College Football Picks Week 5 202
Last week went quite well. My spread picks went 4-2 and I hit Miami (OH) ML +235 as well. The week was almost even better as I had Bowling Green +30.5 and they lost by 31, I think some people may have gotten the Falcons at +31 and pushed. I’m back in the black for the year, which I did not think was going to happen after my horrible week 1.
Astute readers may remember that in addition to the picks you see below, I also have 1 unit on NC State +10 against Clemson, I bet that line back in August and it is now +6.5.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
Week 4: +5.44 units
2022 Total: +0.09 units
Louisiana Monroe @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 6 PM)
I have a soft spot for Louisiana Monroe as I made a lot of money betting on the Warhawks in 2019. We did not learn much about them in their first 3 games as they predictably lost big to Alabama and Texas and beat Nicholls State. They got a huge win over Louisiana last week though, and I don’t see why they’re such big underdogs here. I think ULM is a very marginally better team as they have a more talented roster and have a real result this season unlike Arkansas State.
UL Monroe +7.5 -110 (3 units)
UL Monroe ML +245 (1 unit)
UTEP @ Charlotte (Saturday, 5 PM)
I’m no stranger to betting on UTEP, this will be my third game bet on the Miners this year in addition to their preseason win total. I missed out on betting on them last week which was a shame as they beat Boise State outright as a 17 point underdog. Charlotte was abysmal to start the season but has improved since getting QB Chris Reynolds back from injury. This line opened at PK and I’m kicking myself that I didn’t get that price, although I still think UTEP is a much better team and like them a lot at -3.
UTEP -3 -110 (3 units)
LSU @ Auburn (Saturday, 6 PM)
My ratings are all over LSU as the Tigers have soared to #5 despite not even sniffing the AP Poll. Other computer ratings agree as the Tigers are hanging out at or near the top 10 in most other ratings systems. Auburn, meanwhile, has been even more of a trainwreck than I expected. They got wiped off the field by Penn State and only beat Missouri through one of the stupidest finishes to a football game I’ve seen. That win may have saved HC Bryan Harsin’s job for now, but you have to imagine his time in the job is limited now. While this game is famous for strange things occurring, I think LSU will roll here.
LSU -8.5 -110 (3 units)
Liberty @ Old Dominion (Saturday, 5 PM)
This is a really interesting game between Virginia’s two G5 teams, I’m happy they scheduled each other and look forward to this developing into a rivalry. Liberty was really disappointing last year but is a missed 2 point conversion against Wake Forest away from being 4-0. Old Dominion grabbed headlines with their win over Virginia Tech in week 1, but it was very fluky and it seems it’s more the case that Virginia Tech is horrible than ODU is any good. I think Liberty should be a decent favorite here.
Liberty -1.5 -110 (3 units)
Illinois @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 11 AM)
Kansas is the biggest surprise in the Power Five, but Illinois might be second. The Fighting Illini are 2-1 and they outplayed Indiana in their loss and were the victims of some questionable refereeing. Ohio State treated Wisconsin like a MAC team last week and if I were to remove preseason priors from my ratings, Wisconsin would be a 4-8 type team. I wouldn’t have given Illinois a chance in this game in the offseason but I don’t think this line has moved enough given what we’ve learned about these teams in September.
Illinois +7 -110 (2 units)
Illinois ML +225 (1 unit)
Michigan State @ Maryland (Saturday, 2:30 PM)
It pains me to say it as a Michigan State fan, but the Spartans have been horrible this year. They were completely uncompetitive in losses to Washington and Minnesota, the final score was flattering in both cases. I’ve been high on Maryland all season and their last two weeks have been very good. They posted 8 yards per play against a good SMU team and then hung with Michigan despite a horrible special teams error to start the game. The Terps have supplanted MSU as the 4th best team in the Big Ten East.
Maryland -7 -110 (2 units)
UL Monroe ML/Illinois ML +973 (0.2 units)
College Football Ratings Week 4 2022
Week 3 saw one legitimate playoff contender lose (Oklahoma) and two more come very close to it (Clemson and USC). I still think that there’s a large gap between the top 3 teams and everyone else, most of the drama in the coming weeks will lie in the 4th through 10th area as it was last week.
Top 25
Ohio State (+1)
Georgia (-1)
Alabama
Michigan
LSU (+2)
Minnesota (+10)
Oklahoma (-2)
Utah
Tennessee (-3)
Texas (+10)
Cincinnati (-2)
Purdue (-2)
Maryland (+1)
NC State (-2)
Oregon (+9)
Oklahoma State (-5)
Mississippi State
USC (+16)
Penn State (-4)
Kansas State (+15)
Florida State (+5)
Arkansas (-2)
Ole Miss (-1)
Texas A&M (-11)
Oregon State (-6)
For the first time this season, we have a new #1 in my ratings as Ohio State treated Wisconsin like an FCS team in a blowout win. Minnesota is flying up the rankings after demolishing Michigan State- I believe this is the Gophers’ highest ever place in my ratings. We now have enough data that I’ve reduced the weight of my preseason ratings, no team is a bigger beneficiary of this than USC who rises into my top 25 for the first time all season.
Moving Up
The biggest week-over-week gain this season belongs to Middle Tennessee (108th → 63rd). The Blue Raiders were viewed as a middling CUSA team before they destroyed Miami in a game that was not even as close as its 16 point margin indicates. The only team to beat MTSU this year is James Madison (70th → 35th) who, like USC, benefitted a lot from de-emphasizing preseason results. The Dukes are one of only two undefeated G5 teams left in the country. Kent State (101st → 62nd) played Georgia shockingly close and opens MAC play next week as the possible conference favorites.
Moving Down
It’s one thing to lose to Ohio State, but it’s another thing to get completely vaporized like Wisconsin (27th → 71st) did. The final score of 52-21 doesn’t look horrible, but Wisconsin scored all their points in garbage time and Ohio State pulled the starters early. Boise State (49th → 82nd) looks to have their worst team in over a decade after they lost to UTEP as a 17 point favorite. Virginia Tech (76th → 98th) might be one of the worst teams in the Power Five as the Hokies got killed at home by a mediocre West Virginia team.
College Football Ratings Week 3 2022
Week 3 was not as exciting as week 2, with fewer big upsets and less movement at the top. In an interesting twist, most of the notable results were out west where some Pac-12 teams established themselves as legitimate league contenders (Washington and Oregon) while others flamed out to the point that their coach was fired (Arizona State).
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State
Alabama
Michigan
Oklahoma (+1)
Tennessee (+1)
LSU (+11)
Utah (+2)
Cincinnati (+2)
Purdue (+2)
Oklahoma State (+2)
NC State (-4)
Texas A&M (+1)
Maryland (+18)
Penn State (+15)
Minnesota (+3)
Mississippi State (-12)
Miami (-2)
Oregon State (-2)
Arkansas (-5)
Texas (+4)
Ole Miss (+1)
Pittsburgh (+5)
Oregon (+26)
Notre Dame (-4)
Many will be surprised to see LSU all the way up in the top 10. The Tigers are not even sniffing the AP Poll right now, but I was very impressed with how they dismantled a good Mississippi State team. I am pretty sure my model is the only thing on planet earth that considers 1-2 Purdue a top 10 team. The Boilermakers “deserve” to have around 2.5 wins as they outplayed both Penn State and Syracuse in their two losses. Maryland also rose a lot after their win over SMU. While the game was close, Maryland was the far more efficient team averaging almost 7 yards per play. Penn State is in my top 25 for the first time all year after a dominating road win against Auburn.
