2025 College Football Preseason Picks (Part 2)
Intro
In my first post, I covered my preseason picks for the SEC and Big Ten. In this post, I’ll cover the ACC and Big 12. Stay tuned for part 3 where I’ll go through my preseason picks in the G5.
ACC Preseason Picks
Clemson over 9.5 wins -105 (3 units)
Clemson to win the ACC +170 (1 unit)
Clemson to win the National Championship +1600 (1 unit)
Clemson is getting a lot of buzz this preseason, and for good reason. Unfortunately I am a bit late to the party here- I saw them at 22/1 to win the national title earlier in the spring. But there’s a few good reasons why everyone and their mother loves the Tigers this year.
Most importantly, everyone is back. Clemson had only three players drafted in April. This speaks more to the fact that they have a ton of returning talent than last year’s team being bad. The consensus big board projects them to have five first round picks in the 2026 draft, including two in the top ten.
Second, Cade Klubnik took a huge step forward last year. In his second full year as the starting QB, he jumped from 6.3 yards/attempt to 7.5 yards/attempt.
Third, Dabo has finally started to get with the times. Clemson is not signing huge portal classes, but they did bring in a few guys this year. I think that the optimal way to construct a roster these days is to focus on high school recruiting, and plug a few holes each year in the portal. Clemson is moving in that direction.
This is the best team in the ACC and it is not close. I expect this Clemson team to look more like the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence era teams than the recent disappointments.
SMU under 8.5 wins +100 (4 units)
The argument for SMU is simple. They were in the playoff last year, and could have won a game in the playoff if QB Kevin Jennings didn’t put together an atrocious performance against Penn State. Jennings is back, so they should improve this year.
I am not buying it. Jennings is a very solid QB, but the rest of this roster does not impress me. This is still only their second year in the ACC, and thus the bones of their roster are formed from recruiting classes in the American days. They’ve brought in a ton of players in the portal since joining the ACC, but my model is generally not kind on teams with weaker high school recruiting and heavy portal additions. There is not a surefire NFL player on this entire roster.
SMU also has a much tougher schedule this year. The Mustangs play 5 top 30 opponents, including Baylor and TCU in non-conference play. When you add it all together, they seem like a clear regression candidate in 2025.
Big 12 Preseason Picks
Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins +140 (3 units)
I made a lot of money betting against Oklahoma State last year. The Cowboys started the season as co-favorites to win the Big 12 and wound up 3-9 overall and winless in conference play. I believe I went 4-0 ATS betting against them over the course of the year.
Mike Gundy is back for his 21st year in Stillwater after a tumultuous offseason where he was nearly forced out, but eventually agreed to a pay cut. However, I don’t see much room for optimism this year. Oklahoma State’s recruiting has slipped into the bottom half of the Big 12, and they have one of the worst QB rooms in the power conferences. RB Ollie Gordon, who has been their best player for two years, is also gone to the NFL. This looks like one of the worst teams in the power conferences to me. 4.5 is a low total, but the Big 12 doesn’t have many bad teams, and I expect the Pokes to be underdogs in 10 games.
Arizona State to win the Big 12 +600 (1 unit)
You have to love the Big 12- no team has better than +500 odds to win the conference. Last year, Arizona State was picked dead last in the preseason media poll and won the league. This is truly the one power conference where anything can happen.
Of course, that’s why I’m betting on Arizona State to repeat as conference champions this year. Yes, star RB Cam Skattebo is gone, but nearly every other player of note is back. The Sun Devils rank near the top of FBS in returning production. QB Sam Leavitt is flying up NFL draft boards. The Sun Devils also played their best football at the end of the year, and those games were without future first round WR Jordyn Tyson who will be healthy for 2025.
No other team in the Big 12 has the combination of experience and high-end talent that Arizona State does, and that makes them good value at this price.