Ohio State to make the Playoff +600 (3 units)
I bet 5 units on Ohio State to miss the Playoff at +200 last week, and a few more earlier in the season at +370. I’m getting out of that exposure now.
I think +600 feels about right here. Ohio State looks totally lost with Luke Fahey behind center and will probably lose another game. But if they don’t- all they need to make the Big Ten title game is to win out and have Indiana drop a game. The committee will also give an at-large look to a 9-3 Ohio State team that fails to make the Big Ten title game- they have an elite win on the road against Indiana.
Ole Miss to miss the Playoff -155 (3 units)
Ole Miss got exposed against Georgia. Their defense is awful, and they can’t run the ball with Kewan Lacy out. They make Trinidad Chambliss do absolutely everything.
Ole Miss needs to win out to have a chance at the playoff, and they’re only a tiny favorite at Oklahoma this weekend. I also see a lot of paths where a 9-3 Ole Miss misses the field- they only have 1 win over a team that’s currently ranked, and it’s #24 LSU. In the scrap of 3 loss SEC teams, I think they’d be behind teams like Tennessee (who beat Alabama) and South Carolina (who would have a win over Georgia if they finish 9-3).
Wake Forest to win the ACC +320 (3 units)
We don’t know how good Wake Forest is. They keep shattering our expectations- they have covered 7 in a row against the spread, most of them by several touchdowns. They haven’t played a team ranked better than 50th in my ratings in a month and a half. They could be the 5th best team in the country for all we know.
My model is high on Wake Foerst and low on Miami. Wake pretty much clinches a spot in the ACC title game with a win this week, and I think they’d have a reasonable chance of beating Miami in the ACC title game.
Tennessee to make the SEC Championship Game +470 (2 units)
This year is the last ever SEC championship game, and Tennessee hasn’t played in it since 2007. The Vols have a simple path to the game- win out and have Texas lose a game. My model likes Tennessee (I considered betting them -2.5 against Texas A&M this weekend) and dislikes Texas so that makes this an easy pick.
Iowa to make the Playoff +230 (1 unit)
I think that, in the weak playoff bubble we have this year, the committee is going to be hard pressed to leave out a 10-2 Big Ten team. If the Hawkeyes win out, they won’t have any ranked wins, but they will have a lot of wins over solid teams (Wisconsin, Northwestern). If the options are 10-2 Iowa or 10-2 Houston, the committee may opt for the Big Ten name brand.
Louisville to win the ACC +3000 (1 unit)
The ACC title game will likely be Miami vs. Wake Forest. If Wake Forest loses to SMU this weekend, then the ACC will have a logjam of 2 loss teams. In this case, the conference title game participants are determined by computer ratings.
Louisville is currently behind Wake Forest in the computer ratings, but conditional on Wake Forest losing to SMU, Louisville will probably pass them. The Cardinals are likely thus two wins and a Wake Forest loss to SMU away from a trip to the ACC title game.
Duke to make the Playoff 100/1 (0.5 units)
Duke still has road games at Miami and Wake Forest. They’ll probably lose both. However, they have been playing much better recently (they’re 29th in my ratings after evaporating Boston College and NC State). If they win both games, they’ll have a shot at the ACC title game, but also a reasonable at-large playoff case in the event they don’t make the title game. The road win over Miami would be better than anything else any other 10-2 playoff contenders can boast.
Keelon Russell to win the Heisman +2700 (1 unit)
LaNorris Sellers to win the Heisman +5500 (0.5 units)
Betting on the Heisman is like betting on Rookie of the Year in baseball. You want to bet on the guys who are hot at the end of the season. The best example is 2018, when Tua was favored to win the Heisman all season and Kyler Murray got hot down the stretch and passed him.
There’s no clear Heisman frontrunner this season. CJ Carr is the betting favorite but I’m a huge seller of him at +140- he’s not going to play another meaningful game in the regular season, and you need late-season buzz to win the Heisman.
If Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC title game, Keelon Russell will likely have a big game. That would generate buzz. If South Carolina upsets Georgia to make the Playoff, LaNorris Sellers would be getting hot at the right time. Both guys are also walking highlights reels, which certainly helps in a Heisman race.
I bet on a few Heisman longshots last week (and Devon Dampier has since moved from 130/1 to 12/1) and like these guys this week.