Moving Up
I completely wrote off Oregon (50th → 24th) after they were demolished by Georgia in Week 1. As time passes, it looks like Georgia may actually just be an NFL team in disguise as opposed to Oregon being fraudulent. Eastern Michigan (112th → 94th) pulled off one of their biggest wins in program history on the road at Arizona State and could possibly contend for the MAC championship. Washington State (54th → 39th) dropped the hammer on a bad Colorado State team and brings their 3-0 record to a matchup with Oregon this weekend.
Moving Down
South Carolina (33rd → 66th) was absolutely vaporized by Georgia. The Gamecocks have been quite disappointing so far this year and they will struggle to get back to a bowl. I was hyping up BYU (9th → 28th) as a possible playoff team a week ago and that has been stopped dead in its tracks after a blowout loss to Oregon. It is only a matter of time until Auburn (31st → 48th) joins Arizona State (26th → 43rd) in a mid-season coach firing, a loss this weekend to Missouri could do the trick.
College Football Picks Week 4 2022
I’m a bit annoyed about last week as it feels like my process far outperformed my results. Western Kentucky really bungled the ending of their game and should have won outright. Temple came very close to winning as a +625 dog, and South Florida nearly won as a 24.5 point underdog. Admittedly, I was quite wrong on BYU and Fresno State but the week went well overall.
Preseason: +1.48 units
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -12.86 units*
Week 2: +5.87 units
Week 3: +1.66 units
2022 Total: -5.35 units
*My week 1 result is actually -12.86 units, not -14.93 units as I previously reported- I found an error in my tracking spreadsheet.
Duke @ Kansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
You might’ve noticed that I now have winnings in the “preseason” line item of my bets. That’s because I bet on Kansas over 2.5 wins, and the Jayhawks have already cashed the over after a 3-0 start. I was bullish on Lance Leipold’s squad in the preseason but they have surpassed even my expectations and I think they could make it to a bowl. These teams are both a surprising 3-0 but Kansas has beaten much better teams to get here and the talent level on their roster is considerably higher than Duke’s.
Kansas -7 -110 (4 units)
Miami (OH) @ Northwestern (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Miami has been a remarkably mediocre MAC team for the last few years, consistently hanging out around the .500 mark in the last few years. Northwestern, meanwhile, is anything but mediocre. The Wildcats beat Nebraska in week 0 (a win that only looks worse as time passes) and have gotten whacked by Duke and Southern Illinois since then. Northwestern got straight up outplayed by an FCS team at home last week and I’m not convinced they’re much better than a veteran Miami team.
Miami (OH) +7.5 -110 (3 units)
Miami (OH) ML +235 (1 unit)
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Bowling Green has had a strange start to the season, losing to FCS Eastern Kentucky and then beating Marshall (who had beaten Notre Dame the previous week). The Falcons have an experienced squad that returns 18 starters from last year’s team that beat Minnesota as a 31 point underdog. Mississippi State is a good team, I think they’re a top 25 squad and will hang with Alabama and Georgia as well as most SEC teams. However, this is a pretty big number for them against a competent Bowling Green team.
Bowling Green +30.5 -110 (3 units)
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
There are not many teams in college football that have been more disappointing than Buffalo. The Bulls were viewed as a possible bowl team in the preseason with their win total at 5.5, but they are 0-3 with a loss to FCS Holy Cross. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, got a signature win on the road at Arizona State last week which led to the firing of Sun Devils HC Herm Edwards. I don’t understand this line at all, I thought these teams were similar in the preseason and EMU has been far better since then.
Eastern Michigan -6 -110 (3 units)
Northern Illinois @ Kentucky (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Kentucky has risen rapidly in the polls after a win over Florida and is now ranked #8 in the AP Poll. I think this is pretty overdone and rank the Wildcats around 30th. Northern Illinois has been a very interesting team in the last year as they’ve won an exceedingly high number of close games. This one probably won’t be close, but the defending MAC champions have more talent than most G5 teams and I think Kentucky is a bit overrated.
Northern Illinois +26.5 -110 (2 units)
Indiana @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I bet against Indiana last week when they played Western Kentucky and will be doing so again here. The Hoosiers are the most fraudulent 3-0 team in the country. They got outplayed by both Illinois and Western Kentucky and could have lost to a bad Idaho team as well. Cincinnati is still the best G5 team in the country, and I expect them to roll in this game.
Cincinnati -16.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 3 2022
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -14.93 units
Week 2: +5.87 units
2022 Total: -10.56 units
Last week was a nice bounce back from week 1. I was particularly happy to hit Kansas ML +380 against West Virginia, as that’s a big help for my Kansas over 2.5 wins ticket as well.
Western Kentucky @ Indiana (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I highlighted Western Kentucky as one of my Group of Five teams to watch in my preseason preview. They’re off to a 2-0 start with wins over two truly bad teams. Indiana, meanwhile, struggled to get past an awful Idaho team last week. These two teams played at WKU last year and I was in attendance, the Hilltoppers far outplayed the Hoosiers and were very unlucky to loes. Indiana might be the worst team in the Big Ten and should not be a touchdown favorite here.
Western Kentucky +7 +100 (4 units)
Western Kentucky ML +200 (1 unit)
Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Ole Miss has not been challenged in two easy wins against outmatched opponents. We also haven’t learned much about Georgia Tech as they played one FCS team and Clemson. I think that the Yellow Jackets are one of the worst teams in the Power Five and will likely be betting against them quite a bit in the coming weeks. They’re the least talented team in the ACC (aside from maybe Duke) and were absolutely horrible down the stretch last year. I think Ole Miss will win easily here.
Ole Miss -14.5 -110 (3 units)
BYU @ Oregon (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
BYU has been very impressive so far this season, destroying South Florida and beating a good Baylor team last week. The Cougars are up to 12th in the AP Poll and 9th in my ratings, and I think they have a great chance at the playoff if they win out. Oregon’s talent deficiencies were exposed in their week 1 drubbing at the hands of Georgia. Oregon’s lines are strong but their skill position talent is awful. BYU has the more experienced team and probably the more talented one as well.
BYU +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Rutgers @ Temple (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
There’s no sugarcoating it, Temple is really bad. I bet on the Owls in week 1 against Duke and they really disappointed me as they lost 30-0. In the preseason I would’ve thought this game would be a tossup, but Temple has been horrible and Rutgers has been surprisingly decent. However, I think this line is an overreaction. Rutgers does have a pulse this year but you could count on one hand the number of FBS teams that they should be a 17.5 point road favorite against. Temple is bad, but Rutgers is simply getting too many points here.
Temple +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Temple ML +625 (1 unit)
Fresno State @ USC (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
I have a lot of short exposure to USC already between their win total (under 9.5) as well as various individual game bets. I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was getting a bit worried as the Trojans have been quite impressive through two games. However, I think that might end here as Fresno State has a phenomenal QB in Jake Haener and he’s surrounded by one of the best rosters in the Group of Five. This game is going to be a track meet (the total is a whopping 74) but I think Fresno can trade punches with USC for long enough to hang in there.
Fresno State +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Fresno State ML +380 (1 unit)
South Florida @ Florida (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Florida came back down to earth last week against Kentucky, losing by 10 as a 7 point favorite. Their offense never really got out of first gear and prized QB Anthony Richardson threw a brutal pick six. I don’t doubt that the Gators have plenty of talent on the roster but they’re still pretty young and coach Billy Napier has been blunt about the fact that it’ll take some time for the pieces to come together. South Florida won’t come close to winning this game but they can hang in there enough to cover this spread.
