Bracketology 2/28/2025
We are finally starting to see some bubble teams pick up good wins. In the last 2 days, Ohio State got a Q1 road win at USC, Boise State knocked off Utah State, and San Francisco won at Oregon State.
I moved Ohio State into the field, replacing a Wake Forest team that is nearly eliminated after an awful loss to Virginia. Boise State and San Francisco, meanwhile, will both likely move into the field if they win their next game.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Houston
2: Tennessee, Florida, Michigan State, Wisconsin
3: Iowa State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, St. John’s
4: Michigan, Arizona, Missouri, Purdue
5: Texas Tech, Clemson, Oregon, St. Mary’s
6: Mississippi State, UCLA, Marquette, Maryland
7: Kansas, Louisville, Memphis, Ole Miss
8: BYU, Creighton, Gonzaga, Illinois
9: Connecticut, Utah State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico
10: San Diego State, West Virginia, Drake, Nebraska
11: Baylor, Arkansas, VCU, UC San Diego
12: (Oklahoma/Ohio State), (Georgia/Indiana), Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Arkansas State
14: Lipscomb, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado
15: South Dakota State, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Towson
16: Norfolk State, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/Bucknell)
First Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas
Next Four Out: San Francisco, Xavier, SMU, Wake Forest
Not Eliminated: TCU, Colorado State, UCF, Northwestern, Arizona State, Utah
Moving In: Ohio State, Bucknell
Moving Out: Wake Forest, American
Bracketology 2/26/2025
Georgia gave up a 25 point lead at home against Florida yesterday, but managed to hold on to pick up their biggest win of the season. This moves the Bulldogs into the field- their resume average of 42.7 and predictive average of 38 are pretty comfortably better than the rest of the bubble.
I already took Florida off of the 1 line over the weekend, but the combination of their loss and Houston’s win at Texas Tech leave them pretty far back of the Cougars now.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Houston
2: Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, Michigan State
3: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kentucky, St. John’s
4: Michigan, Arizona, Missouri, Purdue
5: Texas Tech, Clemson, Oregon, St. Mary’s
6: Mississippi State, Maryland, UCLA, Marquette
7: Kansas, Ole Miss, Louisville, Memphis
8: Creighton, Utah State, BYU, Gonzaga
9: Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, San Diego State
10: Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Drake
11: Nebraska, Baylor, VCU, UC San Diego
12: (Georgia/Wake Forest), (Arkansas/Indiana), Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Arkansas State
14: Lipscomb, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado
15: South Dakota State, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State
16: Towson, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/American)
First Four Out: Texas, Ohio State, North Carolina, Boise State
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Xavier, SMU, San Francisco
Not Eliminated: TCU, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah, UCF, Kansas State, Northwestern, Rutgers
Bracketology 2/24/2025
Changes abound up and down the seed list after a hectic weekend. Some of the most notable decisions I made include:
1) I moved Tennessee back up to the 1 line after their road win at Texas A&M. Tennessee’s depth of quality wins (9 Q1, 6 Q1A) gave them the nod over Florida for the last 1 seed. Houston will be right in that conversation as well if they knock off Texas Tech tonight.
2) I moved Ohio State out of the field. This would’ve been pretty unthinkable a few weeks ago but the Buckeyes were blown out at home by Northwestern and at 15-13, they are going to need to go 2-1 in their remaining games to have a chance at an at-large.
3) I moved Purdue down to the 5 line. The Boilermakers were a 2 seed just over a week ago but have dropped 3 straight. I gave my last protected seed to Missouri instead of Purdue- The Tigers’ two wins over possible 1 seeds put them over the line.
Note that I had to move BYU all the way down to an 11 seed to satisfy bracketing principles. I have the Cougars at #31 on my seed list but since they don’t play on Sunday, there were no available spots for them on the 8, 9 or 10 lines.
Men’s Bracketology 2/21/2025
Ohio State and Nebraska were both well on their way to an at-large bid, but both took blowout losses to non-tournament teams this week. I’ve dropped them both to the 10 line- but this year’s bubble is too weak to drop either of them out of the field.
