeks 2 and 3 and am now down only 15 units on the year.
Arizona State @ Washington
This was pegged as a big game in the preseason as many people thought these were the two teams that had the best chance of challenging Oregon for the Pac-12. They’ve since disappointed and fallen out of the rankings, but I think Arizona State is much better. The Sun Devils lost to BYU and Utah, who are both in my top 25, and had a very fluky loss to Washington State. Washington is incapable of throwing the ball downfield and ASU should roll here.
Arizona State -4 -110 (2 units)
USC @ California
Cal has had a very frustrating season, highlighted by a loss to Arizona last week. However, the Bears were without a quarter of their team (including starting QB Chase Garbers) due to COVID protocols, all of whom should be back here. Cal has been very unlucky in close games this year and deserves to be over .500. USC has gone off the rails and I think they should be a very slight dog here.
California +3 -110 (1 unit)
Tulsa @ Tulane
Both these teams have had strange seasons where they have played good teams close but really struggled against some weaker teams. Tulsa is the slightly better team but they got quite lucky to beat Memphis and USF in back to back games. Tulane certainly deserves to be better than 1-8 and I think they have a good shot at a second win here.
Tulane +3.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 10
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Season Total: -16.47 units
A horrendous backdoor cover for Clemson who returned a fumble for a touchdown as time expired, causing us to push Florida State +10. Other than that, another solid week with Mississippi State and Wisconsin covering easily.
Tennessee @ Kentucky
I am betting against Kentucky once again here. The Wildcats are being propped up in the polls by their win against Florida. The Wildcats still had a very shaky September with close wins against Chattanooga, Missouri and South Carolina and I think that all 7 teams in the SEC West are better than them. Tennessee has found a serviceable quarterback in Hendon Hooker and should make a bowl game. I’m missing the best number here as this opened at Kentucky -5 but there’s still good value here.
Tennessee +3 -115 (2 units)
Michigan State @ Purdue
Every year there’s one or two teams in the country who have a massive gap between their true strength as measured by predictive metrics and their ranking in the polls. Michigan State epitomizes that, they are extremely lucky to be 8-0 (6-2 would be pretty fair) and have won tons of close games. I think these teams are actually pretty close to even, Purdue’s offense has shown some good stuff in October and this is easily their best team since 2018. The public is going to be all over Michigan State here but I like Purdue, it is a shame I missed this line when it opened at 3.
Purdue +2.5 -105 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech @ Miami
Miami has had a ton of close games this season and could easily be either 2-6 or 6-2. They’ve underperformed their preseason ranking by quite a bit, but still have lots to play for with Manny Diaz’s job in serious jeopardy and the ACC Coastal title still in play. Georgia Tech has had their best season since moving away from Paul Johnson’s flexbone offense but the talent gap between them and Miami is immense.
Miami -9 -110 (1 unit)
North Texas @ Southern Mississippi
I believe that I have bet on North Texas games (both for and against) more than anyone else this season. This is also a situation where the team is playing for their coach’s job, Seth Littrell very nearly got the Kansas State job a few years ago but is now a few losses away from being out of a job. However, they should be able to take care of business against a Southern Miss team that is yet to win an FBS game this year.
North Texas -5.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 9
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Season Total: -18.19 units
The end of Fresno State/Nevada was unfortunate, Fresno was up 8 and Nevada got a late TD but missed the two point conversion, costing me on Fresno -3.5. I also was very wrong on UAB/Rice, but made up for it in Pitt/Clemson.
Florida State @ Clemson
This will be the third week in a row I’m betting against Clemson (2-0 so far) although this pick is almost as much pro-FSU as anti-Clemson. I was as big a hater of Florida State as anyone else preseason and I will likely cash my under season win total on the ‘Noles. They have been much improved in the last few games though, their offensive line was a complete joke at the beginning of the season and is now a bit better. Their close game with Notre Dame in week 1 has gotten better with age as well. This line should definitely be single digits.
Florida State +10 -115 (2 units)
Kentucky @ Mississippi State
One thing I’ve been harping on all year is that the SEC East is much worse than people think it is. I’ve been betting against Missouri (which has worked great, they’re 0-7 ATS) and South Carolina (worked less great) all year but Kentucky is another team that is overpriced. Mississippi State is a top 25 caliber squad. Kentucky had three very questionable September games against Missouri, Chattanooga and South Carolina that people have wiped from their memory, but my model hasn’t forgotten.
Mississippi State +1 -110 (2 units)
Iowa @ Wisconsin
This is a massive game in the Big Ten West race, Wisconsin is very much in contention for the division if they win this, and it’s Iowa’s division to lose if they win. The total is also currently 37, the lowest Power Five over/under I can remember seeing. The public forgot about Wisconsin after their 1-3 start but they have been very solid since, blowing out Illinois and Purdue. Their defense and run game are both top 10 nationally. Iowa’s early season success was propelled by unsustainable turnover luck and I think they’ll struggle to score in what figures to be a rockfight.
Wisconsin -3.5 -110 (1 unit)
UNLV @ Nevada
UNLV has not won a game since they beat Nevada in Reno on Thanksgiving weekend 2019. It’s been a pretty unfortunate run for the Rebels who are 0-5 in one score games this year, including close shaves with good UTSA and Fresno State teams. They definitely deserve to have won a game or two by now. I am still lower on Nevada than the consensus, their QB play is obviously phenomenal but the rest of the offense is not really there.
