Bracketology Bets 2/16/2026

Ohio State to make the tournament +310 (3 units)

I really couldn’t believe this line. Ohio State is my last team in the field right now- a resume average of 52 and a predictive average of 39 is typically right around the cutline. The Buckeyes are probably in with a 3-3 finish and probably out with a 2-4 finish. Kenpom projects them for 2.6 remaining wins. I think this is an overreaction to a close lose to Virginia- they moved from -115 to +310 after that game.

California to miss the tournament -250 (3 units)

This pains me as a Cal fan, but this line is simply too high. Cal is going to be left out if there’s any room for doubt given their awful predictive metrics and awful NCSOS. They have an easy remaining schedule, but I don’t think they’re a slam dunk lock even with a 5-0 finish. A 4-1 finish would give them a small chance, but their most likely outcomes are 3-2 and 2-3.

Santa Clara to make the tournament +130 (1 unit)

Santa Clara was -300 before their game against Gonzaga and moved all the way to +130 after the loss. That loss hurts, don’t get me wrong, but it’s an overreaction. Santa Clara plays St. Mary’s twice more (once in the regular season, and very likely once in the conference tournament). They just need to win one of those games, and avoid bad losses, and they’ll likely be in the field. That’s a bit better than a 50% chance.