South Florida +24.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Temple ML +2075 (0.2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Fresno State ML +1364 (0.2 units)
Temple ML/Fresno State ML +3380 (0.2 units)
Western Kentucky ML/Temple ML/Fresno State ML +10514 (0.1 units)
College Football Ratings Week 2 2022
Week 2 was the most enjoyable September football Saturday I can remember. I have been hyping up the Sun Belt all offseason and it paid off yesterday as Marshall, App State and Georgia Southern all pulled off huge wins. Even when the favorites won, the games were great, from Alabama/Texas at noon to Baylor/BYU and Oregon State/Fresno State in the nightcap.
Top 25
Georgia
Ohio State (+1)
Alabama (-1)
Michigan
Mississippi State (+1)
Oklahoma (-1)
Tennessee
NC State (+2)
BYU
Utah (+2)
Cincinnati (+2)
Purdue (+7)
Oklahoma State (+2)
Texas A&M (-3)
Arkansas (-1)
Miami (+2)
Oregon State
LSU (+9)
Minnesota (+4)
UCLA
Notre Dame (-13)
Wisconsin (-6)
Ole Miss (-1)
Florida State (+2)
Texas (+23)
Michigan remains in 4th but the gap between them and the top 3 has shrunk a bit after a complete demolition of Hawai’i that sent the Rainbow Warriors to last place in my ratings. I was surprised to see Purdue in 12th, but my model sees a team that outplayed Penn State in week 1 and beat the brakes off Indiana State. The Boilermakers have an interesting matchup against a surprising Syracuse team this week. I think that the Big Ten West could come down to them and Minnesota who has demolished two bad teams so far this year.
Moving Up
It’s not surprising that Marshall (88th → 63rd) is the biggest riser in my ratings after their huge win over Notre Dame. The Thundering Herd are a bit unlike other G5 teams as they have tons of players who were good recruits and transferred to Marshall from Power Five schools. Texas (48th → 25th) is the rare team to show up in this category after a loss, but losses don’t get much “better” than a 1 point loss to Alabama. The Longhorns do need to look out though as they face a trip from a pesky UTSA team this coming weekend.
Moving Down
Notre Dame (8th → 21st) has predictably fallen quite a bit. It could be a bumpy road for the Irish as they face North Carolina and BYU away from home in their coming games. Virginia (68th → 82nd) got waxed by Illinois in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates. I don’t really know what’s going on with Coastal Carolina (81st → 96th) as they struggled to get past FCS Gardner-Webb, a far cry from their recent 10 win seasons.
College Football Ratings: Week 1 2022
In addition to my weekly picks this year, I’m also going to post my model’s ratings each week along with some commentary about them. I did this back in 2019 and 2020, but I only published my top 25. This year, in addition to publishing my top 25, I’ll also highlight which teams are rising and falling in my ratings.
Top 25
The number in parenthesis indicates a team’s ranking movement since last week.
Georgia
Alabama
Ohio State
Michigan (+3)
Oklahoma (+6)
Mississippi State (+6)
Tennessee (+1)
Notre Dame (-2)
BYU (+6)
NC State (-5)
Texas A&M (-2)
Utah (-8)
Cincinnati (+1)
Arkansas (-1)
Oklahoma State (-5)
Wisconsin
Oregon State (+3)
Miami (+10)
Purdue (+3)
UCLA (+3)
Pittsburgh
Ole Miss (+10)
Minnesota (+2)
Clemson (-7)
Arizona State (-6)
I was really impressed with Mississippi State in week 1 as they trucked a good Memphis team. Spots 4 through 30 are still very fluid in my ratings so the Bulldogs were able to rise all the way from 12th to 6th. BYU demolished South Florida and could present an interesting case for the playoff committee. The Broncos have games against Arkansas, Baylor, Notre Dame and Boise State, among others. If they do run the table they have the schedule strength to make the playoff. Oregon State had a fantastic win at home against Boise State and looks like they might be the best team in the Pac-12 North.
Moving Up
This list is heavy on teams that I bet against last week who proved me wrong. Most notable among them is Florida (60th → 38th) who beat Utah at home. I don’t have the Gators jumping up nearly as much as the AP Poll (which has them 12th) and I make them a 4 point favorite at home against Kentucky this week. Other than Georgia, I was much lower on the SEC East than the consensus this preseason and South Carolina (49th → 32nd) is another team that proved me wrong in week 1. The Gamecocks have a huge pair of games coming up with a trip to Arkansas and a visit from Georgia in the next two weeks, a split would be a great result.
I also bet against SMU (54th → 33rd) and they demolished North Texas on the road. I have the Mustangs second in the American now behind Cincinnati. James Madison (92nd → 75th) played their first game as an FBS member and absolutely pulverized Middle Tennessee. I was shocked to see Syracuse (44th → 29th) knocking on the door of my top 25. The Orange demolished Louisville as a 3.5 point home underdog, time will tell whether Syracuse is unexpectedly good, Louisville is unexpectedly bad, or both.
Moving Down
Unsurprisingly, a lot of the teams on this list lost to teams in the moving up section. Georgia State (30th → 50th), Louisville (27th → 46th) and North Texas (65th → 83rd) all fit the bill. More interesting to me is Iowa (38th → 54th) who beat South Dakota State in a horrific 7-3 game. I was already low on Iowa’s offense but even I was surprised by how awful it was. The Hawkeyes host Iowa State this week and I make them a 6 point favorite, you may not be able to set a total low enough on that game.
College Football Picks Week 2
Week 0: -1.5 units
Week 1: -14.93 units
Week 1 got off to a nice start on Friday as Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech in the week’s only G5 over P5 upset. It was all downhill from there though as Saturday was an 0-6 bloodbath with North Texas, Texas State and Rice all nowhere close to covering. On to the next week.
New Mexico State @ UTEP (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
This is a big rivalry game as UTEP is much closer to New Mexico State than it is to any of the FBS schools in Texas. Unfortunately, the Miners just missed covering last week against Oklahoma and are off to an 0-2 start. However, I think they’ll rebound here as the gap between these two teams is absolutely massive. UTEP has a real quarterback and a few decent recruits on the roster, while New Mexico State has a washed up coach in Jerry Kill and an army of crappy junior college players. These teams were even years ago but UTEP has pulled way ahead.
UTEP -14 (3 units)
North Carolina @ Georgia State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
North Carolina beat Appalachian State 63-61 last weekend in what was the clear best game of the weekend. The Tar Heels are going to put up points against people all year but DC Gene Chizik has his work cut out for him on the other end of the field. I was disappointed in Georgia State last week as they dropped a winnable game to South Carolina. However, I think they’ll be able to move the ball against UNC and should cover in another track meet.
Georgia State +7.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia State ML +240 (1 unit)
Kansas @ West Virginia (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
Kansas made quick work of Tennessee Tech last weekend. That might not sound like much, but for a program that has lost as many FCS games as the Jayhawks in recent years, it is a big step up. It would be another big step up for them to knock off a conference opponent this weekend in West Virginia. The Mountaineers nearly beat Pitt in week 1 but some late interceptions from QB JT Daniels doomed them. As I noted in my season preview I think the gap between Kansas and the rest of the Big 12 has closed a bit and fancy their chances in this matchup.
Kansas +13 -110 (2 units)
Kansas ML +380 (1 unit)
Boise State @ New Mexico (Friday, 8 PM Central)
The standard at Boise State is extremely high, with conference titles and occasional BCS bowls the norm. Andy Avalos is in his second year as head coach and people are starting to ask questions of him as the Broncos went 7-5 last year and got blown out by Oregon State in week 1. I share some of these doubts, but this line is still a bit ridiculous. Boise is the most talented team in the Mountain West by a large margin and New Mexico might not even have a single 3 star on the roster. Even a Broncos team that is far from their past heights should take care of the Lobos.
