Bracketology Bets 1/28/2026

I was very excited to see this morning that DraftKings and FanDuel have listed odds on various teams to make/miss the NCAA tournament. I’ve been waiting for these to pop up for a few weeks now. I made quite a bit betting these lines last year, they’re pretty soft and my knowledge of bracketology is obviously a huge help.

I’ll post picks as I make them here on my website over the next several weeks. I will warn my readers that last year a lot of these opportunities came and went quickly- and some of the best opportunities I saw all season were in the minutes leading into the selection show. So keep your eyes on this space for more picks over the course of the weeks to come.

Texas to miss tournament +310 (4 units)

I don’t get this line. Texas is right on the cut line right now- a resume average of 57 and predictive average of 38 is a classic bubble team. My model thinks they’ll probably make the field at 19-12, are a coin flip to make the field at 18-13, and are pretty unlikely to make it at 17-14. Both KenPom and T-Rank project them for 18-13. This is my favorite line I saw and it’s not close.

USC to make tournament +154 (1 unit)

USC would make the field if it was selected today but their predictive metrics are worse than their resume metrics. This indicates that their position is more likely to worsen than improve over the next two months. However, their predictive metrics aren’t that bad- they’re 50th in Kenpom. 20-11 will get the job done, 19-12 might, and Kenpom projects them for 20-11.

LSU to make tournament +450 (1 unit)

LSU has lost six of seven to fall from in the tournament to out. They’re definitely out of the field if it was selected today, but they have 11 games to make up ground, and 7 of them are against Q1 opposition. Their predictive metrics are all in the mid-40s, which is solid for bubble teams- they definitely can win these Q1 games on their schedule. 20-11 will definitely get them in and 19-12 might.

West Virginia to miss tournament -440 (1 unit)

I think West Virginia’s tournament chances are pretty dead. Their metrics are mostly in the low 60s, which is not close to the field. Their NCSOS is really bad, which means they’re going to have to go on a tear down the stretch to get in. I think they need to go 21-10 to get in, and Kenpom and T-Rank both have them projected at 19-12.