Final 2025 Men’s Bracketology

Selection Sunday is upon us! VCU and Memphis both won today, which means that North Carolina has made it into my final bracket. I don’t feel spectacular about it, but think that North Carolina is the most likely option given their substantial lead over the other contenders in their metric averages. If I had to handicap odds of making the field, it would look something like:

Vanderbilt, Baylor and Arkansas: 95%

Indiana and San Diego State: 80%

North Carolina: 45%

Boise State, Texas and Xavier: 30%

Ohio State: 10%

UC Irvine and Wake Forest: 5%

Enjoy the Selection Show! I’ll be back later this week with my guide on how to fill out your bracket this year.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2: Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Wisconsin

4: Maryland, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue

5: Oregon, Louisville, Michigan, Clemson

6: Ole Miss, BYU, Kansas, St. Mary’s

7: Gonzaga, Illinois, UCLA, Missouri

8: Marquette, Memphis, Creighton, Connecticut

9: Mississippi State, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma

10: West Virginia, Utah State, Drake, Baylor

11: VCU, Arkansas, (Vanderbilt/Indiana), UC San Diego

12: (San Diego State/North Carolina), Colorado State, Liberty, McNeese

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris

15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha

16: Norfolk State, SIUE, (American/Mount St. Mary’s), (Alabama State/St. Francis)

First Four Out: Boise State, Texas, Xavier, Ohio State

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, UC Irvine, Dayton, San Francisco

Final 2025 Women’s Bracketology

I’ve published women’s bracketology in previous years, but 2025 has been my first year publishing predictions regularly throughout the season. I’ve really enjoyed it- it’s a bit different from men’s bracketology, but the added focus on predicting the top 16 is a fun twist.

I think the bubble is pretty clear except for the last spot. I’ve decided to keep Princeton in despite their loss to Harvard- but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Virginia Tech or James Madison hosting either.

Similarly, on the hosting bubble, I feel good about the first 15 hosts and uncertain about the last one. I’ve given Maryland the 16th and final hosting spot for now, but any of my 5 seeds realistically could be there.

Enjoy the Selection Show! I’ve had a lot of fun putting these together throughout the year.

1: South Carolina, UCLA, Texas, USC

2: Connecticut, Notre Dame, TCU, Duke

3: LSU, NC State, Oklahoma, North Carolina

4: Ohio State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Maryland

5: Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa, Baylor

6: Kansas State, West Virginia, Michigan, Oklahoma State

7: Michigan State, Florida State, Illinois, Vanderbilt

8: Utah, California, Louisville, Mississippi State

9: Creighton, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota State

10: Oregon, Richmond, Georgia Tech, Harvard

11: (Washington/Columbia), (Iowa State/Princeton), George Mason, Murray State

12: Grand Canyon, Montana State, Fairfield, FGCU

13: Norfolk State, Green Bay, South Florida, Ball State

14: Liberty, Stephen F. Austin, San Diego State, Lehigh

15: Tennessee Tech, Fairleigh Dickinson, Vermont, Oregon State

16: Arkansas State, UNC Greensboro, (UC San Diego/Southern), (High Point/William & Mary)

First Four Out: Virginia Tech, James Madison, Colorado, Minnesota

Next Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Stanford, Arizona, Belmont

Men’s Bracketology 3/16/2025 AM

Happy Selection Sunday! I will have one final update of my bracketology this evening prior to the Selection Show. I’ll go through my seed list in detail today so I might swap a team or two around this afternoon.

I am going with North Carolina over Boise State for the last spot. In a world in which the committee is only getting more mathematically oriented over time, my gut says that they’ll trust their six metrics, which overwhelmingly say North Carolina should be in the field.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Wisconsin

4: Maryland, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue

5: Oregon, Louisville, Clemson, Ole Miss

6: Michigan, BYU, St. Mary’s, Kansas

7: Illinois, UCLA, Gonzaga, Missouri

8: Marquette, Memphis, Creighton, Connecticut

9: Mississippi State, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma

10: West Virginia, Utah State, Drake, Baylor

11: Arkansas, VCU, (Vanderbilt/San Diego State), UC San Diego

12: (Indiana/North Carolina), Colorado State, McNeese, Liberty

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris

15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha

16: Norfolk State, SIUE, (American/Mount St. Mary’s), (Alabama State/St. Francis)

First Four Out: Boise State, Texas, Xavier, Ohio State

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, UC Irvine, Dayton, San Francisco

Men’s Bracketology 3/15/2025

On Sunday the bubble looked incredibly clear. Ohio State and Xavier were the last two teams in the field, with Boise State, North Carolina and Texas outside the field.