Boise State -16.5 -110 (2 units)
Boston College @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
This is going to be the rare case where I bet against a team one week and bet on them the next. Both of these teams were extreme disappointments in week 1, as Boston College lost as a big favorite to Rutgers and Virginia Tech lost to Old Dominion. The underlying fundamentals of Virginia Tech’s loss were pretty weird though, they had a botched field goal returned for a TD among other things. Boston College, meanwhile, just got straight up beat at home by a bad Rutgers team. I think this is an overreaction to Virginia Tech’s loss and think they bounce back here.
Virginia Tech -3 -110 (2 units)
Ohio @ Penn State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Ohio had their worst year in a decade in 2021 but looked much improved last week in a win over Florida Atlantic. Sean Clifford was up and down for Penn State agianst Purdue, throwing a backbreaking pick 6 before responding with a heroic TD drive. Penn State is around the 30th best team in the country, they’re healthy favorites here but Ohio is a plucky enough team that this line is around a touchdown too fat in favor of PSU.
Ohio +24.5 -110 (1 unit)
Kansas ML/Georgia State ML +1532 (0.2 units)
College Football Picks Week 1
Week 0: -1.5 units
Last week was just the appetizer, the main course of college football begins this weekend. Notre Dame @ Ohio State is the headline matchup but there are loads of interesting games across the country this weekend.
Utah @ Florida (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
This is another pick that runs in tandem with my preseason bets. I bet Utah to win the Pac-12 at +240 and also bet Florida under 7 wins. Utah solidly belongs in the second tier of teams this year, far behind Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia but on par with the likes of Michigan, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. Florida has a great QB in Anthony Richardson but the rest of their skill talent is quite a bit worse than Utah’s which is a bit shocking given the Gators’ usual recruiting standard.
Utah -2.5 -115 (4 units)
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion (Friday, 6 PM Central)
When these teams met here four years ago, Virginia Tech was ranked 13th in the country and was a 27.5 point favorite. Shockingly, Old Dominion pulled the upset in what was their biggest win in program history. I’m pretty high on the Monarchs this year and fancy their chances of pulling another upset here. Old Dominion finished last year in the top 100 of my ratings for the first time in five years and brings back 17 starters from that team. Virginia Tech had their worst team in decades last year. I think first year HC Brent Pry will get it rolling in Blacksburg at some point but this is a tricky road game against a team that can’t be underestimated.
Old Dominion +7.5 -110 (3 units)
Old Dominion ML +230 (1 unit)
Illinois @ Indiana (Friday, 7 PM Central)
The Big Ten has scheduled two conference matchups for week 1, and I think both this one and the other (Purdue/Penn State) will be very informative in how the conference shakes out. Illinois took care of business in week 0 against an alright team in Wyoming. Indiana went 2-10 last year and brings in an entirely new offense. I think Indiana is actually the worst team in the Big Ten this year and think Illinois should be a small favorite in this one.
Illinois +3 -110 (3 units)
SMU @ North Texas (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I’m normally able to predict where lines are going to open for most games pretty well, but I was way off on this one. SMU and North Texas are both pegged as 7 win teams in my model, pretty in line with the market consensus. SMU certainly plays in a tougher conference (although they’ll both be in the American starting next year) but I was floored when I saw they were a double digit favorite. North Texas was quite solid in week 0 against UTEP and this line should be a bit under a touchdown.
North Texas +11.5 -110 (2 units)
North Texas ML +310 (1 unit)
Texas State @ Nevada (Saturday, 4:30 PM Central)
These are two teams that have stretched the fabric of college football as we know it. Texas State has the strangest roster in FBS, as they have completely abandoned recruiting high school players and have built an entire team out of the transfer portal. Meanwhile, Nevada has no one left on their roster after coach Jay Norvell left for conference rival Colorado State and took every player of note with him. The Wolfpack have set record lows for returning experience for a team in my model’s history. Texas State is a weird team, but a known quantity. I don’t think people realize how low the talent level on Nevada’s roster is, there are maybe two dozen FCS teams with better players.
Texas State +1 -110 (3 units)
Georgia State @ South Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
Georgia State is one of my sleeper teams in the Group of Five this year as I highlighted in my G5 preview. The Panthers return an above average amount of talent from a team that finished last year in the 50s in my ratings. South Carolina will clearly be much improved with new QB Spencer Rattler transferring in from Oklahoma, but I expect this game to play out like Georgia State’s opener last year where they nearly knocked off Auburn on the road.
Georgia State +12.5 -105 (2 units)
Georgia State ML +370 (1 unit)
Temple @ Duke (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)
This game is going to be completely unwatchable, as both Temple and Duke will be the worst team in their respective conferences this year. However, unwatchable doesn’t mean lack of gambling opportunity, and I like a play on Temple here. Last year’s Duke team was exceptionally terrible and this year’s team returns very little experience. Longtime HC David Cutcliffe clearly saw the writing on the wall and stepped down in the offseason. Temple has a real QB in former Georgia Bulldog D’Wan Mathis and actually beat a team with a pulse last year, something Duke was not able to do.
Temple +7 -110 (1 unit)
Temple ML +220 (1 unit)
UTEP @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I was high on UTEP in the preseason as I bet them over 5.5 wins and also put a speculative wager on them to win Conference USA at 20/1 odds. They were a bit disappointing in losing to North Texas in week 0 but I am high on the Mean Green as well and nearly bet their win total over. Oklahoma checks in at #11 in my preseason ratings, but UTEP has enough of a pulse that they should be able to keep this within a few touchdowns.
UTEP +30.5 -110 (2 units)
Rice @ USC (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
If you read my preseason win totals, this won’t surprise you as I am very low on USC. I don’t really have an opinion on Rice, I am aligned with the market in seeing them as a 3-9 team that is about 10th from bottom in FBS. However, I am looking to put on short USC exposure everywhere I can.
Rice +32.5 -110 (1 unit)
Western Michigan @ Michigan State (Friday, 6 PM Central)
Western Michigan has not made the MAC title game since their magical 2016 season when Corey Davis was playing for the Broncos. It’s a bit unlucky for WMU, who have consistently been one of the MAC’s top teams during that time. They might have the most talented roster in the MAC and they open the year 82nd in my ratings. As a Michigan State fan I can acknowledge that the Spartans were very lucky to win 11 games last year and their underlying fundamentals were of an 8 win team. I’m a bit high on WMU and a bit low on MSU so I like a play on the Broncos here.
Western Michigan +23 -110 (1 unit)
Just for fun I’m going to be parlaying my moneyline underdog plays once again this season. None of these worked out last year, but I would’ve hit a juicy parlay or two back in 2019 and 2020 if I was playing all my ML dogs like this back then.
Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML +1451 (0.2 units)
Old Dominion ML/North Texas ML +1253 (0.2 units)
Georgia State ML/North Texas ML +1827 (0.2 units)
Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML/North Texas ML +6259 (0.1 units)
Old Dominion ML/Georgia State ML/North Texas ML/Temple ML +20249 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 0
College football season kicks off this weekend with a small appetizer of games. The most notable game is Nebraska facing off against Northwestern in Ireland, but there’s a handful of other teams in action as well. Week 1 is over Labor Day weekend and features a full 80+ FBS games.
Vanderbilt @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
Hawai’i is an incredibly difficult team to forecast this year. HC Todd Graham resigned after a flurry of scrutiny, headlined by his own son transferring out of the program. They return staggeringly little production from last year’s team. However, I am going to be betting on them here as I think people don’t understand how poor the talent on Vanderbilt’s roster is. The Commodores were dreadful last year, winning two games by a combined five points against two of the sport’s worst teams. I would’ve made this game Hawai’i -12 at the end of last year, and while there’s no doubt this Rainbow Warriors team is much worse, the line shouldn’t be moving 3 touchdowns.
