College Football Picks Week 6 2023
Last week was my best of the season, largely thanks to West Virginia. The Mountaineers cashed as a +370 underdog, winning by 3 thanks to blocking two TCU field goals in the 4th quarter. My season turned around at this time last year so hopefully this is the beginning of a nice winning streak.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Total: -9.07 units
Arizona @ USC (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
Arizona was awful not long ago- they went a combined 1-16 in 2020 and 2021. They’ve improved tremendously in the last two years and gave Washington a real game last week even with starting QB Jayden de Laura hurt. Their offense will be capable with or without de Laura and as we saw last week against Colorado, the USC defense is a complete sieve. Arizona is a top 40 team in the country and should not be getting three touchdowns here.
Arizona +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Purdue @ Iowa (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Iowa has leaned even further into their identity this year- their defense and special teams remain excellent while their offense is horrible. Starting QB Cade McNamara looks to be out for the year which only compounds their offensive struggles, and they looked awful after he left the game against Michigan State. Purdue is a lot better than their 2-3 record would indicate and they should be road favorites here.
Purdue +2.5 -110 (3 units)
Alabama @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Loyal readers will remember that I bet Texas A&M +8.5 in this matchup in the preseason. That’s obviously great value now, but I’ll still put an extra unit on the Aggies at +2.5. I think they could be the best team in the SEC West- they’re one of a few teams in the country that has the level of athletes that Alabama does, and their quarterbacking situation is better than I feared. Alabama’s problems are well documented and I think they should be small underdogs here.
Texas A&M +2.5 -110 (1 unit)
Texas Tech @ Baylor (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
Baylor pulled off one of the greatest comebacks you’ll ever see against UCF last week, as they won after being down 28 points in the 3rd quarter. I do have some pretty fundamental questions about the Bears, if you exclude the last one and a half quarters against UCF their offense has been horrid this year. Texas Tech is easily the best 2-3 team in the nation and has been extremely unlucky this year.
Texas Tech +1 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 5 2023
Week 5 was light on big upsets but heavy on entertaining games. Ole Miss/LSU took the cake for me- the two teams combined for 1,343 yards, severely damaging LSU’s SEC title hopes.
Michigan (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Texas (+2)
Ohio State (-1)
Washington (-1)
Oregon (+1)
Notre Dame (-1)
Texas A&M (+4)
LSU (+1)
Florida State (-1)
Alabama (+2)
Clemson (-1)
Oklahoma (+1)
Tennessee (+1)
Penn State (+1)
Miami (+1)
USC (-9)
Oregon State (+8)
North Carolina (-1)
Louisville (+2)
Kentucky (+9)
UCLA (+1)
Duke (+1)
Ole Miss (-3)
Wisconsin
Michigan claims the top spot in my ratings for the first time ever. The Wolverines’ defense has been outstanding. They haven’t played an offense worth a damn yet, but they’ve allowed 30 points through 5 games. Unfortunately the Big Ten is so shallow this year that they won’t play a top 50 team until November. I thought Texas A&M would be a disaster without Connor Weigman but they really impressed me against Arkansas and they’ll be SEC West favorites if they beat Alabama this weekend.
Moving Up
I was a week early on Bowling Green- I bet on the Falcons last week against Ohio, this was the week they broke out as they shocked Georgia Tech as a three touchdown underdog. Colorado looked very impressive in a loss to USC, I still have serious questions about their line play but they showed real grit to nearly come back from three scores down. Purdue dominated Illinois in a game that I thought would be a coin flip, they might be the second best team in the Big Ten West despite being 2-3.
Moving Down
Nebraska was ground into a fine paste by Michigan. I was hopeful that their offense would be better without Jeff Sims but it has been paleolithic at best so far this season. San Diego State is off to a shocking 1-4 start and Air Force ran for 287 yards against them this week. UMass has cemented themselves as one of the worst teams in FBS after allowing 50 points at home to a moribund Arkansas State team.
College Football Picks Week 5 2023
Last week was another disaster as neither FIU nor Bowling Green were close to covering. We march on to week 5 looking to turn things around.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Total: -15.28 units
West Virginia @ TCU (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
It was a shock when West Virginia did not fire Neal Brown last year, but that decision has paid off as the Mountaineers are off to a 3-1 start. The defense has been a particular highlight, holding the hyped Texas Tech offense to 13 points last week. TCU has looked good since their season opening loss to Colorado and is just outside my top 25 right now. The Horned Frogs are decent, but I think West Virginia might be the most underrated team in the country and like the Mountaineers here.
West Virginia +12 -110 (2 units)
West Virginia ML +370 (1 unit)
Arkansas State @ UMass (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
These teams are both among the ten worst in FBS. I expected to say that about UMass but not about Arkansas State- to call the Red Wolves’ defense a sieve would be an insult to sieves. They did pull off a shock win against Southern Miss last week but still allowed a frightening 449 yards. Loyal readers who bet my preseason bets have been following along with UMass all season- the Minutemen are better than they record as they outgained Eastern Michigan and New Mexico each of the last two weeks and lost both.
UMass -1 -110 (2 units)
Utah State @ Connecticut (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Utah State all season and still will continue to do so here. The Aggies can’t stop a nosebleed- the only FBS team to not go for 400 yards against them this season is the anemic Iowa offense. They look to be one of the worst teams in a bad Mountain West. Connecticut sucks too, but Utah State should not be a 6 point road favorite over any FBS team.
UConn +6 -110 (2 units)
Georgia @ Auburn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Georgia has fallen a good bit in my ratings since the preseason as their offense looks to have taken a pretty significant step back. New QB Carson Beck has been simply OK, and the Dawgs have had the most success running the ball between the tackles. That will be tough against a stout Auburn front seven. I was amazed that Michigan State transfer Payton Throne landed as an SEC quarterback- and it shows, as Auburn’s offense looks to be from the Paleolithic Era. However their defense is one of the best in the sport and they can keep this game within two touchdowns.
