College Football Playoff Picture- Week 3 2026

A lot of the top teams (Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami) have seen their odds go up. A lot of the routes where these teams were going to miss the playoff that were priced in the preseason were ones where they’re clearly a lot worse than expected (as is happening to Oregon). Even those these teams haven’t played anyone good, it’s already clear that they’re not going to be say, 1.5-2 SD downside surprises, and that increases their playoff odds a bit.

I’d like to shout out some teams like USC, Utah and Tennessee, who have not played anyone good yet, but are seeing their playoff odds rise as they destroy bad teams.

Texas’ odds obviously went up after their win over Ohio State, although I’m still a seller of their odds in the market at -370. They’re only 6th in my power ratings and still have a tough schedule ahead (including a trip to aforementioned Tennessee in two weeks).

There’s no surprises here as Oregon, Oklahoma and Ohio State lost the marquee matchups of the week. My model is pretty in line with the market consensus on Oregon (who is still 9th in my power ratings) as well as Oklahoma.

Minnesota was considered a wild card contender by my model and is out of contention after getting pulverized by Mississippi State.

Additional shout outs are in order for UCLA (playoff odds 5% —> 9% this week) and Mississippi State (playoff odds of 1% —> 6% this week)