Hawaii +8 -110 (1 unit)
Hawaii ML +260 (0.5 units)
2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 3
In the second part of my preseason bets series, I finished up my preview of the Group of Five conferences. Today, in the final installment of the series, I’ll take a look at my favorite bets in the Pac-12 and the SEC.
Pac-12
USC Under 9.5 wins -120 (5 units)
This is my favorite bet in the preseason and will likely be my favorite pick all year. USC has been lost in the wilderness for a few years now, culminating in a 4-8 season last year where they finished 76th in my ratings. Optimism abounds this year in Los Angeles though, as the Trojans bring in HC Lincoln Riley and Heisman candidate QB Caleb Williams from Oklahoma, along with a plethora of other transfers on offense. They will inarguably have a top 10 offense in the sport but the defense leaves a lot to be desired. The D was horrendous last year, allowing 34 points to a horrible Arizona team and getting shredded for 62 points by UCLA. 9.5 wins implies USC is around the 10th best team in the sport, and I think they belong around 30 spots below that, there is simply no precedent for a single year transfer-driven turnaround like what they’re trying.
Notre Dame +3 -110 @ USC (1 unit), Utah -4 -110 vs. USC (2 units), UCLA +3.5 -110 vs. USC (1 unit)
The only reason I’m not playing the USC win total for more units is because I’m also betting against them in all these individual games. I put an extra unit on the Utah pick as I am a bit bullish on the Utes this year, while I’m more neutral on Notre Dame and UCLA. These figure to be USC’s 3 toughest games of the year, hence why they’re the 3 with a lookahead line listed.
Oregon State Over 6.5 wins +115 (1 unit)
Oregon State has been through a rough few years, but appears to be turning a corner under 5th year HC Jonathan Smith. The Beavers went 7-6 last year, beating Pac-12 champion Utah as well as defeating USC in Los Angeles for the first time since 1960. OSU starts their season with a fascinating pair of games against MWC favorites Boise State and Fresno State which will set the tone for their season. The Pac-12 slate is actually easier than the non-conference schedule as every other team in the Pac-12 North besides Oregon is in disarray right now. I think the Beavers will flirt with their first ever Pac-12 title game appearance.
Utah to win the Pac-12 +240 (2 units)
Utah had a fantastic year in 2021, overcoming a 1-2 start to win the Pac-12 and making it to the Rose Bowl where they narrowly lost to Ohio State. The Utes finished the year an impressive 4th in my ratings, behind just Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State. They start 2022 4th in my ratings as well behind the same three teams. QB Cam Rising is experienced and they have the best line play in the conference by some distance. Utah and USC are in a dead heat for first in the Pac-12 title odds, and given how low I am on USC and how much I like Utah it makes sense to put some cash on the Utes.
SEC
Florida Under 7 wins +105 (2 units)
Florida let go of Dan Mullen after a 6-7 season last year that was punctuated by a horrific blowout loss to South Carolina. Billy Napier steps in as the new coach, and while I’m quite bullish on him in the long term, even he has admitted that this will not be a quick rebuild in Gainesville. QB Anthony Richardson is undoubtedly a stud but outside of him, the Gators were hit hard in the transfer portal. Their running backs and receivers in particular are far from their usual standard. I’ve seen Florida pegged for third in the SEC East elsewhere, I have them tied with Missouri for fifth.
Florida State PK vs. Florida (2 units), Georgia -15.5 -110 vs. Florida (1 unit)
I’m also putting on some short Florida exposure through these lookahead lines. I bet on Florida State’s win total over already so my opinion on the Gators/Seminoles clash should be clear. Georgia is also so far ahead of the rest of the SEC East that I think they should have no trouble with a 5-7 or 6-6 type Gators team.
2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 2
In the first part of my preseason bets series I took a look at the American, ACC and the Big 12. This will be part two of three in the series as I go through the remaining Group of Five leagues.
Conference USA
UTEP over 5.5 wins -125 (5 units), UTEP to win Conference USA +2000 (0.5 units)
This is going to be one of my biggest plays of the preseason, I absolutely love UTEP this year. The Miners are historically one of the worst programs in FBS, but unlike the other perennial bottom feeders they have good fan support. Dana Dimel has done an admirable job turning this team from a complete joke into a bowl team. They went 7-6 last season for their best year since 2014, and return 15 starters from that team including QB Gavin Hardison and the best front seven in the league. The schedule is a dream as well as they play the 3 worst teams in FBS and a few others outside the top 100. I don’t understand this line at all and have seen others picking the over on UTEP as well.
FIU Under 3 wins +105 (2 units)
I highlighted FIU in my article previewing the Group of Five as the most dysfunctional team in all of FBS. I don’t think people understand how bad things have gotten for the Panthers, I rate this team as the worst in FBS by a healthy margin. Former head coach Butch Davis torched this place on the way out the door, blasting the university for not providing enough financial support to the program. Last year’s team went 1-11 and the coaching change led to a wave of transfers as only 10 starters return. The saving grace here is the easiest schedule in FBS, but I still struggle to see this team getting to 3 wins.
Western Kentucky to win CUSA +450 (1 unit)
Western Kentucky was one of the most exciting teams in football last year, led by now Patriots QB Bailey Zappe. The Hilltoppers have a lot to replace with Zappe, his OC (Zach Kittley, off to Texas Tech) and his best WR (Jerreth Sterns, off to the Buccaneers) all gone. They were the best team in CUSA last year even though UTSA grabbed the headlines with an 11-0 start. The good news is that WKU brings in some transfers again and the defense should be the best in the league. The other top teams in the league (UAB, UTSA) are either going through big coaching changes or have even more talent to replace so I like a flier on WKU at +450.
MAC
Ball State Under 5.5 wins -150 (2 units)
Ball State shocked the country in 2020, winning the MAC and finishing ranked for the first time in program history. There were a lot of calls for HC Mike Neu’s job before that year but he now looks entrenched here after that dream season. Last year Ball State fell down to earth. They were quite a bit worse than their 6-7 record would indicate as they finished 114th in my ratings. They rank near the bottom of FBS in returning experience and have a lot of uncertainty at the QB position so I forecast them at the bottom of the MAC West. Pounce on this line if you can get it at 5.5, as I’ve seen it offered down to 4.5 at some books.
Bowling Green Over 4 wins -145 (1 unit)
Bowling Green hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2015 although current HC Scot Loeffler’s 3 years as head coach have been much better than the disastrous 2016-2018 tenure of Mike Jinks. The Falcons went 4-8 last year, beating Minnesota as a 31 point underdog and showing real signs of life for the first time in years. They bring back 18 starters from last year’s team and I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a bowl. I’m upset with this one as I missed a big opportunity here. This line was at 3.5 a few weeks ago and it would have been a multi-unit play there but it’s just 1 unit at this number.
Sun Belt
Marshall Under 7 wins +120 (3 units)
Marshall makes the leap from Conference USA to the Sun Belt this year, and will play in the new Sun Belt East, the most exciting division in the Group of Five. I’ve seen a few people picking the Thundering Herd to win their division and I really do not see it. The step up in competition from CUSA to the Sun Belt is serious and they play Notre Dame and Louisiana from outside the division as well. They bring back only 11 starters from last year’s 7-6 team, and while the recruiting classes are quite good, the schedule is much harder than last year and the talent level is similar. Marshall will be a force in the Sun Belt soon but I don’t think it’ll be this year.