UNLV +20 -110 (1 unit)
I also like to keep an eye on futures throughout the year, normally there is not much of interest. I am intrigued by Ohio State’s national championship odds though. They have pulled almost even with Georgia in my ratings and are the clear favorites to win the Big Ten. It is hard for me to square the market for OSU to make the playoff (Yes -155, No +135) with these national title odds, they would be close to a pick’em against Alabama, no more than 4 point underdogs against Georgia and significant favorites over anyone else.
Ohio State to win National Championship +550 (2 units)
Speaking of OSU’s, I think that Oregon State is one of the more underpriced teams in the country. The Pac-12 North will come down to their end of year rivalry game with Oregon, where I think they’d only be around 7.5 point underdogs. To win the Pac-12, they just need to go 3-1 in their 4 other games and then beat a mediocre Pac-12 South champion. There’s some small value in them to win the conference at 9/1 odds.
Oregon State to win Pac-12 +900 (0.5 units)
College Football Picks Week 8
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Season Total: -18.01 units
Last week was solid once again. My moneyline picks are not performing great this year, I nearly hit Syracuse ML +450 but they fell victim to some poor game management down the stretch against Clemson.
Clemson @ Pittsburgh (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
This is the biggest game of the year in the ACC, nearly all computer ratings think these are the top two teams in the conference. I agree, although I think Pitt is substantially better- they had a fluky loss to Western Michigan, but their win over Tennessee looks better and better and they have one of the top passing games in the country. Clemson’s defense will be the toughest that Pitt has faced all year, but I think this line still weighs preseason priors too heavily.
Pittsburgh -3 -110 (2 units)
Nevada @ Fresno State (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)
Fresno State got a brief moment in the spotlight in September when they knocked off UCLA. They’ve had some hiccups since, barely beating a bad UNLV team. Nevada is led by QB Carson Strong who I think will be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft this spring. However, Nevada’s last few results are a bit misleading, they played pretty even with Boise State and got lucky to win by double digits. I think Fresno should be closer to a TD favorite.
Fresno State -3.5 -110 (1 unit)
Rice @ UAB (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
These teams are both among the six Conference USA schools who announced this week they will be moving to the AAC in a few years. However, their football programs are in very different spots right now. I was dead wrong about Rice, I had them over 5.5 wins in the preseason and they’ve been a disaster. UAB still has one of the top defenses in college football and has already shut out both Jacksonville State and Southern Miss, both of whom are probably better than Rice. I like UAB as a heavy favorite here, Rice will struggle to score double digits.
UAB -23.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 7
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Season Total: -19.86 units
Last week was great as I hit all four picks. I got pretty lucky to win North Texas +19, they were down three scores for most of the game before covering in garbage time. I was probably due for some luck given how the rest of the season has been so far, though.
Texas A&M @ Missouri (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
Texas A&M pulled off the win of the season last week against Alabama and is actually back in the top ten of my ratings. My dislike for Missouri is well-documented: I have bet against the Tigers three times this year (against Central Michigan, Boston College and North Texas) and they have failed to cover all three times. A&M has run hot and cold so far this season, but I am pretty shocked that they are only a single digit favorite here.
Texas A&M -9 -110 (3 units)
Clemson @ Syracuse (Friday, 6:00 PM Central)
We’ve now reached the point of the year where preseason ratings have been completely flushed from my model. No team was hurt more by this than Clemson, who now falls just outside my top 25. Admittedly, the Tigers have played 2 of the ACC’s stronger teams in Boston College and NC State, but they still have done very little all season. Syracuse is much stronger than their record suggests, they deserved to beat Wake Forest last week. They also beat Liberty at home already, who is around as good as Clemson is.
Syracuse +14 -110 (2 units)
Syracuse ML +450 (1 unit)
Alabama @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)
Alabama fell to #3 in my ratings (behind Georgia and Ohio State) after their loss to Texas A&M last weekend. Mississippi State has had a weird 3-2 start to the season where they have won their two toughest games (NC State and Texas A&M) and struggled in their three easier games. Still, those wins carry enough credit that I have the Bulldogs just inside my top 25. Alabama showed their first sign of vulnerability last week and I think they could struggle a bit with Mississippi State.
Mississippi State +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Mississippi State ML +600 (0.5 units)
Marshall @ North Texas (Friday, 6:00 PM Central)
North Texas is receiving the very rare honor of me betting on them one week and betting against them the next week. They are still a mid to low tier CUSA team playing one of the best teams in the conference. Marshall had a strange loss to MTSU a few weeks ago, but I liked what I saw from them against Applachian State. They remain my co-favorites to win the league alongside UTSA and UAB, and I think they should be at least two touchdown favorites here.
Marshall -11 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse ML/Mississippi State ML +3645 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 6
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Season Total: -25.31 units
A bit of an annoying week with an unfortunate backdoor cover from Kansas State and a close miss on Troy. On to the next week.
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
I don’t think people appreciate just how good Coastal Carolina is. They have covered every game this year other than Buffalo and have a legitimate case as a top 10 team after how good last year’s squad was. Arkansas State got killed by a Georgia Southern team that just fired their head coach and is careening towards the bottom ten. Coastal’s high powered offense will roll here.
Coastal Carolina -19 -110 (2 units)
TCU @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech is a really fraudulent 4-1. They beat West Virginia on the road last week but their run game was really inefficient and their yards per play were way worse than WVU. Texas got everything they wanted against the Red Raiders the week prior as well. TCU is probably the fifth best team in the Big 12 behind Texas, Iowa State and the Oklahoma schools and this line is on the wrong side of 3.