Auburn +14.5 -115 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 4 2023
This fall is shaping up to be quite a bit different than recent college football seasons. In recent years there has been a pretty significant gap between the top few teams and everyone else- Georgia was two touchdowns better than the #10 team for most of last year. This year, the top 10 is much more even and we have a much better chance of a surprise national champion.
Top 25
Georgia
Michigan (+1)
Ohio State (-1)
Washington (+1)
Texas (+5)
Notre Dame
Oregon (+5)
USC (-4)
Florida State (-1)
LSU (-4)
Clemson (-2)
Texas A&M (+4)
Alabama (-2)
Oklahoma (-1)
Tennessee (-1)
Penn State (-1)
Miami
North Carolina (+1)
Florida (-1)
Utah (+4)
Ole Miss (+2)
Louisville (+7)
UCLA (-1)
Duke (+4)
Wisconsin (+2)
Oregon was extremely impressive in their domination of Colorado, the 35-0 halftime score doesn’t even express the full extent of their dominance. The Ducks travel to Eugene in two weeks for what will be the most anticipated Pac-12 game in years. Florida State is now -150 to make the playoff after their win over Clemson. Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk though as they’re yet to face 3 of my top 25 teams (Duke, Miami and Florida). Louisville has been a pleasant surprise in Jeff Brohm’s first season and gets a big visit from Notre Dame next weekend.
Moving Up
Ohio looks to have reclaimed their spot as one of the best teams in the MAC as they thrashed Bowling Green. An Ohio/Toledo rematch looks likely in the MAC title game as the Bobcats for their elusive first MAC title since 1968. Another team I bet against who looked great was Liberty, the Flames are 4-0 and will be favored in every remaining game. Texas A&M completely shut down Auburn, holding the Tigers to 56 yards passing. Unfortunately QB Connor Weigman looks to be done for the year but backup Max Johnson looked quite good in relief.
Moving Down
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Colorado was my biggest loser this week. The Buffaloes’ poor line came back to bite them this week as Shedeur Sanders had no time in the pocket and their fairytale season came screeching to a halt. No team has underperformed preseason expectations more than Baylor who looked terrible against Texas- I think the calls for Dave Aranda’s job are warranted. Boston College looked competent against Florida State but that all went out the window in a 56-28 thrashing at the hands of Louisville.
College Football Picks Week 4 2023
I almost had a big week, as Old Dominion ML +440 nearly cashed. The Monarchs led by 17 in the second quarter and got to -500 on the live line at one point. However, they couldn’t do anything on offense in the second half and ultimately lost by 3.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Total: -9.97 units
Liberty @ FIU (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
FIU has been very good to me this year and I am continuing to ride the Golden Panthers train. I now see them as a top 100 team which is quite an accomplishment considering how much of a disaster this program was when Butch Davis left at the end of 2021. People are acting as if Liberty is far and away better than every other team in CUSA- they are the best team in the league but the gap is not as big as others might think. I think FIU has a chance at this upset.
FIU +10 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +320 (1 unit)
Ohio @ Bowling Green (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ohio generated a lot of headlines with their 10-7 win over Iowa State last weekend. Ohio’s defense is quite good, but I think this result speaks more as to Iowa State’s offensive ineptitude than anything else. Bowling Green is a top 100 team that should not be a 13 point home dog against any conference opponent. The Falcons are a potential bowl team that will hang tough here.
Bowling Green +13 -110 (2 units)
Bowling Green ML +400 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
I am continuing to bet against Wake Forest- the Demon Deacons are just not the same team without Sam Hartman. They looked horrible last week against Old Dominion and I think they’re the most overrated team in the Power Five. Unfortunately I am really late to this one- this line opened Georgia Tech +8 and I was all over the Yellow Jackets there, I still like them here but not for as big a play.
Georgia Tech +4 -112 (2 units)
Arizona @ Stanford (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
My model is very high on Arizona- I have the Wildcats as a top 40 team, a good 10-20 spots above any other computer system I’ve seen. I really liked Stanford in the preseason but they’ve been a big disappointment this year and the over I bet on their win total isn’t looking so hot anymore. This is another big missed opportunity as it would’ve been a bigger play at Arizona -8, which is where this opened, but I still like the ‘Cats here.
Arizona -11.5 -110 (1 unit)
FIU ML/Bowling Green ML +2000 (0.1 units)
College Football Ratings Week 3 2023
Three weeks into the season, the college football landscape looks quite different than it has recently. There don’t really seem to be any dominant teams this year- last year the Georgia/Ohio State/Michigan trio was far better than anyone else. The same teams occupy the top of my ratings this year, but the gap between them and the rest of the top 10 has closed considerably.
Top 25
The odds shown next to the top 15 teams indicate their current betting odds to make the playoff. Numbers in parenthesis indicate a team’s change in ranking from last week.
Georgia -240
Ohio State +170
Michigan -130
USC +250 (+3)
Washington +400 (+9)
LSU +600 (+6)
Notre Dame +400 (-2)
Florida State +115 (-4)
Clemson +900 (+2)
Texas +130 (-2)
Alabama +750 (-5)
Oregon +450 (-3)
Oklahoma +500 (+2)
Tennessee +2500 (-4)
Penn State +340 (-2)
Texas A&M (+2)
Miami (+2)
Florida (+3)
North Carolina (+3)
Oregon State (+2)
Auburn (-5)
UCLA (+3)
Ole Miss (-6)
Utah (-4)
Kansas State (-2)
Washington was extremely impressive in their win over Michigan State. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 473 yards in a hyper efficient performance and looks to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. I was honestly more concerned by Alabama this week than I was in their loss to Texas and the oddsmakers agree as they slipped from +500 to +750 to make the playoff. Public opinion on the SEC has faded a bit but my ratings don’t fully agree with 8 SEC teams in the top 25, including less heralded squads like Texas A&M and Auburn.