Since then, all hell has broken loose. Ohio State and Xavier lost their opening conference tournament games. Boise State and Colorado State have advanced to the Mountain West final, guaranteeing a bid-stealer (of sorts). North Carolina beat Wake Forest and nearly beat Duke. Texas picked up 2 Q1 wins in the SEC tournament.

The last spot in the field is very unclear right now. I’ve given it to North Carolina for now. The case against them is clear- they only have one Q1 win. However, the committee has become a lot more reliant on their metrics over the years and with a resume average of 44.3 and a predictive average of 31.7 I will say the Tar Heels grab the last spot.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Maryland

4: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue

5: Louisville, Oregon, Clemson, Ole Miss

6: BYU, St. Mary’s, Michigan, Kansas

7: Illinois, UCLA, Gonzaga, Missouri

8: Marquette, Memphis, Creighton, Connecticut

9: Mississippi State, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma

10: West Virginia, Utah State, Drake, Baylor

11: Arkansas, VCU, (Vanderbilt/San Diego State), (Indiana/North Carolina)

12: UC San Diego, Boise State, McNeese, Liberty

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris

15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha

16: Norfolk State, SIUE (American/Jackson State), (Iona/St. Francis)

First Four Out: Texas, Colorado State, Xavier, UC Irvine

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Wake Forest, Dayton, San Francisco

Men’s Bracketology 3/14/2025

Things have gotten interesting around the bubble. We entered Champ Week with a pretty clear at-large cut line. Since then, my last two teams in (Ohio State and Xavier) lost their opening tournament games. North Carolina and Texas have taken their spots in the field. Both of those squads have massive opportunities today (Duke and Tennessee, respectively) and will land pretty firmly on the right side of the bubble with one more win.

I will be keeping a close eye on the Mountain West tournament in the coming days. Boise State and Colorado State are in the semifinals and both hovering just outside the NCAA tournament. I think Colorado State probably needs to win the Mountain West, and Boise State might be able to get away with losing in the final, but it will depend on results elsewhere.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Maryland

4: Purdue, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Clemson

5: Oregon, Arizona, Louisville, Ole Miss

6: Illinois, UCLA, St. Mary’s, BYU

7: Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga, Marquette

8: Missouri, Memphis, Connecticut, Mississippi State

9: Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, Utah State

10: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Drake, Baylor

11: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, (San Diego State/Indiana), VCU

12: UC San Diego, (North Carolina/Texas), McNeese, Liberty

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris

15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha

16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (SIUE/American), (Jackson State/St. Francis)

First Four Out: Boise State, Xavier, Colorado State, UC Irvine

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Wake Forest, Dayton, San Francisco

Men’s Bracketology 3/13/2025

Ohio State capped off a disappointing end to the season by falling to Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. I’m not ready to fully eliminate the Buckeyes like some other people are, but they’re firmly on the outside looking in and I give them about a 15% chance at a bid.

Some huge games on the bubble today as Xavier plays Marquette and North Carolina plays Wake Forest. Xavier is going to be in decent shape (75% tournament odds or so) with a win, while North Carolina needs to win to stay in contention and get their big shot against Duke.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Iowa State

4: Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Clemson

5: Oregon, Louisville, Arizona, Ole Miss

6: Kansas, Illinois, UCLA, St. Mary’s

7: Michigan, Gonzaga, BYU, Memphis

8: Marquette, Missouri, Mississippi State, Connecticut

9: Creighton, New Mexico, Georgia, Oklahoma

10: Utah State, Baylor, West Virginia, Drake

11: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, (San Diego State/Indiana), VCU

12: UC San Diego, (Xavier/North Carolina), McNeese, Liberty

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris

15: Montana, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha

16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (SIUE/American), (Jackson State/St. Francis)

First Four Out: Colorado State, Texas, UC Irvine, Ohio State

Next Four Out: Boise State, Wake Forest, Dayton, San Francisco

Men’s Bracketology 3/12/2025

I went through and re-scrubbed part of the bracket this morning which led to some changes on the 5, 6, 7 and 8 lines. Those teams are all pretty jumbled up, so one result here or there can move teams several places.