TCU -1.5 -110 (2 units)
North Texas @ Missouri
I’ve bet against Missouri twice this year (against Central Michigan and Boston College) and won both. The Tigers got absolutely obliterated last week as Tennessee tallied 7.5 yards per carry on 59 rushing attempts. North Texas hasn’t been great this year but there are only a dozen or so FBS teams who Missouri should be three touchdown favorites against.
North Texas +19 -110 (1 unit)
Wake Forest @ Syracuse (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Wake Forest is 5-0 and ranked in the top 20 for the first time in a while. They got lucky to beat Louisville last week, allowing a mediocre Cardinals offense to put up 7.5 yards per play. Wake is nowhere near one of the top 25 teams in the country and I think their undefeated record may be leading to them getting a bit too much credit.
Syracuse +6.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 5
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Season Total: -20.22 units
I had a nice recovery last week to claw back some of the losses from the previous two weeks. As we head into conference play, I’ll most likely be betting fewer games each week.
Troy @ South Carolina (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
South Carolina pulled off a nice win against East Carolina in week 2 but has been very poor since then. They got predictably rocked by Georgia two weeks ago, and then were dismantled by Kentucky last week. The final score doesn’t do the game justice, they barely cleared 4 yards per play against an average Kentucky team. Troy lost to ULM as a 24 point favorite last week but outgained the Warhawks, and they looked good before that.
Troy +7 -110 (2 units)
Troy ML +220 (1 unit)
Oklahoma @ Kansas State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I won a lot of money on this game last year as I had Kansas State +28 and Kansas State ML +1500 for my biggest single game win of the year. This year, however, I am switching my tune and going with the Sooners. I still think Oklahoma’s offense is solid, Spencer Rattler’s underlying statistics remain solid even if the big plays have disappeared. K-State got wrecked by Oklahoma State last week, their run game was horrible as they kept running ineffectively on 1st and 10 leading to obvious passing downs. People forget the Wildcats barely snuck by Southern Illinois, I like Oklahoma to run up the score here.
Oklahoma -10.5 -110 (2 units)
Washington @ Oregon State (Saturday, 8:00 PM Central)
Few teams have been bigger surprises this year than Oregon State. Their offense is borderline top 10 and was electric last week against USC, notching 5 consecutive touchdown drives. I am still not sold on Washington and won betting against them last week when they played Cal. Oregon State is a team to monitor this year and if they win this game they’ll probably crack the top 25 in my ratings for the first time in nearly a decade.
Oregon State -2.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ohio State @ Rutgers (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I was bullish on Rutgers in the preseason and it has paid off as they are putting together their best year since their inaugural Big Ten season in 2014. They went on the road to Michigan last week and could’ve won if not for 3 missed fourth downs and a missed field goal. Ohio State’s defense has been questionable and the early game with Minnesota looks much worse after the Golden Gophers laid an egg against Bowling Green. Rutgers will keep this competitive.
Rutgers +15 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 4
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Season Total: -25.11 units
Another horrible week. At this point it would be a minor miracle to get back to flat on the season especially as the unit count goes down over the course of the season.
Iowa State @ Baylor (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
My model is a lot higher on Iowa State than the consensus. Their game at Iowa was very fluky, their defense actually held up quite well but the game was undone by four turnovers in their own territory including a fumble returned for a touchdown. The Cyclones’ underlying metrics are strong and I fancy them for a trip to the Big 12 title game. Baylor has played no one of note so far this year, we have yet to learn much about them.
Iowa State -7 -110 (3 units)
Missouri @ Boston College (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
I was absolutely gobsmacked when I saw this line. Boston College is a solid team with a good quarterback in Phil Jurkovec. They have yet to be challenged this season but both sides of the ball have impressed me and they are up to the mid-40s in my ratings. Missouri is not very good and struggled to get past Central Michigan in week 1, as a whole I am just very down on the SEC East. BC is a better team and should be a small favorite here.
Boston College +1.5 -110 (3 units)
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)
North Texas has had a slow start to the season on paper, but it’s not as bad as it seems as they were quite competitive with SMU before the game got away from them late. Louisiana Tech is being propped up by a close loss at Mississippi State in week 1 that was pretty fluky, they struggled to get past a very average Southeast Louisiana team in week 2. I like the Mean Green and the points.
North Texas +11 -110 (2 units)
North Texas ML +340 (0.5 units)
Rutgers @ Michigan (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been betting against Michigan all season and will continue to do so here. This bet is more pro-Rutgers than anti-Michigan, I have been quite impressed with the Scarlet Knights so far this year and think they will probably end up going to their first bowl games since 2014 this year. Rutgers’ defense has been solid and is around the Big Ten median. Michigan still needs to show me more in the passing game before I am buying them as a top 10 or 15 team.
Rutgers +20.5 -110 (2 units)
Rutgers ML +800 (0.5 units)
UCLA @ Stanford (Saturday, 5:00 PM Central)
UCLA was getting a lot of hype early in the season, but the wind came out of their sails after they lost at home to Fresno State last week. The Bruins had 81% postgame win expectancy in that loss so I am not reading too much into it. Stanford does not have the kind of athletes UCLA does, I think their win over USC was more USC self-destructing than Stanford showing much. UCLA should be at least a touchdown favorite here.
UCLA -4.5 -110 (2 units)
California @ Washington (Saturday, 8:30 PM Central)
I am extremely bullish on Cal compared to everyone else. They are 1-2 with two losses to unranked teams so they are not getting discussed at all. However, their EPA/play was higher than their opponents’ in both the Nevada and TCU losses, and both those teams are easily in the top 50. I am not sold on Washington’s offense even after an impressive performance against Arkansas State last week.
