Men’s Bracketology 2/23/2026

A lot of people have said this is a weak bubble. I disagree- the word I would use to describe this bubble is “shallow”. There are only 3 teams outside my current field who I give a 25% chance or more of making the tournament (TCU, USC, Cal) and only 4 more I give a 10-25% chance (VCU, San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall).

On the flip side, we have a whole host of teams in “safe for now, but could screw it up” territory. My 11 seeds all have a 50-70% chance at the field, and my 10 seeds are in the 70-85% range. It feels like there are more teams that can play their way out of the tournament than teams that can play their way in.

This is my first bracket of the year to not feature USC. The Trojans took a Q3 home loss to Oregon which featured some truly awful iso ball on the last few USC possessions. USC needs to go 2-2 to close the season.

Moving In: New Mexico

Moving Out: USC

Bids by Conference:

SEC: 11

Big Ten: 10

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3

Mountain West: 2