Moving Up
Boston College nearly pulled off the upset of the year, falling 31-29 to Florida State in a game that would’ve gone to OT if they could’ve made an extra point. The Eagles are my biggest mover this week despite the loss as they outperformed expectations by four touchdowns. Miami (OH) beat local rival Cincinnati for the first time in over a decade and looks to be one of the best teams in the MAC. LSU went on the road and dominated a top 40 MississippI State team. The Tigers now look to be the favorites in the SEC West.
Moving Down
For the second year in a row, Michigan State got run off the field by Washington- the Spartans were trailing 28-0 after 5 drives. It looks like it might be Dana Holgorsen’s last year in Houston as the Cougars followed up a loss to Rice with a blowout loss to TCU. Arizona State is making a run at being the worst team in the Power Five as the Sun Devils committed 8 turnovers (!) in a loss to Fresno State.
College Football Picks Week 3 2023
FIU saved me from another disaster last week, I lost every pick except them. The Golden Panthers have been my most profitable team this year, covering and nearly winning outright in week 0 before winning as a +390 dog last week. I have a bit of a smaller card this week, hopefully I’ll see more opportunities once conference play starts up later in September.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Total: -9.38 units
Wake Forest @ Old Dominion (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Wake Forest all season- Sam Hartman was one of the best quarterbacks in college football last year and they’re just not the same team without him. Old Dominion really impressed me last week against Louisiana, and the Monarchs have upset ACC teams at home in the past (loyal readers may remember I had ODU ML last year against Virginia Tech). I think they have a chance to do so again here against a mediocre Wake Forest squad.
Old Dominion +14 -112 (3 units)
Old Dominion ML +440 (1 unit)
Penn State @ Illinois (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’m a lot lower on Penn State than other projection systems- I have the Nittany Lions down at 13th while SP+ has them at 4th. I’m also higher on Illinois than most people- I think the Illini grade out as a top half team in the Big Ten and a solid contender for the Big Ten West. It should be no surprise then that I like Illinois here- I view their loss to Kansas last week more as Jalon Daniels’ brilliance than a flaw in the normally sound Illini defense. They’ve had Penn State’s number recently and I think they have a real chance at pulling the first huge upset of the season in the Big Ten.
Illinois +14 +100 (3 units)
Illinois ML +430 (1 unit)
James Madison @ Troy (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I bet against Troy in my preseason bets and am continuing to do so here. James Madison is a top 10 Group of Five team in the country and I think actually underperformed last weekend in a road win against Virginia. Troy was not competitive in a loss against a solid Kansas State team. I think JMU is the better team and a win for the Dukes here would also help my Troy under 8 wins ticket.
James Madison +2 -110 (1 unit)
Northwestern @ Duke (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
After Northwestern got run off the field by Rutgers in week 1 I was worried they might go 0-12. They were a pick’em last week at home against UTEP but were one of the surprises of the week, winning 38-7. They lost a lot of players to the portal when Pat Fitzgerald was let go in July but I think the market may have overreacted a bit, they’re certainly not a good team, but Duke does not have the talent on their roster to be a three score favorite against almost any power conference team.
Northwestern +18 -110 (1 unit)
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
It’s great that these two teams are playing regularly again, the Backyard Brawl is one of the great college football rivalries that has been cut short by realignment. Pitt was an abject disaster last week against Cincinnati as it appears Pat Narduzzi has sent his offense back to the pre-Kenny Pickett stone age. West Virginia was more competitive than the score would suggest against Penn State and may actually get to a bowl game to save Neal Brown’s job.
West Virginia +1 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Ratings Week 2 2023
Week 2 was headlined by Texas’ huge win over Alabama but there were lots of fun games elsewhere on the schedule. I was particularly impressed with Miami, who overcame a big early deficit to stomp Texas A&M. The Hurricanes will easily make it to mid-October undefeated and look primed for their best season in half a decade.
Top 25
The betting odds shown next to the top 15 teams indicate their current betting odds to make the playoff.
Georgia -250
Ohio State +190
Michigan -130 (+1)
Florida State +115 (-1)
Notre Dame +390 (+2)
Alabama +500 (-1)
USC +240 (+7)
Texas +120
Oregon +450 (+3)
Tennessee +750 (-4)
Clemson +1000 (-1)
LSU +700 (-3)
Penn State +330
Washington +500 (+3)
Oklahoma +650 (+1)
Auburn (+3)
Ole Miss (+3)
Texas A&M (-7)
Miami (+7)
Utah (-5)
Florida (+1)
Oregon State (+1)
Kansas State (-2)
North Carolina (-6)
UCLA (+13)
Notre Dame looks like a real contender to me. The Irish went on the road and beat a decent NC State by three scores. Ohio State comes to South Bend in two weeks and I make the Buckeyes only a 3 point favorite in that matchup, it would’ve been nearly a double digit spread in the preseason. I was a big seller of USC in the preseason but the Trojans flew up my ratings after their demolition of Stanford and are now my favorites to win the Pac-12. Elsewhere in Los Angeles I have been very impressed by UCLA through two weeks, they’ve gone from the 40s to the 20s in my rankings.
Moving Up
A lot of people thought Dino Babers was on the hot seat at Syracuse but the early returns have been quite impressive, beating Colgate and Western Michigan by a combined 113-7. A toss-up game at Purdue and a home game at Army are next before the always fun Clemson/Syracuse game. I’ve been bullish on FIU all year but they’ve surpassed even my expectations and have a shot at a bowl game. Cincinnati was supposed to be the worst team in the Big 12 but shut down longtime rival Pitt over the weekend and will challenge for a bowl in Scott Satterfield’s first year at the helm.
Moving Down
Nevada is incomprehensibly bad. Jay Norvell took every good player on the roster with him to Colorado State two years ago and they still haven’t recovered, they were trounced 33-6 by FCS Idaho this weekend. The worst team in the Power Five is either Boston College or Stanford. The Eagles squeaked by Holy Cross while the Cardinal got evaporated by Caleb Williams and the USC offense.