California +7.5 -110 (1 unit)
North Texas ML/Rutgers ML +3580 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 3
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Season Total: -6.84 units
Last week was a complete disaster, there’s no other way to spin it. BYU and Air Force covered which saved me from a total wipeout. Some of the losses (Army, East Carolina) were close. Others (Buffalo, Georgia State) were not. On to the next week.
Northwestern @ Duke (Saturday, 3:00 PM Central)
This is the third matchup in as many weeks between a team I bet the over on in the preseason and a team I bet the under on. Thus, it should be no surprise that I like Northwestern here. Duke lost to Charlotte as a six point favorite in week one and came out of the gate pretty slow against NC A&T last week before winning comfortably. Northwestern is very inexperienced and not as good as I thought they’d be, but their roster is infinitely more talented than the smoking crater that is Duke’s roster.
Northwestern -3 -110 (3 units)
Central Michigan @ LSU (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I was on Central Michigan as a 14 point dog at Missouri in week one, they outgained the Tigers and had a legitimate shot to win outright. The Chippewas remain underrated and are now my pick to win the MAC. LSU’s defense was horrendous last year and looked just as bad when UCLA threw for 260 yards on only 16 attempts in week 1. Jim McElwain has brought a lot of legitimate Power Five talent to CMU’s roster and they are capable of giving LSU a game.
Central Michigan +19.5 -110 (3 units)
Central Michigan ML +800 (1 unit)
Florida International @ Texas Tech (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)
I was absolutely floored when I saw this line. Texas Tech is horrible- they needed a goal line stand last weekend to beat Stephen F. Austin as a 31 point home favorite. SFA is not even a good FCS team- they have not made the FCS playoffs since 2014. Florida International is around the 20th worst team in FBS, they’re not good but they at least have a pulse. Few coaching seats in the Power Five are as hot as Matt Wells’ is at Texas Tech right now, and with how poor their offense is you can count on two hands the number of FBS teams they should be 20 point favorites over.
Florida International +20 -110 (3 units)
Florida International ML +850 (1 unit)
Tulane @ Ole Miss (Saturday, 7:00 PM Central)
This figures to be an absolutely brilliant game of football, it has one of the highest totals of the weekend at 76. Both these teams are going to light up the scoreboard all year- we saw this in week 1 when Tulane gave Oklahoma a real run for their money as a 31 point dog. My model thinks the Green Wave had an actual chance to win that game and rates Tulane as an AAC championship contender. Ole Miss is a borderline top 25 team but I think Tulane can keep up in what will surely be a track meet.
Tulane +14 -110 (2 units)
Tulane ML +450 (1 unit)
Northern Illinois @ Michigan (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
I have been low on Michigan all year and still have them lower than pretty much any other model. My system does not really know how to evaluate the Wolverines, starting quarterback Cade McNamara has attempted only 26 passes through two games. Northern Illinois was a dumpster fire last year but has really impressed me in both games so far in 2021. They pulled one of the biggest upsets of the year at Georgia Tech in week one and went toe to toe with a Wyoming team I love in week two. Michigan will win outright but NIU can keep it within a few scores.
Northern Illinois +27.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas (Saturday, 3:00 PM Central)
Arkansas is coming off their biggest win in five years and is now ranked in the AP Poll. The Razorbacks are better than I thought they’d be, but I’m pumping the breaks on calling them a top 25 team. Georgia Southern is not up to their usual standard this year and a poor season could lead to some calls for Chad Lunsford’s head. Still, I think this line should be a bit south of twenty and there are few harder teams in FBS to prep for than GSU given their unique flexbone offense.
Georgia Southern +23.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Southern ML +1100 (0.5 units)
Tulsa @ Ohio State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Tulsa has had a weird season with a fluke loss to FCS power UC Davis (postgame win expectancy 96%) and a close loss to Oklahoma State. They got really unlucky to lose the Davis game and I think it has made people too bearish on them. Ohio State’s defense has been thoroughly exposed so far this season and even a weaker Tulsa offense can poke some holes in them.
Tulsa +24.5 -110 (1 unit)
Central Michigan ML/Tulane ML +4660 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Florida International ML +7550 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Georgia Southern ML +10100 (0.1 units)
Tulane ML/Florida International ML +4940 (0.1 units)
Tulane ML/Georgia Southern ML +6620 (0.1 units)
Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +10700 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Tulane ML/Florida International ML +42740 (0.02 units)
Central Michigan ML/Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +57020 (0.02 units)
Tulane ML/Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +60380 (0.02 units)
Central Michigan ML/Tulane ML/Florida International ML/Georgia Southern ML +513980 (0.02 units)
College Football Picks Week 2
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Season Total: +7.9 units
I’m pretty pleased with how week 1 went, I bet 37.6 units and finished up 10.4 units. Encouragingly, I had numerous picks that were slam dunk winners (Marshall -2.5, Tulane +31.5, Fresno State +20.5) and only one pick that missed by a lot (Western Michigan +17). I do think I got a little unlucky with Rice +19.5, they were winning in the mid third quarter and then Arkansas piled it on late to cover.
I’d be very surprised if there’s another week this year where I bet as many units as I did last week, over the course of the season everyone’s pricing converges to each other and the opportunities lessen. Like last week, a lot of my picks this week are going to be betting on underdogs from the G5 conferences on the road against power conference foes. You also might notice in the next few weeks that my model is often more “sticky” than the consensus— I tend to hold onto my priors early in the season more strongly than most.