2022 College Football Preview: Preseason Bets Part 1
For those who are newer to my blog, college football is the only sport that I bet, and I make my bets with the aid of a model that I have developed over the years. I went into some detail on a previous version of my model on my old blog back in 2017 if you’re interested in the methodology. I have made some changes since then, most notably in how I consume box score data, but the fundamental tenets of my model are largely the same.
I have so many picks to make in the preseason that I am dividing them into multiple posts. In this post I’ll cover my picks from the American, ACC and Big 12.
American
UCF Under 8.5 Wins +125 (3 units)
I have had some good success betting against UCF in recent years, most notably when I had Tulsa ML +850 when the Golden Hurricanes beat UCF in 2020. The Knights went 9-4 last year but were quite a bit worse than their record, squeaking out wins over bad USF and Tulane teams and going 5-8 ATS. The strength of this team is their skill talent where they are loaded with Power Five athletes like QB John Rhys Plumlee. However they do not have the athletes on the lines to compete with Cincinnati and Houston. The middle of the American is strong enough that I find it unlikely this team can go 9-3 or better.
Cincinnati to win The American +190 (1 unit)
Cincinnati had their best season in program history last year, going 13-1 and making the playoff. While the Bearcats will undeniably take a step back this year, I still fancy their chances to win the American. They lose QB Desmond RIdder and CB Sauce Gardner, along with a few other NFL players. However, Luke Fickell has been recruiting at a higher level than any other G5 program and there is lots of talent on the roster. Most notably, all five offensive line starters return from last year. I think people underestimate how big the dropoff is between Cincinnati and the rest of the league and fancy their chances at a threepeat.
ACC
Clemson under 10.5 wins -130 (3 units)
Clemson suffered through their worst season in almost a decade last year going 10-3 and failing to win the ACC. The big question around the program is whether this was just a blip or the canary in the coal mine for the future of the Tigers. I don’t have a strong opinion on that question, but I do think Clemson is very far from being a national title contender this year. QB DJ Uiagalelei was absolutely brutal and I figure he will be replaced by Cade Klubnik this year. More worryingly, the skill talent is not up to its usual level. While the front seven is the best in the country, the rest of the roster falls far behind Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. The only reason I am not playing this bigger is because I have more picks fading Clemson coming right up.
NC State +10 -110 @ Clemson (1 unit) and Notre Dame +2.5 -110 vs. Clemson (1 unit)
I’m grouping these two plays together as the thesis behind them is the same. This is actually the first time I’ve played these advanced lines before, but I quite like them and am pleasantly surprised to see them listed at -110 juice. I’m trying to get as much short exposure to Clemson as I can, and these are the only other opportunities to do that outside the win total. I don’t have any strong opinions on Notre Dame (I see them as a 9-3 team as most do) but I do like NC State a bit as you’ll see below.
Florida State over 6.5 wins -135 (1 unit)
This is a big change for me, as Florida State under 7.5 wins was my biggest pick of 2019. That paid off for me as the 2019 Seminoles were such a mess that they got Willie Taggart fired after only two years in Tallahassee. Things have changed, and a few years of decent recruiting has built up the talent on this roster. This is a pleasant change of pace as the ‘Noles were fielding the worst offensive line in the league a few years ago, an embarrassment for a program of their stature. I’m overall quite low on the rest of the ACC compared to the market which makes a lot of games in conference play against the likes of Wake Forest and Louisville look more winnable.
NC State to win the ACC +750 (0.5 units)
Clemson is the prohibitive favorite to win the ACC at -165. Given how low I am on the Tigers, it makes sense to bet on one of the other ACC contenders and my favorite out of them is NC State. The Wolfpack return QB Devin Leary from last year’s team along with 10 starters on defense. They likely will have to beat Clemson on the road to win the league, but they beat them last year and if they can do it again the rest of the ACC Atlantic is weaker than it was last year.
Big 12
Kansas over 2.5 wins -135 (2 units)
Kansas abruptly fired Les Miles in spring 2021 and made a great hire by bringing in former Buffalo HC Lance Leipold to replace him. While the Jayhawks were only 2-10 last year, they showed real signs of life, beating Texas as a 31 point underdog and playing Oklahoma and TCU close as huge underdogs. Leipold has been given a lot of leash by the athletic department to build this team his way and I think it will start to pay off as they return 17 starters. I favor Kansas against Tennessee Tech and Duke and think they pick off a Big 12 team or two somewhere.
Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 +550 (1 unit), Baylor to win the Big 12 +650 (1 unit)
The Big 12 has been dominated by Oklahoma for the last decade, and they had won 6 straight conference titles going into last year. However, the Sooners lost to both of these teams last year and instead, the Bears and Pokes faced off in the Big 12 title game where Baylor won on a thrilling goal line stand. These two squads are #3 and #4 in the Big 12 title odds, and I am betting on both of them as I think the gap between them and the top 2 (Oklahoma and Texas) is relatively small. Oklahoma State has the best quarterback in the league in Spencer Sanders, while Baylor boasts a top 5 defense in the country. This is just a bet on overall Big 12 parity as I think the top 4 teams in the league are pretty interchangeable this year.
2022 College Football Preview: 5 Teams Most Likely to Break into the Playoff
We are now 8 years into the playoff era in college football. Only 13 teams have made it into the playoff during that time, while Alabama and Clemson have dominated with 7 and 6 appearances respectively. Last year, Michigan and Cincinnati joined the club of playoff teams. Today I’ll be taking a look at the 5 teams who have never been to the playoff who are most likely to follow in their footsteps and make their first appearance this season.
It has been 6 years since a Pac-12 team made the playoff but I think Utah has a decent chance of breaking that streak this year. The Utes had a rough start to their 2021 campaign with losses to BYU and San Diego State. However, they were fantastic down the stretch, beating Oregon twice, winning the Pac-12 and taking Ohio State to the wire in the Rose Bowl. The Utes finished last year #4 in my ratings and return QB Cam Rising as well as the best line play in the conference. Utah could be favored in every game, with the key matchups being trips to Florida and Oregon and a home game against USC. This is the clear best team in the Pac-12 and a 12-1 campaign should be enough to get them into the playoff.
There’s not a team in college football that perplexes me more than NC State. The Wolfpack have all the ingredients of a winner- they play in a big city in a big football crazy state. However, they’ve never even gone to a BCS/NY6 bowl, much less the playoff. Last year’s team got over the hump and beat Clemson, but they were not able to win the ACC Atlantic after losses to Miami and Wake Forest. The Pack bring back veteran QB Devin Leary and a walloping 17 starters from the 2021 squad. The path to the playoff involves beating Clemson again, winning the ACC and losing no more than 1 game. It’s not likely, but they’ll be favored in every game except Clemson so it’s certainly possible.
Arguably no team has gotten more hype this offseason than Texas A&M. The Aggies continue to stack up huge recruiting classes and of course beat Alabama last year. My ratings love the talent on the Aggies’ roster but the schedule is absolutely brutal. They’ll be a double digit underdog in Tuscaloosa, but could be favored in every other game. A&M thought they deserved a playoff spot in 2020 after losing to Alabama and winning every other game. If they can pull that off this year, I think that they’ll get selected.
Wisconsin has been on the doorstep of the playoff multiple times, most recently in 2017 where they went 12-0 before falling in the Big Ten title game to Ohio State. My ratings absolutely love the Badgers’ offensive line, which could be the best in the country. Combined with returning QB Graham Mertz and a strong running game, the Badgers will have the second best offense in the Big Ten behind Ohio State. They do have to travel to Columbus in September, but like Texas A&M, this is a situation where one loss to an elite team and wins everywhere else should be enough to make the playoff.