College Football Picks Week 2 2023
Week 1 was a disaster. I hit on UConn but lost on all my other picks. The clear low point was Baylor -27.5 who managed to lose outright. The good news is that week 1 was even worse last year (-12.86 units) and I managed to come back to finish the year in the black.
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1 -7.37 units
Season Total: -6.55 units
North Texas @ FIU (Saturday, 5:30 PM Central)
FIU was kind to me in week 0 and I’m betting on them once again. The Golden Panthers have no shortage of problems, as this is a team that only scored 14 points against Maine last week. However I do think their roster is more talented than the rest of the FBS doldrums as they’ve brought in some Power Five transfers. North Texas’ defense looked positively awful against Cal last week and even a weak FIU attack should be able to score on them.
FIU +12 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +390 (0.5 units)
Nebraska @ Colorado (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
My model had no clue what to make of Colorado in the preseason, as there’s really no precedent for a team completely rebuilding out of the portal the way the Buffs did. I was as surprised as anybody to see them beat TCU last week, but I think this line is a bit of an overreaction. Nebraska really should have won last week and actually moved up in my ratings after their loss to Minnesota. This line was Nebraska -5 or so in the preseason- while Colorado impressed last week, I don’t think it’s justified to move 8 points on the back of one game.
Nebraska +3 -115 (2 units)
Texas State @ UTSA (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I bet against Texas State last week and we all saw how well that went. I’m back to do it again, but my reasoning is a bit different this time. The logic is similar to the Colorado game- I think people overreact to individual data points early in the season. I think Texas State is a full 9 points better than I did a week ago but that doesn’t justify this price- UTSA has one of the most talented rosters than Texas State and has better players at every position group. The Roadrunners should roll here.
UTSA -14 -110 (2 units)
New Mexico State @ Liberty (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
This was a fantastic matchup last year as New Mexico State beat Liberty outright as a three touchdown underdog. I like the Aggies once again here- I was a seller of Liberty in the preseason and continue to be so here. They did nothing to change my mind in week 1 with a narrow win over a bad Bowling Green team. New Mexico State is much better than they were a few years ago and can hang with the Flames.
New Mexico State +9.5 -105 (1 unit)
New Mexico State ML +300 (0.5 units)
Miami (OH) @ UMass (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I was all over UMass over 2 wins in the preseason. We’re halfway there, as the Minutemen knocked off New Mexico State as a 7 point underdog in week 0. I think they have a great chance to pick up their second win here. Miami was one of the worst bowl teams in recent memory last year and replaces a lot of their offense from last year’s team. They looked positively awful in week 1 and I like a small play on UMass.
UMass +6.5 -108 (1 unit)
New Mexico State ML/FIU ML +1860
College Football Ratings Week 1 2023
Week 1 is in the books and it was a fun one. I viewed the ACC as a tossup between Florida State and Clemson in the preseason but that shifted massively as Florida State dominated LSU and Clemson lost to Duke. The Seminoles are now even money to win the conference title, up from +225 or so before week 1.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Florida State (+4)
Michigan
Alabama (-2)
Tennessee (+5)
Notre Dame (+5)
Texas (-2)
LSU (-4)
Clemson (-2)
Texas A&M (-1)
Oregon (+2)
Penn State (-4)
USC (+4)
Utah (-2)
Oklahoma (+8)
Washington (+4)
North Carolina (+8)
Auburn (-3)
Ole Miss (-5)
Kansas State (-1)
Florida (+3)
Oregon State (+7)
Wisconsin (-5)
Mississippi State (-8)
LSU fell four spots after their loss to Florida State. The Tigers were viewed as co-favorites to win the SEC West in the preseason but now are only looking like 3 point favorites or so against Mississippi State next weekend. Oklahoma could not have looked better against Arkansas State, throwing for 12 yards per attempt in a dominating 73-0. The Sooners now look like Texas’ biggest competition in the Big 12.
Moving Up
In these sections, the number after a team’s name indicates by how much their rating changed- i.e. a +7 indicates that I think this team is 7 points better than I did a week ago.
Texas State (+9.2) was unquestionably the biggest surprise of week 1. I was a huge seller of the Bobcats in the preseason, thinking they were one of the worst teams in FBS. They responded with their biggest win in program history, upsetting Baylor on the road. Colorado (+6.3) stole the headlines with their win over TCU- I still think the Buffaloes have some serious problems on the lines but their skill position talent is undeniable. Utah State (+5.4) outgained Iowa in a loss and if not for a few missed fourth downs could have won outright.
Moving Down
Nevada (-5.2) allowed USC to score 66 points and rack up 12 yards per play, which is generally not a recipe for success. Arkansas State (-4.8) was destroyed by Oklahoma and it’s looking like it could be Butch Jones’ last year in charge of the Red Wolves. Virginia (-3.8) underperformed my low expectations against Tennessee and could be headed for one of their worst seasons in recent memory.
College Football Picks Week 1 2023
The season got off to a nice start in week 0 as FIU +11.5 covered easily and the ML almost hit as well, Louisiana Tech scored a late touchdown to win the game. In even better news, my UMass Over 2 wins bet is marking very well after they soundly beat New Mexico State.
Preseason: +0.82 units
North Carolina State @ Connecticut (Thursday, 6:30 PM Central)
This is a bit of a weird game as UConn has not hosted many Power Five teams since they became an independent a few years ago. NC State was a bit of a disappointment last year with an 8-5 season after starting the year in the top 15. Now star QB Devin Leary has departed for Kentucky and the Wolfpack will take a big step back this year. UConn, on the other hand, was one of the stories of college football last year with a shocking bowl season and I like them to keep the momentum up this year.
Connecticut +14.5 -110 (3 units)
Connecticut ML +525 (0.5 units)
South Florida @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
South Florida has gone through some lean years recently as they have only one win over an FBS team in the last 3 years. First year HC Alex Golesh steps into a much better situation with Power Five transfers on both sides of the ball and I think they have a 50/50 shot at a bowl this year. I’m pretty down on Western Kentucky this year as their front seven in particular will take a big step back from last year.