South Carolina @ East Carolina (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
I’ve had this game circled on my calendar since August as one I knew I wanted to bet. I bet South Carolina under 3.5 wins and East Carolina over 5 wins in the preseason so it should be obvious which side I like here. South Carolina is one of the worst teams in the Power Five— they return very little from a horrendous 2020 squad and their quarterback came to Columbia as a graduate assistant, only to be moved onto the playing field. ECU did have a tough time with Appalachian State last week but the Mountaineers are a fringe top 25 team. I’m not getting the best price here as this opened South Carolina -2.5 but I still like the Pirates for a sizable play.
East Carolina -2 -110 (4 units)
Buffalo @ Nebraska (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I am a lot higher on Buffalo than pretty much everyone else right now. They lost the best coach in program history in the spring when Lance Leipold took the Kansas job and it seems everyone wrote them off. I find that people overrate these kinds of events, some players left with him, but the defense is quite solid and the Bulls were roughly the 30th best team in the sport last year. Nebraska got a bit unlucky to lose the opener to Illinois but was shaky early against Fordham and is no more than the 70th best team in the country. Buffalo has a decent shot to win this game outright.
Buffalo +13.5 -110 (3 units)
Buffalo ML +425 (1 unit)
Utah @ BYU (Saturday, 9:15 PM Central)
I don’t think college football fans outside the west understand how big a deal this rivalry is, these teams absolutely hate each other and this game is often a proxy for religious vs. secular society in Utah. I am going to be betting on BYU early and often this year, they were top 10 quality last year and will certainly be worse without Zach Wilson but are still a top 40 team. Utah is appearing in the last few spots of a lot of top 25 ballots, but I think that is a more appropriate place for BYU, not the Utes.
BYU +7 -110 (3 units)
BYU ML +230 (1 unit)
Western Kentucky @ Army (Saturday, 10:30 AM Central)
Most of the time when I’m betting on a game, I have some idea that it’ll be a game I’m interested in before I look at the lines. That is not the case here- I was pretty shocked to see this 6.5, I expected it to be in the double digits for sure. WKU is one of the least experienced teams in the G5 and is about the 20th worst team in FBS. Army was one of the biggest surprises of week 1, demolishing Georgia State as an underdog. WKU’s rush defense is horrendous and Army’s flexbone attack is going to run all over them this week.
Army -6.5 -110 (2 units)
Ball State @ Penn State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ball State is a really hard team to price this year. They were arguably the biggest surprise of the 2020 season, coming out of nowhere to win the MAC and finished ranked for the first time in program history. They rate a solid 85% in my returning experience metric, although they looked awful last week against a bad Western Illinois team. Penn State did not look great themselves against Wisconsin and pulled off one of the most improbable wins of the weekend (post game win expectancy of 12%). I am not a believer in Penn State after the ugliest “good” win I’ve seen in a while and like Ball State and the points here.
Ball State +22 -110 (2 units)
Ball State ML +950 (0.5 units)
Georgia State @ North Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Both of these teams were big disappointments last week, Georgia State got waxed by Army while North Carolina lost their slim playoff hopes with a loss to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. I did put a unit on Georgia State over 5 wins in the preseason and think they’re a top half team in the Sun Belt. North Carolina has a great QB in Sam Howell but the O-Line looks atrocious and they are replacing a ton of skill talent that went off to the NFL. I don’t think they have the firepower to blow out Georgia State.
Georgia State +25.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia State ML +1200 (0.5 units)
UAB @ Georgia (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
No team did more for their playoff case in week 1 than Georgia, stifling the Clemson offense in one of the best defensive performances I’ve ever seen. UAB is also a very defense-heavy team though, boasting one of the twenty best defenses in the country. I don’t think the Blazers have much of a shot to win outright, but this figures to be a complete rockfight (the total is in the high 40s) and I struggle to see Georgia really blowing them out of the water.
UAB +26.5 -110 (2 units)
Houston @ Rice (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
This is another battle between a team I bet the over on in the preseason and a team I bet the under on. I feel pretty good about both bets after week 1- Houston jumped out to an early lead against Texas Tech and then competely fell apart, losing by 17 at home. Rice unfortunately failed to cover against Arkansas, but was competitve for three quarters as a 19 point underdog. I think that the Owls have a decent shot to win this outright.
Rice +8 -110 (2 units)
Rice ML +280 (1 unit)
Air Force @ Navy (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Like BYU/Utah, most people do not realize how intense this rivalry is. The Army/Navy rivalry is well-documented, but this matchup seems to be much less cordial than that one. One common theme you’ll see in my bets in the next few weeks is that I hate the bottom few teams of the AAC- I bet against Navy and Temple last week and think the trio of Navy/Temple/USF are miles worse than the rest of the conference. Air Force should roll here.
Air Force -6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Buffalo ML/Ball State ML (0.1 units)
Buffalo ML/Georgia State ML (0.1 units)
BYU ML/Ball State ML (0.1 units)
BYU ML/Georgia State ML (0.1 units)
Rice ML/Ball State ML (0.1 units)
Rice ML/Georgia State ML (0.1 units)
Buffalo ML/BYU ML/Rice ML (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 1
The season starts in earnest this week with nearly every FBS team in action. Week 1 is always the most active week of the year for my picks as there’s plenty of discrepancies between my model and the rest of the market to iron out.