Power conference tournaments get started today (I refuse to consider Cal vs. Virginia Tech to be power conference basketball). I’ll be at the Big East tournament for the rest of the week and sending some updates from there.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Iowa State

4: Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Clemson

5: Oregon, Louisville, Arizona, Ole Miss

6: Kansas, Illinois, UCLA, St. Mary’s

7: Michigan, Gonzaga, BYU, Memphis

8: Marquette, Missouri, Mississippi State, Connecticut

9: Creighton, Georgia, New Mexico, West Virginia

10: Vanderbilt, Utah State, Drake, Baylor

11: Oklahoma, Arkansas, (San Diego State/Indiana), VCU

12: UC San Diego, (Ohio State/Xavier), McNeese, Liberty

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon

14: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Northern Colorado

15: Robert Morris, Wofford, Bryant, Omaha

16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (Southern/SIUE), (American/St. Francis)

First Four Out: North Carolina, Colorado State, UC Irvine, Boise State

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Texas, Dayton, San Francisco

Men’s Bracketology 3/10/2024

A few more tickets were punched to the tournament yesterday, but there were no major surprises. Drake removed the drama from their at-large case and won Arch Madness- I think they probably still would’ve gotten in with a loss to Bradley, but we can never know.

The only bubble team in action tonight is San Francisco. The Dons are a long-shot, they’d need to beat Gonzaga tonight and then cross their fingers and hope to get a bid. I think they have a 10% chance or so at an at-large if they win tonight.

Men’s Bracketology 3/9/2024

Here’s my late Saturday night update of my seed list. I’ll give the full seed list a full run-through on Sunday or Monday, but I wanted to get a seed list out there after all of Saturday’s bubble action.

If the tournament started today I would feel quite good about the 68 teams I have in the field. Obviously a lot can change in the next week, but I think the gap between Xavier and Nebraska for the last spot is pretty clear right now.

The bubble is also starting to thin out a bit. Some of our long shot bubble contenders (Cincinnati, SMU) have played their way out of contention. I am pretty hard pressed to think any team outside of my first four out has more than a 10% chance at a bid.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Texas Tech

4: Iowa State, Clemson, Maryland, Purdue

5: Oregon, St. Mary’s, Arizona, Michigan

6: Louisville, UCLA, Missouri, Memphis

7: Illinois, Kansas, Ole Miss, Marquette

8: BYU, Mississippi State, Gonzaga, Connecticut

9: Creighton, Georgia, New Mexico, West Virginia

10: Vanderbilt, Baylor, Utah State, San Diego State

11: Arkansas, (Oklahoma/Indiana), Drake, VCU

12: UC San Diego, (Ohio State/Xavier), McNeese, Liberty

13: High Point, Yale, Akron, Lipscomb

14: Arkansas State, Utah Valley, UNC Wilmington, Northern Colorado

15: Central Connecticut State, Norfolk State, Robert Morris, Omaha

16: Wofford, Southern, (Quinnipiac/SIUE), (Bryant/Bucknell)

First Four Out: Nebraska, North Carolina, Boise State, Colorado State

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Texas, Dayton, San Francisco

Moving In: Xavier, Wofford, Omaha, SIUE

Moving Out: Boise State, UNC Greensboro, South Dakota State, Southeast Missouri State

Removed from Consideration: Cincinnati, SMU

Men’s Bracketology 3/7/2025

The last weekend of the regular season is upon us. All bubble teams have one regular season game left- while some have huge opportunities (North Carolina vs. Duke), others will face off in what could be a de facto play-in game (Ohio State vs. Indiana).

Overall bubble teams have had a strong few days and this has shrunk the list of potential at-large contenders. Northwestern, TCU and Utah have left my under consideration list, and they are likely to be joined by a few more teams after the weekend.

Men’s Bracketology 3/5/2025

Tuesday night was the best bubble action we’ve had all season. Several teams got important wins- Ohio State won a dramatic 2OT game against Nebraska, Arkansas dominated Vanderbilt, and Texas nearly choked to Mississippi State but held on in OT.

I am willing to lock my first 36 teams into the field- so that’s everyone on the 1-9 lines. The next five teams are all in pretty good shape (80%+ to make the tournament), and then we get to the true bubble.

1: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Tennessee

2: Alabama, Florida, Michigan State, St. John’s

3: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Texas Tech

4: Purdue, Iowa State, Michigan, Clemson

5: Arizona, Oregon, Missouri, St. Mary’s

6: Marquette, Maryland, Louisville, Memphis

7: UCLA, BYU, Ole Miss, Illinois

8: Mississippi State, Kansas, Gonzaga, Creighton

9: Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Georgia, New Mexico

10: West Virginia, Baylor, Utah State, VCU

11: San Diego State, Drake, Ohio State, (Arkansas/Indiana)

12: (Oklahoma/Boise State), UC San Diego, McNeese, Liberty

13: High Point, Yale, Akron, Lipscomb

14: Arkansas State, Utah Valley, UNC Greensboro, UNC Wilmington

15: South Dakota State, Northern Colorado, Central Connecticut State, Norfolk State

16: Robert Morris, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/Bucknell)

First Four Out: North Carolina, Xavier, Texas, Nebraska

Still Alive: Cincinnati, Wake Forest, SMU, San Francisco, Colorado State

Women’s Bracketology 3/5/2025

The final weekend of the regular season saw lots of movement along the hosting bubble. North Carolina and Tennessee took disastrous home losses, but I kept both in the top 16 as lots of other hosting contenders (Alabama, Kansas State, Baylor) lost.