South Florida +11.5 -110 (3 units)
South Florida ML +350 (0.5 units)
Texas State @ Baylor (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Texas State is undergoing a complete rehaul as former coach Jake Spavital tried to “get rich quick” and gambled on a bunch of junior college players without building for the future. I like the long term potential of this job but they might have the worst roster in FBS right now. I’m a bit bullish on Baylor this year and think they have a puncher’s chance at the Big 12 title game and they should roll here.
Baylor -27.5 -110 (2 units)
Nevada @ USC (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Nevada was in the same boat as Texas State last year as Jay Norvell left for Colorado State and took almost the whole roster with him. They’ve had a chance to rebuild now and while they’re still a sub .500 team, this line treats them as a complete joke. USC’s defense is porous and the Wolf Pack can score enough on them to stop this from being a laugher.
Nevada +38 -110 (2 units)
Washington State @ Colorado State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
This pick shouldn’t be much of a surprise given that I really like Colorado State this year. The Rams have one of the most talented rosters in the Mountain West, and given how hard it is to recruit at Washington State, the difference in talent between these two rosters is really not that large. Colorado State could make some noise this season and if they win this one they’ll have momentum going into a huge in-state clash against Deion Sanders’ Colorado in their next game.
Colorado State +11.5 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ San Jose State (Sunday, 2:30 PM Central)
San Jose State’s stadium has undergone significant renovations and they’re celebrating its completion by hosting Pac-12 foe Oregon State. The Beavers are ranked in the preseason top 25 for the first time in over a decade but shouldn’t overlook this game- the Spartans have a great quarterback in Hawai’i transfer Chevan Cordeiro and are a contender for the Mountain West title. Oregon State has a great team this year but they’re not talented enough to be such a big road favorite over a decent SJSU squad.
San Jose State +16.5 -110 (1 unit)
Connecticut ML/South Florida ML +2712 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 0 2023
We may only have a few games this weekend, but it is college football and there are a few exciting games on the schedule. My biggest bet of the season is on UMass over 2 wins so you bet I’ll be watching closely as the Minutemen have a real chance to win their opener against New Mexico State. This is just an appetizer for the main course next weekend.
FIU @ Louisiana Tech (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
This pick should be no surprise given that I’ve bet on the under on Louisiana Tech’s win total. I came close to betting the over on FIU as well- the Golden Panthers should be improved from last year’s outfit and a high school team could score points against this dreadful Louisiana Tech defense. FIU may be in a pretty rough spot for the long term but they’ve improved the roster a lot from the dreadful 2021 outfit and I think they have a shot in this game.
FIU +11.5 -110 (2 units)
FIU ML +340 (1 unit)
College Football Preview: Preseason Top 25
We’re now less than a week away from college football season, which means it’s time for my preseason top 25. My model is more similar to other computer ratings than the human polls in the preseason. There’s a lot of SEC teams in the bottom end of my top 25 that my model likes given the talent levels on their roster. On the other hand, I’m lower on less talented 2022 surprise teams like Tulane and Oregon State.
Numbers in parentheses represent a team’s change in rank from my final 2022 ratings.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State (+2)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan (+3)
LSU (-2)
Texas (+2)
Florida State (+2)
Clemson (+4)
Penn State (-4)
Texas A&M (+14)
Tennessee (-5)
Notre Dame (+7)
Utah (-2)
Oregon (+4)
Ole Miss (+2)
Auburn (+16)
Mississippi State (-3)
USC (+21)
Wisconsin (+17)
Kansas State (+1)
Washington (-6)
Kentucky (+6)
Missouri (+17)
Oklahoma (+17)
Florida (+13)
Georgia opens the season pretty far ahead of the rest of the pack. I would make the Bulldogs a 5.5 point favorite against #2 Ohio State on a neutral field. My top 5 are identical to the AP Poll (albeit in a slightly different order), but things change a bit after that. I’m pretty high on Texas this year and think the Longhorns have a great shot at their first playoff. Elsewhere in the Lone Star state, Texas A&M is all the way up at #10 despite being in the 20s elsewhere thanks to their years of elite recruiting classes.
My view on the Pac-12 is quite a bit different from the consensus. I was low on USC last year and I am once again this year, no one else has them as low as I do at 18th. I make Oregon and Utah the co-favorites for the conference title, although it will be tough for any team out west to make the playoff given how deep the conference is.
College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 4
This is my final installment in my preseason bets series. Today I’ll be going through my favorite bets in the Big Ten and the SEC, in parts 1, 2 and 3 I covered the rest of the country.
Mississippi State Over 6.5 wins +145 (2 units)
Tragedy struck Mississippi State with the sudden death of HC Mike Leach last December. Zach Arnett steps into the job as a defensive-minded coach who inherits a great QB in Will Rogers. The Bulldogs have been a darling of my ratings for years, and finished last year 14th. There will be some bumps along the road this year given the scheme changes but with Rogers at the helm I still think they’ll be a top 25 outfit, and that’s enough to win seven games even in the rugged SEC West.
Alabama Under 10.5 wins -175 (2 units)
For the first time since 2015, Alabama will start the season outside the top 2 of my preseason ratings. I have the Crimson Tide all the way down at third (!) behind Georgia and Ohio State. The biggest question mark is at quarterback, where Bryce Young departs and the succession plan remains unclear. Further complicating matters is the fact that Alabama plays 4 games against my preseason top 10 and 8 games against my top 25. There’s no doubt that they’re one of the best teams in the sport, but the gap between them and the rest of the SEC has closed a bit this year.
Iowa Under 8 wins +125 (2 units)
Iowa really leaned into the bit last year, putting up one of the most unique seasons in recent memory. They had the best defense in college football and an offense so allergic to the downfield pass that it would make Bo Schembechler proud. While other teams in the Big Ten West are pivoting towards a more modern attack, Iowa is sticking to their guns and will try to muscle their way to a division championship. There’s nowhere for the offense to go but up and Cade McNamara is a big improvement on their 2022 quarterback play. However the defense will take a step back from their elite status and I don’t think Iowa can bully their way to an eight win season.