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Season Total: -2.5 units
I’m betting on more underdogs than favorites this week and likely will be for the next month or so. As I discussed a few weeks ago in my preseason picks, college football teams are incredibly experienced this year and the experience is not distributed evenly across the sport. Teams from smaller conferences are overall much more likely to be returning large sections of last year’s roster than power conference teams. The gap between the top few teams and everyone else is still very large, but the gap between say, team number 25 and team number 75 is a decent bit smaller than it is most years.
Duke @ Charlotte (Friday 6:00 PM Central)
Duke under 3.5 wins was one of my favorite bets in the preseason so it should be no surprise which side I like here. The Blue Devils were one of the worst teams in the Power Five at 2-9 and rank at the bottom of the ACC in returning experience. Meanwhile, Charlotte has put together their two best years in their short history in the last two seasons. Their recruiting rankings are higher than you’d expect for a program of their caliber, and there are some legitimately talented skill position players on the roster. Duke did win this matchup in a blowout last year, but that was by far their best game of the season. I think these teams are pretty evenly matched and think the 49ers have a good shot at winning outright.
Charlotte +6.5 -110 (4 units)
Charlotte ML +200 (2 units)
Rice @ Arkansas (Saturday 1:00 PM Central)
This is one of a few games this year featuring a team whom I bet the over on preseason against a team I bet the under on, I believe South Carolina/East Carolina next week is the only other such game on the schedule. Arkansas’ 3-7 record last year was a lot of smoke and mirrors, they were outgained in two of their three wins. The Razorbacks also have a messy situation at quarterback with no experience on the roster and no obvious starter. Rice is solid on both sides of the ball and is capable of giving Arkansas a game.
Rice +19.5 -110 (4 units)
Rice ML +800 (1 unit)
Marshall @ Navy (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)
This is an interesting matchup where the team from the worse conference is a road favorite against the team from a better conference, it is these two teams’ first ever meeting. Marshall is in a weird spot with coach Doc Holladay getting fired after winning CUSA Coach of the Year last year in his 11th season with the team. He managed to retain most of the roster though, so I am not concerned. Navy is very inexperienced, which is pretty typical for a service academy. Most notably they return only 19 starts on the offensive line, a major issue for a team that runs the ball at least 80% of the time. I like the Thundering Herd here.
Marshall -2.5 -110 (4 units)
Arizona vs. BYU (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
BYU posted their best season in thirty years last year, finishing just inside the top ten of my ratings and sending QB Zach Wilson off to the NFL. Obviously I expect a lot of regression from the Cougars, but I still think they are one of the more underpriced teams in the sport. Arizona is a complete mess and rivals fellow basketball schools Kansas and Duke for being the worst team in a major conference. They went 0-5 last year, did not come close to covering any of their last four games and dropped the finale to rival Arizona State 70-7. They bring in a hodgepodge of transfer quarterbacks, none of whom inspire confidence. I think BYU wins this in a rout.
BYU -12.5 -110 (4 units)
Florida Atlantic @ Florida (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Florida Atlantic is one of the most experienced teams in FBS, returning almost every contributor of note from last year. They are also the most talented team in CUSA by a long distance, they have around a dozen former Power Five players on the roster, led by former Miami quarterback N’Kosi Perry. Florida’s offense is due for some severe regression with Kyle Trask, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts off to the NFL. It’s difficult for me to see this new UF offense putting up enough points to really blow FAU out of the water, I like the Owls and the points.
Florida Atlantic +23.5 -110 (3 units)
Florida Atlantic ML +1000 (0.5 units)
Central Michigan @ Missouri (Saturday, 3:00 PM Central)
This is another example of an extremely experienced Group of Five team playing a less experienced Power Five team on the road. CMU returns all eleven starters on offense from last year’s team that was better than their 3-3 record indicated. My ratings hate the SEC East and rank all seven teams lower than most, that includes Missouri. The Tigers are alright but I struggle to see them as a top 50 team, which means they should not be two touchdown favorites against one of the best teams in the MAC.
Central Michigan +14.5 -110 (3 units)
Central Michigan ML +500 (0.5 units)
Baylor @ Texas State (Saturday, 6:00 PM Central)
Baylor is going to be one of the weaker teams in the Big 12 this year. They were better than last year’s 2-7 record indicates, but have a tumultuous QB situation to contend with. Texas State was a complete dumpster fire three years ago but Jake Spavital has turned the Bobcats around and they are now a respectable outfit that could go bowling this year. Once again, the gap between the bottom of the P5 and the middle of the G5 is smaller than most people think this year and I like Texas State.
Texas State +14 -110 (3 units)
Texas State ML +425 (0.5 units)
Tulane @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
This game was moved from New Orleans to Norman because of Hurricane Ida. Oklahoma is a bonafide national championship contender who opens the season #3 in my rankings, behind just Alabama and Clemson. Tulane finished last year around 50th in my system and has some good players returning including a strong O-Line, which is important given their run-heavy offense. The Green Wave keep the ball on the ground enough that even the lightning-quick Sooners will have a tough time beating them by 30.
Tulane +31.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State @ Oregon (Saturday, 1:00 PM Central)
Fresno State absolutely demolished UConn last week, in a game they perhaps deserved to win by more than 45 points. That result probably says more about UConn (over 2 wins is not looking as nice as it did a few weeks ago) than it does about Fresno State, but the Bulldogs are still a clear contender in the Mountain West. I bet Oregon under in the preseason and think they’re much closer to the pack in the Pac-12 than people realize.
Fresno State +20.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State ML +850 (0.25 units)
Kent State @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:00 PM Central)
NFL draft geeks will be familiar with Kent State QB Dustin Crum who is a potential mid-round pick this coming April. The Golden Flashes are not afraid to throw the deep ball which makes them a high variance team capable of surprising a team or two this season. Texas A&M has to replace longtime starter Kellen Mond and has a few other holes to fill on offense as well.