Hopes continue to grow for mid-major at-large teams this year. Drake is in decent shape for a bid even after their recent loss to Bradley. In the A10, VCU will get in if they win the rest of their regular season games and I think UC San Diego will as well.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Florida
2: Tennessee, Houston, Wisconsin, Texas A&M
3: Iowa State, Purdue, Michigan, Kentucky
4: Arizona, Michigan State, Missouri, Texas Tech
5: Mississippi State, Marquette, St. John’s, Ole Miss
6: Maryland, Louisville, UCLA, Kansas
7: St. Mary’s, Oregon, Memphis, Clemson
8: Illinois, Creighton, Utah State, Baylor
9: New Mexico, Connecticut, Gonzaga, BYU
10: San Diego State, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Ohio State
11: Vanderbilt, Drake, VCU, (West Virginia/Texas)
12: (SMU/Arkansas), UC San Diego, Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, Akron, High Point, Arkansas State
14: Utah Valley, Lipscomb, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado
15: Central Connecticut State, Norfolk State, Towson, Cleveland State
16: Southern, Bryant, (Quinnipiac/Southeast Missouri), (Omaha/American)
First Four Out: Oklahoma, George Mason, TCU, Georgia
Next Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Xavier, Indiana
Also Considered: San Francisco, UC Irvine, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Utah, Kansas State, USC
Women’s Bracketology 2/20/2025
I pity whichever 1 seed gets Connecticut in their region. The Huskies are now joint favorites to win the national title with South Carolina at +320. However, they’re still quite unlikely to get a 1 seed- the Big East provides very few quality opportunities and thus they only have 4 Q1 wins.
On the bubble, things continue to be pretty static. I moved George Mason into the field in this update as they continue to pile up wins. The power conference teams on the outside looking in all have opportunities to move the needle in the next few weeks but look unlikely to take them.
Men’s Bracketology 2/19/2025
It’s been almost a week since I updated my bracketology- I’ve been travelling in the past week- so there’s a lot of changes in this update. Some of the most impactful changes are:
BYU has been on the bubble or outside the field all season and is now very likely to make the tournament after back to back wins over Kansas State and Kansas. They dominated the Jayhawks by 34 last night and their predictive metrics are now in the low 30s.
TCU has come out of absolutely nowhere to swoop into my First Four Out. It goes to show how weak the underside of this bubble is that the Horned Frogs are in contention- but as winners of 5 of 6, including a huge Q1A win over Texas Tech last night, they are in the thick of things.
The bubble is very weak this year and the middle of the bracket is very strong. The first 38 or so teams on my seed list (my 1-9 seeds, Ohio State and BYU) are all exceedingly likely to make the field. There is a big gulf between those teams and the rest of the seed list.
Men’s Bracketology 2/13/2025
Florida has knocked off Auburn and Mississippi State on the road in back to back games while Tennessee fell to Kentucky on Tuesday. That was enough for the Gators to jump the Vols for the last 1 seed in this update. I’ll be in Gainesville this weekend as Florida takes on South Carolina.
On the bubble, we have a decent amount of movement in this update. I’ve moved Georgia and Texas out after they both lost yet again. They’re replaced by BYU, who got a great win at West Virginia, and SMU, who has finally stacked up enough wins against mediocre teams to move into the field.
This will be my last update before the committee’s top 16 reveal on Saturday. The team that I’m most curious about is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have an interesting profile with resume metrics outside the top 16 and an NCSOS nearing 300. They also have 6 Q1 wins and top 10 efficiency metrics. They’re right on the top 16 cut line for me.
Women’s Bracketology 2/10/2025
Texas got their signature win by knocking off South Carolina on Sunday. That not only caused UCLA to jump South Carolina for the #1 overall seed, but it also entrenched Texas’ spot on the 1 line.
The other big riser since my last update is Kentucky. The Wildcats were not a host in my previous bracketology, but have won back to back games against Alabama and Oklahoma to vault all the way up to the 3 line.
The bubble is pretty much unchanged since my last update. I now project a 3 bid Ivy League as I moved Columbia into the field at the expense of Virginia Tech. There remains a shortage of power conference bubble teams, most of the teams I have just out of the field sport ghastly records against Q1.
Men’s Bracketology 2/10/2025
This is a historically weak bubble. I spent a long time debating who to give my last at-large spot to in this update, and the options are not pretty. I went with Arkansas because their trio of Q1-A wins (Michigan, @Kentucky, @Texas) are better than what anyone else on the bubble has done. Here’s a brief rundown of some of the other contenders:
North Carolina: 1-9 in Q1, already has 10 losses in a weak ACC
SMU: Best win is @ NC State
BYU: 5-8 vs. Q1 and Q2
It’s not a pretty picture.
Last year the bubble was looking weak in February and ended up becoming very strong after an unprecedented 4 bid stealers emerged in conference tournaments. We could see the same thing happen again this year- the American and Missouri Valley look like particularly likely leagues to produce a bid stealers this year.