On the tournament bubble, Washington knocked off Oregon to continue their winning streak and move safely into the field. Princeton moved into the field after beating Harvard, at the expense of Minnesota. The Gophers are now 2-10 in Q1+Q2 which is simply untenable for an at-large bid. I made one more swap on the bubble- I moved Virginia Tech in for Colorado after the Buffs lost a Q3 game to Texas Tech.

Men’s Bracketology 3/3/2025

We’re finally starting to see some bubble teams play their way into the bracket. Chief among them is Georgia- in the last week, the Bulldogs have gone from outside the field to a 9 seed with a huge win over Florida and then a dominating road win at Texas.

Xavier also got a huge win over the weekend against Creighton and is now my last team in the field. They take Nebraska’s place in the bracket- the Huskers fall out after a disastrous home loss to Minnesota.

I’ll be updating my bracketology more frequently now as we get closer to Selection Sunday- expect 3 or 4 updates this week.

Women’s Bracketology 2/28/2025

The bracket is getting more set in stone as all power conference teams have only one regular season game left on their schedule. Every team on my top 10 seed lines is a lock or very close to it, and the pool of potential at-large teams is shrinking rapidly.

The biggest riser since my last update is Washington, who vaulted into the field after road wins over Nebraska and Minnesota. If the Huskies knock off Oregon this weekend they’re in very good shape for a bid.

The biggest faller since my last update is Notre Dame who dropped back to back games against NC State and Florida State. Notre Dame’s path to a 1 seed looks pretty narrow now, they’d need to win the ACC tournament and have USC slip up.

Bracketology 2/28/2025

We are finally starting to see some bubble teams pick up good wins. In the last 2 days, Ohio State got a Q1 road win at USC, Boise State knocked off Utah State, and San Francisco won at Oregon State.

I moved Ohio State into the field, replacing a Wake Forest team that is nearly eliminated after an awful loss to Virginia. Boise State and San Francisco, meanwhile, will both likely move into the field if they win their next game.

1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Houston

2: Tennessee, Florida, Michigan State, Wisconsin

3: Iowa State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, St. John’s

4: Michigan, Arizona, Missouri, Purdue

5: Texas Tech, Clemson, Oregon, St. Mary’s

6: Mississippi State, UCLA, Marquette, Maryland

7: Kansas, Louisville, Memphis, Ole Miss

8: BYU, Creighton, Gonzaga, Illinois

9: Connecticut, Utah State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico

10: San Diego State, West Virginia, Drake, Nebraska

11: Baylor, Arkansas, VCU, UC San Diego

12: (Oklahoma/Ohio State), (Georgia/Indiana), Liberty, McNeese

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Arkansas State

14: Lipscomb, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado

15: South Dakota State, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Towson

16: Norfolk State, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/Bucknell)

First Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas

Next Four Out: San Francisco, Xavier, SMU, Wake Forest

Not Eliminated: TCU, Colorado State, UCF, Northwestern, Arizona State, Utah

Moving In: Ohio State, Bucknell

Moving Out: Wake Forest, American

Bracketology 2/26/2025

Georgia gave up a 25 point lead at home against Florida yesterday, but managed to hold on to pick up their biggest win of the season. This moves the Bulldogs into the field- their resume average of 42.7 and predictive average of 38 are pretty comfortably better than the rest of the bubble.

I already took Florida off of the 1 line over the weekend, but the combination of their loss and Houston’s win at Texas Tech leave them pretty far back of the Cougars now.