Kent State +28.5 -110 (1 unit)
Western Michigan @ Michigan (Saturday, 11:00 AM Central)
Michigan under was one of my favorite bets in the preseason, and I’ll likely be betting against the Wolverines somewhat often in September. I sound like a broken record now, but Western Michigan is an experienced squad that many have picked to win the MAC. I disagree (I think Ball State are favorites to repeat as conference champions) but the Broncos are too good to be getting 17 points in Ann Arbor.
Western Michigan +17 -110 (1 unit)
Temple @ Rutgers (Thursday, 5:30 PM Central)
I think people underestimate how bad the bottom of the AAC is. I am betting against Navy this week, and am betting against Temple as well. The Owls really struggled last year, going 1-6 and losing their last 5 by double digits. They do bring in Georgia transfer D’Wan Mathis at quarterback, but other than that this is probably the least talented roster in the AAC. Greg Schiano put together the best Rutgers squad in nearly a decade last year and all signs point to this year’s team being even better.
Rutgers -14.5 -110 (1 unit)
I am also going to be betting moneyline parlays this year of the moneyline underdogs I like. If you think individual moneylines have edge, it follows that the parlay should as well and it gives you a nice upside tail to root for on Saturdays. To keep the number of parlays manageable for this week (no one wants to spend 30 minutes betting a million different parlays), I have excluded Charlotte (their ML is not that steep) and Fresno State (the lowest unit pick). I am betting the other 6 combinations of 2 team ML parlays for 0.1 units each, listed below:
Florida Atlantic ML/Central Michigan ML +6500 (0.1 units)
Florida Atlantic ML/Rice ML +9500 (0.1 units)
Florida Atlantic ML/Texas State ML +6320 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Rice ML +4300 (0.1 units)
Central Michigan ML/Texas State ML +2842 (0.1 units)
Rice ML/Texas State ML +4180 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 0
This week serves as a prequel to the rest of the season, there are only five games this weekend, and none of them will be grabbing national headlines. The season starts in earnest next weekend, with a full slate of games from Thursday the 2nd through Monday the 6th.
Hawaii @ UCLA (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)
I am pretty bullish on Hawaii this season and bet the over on 7 wins for the Rainbow Warriors this year. They finished last year a solid 72nd in my ratings and return every contributor on defense including all 11 starters. UCLA figures to be improved and has an experienced quarterback in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but Hawaii is a top half team in the MWC.
Hawaii +18.5 -110 (2 units)
Hawaii ML +650 (0.5 units)
College Football Preseason Bets
With football season coming up around the corner, it’s time for my favorite betting opportunity of the year- college football win totals. College football is the only sport that I know well enough to bet profitably, and I think there is the most money to be made early in the season. By the latter half of the season, most models agree about the relative strength of various teams, and you’re unlikely to see any big discrepancies between my model and the Vegas line.
While there’s not much edge to be had in the back half of college football season, the beginning of the season is a totally different story. No one knows how to price teams at the beginning of the season, as college football rosters are so big that backing out the value of individual players (beyond quarterbacks) is practically impossible.
This season figures to be particularly hard to price. The NCAA has ruled that the 2020 season does not count to a player’s four years of college eligibility. As a result, the sport as a whole is significantly more experienced than it normally is- the average FBS roster is about 0.7 years more experienced than in a normal year. Any model which is calibrated on past years’ returning production data is going to have to make significant adjustments this year.
Connecticut Over 2 -125 (8 units)
I will admit that I am scraping the bottom of the barrel here betting on UConn. Everyone agrees that they’re one of the ten worst teams in FBS, I am just betting their over because I think they’re bottom ten, but not bottom five. The Huskies are one of three teams that cancelled their 2020 season because of COVID which makes them especially hard to price.
There’s a ton of turnover on this roster given the year off, but even using a conservative guess of how much experience is on this team, I still like the over. They have two games against FCS teams in Holy Cross and Yale, both of which they should win. They also will be road favorites at UMass and play two other sub-100 teams in Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee.
Duke Under 3.5 +125 (6 units)
David Cutcliffe has done a great job in his time at Duke, but last year’s team was possibly the worst of his entire tenure. The Blue Devils went 2-9 and were a complete disaster on defense, allowing 38 points or more in half their games, largely to subpar opposition. My numbers rated them as the worst defensive team in the entire Power Five last year.
While the defense has nowhere to go but up, the offense will press the reset button. Duke returns 54% of their offensive production. That figure is low in normal years, and extremely low this year given how experienced the sport as a whole will be.
Duke will be favored in three games this year- Kansas, NC A&T and Charlotte. None of the three are easy wins, they’ll likely be single digit favorites in all three. They figure to be at least two touchdown underdogs in every other game, except possibly Georgia Tech.
Michigan Under 7.5 -110 (6 units)
Michigan was a complete disaster last year, going 2-4. To make matters worse, one of the wins was in 3OT against Rutgers, and they were only competitive in one of the four losses. They finished the year 62nd in my ratings, right in the middle of the 130 team pack.
Michigan has recruited at a high enough level that there’s decent talent on this roster, so some improvement is definitely expected from last year. But a win total of 7.5 with this schedule implies Michigan is around the 25th best team in the country. Going from 60th to 25th with no clear answer at quarterback and a middling amount of returning experience is a pretty tough combination, so I like the under on the Wolverines.