Men’s Bracketology 2/7/2025
A lot of teams who were around the bubble (BYU, UCF, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Indiana, USC) have lost in recent days. That has opened things up for two bubble teams to rocket up the seed list.
The first is Arkansas, who was nearly off the board a week ago but is now my last team in the field after back to back road wins over Kentucky and Texas. The Razorbacks have 3 Q1A wins- those two and a win over Michigan. They also have done nothing else of note and sport a ghastly 7-8 record against quads 1-3. However, I felt this was a stronger resume than all the mediocre teams in my First Four Out.
The second big riser in this update is San Francisco. The Dons knocked off St. Mary’s last night for their first Q1 win of the season, and have no bad losses to date. The WCC is deep this year, and that plays to their advantage- there are still 3 more Q1 games on their schedule.
One minor note about this bracket- I have Vanderbilt and Arkansas playing each other in a First Four game. While this isn’t ideal to have a conference re-match in the First Four, I have 3 SEC teams headed to Dayton, so I had to match two of them up.
Men’s Bracketology 2/4/2025
The weekend gave us an enormous amount of turnover at the top of the bracket. Since my last update, Florida, Iowa State (2x), Kansas, Houston, Marquette, Kentucky and Michigan State have all lost.
The biggest winner in all of this is Texas A&M. The Aggies beat Texas Tech and Purdue in back to back games in December and those wins have aged brilliantly. Combined with some solid work in SEC play, Buzz Williams’ squad has a chance for their best seed in school history. I’ve moved A&M up to a 2 seed in this update, their highest spot of the season.
The biggest bubble riser recently is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were nearly off the radar after a 6 game losing streak, but picked up back to back wins against Illinois and Oregon to move back into the field.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Tennessee
2: Purdue, Houston, Texas A&M. Florida
3: Marquette, Iowa State, Kentucky, Kansas
4: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Missouri, Texas Tech
5: Oregon, Memphis, Arizona, Ole Miss
6: Michigan, St. John’s, Illinois, Maryland
7: Mississippi State, Louisville, UCLA, St. Mary’s
8: Connecticut, Creighton, Clemson, Oklahoma
9: Utah State, Baylor, Texas, New Mexico
10: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Ohio State, San Diego State
11: Nebraska, (Vanderbilt/BYU), Drake, (Georgia/Wake Forest)
12: UC Irvine, VCU, Arkansas State, Liberty
13: McNeese, Yale, Grand Canyon, Akron
14: Samford, High Point, UNC Wilmington, Lipscomb
15: Northern Colorado, South Dakota State, Cleveland State, Marist
16: Norfolk State, Central Connecticut, (Southern/Bryant), (American/Morehead State)
First Four Out: Arizona State, UCF, SMU, USC
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Indiana, North Carolina, Arkansas
Also Considered: Xavier, VCU, Iowa, Cincinnati, Stanford, Boise State, Santa Clara, LSU
Moving In: Nebraska, BYU, Wake Forest, UNC Wilmington, Morehead State, American, South Dakota State
Moving Out: UCF, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Charleston, Little Rock, Colgate, North Dakota State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/1/2025
Oregon remains one of the hardest teams for me to seed. The Ducks have an incredible 8 Q1 wins- second in the country to Auburn. They also have looked incredibly mediocre in Big 10 play and now have predictive metrics in the 30s. The committee has been kinder than I would’ve expected to these sorts of teams in the past (2022 Providence is a good example), so I have given them some benefit of the doubt and kept them on the 4 line.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Iowa State
2: Florida, Purdue, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Houston, Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas A&M
4: Kansas, Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Oregon
5: Ole Miss, Louisville, Memphis, St. John’s
6: Missouri, Arizona, Texas Tech, Michigan
7: Illinois, Utah State, UCLA, Clemson
8: Maryland, Creighton, Vanderbilt, St. Mary’s
9: Baylor, Gonzaga, Georgia, Pittsburgh
10: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Ohio State
11: Texas, (UCF/San Diego State), (New Mexico/Arizona State), Drake
12: UC Irvine, VCU, McNeese, Liberty
13: Samford, Arkansas State, Yale, Akron
14: Grand Canyon, Lipscomb, Charleston, North Dakota State
15: High Point, Cleveland State, Northern Colorado, Marist
16: Central Connecticut, Norfolk State, (Southern/Little Rock), (Bryant/Colgate)
First Four Out: BYU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Indiana
Next Four Out: SMU, North Carolina, North Texas, Xavier
Also Considered: Stanford, Northwestern, Arkansas, Boise State, LSU, Cincinnati, USC, Penn State
Moving In: Yale
Moving Out: Princeton
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 9
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2
Women’s Bracketology 1/30/2025
It’s been a month since I updated my women’s bracketology, so an update was long overdue. In the women’s tournament, there are three important cutoffs to track:
-Who gets the final 1 seed
-Who gets the final 4 seeds (as these teams get to host the first two rounds)
-Who gets the last bubble spots
On the 1 seed front, South Carolina and UCLA are firmly entrenched on the top line. I opted to give the last two spots to Texas and UConn, although USC and Notre Dame deserve hefty consideration. Like last year, UConn has great predictive metrics but the weak Big East is going to put a lid on their seed.