1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Houston

2: Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, Michigan State

3: Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kentucky, St. John’s

4: Michigan, Arizona, Missouri, Purdue

5: Texas Tech, Clemson, Oregon, St. Mary’s

6: Mississippi State, Maryland, UCLA, Marquette

7: Kansas, Ole Miss, Louisville, Memphis

8: Creighton, Utah State, BYU, Gonzaga

9: Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, San Diego State

10: Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Drake

11: Nebraska, Baylor, VCU, UC San Diego

12: (Georgia/Wake Forest), (Arkansas/Indiana), Liberty, McNeese

13: Yale, High Point, Akron, Arkansas State

14: Lipscomb, Utah Valley, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado

15: South Dakota State, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Norfolk State

16: Towson, Southern, (Southeast Missouri State/Quinnipiac), (Bryant/American)

First Four Out: Texas, Ohio State, North Carolina, Boise State

Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Xavier, SMU, San Francisco

Not Eliminated: TCU, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah, UCF, Kansas State, Northwestern, Rutgers

Bracketology 2/24/2025

Changes abound up and down the seed list after a hectic weekend. Some of the most notable decisions I made include:

1) I moved Tennessee back up to the 1 line after their road win at Texas A&M. Tennessee’s depth of quality wins (9 Q1, 6 Q1A) gave them the nod over Florida for the last 1 seed. Houston will be right in that conversation as well if they knock off Texas Tech tonight.

2) I moved Ohio State out of the field. This would’ve been pretty unthinkable a few weeks ago but the Buckeyes were blown out at home by Northwestern and at 15-13, they are going to need to go 2-1 in their remaining games to have a chance at an at-large.

3) I moved Purdue down to the 5 line. The Boilermakers were a 2 seed just over a week ago but have dropped 3 straight. I gave my last protected seed to Missouri instead of Purdue- The Tigers’ two wins over possible 1 seeds put them over the line.

Note that I had to move BYU all the way down to an 11 seed to satisfy bracketing principles. I have the Cougars at #31 on my seed list but since they don’t play on Sunday, there were no available spots for them on the 8, 9 or 10 lines.

Men’s Bracketology 2/21/2025

Ohio State and Nebraska were both well on their way to an at-large bid, but both took blowout losses to non-tournament teams this week. I’ve dropped them both to the 10 line- but this year’s bubble is too weak to drop either of them out of the field.

Hopes continue to grow for mid-major at-large teams this year. Drake is in decent shape for a bid even after their recent loss to Bradley. In the A10, VCU will get in if they win the rest of their regular season games and I think UC San Diego will as well.

1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Florida

2: Tennessee, Houston, Wisconsin, Texas A&M

3: Iowa State, Purdue, Michigan, Kentucky

4: Arizona, Michigan State, Missouri, Texas Tech

5: Mississippi State, Marquette, St. John’s, Ole Miss

6: Maryland, Louisville, UCLA, Kansas

7: St. Mary’s, Oregon, Memphis, Clemson

8: Illinois, Creighton, Utah State, Baylor

9: New Mexico, Connecticut, Gonzaga, BYU

10: San Diego State, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Ohio State

11: Vanderbilt, Drake, VCU, (West Virginia/Texas)

12: (SMU/Arkansas), UC San Diego, Liberty, McNeese

13: Yale, Akron, High Point, Arkansas State

14: Utah Valley, Lipscomb, Chattanooga, Northern Colorado

15: Central Connecticut State, Norfolk State, Towson, Cleveland State

16: Southern, Bryant, (Quinnipiac/Southeast Missouri), (Omaha/American)

First Four Out: Oklahoma, George Mason, TCU, Georgia

Next Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Xavier, Indiana

Also Considered: San Francisco, UC Irvine, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Utah, Kansas State, USC

Women’s Bracketology 2/20/2025

I pity whichever 1 seed gets Connecticut in their region. The Huskies are now joint favorites to win the national title with South Carolina at +320. However, they’re still quite unlikely to get a 1 seed- the Big East provides very few quality opportunities and thus they only have 4 Q1 wins.

On the bubble, things continue to be pretty static. I moved George Mason into the field in this update as they continue to pile up wins. The power conference teams on the outside looking in all have opportunities to move the needle in the next few weeks but look unlikely to take them.

Men’s Bracketology 2/19/2025

It’s been almost a week since I updated my bracketology- I’ve been travelling in the past week- so there’s a lot of changes in this update. Some of the most impactful changes are:

1. BYU has been on the bubble or outside the field all season and is now very likely to make the tournament after back to back wins over Kansas State and Kansas. They dominated the Jayhawks by 34 last night and their predictive metrics are now in the low 30s.

2. TCU has come out of absolutely nowhere to swoop into my First Four Out. It goes to show how weak the underside of this bubble is that the Horned Frogs are in contention- but as winners of 5 of 6, including a huge Q1A win over Texas Tech last night, they are in the thick of things.

3. The bubble is very weak this year and the middle of the bracket is very strong. The first 38 or so teams on my seed list (my 1-9 seeds, Ohio State and BYU) are all exceedingly likely to make the field. There is a big gulf between those teams and the rest of the seed list.