BYU Over 7 -115 (4 units)
BYU was the biggest surprise of the 2020 college football season, going 11-1 and demolishing most opponents on a pretty soft schedule. Plenty of teams rack up wins against bad teams without actually being that good, but the Cougars’ underlying fundamentals were quite solid. Last year’s squad finished 8th in my ratings.
BYU will not come close to last year’s Zach Wilson-led heights, and plays a tougher schedule that features 7 Power Five opponents plus Boise State. Still, for them to go under 6 wins would mean they’re around the 60th best team in the sport. There’s almost no track record of teams falling from top 10 to outside the top 50, even with a generational quarterback leaving. I feel confident BYU can put together a solid season and make their way to a bowl.
Boise State Under 9 -115 (3 units)
After 7 successful years in Boise, Bryan Harsin left for Auburn over the offseason. Andy Avalos takes over a veteran team that fell to San Jose State in last year’s Mountain West title game.
The Broncos are once again the consensus pick to win the conference, and while I think they are the best team in the Mountain West, others are not far behind. The MWC is the most experienced conference in the sport, and Wyoming, Nevada and San Jose State are all in my preseason top 50 as well. Add in tough non conference games against Oklahoma State and UCF, and I have a tough time seeing Boise State getting to double digit wins.
Houston Under 8.5 -120 (3 units)
It’s been quite an odd two years for Dana Holgersen at Houston. The Cougars redshirted a ton of players in 2019 before getting hit hard by COVID last year, so the program has not been up to its usual standard set under Kevin Sumlin and Tom Herman. Last year’s team limped to a 3-5 finish that was capped by a loss to a bad Hawaii team.
This year’s squad will certainly be better, and will be helped by a light non-conference slate where the Cougars will be favored in all four games. Still, the middle of the American is better than most give it credit for, and I’m hesitant to say this team can win nine games.
East Carolina Over 5 -130 (2 units)
East Carolina was one of the best Group of Five teams in the country in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Since being ranked in the first CFP poll in 2014, it’s been a rapid slide for the program with six consecutive losing seasons. I think that that streak ends this year. The Pirates return every contributor of note on offense, and rate a fantastic 91% in returning experience.
There are three teams who are clearly at the bottom of the AAC (Navy, Temple and USF) and ECU gets to play them all. Add in an FCS game and the Pirates should be double digit favorites in four games. I am actually going to favor them over South Carolina in week 2, and there’s a few winnable conference games on the schedule as well.
Rice Over 5.5 -125 (2 units)
Rice was hit harder than almost any other team last year with COVID, playing only five games and waiting a month between games two and three. In the limited amount they played, I actually liked what I saw last year from the Owls. They pulled the most shocking result of the season when they beat undefeated Marshall 20-0 on the road in Huntington.
Rice figures to be improved on the defensive side of the ball and has the most talented quarterback the program has seen in years in Nebraska transfer Luke McCaffrey. A tough non-conference slate that features 3 former SWC foes caps their upside, but this is undoubtedly a team with a pulse. There are enough teams without a pulse in Conference USA that they should be able to rack up six wins.
South Carolina Under 3.5 +135 (2 units)
South Carolina was a dumpster fire last year, and Will Muschamp got a well-deserved firing in November. Shane Beamer inherits a complete disaster that is at least three or four years away from being a respectable SEC program. Tons of players transferred out in the offseason making this the least experienced roster in the conference.
The only thing the Gamecocks have going for them is that they’ve recruited at a decent level, so there’s a handful of four stars on the roster. They will be two touchdown underdogs in at least six games and figure to be underdogs when Troy comes to town on October 2nd. I think people are pricing in too much mean regression for the Gamecocks, this team is by far the worst in the SEC not named Vanderbilt.
Here are some other picks I like for smaller size. Some of these are Power Five teams where the amount of talent on the roster is overestimated, like Florida State and Oregon. Others are Group of Five teams with lots of returning experience and soft schedules.
Florida State Under 5.5 +105 (1 unit)
Hawaii Over 7 +125 (1 unit)
Arkansas Under 5.5 -115 (1 unit)
Louisville Over 6.5 -115 (1 unit)
Georgia State Over 5 -120 (1 unit)
Oregon Under 9 -115 (1 unit)
Kent State Over 5.5 +115 (1 unit)
Northwestern Over 6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Iowa to win Big Ten +950 (0.5 units)
Wyoming to win Mountain West +725 (0.5 units)
College Football Bowl Picks
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Week 11: +3.41 units
Week 12: -3.09 units
Week 13: +3.74 units
Week 14: +1.67 units
Week 15: +2.76 units
Week 16: +0.89 units
Season: +32.57 units
I only had one pick last week, but Minnesota covered easily for the second week in a row. These are my last two picks of the year, but stay tuned for some posts in the coming weeks summarizing my model’s 2020 performance and looking forward to 2021.
Houston vs. Hawai’i (December 24th 2:30 PM Central)
Hawai’i had a weird season, only playing 5 games. Still, they played a lot of the top teams in the Mountain West, and are better than their 2-3 record indicates. Houston fumbled down the stretch, coming up just short in their comeback against Memphis. I think the MWC is a bit underrated and like Hawai’i here.
Hawai’i +11 -109 (1 unit)
Texas vs. Colorado (December 29th)
Colorado got a lot of publicity and was briefly ranked thanks to their 4-0 start. The Buffaloes were never as good as the record indicated, only beating a horrible Arizona team by 11 and ekeing past Stanford. Texas got a bit unlucky down the stretch and should be closer to two touchdown favorites here.
Texas -9.5 -114 (1 unit)