On the hosting front, I gave Oklahoma and NC State the last spots. It seems likely that the Big Ten, SEC and ACC will each have 4-5 teams host.
On the bubble front, things are a bit weird. I have never seen such a clear bubble as this before- the first 40 teams in my seed list (so the 1 through 10 seeds) are very clearly in the tournament, and then there is a tremendous dropoff from that.
One key difference between the men’s and women’s tournament is that the gap between elite teams and bubble teams is much higher in the women’s game. This leads to a lot of power conference teams with good predictive metrics and mediocre records.
Men’s Bracketology 1/30/2025
The biggest result of the week was Kentucky’s road win at Tennessee. It was Kentucky’s 5th Q1A win of the season and it vaulted them up to the 2 line, taking Tennessee’s spot.
Elsewhere, things are getting dire for North Carolina. The Tar Heels have dropped 3 of 4 with their only win in OT over an awful Boston College team. If they lose both matchups with Duke, they will enter Selection Sunday without a marquee win and a bunch of wins over mediocre ACC teams. They probably need to beat Duke at some point to make the field.
1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Iowa State
2: Florida, Purdue, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Houston, Tennessee, Michigan State, Oregon
4: Texas A&M, Kansas, Mississippi State, Wisconsin
5: Ole Miss, Louisville, Memphis, St. John’s
6: Missouri, Illinois, Arizona, Texas Tech
7: Michigan, Utah State, Clemson, Maryland
8: Creighton, Vanderbilt, UCLA, St. Mary’s
9: Baylor, Gonzaga, Georgia, Pittsburgh
10: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Texas
11: UCF, (San Diego State/Ohio State), (New Mexico/Arizona State), Drake
12: UC Irvine, VCU, McNeese, Liberty
13: Samford, Arkansas State, Grand Canyon, Lipscomb
14: Charleston, Akron, Princeton, North Dakota State
15: High Point, Cleveland State, Northern Colorado, Marist
16: Central Connecticut, Norfolk State, (Southern/Little Rock), (Bryant/Colgate)
First Four Out: BYU, Wake Forest, Indiana, SMU
Next Four Out: North Carolina, North Texas, Nebraska, Xavier
Also Considered: Stanford, Northwestern, Penn State, Arkansas, Boise State, LSU, Cincinnati, USC
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 9
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 1/27/2025
The biggest winner since my last update is clearly Maryland- the Terrapins won back to back road games against Illinois and Indiana. These are their first Q1 wins of the season and the thrashing of Illinois in Champaign is one of the best wins any team in the country has. Maryland has had great computer numbers all season and is starting to build the resume to back it up.
I have Maryland in an 8/9 game playing UConn. In contrast to Maryland, the Huskies are a team going in the wrong direction right now. Their non-conference wins over Baylor and Gonzaga have lost their shine. In a weak Big East, there are not many opportunities left to move the needle. They are one more loss away from a real bubble conversation.
Men’s Bracketology 1/23/2025
Ohio State’s season has been a roller coaster. They looked like a solid tournament team after beating Kentucky over Christmas. They then went 1-4 to start 2025, with the only win being in 2OT over the worst team in the Big Ten. That all changed on Tuesday night with a massive road win at Purdue- their second Q1A win of the year. The Buckeyes move back into the field in this update, although fellow Big Ten teams Nebraska and Maryland fall out.