I would argue that no team has had a more disappointing 21st century than Tennessee. After a dominant 1990s that featured a national title and multiple other top 10 finishes, it has been over 20 years since the Volunteers finished in the top 10. However, with Florida now rebuilding, the Vols look like the clear 2nd best team in the SEC East. The schedule is not easy as they play both Alabama and Georgia, as well as a fascinating non-conference game against Pitt. However, the skill talent here is phenomenal and my ratings say this is the 4th best team in the SEC behind Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M.
2022 College Football Preview: 2022’s 10 Most Intriguing Group of Five Teams
With college football season now only five weeks away, I want to start my season preview series by looking at 10 of the most interesting teams from the Group of Five. For the uninitiated, this moniker refers to FBS’ 5 conferences that lack a major bowl tie-in— the American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, Conference USA and the MAC. Even within this basket of leagues there is significant variety, with CUSA hanging onto big-time football by a thread while the Sun Belt is a deep and fascinating league.
American
Houston has always had ambitions to be a Power Five program. Their wish will be granted next year when they, along with Cincinnati and UCF, leave this league for the Big 12. They certainly have the roster of a major conference team, especially in the front seven. Their season starts with a fascinating road trip against UTSA and Texas Tech. If they get through those two games, they should be favored in every remaining game as they avoid Cincinnati and UCF. Houston looks more like a 9-3 team to me than the fringe playoff contender some are calling them, but this is a team on the rise that could find themselves in a New Year’s Day bowl.
I have always had a soft spot for East Carolina. As I was coming of age as a football fan, they were routinely picking off ACC teams like Virginia Tech and NC State. Unfortunately, the 2010s were less kind to this program than the 2000s were, punctuated by the senseless firing of Ruffin McNeil which led to Lincoln Riley leaving the program. Things are now looking up once again for the Pirates as they return 15 starters from last year’s 7-5 team. The American will be going under big changes in the coming years, and a good season this year will set ECU up to be the top dog of the new league.
Sun Belt
There is a saying in political circles that “demography is destiny”, as politicians always have to think about what the future of their electorate looks like. This holds equally true in college football, and you’d be hard pressed to find a better example than Georgia State. The Panthers represent a rapidly growing university in a rapidly growing state, and thus have found quick success since starting their football program in 2010. Georgia State beat Tennessee in 2019 and had Auburn on the ropes in Jordan-Hare last year. They return 15 starters including senior QB Darren Graniger, and the fruits of years of recruiting Atlanta have borne out as there is talent up and down the roster. The season opens with a pair of games against South Carolina and North Carolina, and I expect GSU to come out of it with at least a split. They are set up for their best team in program history and I project them at 8-4.
While also in the state of Georgia, rural Georgia Southern is a world away from Georgia State’s downtown Atlanta campus. The Eagles have a proud history with 6 national championships at the FCS level, and moved up to FBS ball in 2014. They are abandoning their usual triple option attack this year after firing coach Chad Lunsford, hiring Clay Helton from USC who will bring in a more traditional offense. I have no clue what to expect from the Eagles this year- Los Angeles to Statesboro, GA is a massive culture change for Coach Helton and moving away from the option is not trivial from a personnel perspective. My ratings call for a 5-7 season but anything from 2 to 8 wins wouldn’t shock me as this program gets a complete facelift.
Mountain West
Air Force has been the best team in college football the last few years that no one talks about, they are 24-8 in the last 3 years. Like the other service academies, the Falcons run a triple option offense due to academy weight restrictions for their offensive linemen. I’m bullish on Air Force this year because they’re experienced for a service academy team and return a great option QB in Haaziq Daniels and 4 offensive linemen. I project Air Force for a 9-3 season and think they have a good chance at their first conference title since 1998.
I don’t think there are many football programs that have been more poorly managed this millennium than Colorado State. The potential of this job is obvious- similar to Georgia State, the Rams play in a rapidly growing metro area with plenty of football talent around. They shelled out for a new stadium a few years ago and opened up the checkbook once again to poach new head coach Jay Norvell from rival Nevada this past offseason. CSU was unlucky to go 3-9 last year and Norvell brings tons of players from Nevada including his QB. I think the Rams look like a 6-6 team this year but as conference realignment continues the pressure is on this program to prove they can compete at the highest level.
Conference USA
There may not have been a more fun team in college football last year than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers imported QB Bailey Zappe, WR Jerreth Stearns and OC Zach Kittley from FCS Houston Baptist and rode the trio to a 9-5 season and a CUSA East title. I got to see them in person against Indiana in September and was very impressed with Zappe in particular. This is the last year of Conference USA existing in its current iteration before 6 teams depart for the American in 2023 and some new teams arrive. WKU is by far the strongest program of the teams remaining in the league, and if they want to become the power of the new CUSA this is the year for them to assert that status. I project them for a 9-4 season, similar to last year.
There is not an FBS program who has experienced a bigger fall from grace recently than Florida International. The Panthers moved up to FBS alongside archrival Florida Atlantic over a decade ago, and have now fallen far behind. FIU is 1-16 in the last two years and finished last year as the second worst team in the country in my metrics. There is not much hope for improvement this year as I project them to be the worst team in the country by a decent margin, with 1-11 being the most likely scenario. I’m intrigued by FIU because it’s not clear to me where this program goes next- the recent past has been so bad that there’s an argument for them to drop football. At the same time, they are right in the heart of Miami so it is easy to see their long term potential if managed properly.
MAC
The MAC has the most parity of any FBS conference in the country. However, if I had to pick the one team with the potential to dominate the league over the 2020s, it would be Toledo. The Rockets always recruit near the top of the league and have more money than most of their competitors. It shows on this year’s roster, as they will have better line play than the bottom half of the Big Ten this year. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s been 4 years since Toledo won the MAC West, but they are my clear pick to win the league this year.
On the other end of the MAC is Akron. The Zips unquestionably have the least history of any team in the league, having never been ranked. They went 3-27 under former HC Tom Arth, with their only FBS wins being a pair over Bowling Green. However, there is reason for optimism as Akron replaced Arth with former Mississippi State HC Joe Moorhead. Moorhead has a proven track record as a play caller and got a raw deal to get fired from Starkville after 2 seasons. I only project Akron as a 3-9 team this year, but the arrow is undoubtedly pointing up for the future.
College Football Bowl Picks
Win Totals: -12.84 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
Week 11: +0.82 units
Week 12: -1.18 units
Week 13: -5.09 units
End of Season Props: -2.5 units
Season Total: -34.66 units
My worst season in the last few years is thankfully coming to a close. I just have two picks for bowl season- I’m potentially interested in betting on Pitt in the Peach Bowl as well, although the line has been taken down everywhere awaiting the status of Pitt’s star QB Kenny Pickett.
Old Dominion vs. Tulsa (Myrtle Beach Bowl, December 20th 1:30 PM Central)
Old Dominion’s season looked completely lost as they opened 1-6 with their only win over lowly Hampton. However, their schedule was quite frontloaded and they went 5-0 down the stretch to qualify for their second bowl in program history. Tulsa is a little lucky to be 6-6 with close wins over bad teams like Arkansas State and South Florida. I like a small play on the Monarchs.
Old Dominion +9.5 -110 (1 unit)
Ball State vs. Georgia State (Camellia Bowl, December 25th 1:30 PM Central)
Georgia State has had a very impressive season, winning on the road against 10-2 Coastal Carolina and taking Auburn to the wire as well. Ball State has been a disappointment after last year’s MAC title and is one of the weaker bowl teams, I like Georgia State for a unit.
Georgia State -4.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 13
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
Week 11: +0.82 units
Week 12: -1.18 units
End of Season Props: 0 units
Season Total: -13.97 units
I had my first negative week in a month last week, mainly caused by South Alabama failing to cover against Tennessee. The Vols look like easily the second best team in the SEC East and are now in the top 20 of my ratings.