Texas A&M +8.5 -110 vs. Alabama (2 units)
There are a lot of lookahead lines available for Alabama, and I considered betting against them in several given that I’m a bit low on the Crimson Tide this year. However, I thought that this one delivered the most value. Texas A&M will be under the spotlight this year as Jimbo Fisher’s squad looks to rebound from a horrendous 5-7 season. I have the Aggies 10th in my preseason ratings, a bit higher than the consensus which has them in the teens. The 2022 squad finished 24th in my ratings despite the losing record and the talent level on the roster is in the top 5 of the sport given the years of recruiting success Fisher has had. I have A&M third in the SEC West and think they can once again take down Alabama at home like they did in 2021.
Wisconsin to win Big Ten West +105 (1 unit)
Given that I’m down on Iowa this year, it makes sense to bet on their biggest competition in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin is completely remaking themselves under new HC Luke Fickell, who has brought in pass-happy OC Phil Longo from North Carolina and a bevy of offensive transfers. My model likes what it sees in the talent on both sides of the ball here and ranks Wisconsin 18th, a bit higher than the fringe top 25 outfit they are elsewhere. Given that I don’t like Iowa this year, it also makes the Badgers the clear best team in the division.
College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 3
This is part 3 of 4 of my preseason bets series. In part 1 and part 2 of this series I went through my favorite bets in the Group of Five. Today I’ll cover my picks in the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC.
Stanford Over 3 wins +135 (4 units)
Stanford went 3-9 last year but were a bit better than that record suggests, beating Notre Dame and having some bad luck in one score games. They do lose almost everyone from that team though, including QB Tanner McKee who was drafted by the Eagles.
One of the biggest changes I made to my ratings this year is increasing the weight of recent recruiting data. No team was a bigger beneficiary of this than Stanford- the Cardinals have signed 4 top 50 classes in a row, two of them in the top 25. Even though this team is inexperienced, I think there is some talent on the roster given the number of three and four stars they have.
The schedule isn’t easy for first year head coach Troy Taylor, they will be favored only against Hawai’i and Taylor’s former school (Sacramento State). However I think they’re more talented than the rest of the bottom end of the Pac-12 and can steal a few wins in conference play.
Oklahoma Under 9.5 wins -120 (4 units)
Last year was shocking for Oklahoma- the Sooners are one of two teams in the sport who have never been bad (the other, of course, is Ohio State). Even Alabama spent the 1990s in the wilderness. Oklahoma finished last season 41st in my ratings, their lowest finish since I started keeping records in 2011. There’s enough talent on this roster that they should improve over last year’s team but this win total implies they’re a top 15 team in the country. The Sooners return an average amount of talent from last year’s team, but teams don’t often make the jump from the forties to the teens unless they’re incredibly experienced.
Kansas Over 6 wins -125 (3 units)
Kansas to make Big 12 Title Game +1200 (0.5 units)
I bet on Kansas over 2.5 wins last year and had one of the easiest cashes of my life as they started the season 5-0, even getting ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 2009. I’m not getting as cheap a price this year but I like the Jayhawks once again. I just don’t understand this price- last year’s team was legitimately good, finishing 42nd in my ratings. 17 starters return including electric QB Jalon Daniels who is my pick for 1st team all-conference. I think that the 2023 Jayhawks will be an improvement on 2022 and they should make a bowl easily.
Kansas +7 -110 vs. Oklahoma (2 units)
Considering that I’m both betting on Kansas and betting against Oklahoma, it should be no surprise that this is one of my favorite lookahead lines of the year. My numbers make Kansas a very small favorite in this game.
Houston Over 4.5 wins -140 (3 units)
Houston is one of four teams making the jump from the American to the Big 12 this season. Last year’s final record was a bit of a disappointment at 8-5, but the Cougars were better than their record, finishing 31st in my ratings. They’re projected to take a big step back this year, which makes sense given that they take a big step up in weight class and replace most of last year’s team. However, I don’t agree with this line that places them at the bottom of the Big 12- unlike some of the other new entrants to the conference, Houston has been recruiting at a Power Five level and they have the talent to make a bowl this year.
Georgia Tech Over 4.5 wins +120 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech fired Geoff Collins at mid-season last year and retained interim Brent Key after an exciting second half of the season that featured wins over Pitt and North Carolina as three touchdown underdogs. I’m optimistic about the Yellow Jackets this season- they have an exciting quarterback in 4-star Texas A&M transfer Haynes King and finally have a roster that wasn’t recruited for the flexbone. They play a lot of the bottom feeders in the ACC and I make them a favorite in 6 games this year, so I think they can make a bowl.
Utah to win the Pac-12 +600 (1 unit)
I had a Utah to win the Pac-12 ticket last year at +240 which cashed, and I’m here to do it again. The Utes are looking to threepeat as conference champions in what very well could be the last year of Pac-12 football. I see USC, Utah and Oregon as pretty evenly matched at the top of the conference which makes the Utes a bargain at +600 compared to the +190 and +300 prices of the Ducks and Trojans. Utah will play their usual brand of tough football with one of the best defenses and one of the best offensive lines in the sport and while it’s not a glamorous style of play, it is a good one.
College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 2
This is part 2 of 4 of my preseason bets series. In this installation I’ll tackle the rest of the Group of Five bets that I didn’t get to in part 1 of this series.
UMass Over 2 wins -130 (6 units)
UMass is one of the worst teams in FBS, finishing last year 127th out of 131 teams in my ratings. However, longtime readers of this site will know that I love to bet on the worst teams in the sport. I project significant improvement from the Minutemen this year and think they stand a very good chance of winning multiple games for the first time since 2018. They return 15 starters from last year’s squad and should have their most experienced team in years. Most importantly, they bring in transfer quarterback Taisun Phommachanh. Phommachanh is a former 4 star recruit who signed with Clemson out of high school- while he hasn’t lived up to that billing in college (otherwise he would not be at UMass), he’s the most talented QB to come through Amherst in a long time.