1: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Iowa State
2: Tennessee, Oregon, Marquette, Kentucky
3: Florida, Kansas, Texas A&M, Michigan State
4: Houston, Purdue, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
5: Memphis, Wisconsin, Louisville, Illinois
6: Michigan, Utah State, West Virginia, UCLA
7: Arizona, Connecticut, St. John’s, Baylor
8: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Georgia, Clemson
9: Creighton, Oklahoma, Missouri, Pittsburgh
10: St. Mary’s, San Diego State, UC Irvine, UCF
11: Vanderbilt, North Carolina, (Arizona State/Ohio State), (Texas/Indiana)
12: Drake, VCU, McNeese, Lipscomb
13: Samford, Yale, Grand Canyon, High Point
14: North Dakota State, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Akron
15: Charleston, Bryant, Northern Colorado, Cleveland State
16: Norfolk State, Quinnipiac, (Colgate/Southern), (Morehead State/LIU)
First Four Out: Maryland, New Mexico, Drake, Arkansas
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Northwestern, Cincinnati, SMU
Also Considered: USC, Nebraska, VCU, Iowa, North Texas, BYU, Xavier, Florida State
Moving In: Texas, Ohio State, Arizona State
Moving Out: New Mexico, Maryland, Nebraska
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 9
ACC: 5
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
Men’s Bracketology 1/20/2025
This is an exciting bracketology update for me because (a) today is my birthday and (b) I am writing this update from India. I will be in Asia for the next three weeks so my bracketology updates will not be as frequent as they normally are this time of year.
As for actual basketball- I think the most impactful result of the last week might be Creighton’s win at UConn. The Bluejays were not in the bubble picture as of Christmas, but picked up a second Q1A win of the year against the Huskies. UConn, meanwhile, has fallen to a 7 seed.
We have one real hope for a low major at-large team this year- the UC Irvine Anteaters. Their Kenpom rating is into the 50s now, and if they go 12-1 or 13-0 down the stretch they will be sitting very pretty for an at-large.
Men’s Bracketology 1/13/2025
Saturday’s big games were highlighted by the top teams in the country surviving road tests. Iowa State, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida all picked up quality wins away from home, solidifying their positions at the top of the bracket. I strongly debated the last two 1 seeds but ultimately Tennessee is the odd team out that fell to the 2 line.
The unprecedented strength of the SEC has been well documented this year. However, this is starting to hurt some of the weaker teams in the conference. Arkansas is a good example- the Hogs have started SEC play 0-3 and are now projected for a 17-14 finish, which is likely not enough to get them into the field. John Calipari’s squad is my first team out today.
1: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Alabama
2: Tennessee, Florida, Marquette, Oregon
3: Kentucky, Kansas, Mississippi State, Memphis
4: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Houston, Purdue
5: Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Utah State
6: Connecticut, Baylor, Ole Miss, Wisconsin
7: St. John’s, Arizona, West Virginia, Maryland
8: Georgia, Louisville, Missouri, Pittsburgh
9: Oklahoma, Nebraska, San Diego State, UCLA
10: North Carolina, Ohio State, Arizona State, Vanderbilt
11: Clemson, (Iowa/New Mexico), (St. Mary’s/Texas Tech), Drake
12: UC Irvine, VCU, McNeese, Liberty
13: Yale, Lipscomb, South Alabama, Grand Canyon
14: Samford, High Point, North Dakota State, Charleston
15: Akron, Purdue Fort Wayne, UMass Lowell, Norfolk State
16: Northern Colorado, Merrimack, (Central Connecticut/Southern), (Bucknell/SIU Edwardsville)
First Four Out: Arkansas, Indiana, UCF, SMU
Next Four Out: Creighton, Cincinnati, Texas, Colorado
Also Considered: Georgetown, BYU, Penn State, Villanova
Moving In: Iowa, New Mexico, VCU, North Dakota State, SIU Edwardsville
Moving Out: Indiana, Arkansas, St. Bonaventure, South Dakota State, Southeast Missouri State
Men’s Bracketology 1/11/2025
Much ink has been spilled about how disappointing the ACC has been this year, but the Big East is arguably worse. I am projecting 3 bids for the Big East, the same as they got last year and a far cry from the 6-7 bids that was the norm for this league in the past. I know that the Big East only has 11 teams while the other power conferences have exploded in size, but it is still a huge step back. Georgetown and Villanova could sneak into the field, but this is going to be a 4 bid league at mots.
A loaded Saturday of college hoops awaits. I’m particularly excited for UC Irvine to play UC San Diego- they are two of the best mid-major teams in the country and UC San Diego has done an impressive job of building a great team in only their fifth year in D1.
Men’s Bracketology 1/4/2025
There aren’t many games over Christmas week, but the week of New Year’s has been busy with plenty of movement in the bracket. Illinois, Memphis and UCLA have all jumped into the protected seed range in this update. Illinois and UCLA notched huge wins over Oregon and Gonzaga and look like the class of the Big Ten. Memphis, meanwhile, is on their way to a strange profile of huge non-conference wins and a slew of games against awful AAC teams.
I’ll be updating my bracket at least weekly for the rest of the season, perhaps twice a week.