Kentucky @ Louisville
I’ve been betting against the SEC East all year and I’m going to continue to do so here. Louisville has put together quite a nice season, and have actually cracked the top 25 of my ratings for the first time in a few years. Kentucky was nowhere near as good as their top 10 ranking earlier in the year and their defense has slipped a lot in the last month.
Louisville -3 -110 (2 units)
Iowa @ Nebraska
2021 Nebraska is going to go down as one of the strangest college football seasons in recent memory. The Cornhuskers are 3-7 and in the top 25 of my ratings, along with many other predictive metrics. I’m still pretty bearish on Iowa as a lot of their early success was fueled by turnovers, I think Nebraska is a slightly better team and should be favored here.
Nebraska +1.5 -110 (2 units)
Penn State @ Michigan State
Penn State’s season has pretty rapidly fallen off the rails, highlighted by their 9OT loss to Illinois. They now have no shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, but they’re still the 12th or so best team in college football. The same cannot be said for Michigan State, who got completely exposed by Ohio State and should be 7-4, not 9-2. My model likes betting against teams who just got blown out and I’m doing so here.
Penn State -1 -110 (1 unit)
Notre Dame @ Stanford
Stanford has had a strange season where they knocked off Oregon in overtime and have done nothing of consequence since. Notre Dame has moved up to 8th in my ratings after a dominant win over Georgia Tech. Notre Dame has shown they can blow out bad teams and I expect them to do so here.
Notre Dame -19 -110 (1 unit)
Oregon State @ Oregon
I’ve been pretty high on Oregon State all season, they rose up to the top 15 in my ratings back in late October. The predictive metrics have been low on Oregon all year and last week we saw why when they got waxed by Utah. These teams are pretty close to even, and Oregon State can actually win the Pac-12 North if they win this game and Washington wins the Apple Cup.
Oregon State +7 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 12
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
Week 11: +0.82 units
End of Season Props: 0 units
Season Total: -13.97 units
I notched my third winning week in a row thanks to Arizona State covering. I hope you got ASU at -4 like I did, if you had -5 or -6 it was a pretty horrific loss as Washington scored a garbage time TD down by 11 points as time expired.
South Alabama @ Tennessee
South Alabama has had a solid season under second year coach Kane Wommack, at 5-5 they’re one win away from their first bowl game in 5 years. Tennessee is also 5-5 and clearly the second best team in the SEC East. I think Tennessee is a little overrated based on beating one average team (Kentucky) and two pretty bad ones (Missouri and South Carolina) and should be favored by about a TD less than they are here.
South Alabama +27.5 -110 (2 units)
Purdue @ Northwestern
This game is actually going to be played at Wrigley Field, a few miles south of Northwestern’s usual stadium in Evanston. Despite having a former 5 star QB on the roster in Hunter Johnson, the Wildcats’ offense has spun out of control and they haven’t scored more than 14 points in their last 4 games. The Wildcats have a solid defense but Purdue has a top 10 passing game in the country and will roll over them.
Purdue -11 -110 ( unit)
Illinois @ Iowa
Few teams have had a stranger season than Iowa. I was quite high on the Hawkeyes in the preseason (I bet on them to win the Big Ten at +900) but things fell apart in a hurry when their good turnover luck disappeared. Illinois still harbors a faint chance at a bowl and their offense has improved enough under Michigan transfer Brandon Peters that I like their chances in what figures to be a low scoring affair (the total is a paltry 38.5).
Illinois +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
Arizona @ Washington State
Arizona looked like the worst team in the Power Five for the first half of the season but has been much improved in the last few weeks. They beat Cal in a really ugly game and hung with USC and Utah, who are both much more talented than them. Washington State has had a decent season considering the circumstances but Arizona is closer to the pack in the Pac-12 than people realize.
Arizona +14.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 11
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Week 10: +2.6 units
End of Season Props: 0 units
Season Total: -14.79 units
Last week was solid once again, with Tennessee, Purdue and North Texas all covering. I’ve clawed back quite a bit from my horrendous weeks 2 and 3 and am now down only 15 units on the year.
Arizona State @ Washington
This was pegged as a big game in the preseason as many people thought these were the two teams that had the best chance of challenging Oregon for the Pac-12. They’ve since disappointed and fallen out of the rankings, but I think Arizona State is much better. The Sun Devils lost to BYU and Utah, who are both in my top 25, and had a very fluky loss to Washington State. Washington is incapable of throwing the ball downfield and ASU should roll here.
Arizona State -4 -110 (2 units)
USC @ California
Cal has had a very frustrating season, highlighted by a loss to Arizona last week. However, the Bears were without a quarter of their team (including starting QB Chase Garbers) due to COVID protocols, all of whom should be back here. Cal has been very unlucky in close games this year and deserves to be over .500. USC has gone off the rails and I think they should be a very slight dog here.
California +3 -110 (1 unit)
Tulsa @ Tulane
Both these teams have had strange seasons where they have played good teams close but really struggled against some weaker teams. Tulsa is the slightly better team but they got quite lucky to beat Memphis and USF in back to back games. Tulane certainly deserves to be better than 1-8 and I think they have a good shot at a second win here.
Tulane +3.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 10
Win Totals: 0 units
Week 0: -2.5 units
Week 1: +10.4 units
Week 2: -14.74 units
Week 3: -18.27 units
Week 4: +4.89 units
Week 5: -5.09 units
Week 6: +5.45 units
Week 7: +1.85 units
Week 8: -0.18 units
Week 9: +1.72 units
Season Total: -16.47 units
A horrendous backdoor cover for Clemson who returned a fumble for a touchdown as time expired, causing us to push Florida State +10. Other than that, another solid week with Mississippi State and Wisconsin covering easily.
Tennessee @ Kentucky
I am betting against Kentucky once again here. The Wildcats are being propped up in the polls by their win against Florida. The Wildcats still had a very shaky September with close wins against Chattanooga, Missouri and South Carolina and I think that all 7 teams in the SEC West are better than them. Tennessee has found a serviceable quarterback in Hendon Hooker and should make a bowl game. I’m missing the best number here as this opened at Kentucky -5 but there’s still good value here.
Tennessee +3 -115 (2 units)
Michigan State @ Purdue
Every year there’s one or two teams in the country who have a massive gap between their true strength as measured by predictive metrics and their ranking in the polls. Michigan State epitomizes that, they are extremely lucky to be 8-0 (6-2 would be pretty fair) and have won tons of close games. I think these teams are actually pretty close to even, Purdue’s offense has shown some good stuff in October and this is easily their best team since 2018. The public is going to be all over Michigan State here but I like Purdue, it is a shame I missed this line when it opened at 3.
Purdue +2.5 -105 (1 unit)
Georgia Tech @ Miami
Miami has had a ton of close games this season and could easily be either 2-6 or 6-2. They’ve underperformed their preseason ranking by quite a bit, but still have lots to play for with Manny Diaz’s job in serious jeopardy and the ACC Coastal title still in play. Georgia Tech has had their best season since moving away from Paul Johnson’s flexbone offense but the talent gap between them and Miami is immense.
Miami -9 -110 (1 unit)
North Texas @ Southern Mississippi
I believe that I have bet on North Texas games (both for and against) more than anyone else this season. This is also a situation where the team is playing for their coach’s job, Seth Littrell very nearly got the Kansas State job a few years ago but is now a few losses away from being out of a job. However, they should be able to take care of business against a Southern Miss team that is yet to win an FBS game this year.
North Texas -5.5 -110 (1 unit)