The schedule lines up nicely for the Minutemen. They’ll be a double digit favorite against FCS Merrimack, and I make them a favorite against New Mexico and Arkansas State as well. I make them a single digit underdog in 4 other games as well, they only play 3 teams in the top half of my ratings. 2023 UMass can emulate the success of 2022 UConn and be the surprise of the Northeast.
Texas State Under 4.5 wins -175 (4 units)
Texas State has been the most mismanaged program in FBS in recent years but finally made a good hire in Incarnate Word’s G.J. Kinne. I like the long term potential of this program in a fertile recruiting area but Kinne will take a bit to get going and the Bobcats have gone under 4.5 wins in each of the last 7 seasons. As you’d expect with the coaching change, they don’t return much talent and they’ll have horrible defensive numbers. Years of neglect on the recruiting trail have caught up to them as they have the worst recruiting ranking in my system of any team in FBS. 5 wins haven’t been seen in San Marcos since 2014 and I doubt that changes this year.
Troy Under 8 wins +135 (3 units)
Troy had a fantastic season last year going 12-2 and finishing #19 in the AP Poll, their first ranked finish in school history. They did get pretty lucky, only finishing 74th in my final ratings and winning a slew of close games. I expect the Trojans to regress a bit this year- they’re at about the 25th percentile for returning experience and are particularly light on the offensive line, which my model cares a lot about. This is still a good team but they significantly outperformed last year and I expect them to come back down to earth a bit with a 6-6 or 7-5 type season.
Colorado State Over 4.5 wins -165 (2 units)
This line doesn’t make much sense to me. Colorado State was not particularly good last year, but the same could be said about the whole Mountain West and they finished as the exact average team in the conference. They return an above average amount of talent and just signed their best recruiting class in school history, so they should improve a bit and become a top half team in the league.
South Alabama to win the Sun Belt West +155 (2 units)
The Sun Belt West was a two horse race between Troy and South Alabama last year and I expect the same this year. Troy went 12-2 and South Alabama went 10-3, the best season in recent history for each team. Given that I’m down on Troy it makes sense to bet on South Alabama to win the division- I’m not betting on the Jaguars’ win total because of their brutal non-conference slate but they’re the clear best team in the West. 18 starters return from last year’s team and they’re a sleeper pick for the NY6 if they can get through their brutal September schedule.
College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 1
College football season is just a few weeks away, so it’s time for me to start putting down some preseason bets. The preseason is my favorite time to bet on college football as I’ve had some good success betting win totals in recent years. I have quite a few bets this preseason so I’ve divided my picks by conference. Today I’ll tackle Conference USA, the MAC and the Mountain West.
Utah State Under 5 wins -125 (4 units)
Utah State went 6-7 last year, losing the First Responder Bowl to Memphis. However, they only got there via smoke and mirrors- they were a bottom 15 team in my ratings and scraped out a lot of wins against the dregs of the Mountain West, going 4-9 ATS. I see no reason for them to be better this year- they only return 9 starters and the core recruiting classes that make up this roster rank outside the top 100. The Aggies also play the toughest schedule in the conference, facing all of the league’s top 4 teams, as well as Iowa and James Madison in non-conference play. Unfortunately I am late to this one as the line was 5.5 a few weeks ago but this is still my favorite under bet of the season.
Louisiana Tech Under 6 wins +105 (3 units)
Perhaps no team has been hurt more by conference realignment than Louisiana Tech. When the Bulldogs joined Conference USA, it regularly had top 25 teams. Now they’re left behind in the worst league in FBS with no natural rivals. To make matters worse, I also think they’ll be quite bad this year. They were a bottom 10 outfit in FBS last year- the offense will improve with talented Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier at the helm, but the defense will be a sieve. They allowed a frightening 482 YPG in conference play last year and project to be even worse on that side of the ball. The roster, especially on defense, is littered with 2 stars and junior college players and I don’t think that’s enough to cut it even in this weakened CUSA.
Akron Over 4 wins -120 (3 units)
Akron might be the toughest place to win in FBS. They have to compete with a plethora of other MAC schools on the recruiting trail and they have no money. I was thus pretty shocked when they got a respected coach to come here in Joe Moorhead and I really like what he’s done. They went 2-10 last year but lost oodles of close games and actually outgained their opposition in MAC play. I project this year’s squad to be middle of the pack in the MAC and that is enough to challenge for a bowl game.
New Mexico State to make CUSA Title Game +1000 (2 units)
New Mexico State was one of the best stories in college football last year, going 7-6 despite having a preseason win total of 3. The highlight of the season was a 49-14 win over Liberty as a three touchdown underdog. I am bullish on NMSU and bearish on the main contenders in CUSA (Western Kentucky and Liberty) which makes this an easy bet. The Aggies have a proper QB in Diego Pavia and I think they’re a clear cut above the bottom few teams in the league. They’ll be decent underdogs in road games against Liberty and WKU but I think that this is fantastic value, it’s my favorite longshot bet of the preseason.
College Football Ratings 2022 Wrap-Up
It’s been a month since Georgia demolished TCU for the national championship, the end to a thrilling college football season. We had great rivalry games like Michigan/Ohio State and Alabama/LSU, great Cinderella stories like TCU and Tulane, and great players like Caleb Williams and Max Duggan. It’s time to see how my model sees the state of college football at the end of a wild 2022 season.
Picks Summary
I finished the season +9.31 units with 235.5 units bet, capped off by a nice bowl season where I won 6 units. I’m very happy to have finished in the black. After a disastrous week 1, I thought I was going to be headed for a second straight season in the red but things really turned around in the second half of the year. 2022 marked my fifth season of tracking all my picks, here are my all-time college football betting results:
2018: -5.88 units
2019: +30.71 units
2020: +34.36 units
2021: -34.75 units
2022: +9.31 units
Total: +33.75 units
Top 25
1. Georgia
2. Alabama (+3)
3. LSU (+5)
4. Ohio State (-1)
5. Penn State (-1)
6. Tennessee (+3)
7. Michigan (-5)
8. Texas (-2)
9. Florida State (-2)
10. Oregon State (+4)
11. Utah
12. Clemson (+1)
13. TCU (+2)
14. Mississippi State (+7)
15. Washington (+4)
16. Illinois (-4)
17. Ole Miss (+9)
18. Oregon
19. Notre Dame (-3)
20. Tulane (+5)
21. Kansas State (-11)
22. Louisville (+9)
23. UCLA (+13)
24. Texas A&M (+5)
25. Pittsburgh (-8)
Georgia finished the season not just first, but extremely far ahead of the rest of the pack. I would make the Bulldogs about a -190 moneyline favorite against Alabama in a hypothetical matchup. LSU has been a darling of my system all season and after a dominant 63-7 win over Purdue in the Citrus Bowl, they finish the season 3rd in my system, far higher than you’ll find them anywhere else. TCU rocketed up to 6th after beating Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl before crashing back down to earth after getting trashed by Georgia in the title game.
Moving Up
Fresno State (64th —> 44th) got off to a rocky 1-4 start to the season but finished with 9 wins in a row, sending out star senior QB Jake Haener in style with a dominant win over Washington State in the LA Bowl. Western Kentucky (86th —> 66th) has a star QB in their own in gunslinger Austin Reed. Reed will be coming back to WKU next year after leading the ‘Tops to a huge upset win over South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. Arkansas (40th —> 29th) had another good season in Sam Pittman’s 3rd season in Fayetteville, going 7-6 with a thrilling win over Kansas to cap the season.
Moving Down
Cincinnati (41st —> 54th) was shellacked by Louisville in the Fenway Bowl and their season kind of fell off the rails after their AAC title hopes were derailed after a loss to Tulane. Florida (27th —> 38th) nearly failed to score a point against Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl and must now face life without Anthony Richardson next year. Kansas State (10th —> 21st) went up a weight class when they faced Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and it showed in a 45-20 defeat that was not as close as the score indicated.
Bowl Game Picks 2022
I had two bets last weekend- Akron +11.5, which hit easily, and Utah to win the Pac-12 +240 which hit as well. The Utah win put me back into the black for the year. I am very happy to have made it back into positive territory- after my disastrous week 1, I thought I was going to be spending the whole season in the red.
Preseason: -5.71 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
Week 5: +4.14 units
Week 6: -0.96 units
Week 7: -4.47 units
Week 8: -2.27 units
Week 9: -0.55 units
Week 10: +9.36 units
Week 11: -0.72 units
Week 12: -3.18 units
Week 13: +8.00 units
Week 14: +0.91 units
2022 Total: +3.16 units
Houston vs. Louisiana (Independence Bowl, December 23rd, 2 PM Central)
Houston has been a weird team this year. They got a lot of hype in the preseason as a dark horse playoff contender and they showed it at times, like in a 42-3 win over East Carolina. However, they also put up some shocking defensive performances, allowing 77 to SMU and letting Temple and Tulsa into the 30s. The fact remains that they have massively more talent than Louisiana though, and I think they will win easily in a high scoring affair.
Houston -6.5 -115 (3 units)
Wyoming vs. Ohio (Arizona Bowl, December 30th, 3:30 PM Central)
Ohio made it to the MAC title game once again, and lost once again. The Bobcats still have not won a conference title since the 1960s, although just getting to the championship game was an achievement for the Bobcats given how bad they were in Tim Albin’s first year. Wyoming is a pretty fraudulent 7-5, the Cowboys only made it to a bowl by scraping past some bad Colorado State and Hawai’i teams. I think the Mountain West as a whole is pretty bad this year and think Ohio should be a decent favorite here.
Ohio -1 -110 (3 units)
Minnesota vs. Syracuse (Pinstripe Bowl, December 29th, 1 PM Central)
Minnesota rocketed into the top 10 of my ratings back in October before a losing skid to Purdue and Illinois. I do still have the Gophers in my top 25 though- far above a Syracuse team that looked absolutely awful from Halloween onwards. I think that the Syracuse we’ve seen in the last few weeks is a lot more representative of the Orange than the squad that dashed off to a 6-0 start, Minnesota should roll here.
Minnesota -7.5 -110 (2 units)
Florida State vs. Oklahoma (Cheez-It Bowl, December 29th, 4:30 PM Central)
These are two proud programs who are feeling very differently about their seasons. Florida State has a ton of room for optimism and should be the favorites to win the ACC next year. Oklahoma had their worst year since the 90s and might be entering the SEC in 2024 on the shakiest footing the program has been on this millennium. I’ve been a buyer of Florida State all season and will continue to do so here with a small play on the Seminoles.
Florida State -7 -105 (1 unit)
Pre-Bowl Games Top 25
Conference championship weekend delivered a few upsets with Kansas State, Utah and Fresno State all winning as underdogs. We’re now headed into the postseason with a playoff of the top 3 teams in my ratings and #15 TCU. I don’t have any picks for the playoff games as my model largely agrees with the lines of Michigan -8 and Georgia -6.5, my picks for other bowl games are in the next post.
Top 25
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Alabama
Texas
Florida State
LSU (+1)
Tennessee (-1)
Kansas State
Utah (+2)
Illinois (-1)
Clemson (+4)
Oregon State
TCU (-3)
Notre Dame (-1)
Pittsburgh (-1)
Oregon
Washington
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Texas Tech
Houston (+2)
Kentucky
Tulane (+12)
Both Penn State and Florida State did not get a lot of hype this year despite being very solid teams. Both teams will return their quarterbacks next year along with plenty of other contributors and I expect to see them in the preseason top 10. I’ve been a big seller of Clemson all year but they were dominating in a win over North Carolina and are favored in their bowl against a depleted Tennessee team.