College Football Preseason Bets
With football season coming up around the corner, it’s time for my favorite betting opportunity of the year- college football win totals. College football is the only sport that I know well enough to bet profitably, and I think there is the most money to be made early in the season. By the latter half of the season, most models agree about the relative strength of various teams, and you’re unlikely to see any big discrepancies between my model and the Vegas line.
While there’s not much edge to be had in the back half of college football season, the beginning of the season is a totally different story. No one knows how to price teams at the beginning of the season, as college football rosters are so big that backing out the value of individual players (beyond quarterbacks) is practically impossible.
This season figures to be particularly hard to price. The NCAA has ruled that the 2020 season does not count to a player’s four years of college eligibility. As a result, the sport as a whole is significantly more experienced than it normally is- the average FBS roster is about 0.7 years more experienced than in a normal year. Any model which is calibrated on past years’ returning production data is going to have to make significant adjustments this year.
Connecticut Over 2 -125 (8 units)
I will admit that I am scraping the bottom of the barrel here betting on UConn. Everyone agrees that they’re one of the ten worst teams in FBS, I am just betting their over because I think they’re bottom ten, but not bottom five. The Huskies are one of three teams that cancelled their 2020 season because of COVID which makes them especially hard to price.
There’s a ton of turnover on this roster given the year off, but even using a conservative guess of how much experience is on this team, I still like the over. They have two games against FCS teams in Holy Cross and Yale, both of which they should win. They also will be road favorites at UMass and play two other sub-100 teams in Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee.
Duke Under 3.5 +125 (6 units)
David Cutcliffe has done a great job in his time at Duke, but last year’s team was possibly the worst of his entire tenure. The Blue Devils went 2-9 and were a complete disaster on defense, allowing 38 points or more in half their games, largely to subpar opposition. My numbers rated them as the worst defensive team in the entire Power Five last year.
While the defense has nowhere to go but up, the offense will press the reset button. Duke returns 54% of their offensive production. That figure is low in normal years, and extremely low this year given how experienced the sport as a whole will be.
Duke will be favored in three games this year- Kansas, NC A&T and Charlotte. None of the three are easy wins, they’ll likely be single digit favorites in all three. They figure to be at least two touchdown underdogs in every other game, except possibly Georgia Tech.
Michigan Under 7.5 -110 (6 units)
Michigan was a complete disaster last year, going 2-4. To make matters worse, one of the wins was in 3OT against Rutgers, and they were only competitive in one of the four losses. They finished the year 62nd in my ratings, right in the middle of the 130 team pack.
Michigan has recruited at a high enough level that there’s decent talent on this roster, so some improvement is definitely expected from last year. But a win total of 7.5 with this schedule implies Michigan is around the 25th best team in the country. Going from 60th to 25th with no clear answer at quarterback and a middling amount of returning experience is a pretty tough combination, so I like the under on the Wolverines.
BYU Over 7 -115 (4 units)
BYU was the biggest surprise of the 2020 college football season, going 11-1 and demolishing most opponents on a pretty soft schedule. Plenty of teams rack up wins against bad teams without actually being that good, but the Cougars’ underlying fundamentals were quite solid. Last year’s squad finished 8th in my ratings.
BYU will not come close to last year’s Zach Wilson-led heights, and plays a tougher schedule that features 7 Power Five opponents plus Boise State. Still, for them to go under 6 wins would mean they’re around the 60th best team in the sport. There’s almost no track record of teams falling from top 10 to outside the top 50, even with a generational quarterback leaving. I feel confident BYU can put together a solid season and make their way to a bowl.
Boise State Under 9 -115 (3 units)
After 7 successful years in Boise, Bryan Harsin left for Auburn over the offseason. Andy Avalos takes over a veteran team that fell to San Jose State in last year’s Mountain West title game.
The Broncos are once again the consensus pick to win the conference, and while I think they are the best team in the Mountain West, others are not far behind. The MWC is the most experienced conference in the sport, and Wyoming, Nevada and San Jose State are all in my preseason top 50 as well. Add in tough non conference games against Oklahoma State and UCF, and I have a tough time seeing Boise State getting to double digit wins.
Houston Under 8.5 -120 (3 units)
It’s been quite an odd two years for Dana Holgersen at Houston. The Cougars redshirted a ton of players in 2019 before getting hit hard by COVID last year, so the program has not been up to its usual standard set under Kevin Sumlin and Tom Herman. Last year’s team limped to a 3-5 finish that was capped by a loss to a bad Hawaii team.
This year’s squad will certainly be better, and will be helped by a light non-conference slate where the Cougars will be favored in all four games. Still, the middle of the American is better than most give it credit for, and I’m hesitant to say this team can win nine games.
East Carolina Over 5 -130 (2 units)
East Carolina was one of the best Group of Five teams in the country in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Since being ranked in the first CFP poll in 2014, it’s been a rapid slide for the program with six consecutive losing seasons. I think that that streak ends this year. The Pirates return every contributor of note on offense, and rate a fantastic 91% in returning experience.
There are three teams who are clearly at the bottom of the AAC (Navy, Temple and USF) and ECU gets to play them all. Add in an FCS game and the Pirates should be double digit favorites in four games. I am actually going to favor them over South Carolina in week 2, and there’s a few winnable conference games on the schedule as well.
Rice Over 5.5 -125 (2 units)
Rice was hit harder than almost any other team last year with COVID, playing only five games and waiting a month between games two and three. In the limited amount they played, I actually liked what I saw last year from the Owls. They pulled the most shocking result of the season when they beat undefeated Marshall 20-0 on the road in Huntington.
Rice figures to be improved on the defensive side of the ball and has the most talented quarterback the program has seen in years in Nebraska transfer Luke McCaffrey. A tough non-conference slate that features 3 former SWC foes caps their upside, but this is undoubtedly a team with a pulse. There are enough teams without a pulse in Conference USA that they should be able to rack up six wins.
South Carolina Under 3.5 +135 (2 units)
South Carolina was a dumpster fire last year, and Will Muschamp got a well-deserved firing in November. Shane Beamer inherits a complete disaster that is at least three or four years away from being a respectable SEC program. Tons of players transferred out in the offseason making this the least experienced roster in the conference.
The only thing the Gamecocks have going for them is that they’ve recruited at a decent level, so there’s a handful of four stars on the roster. They will be two touchdown underdogs in at least six games and figure to be underdogs when Troy comes to town on October 2nd. I think people are pricing in too much mean regression for the Gamecocks, this team is by far the worst in the SEC not named Vanderbilt.
Here are some other picks I like for smaller size. Some of these are Power Five teams where the amount of talent on the roster is overestimated, like Florida State and Oregon. Others are Group of Five teams with lots of returning experience and soft schedules.
Florida State Under 5.5 +105 (1 unit)
Hawaii Over 7 +125 (1 unit)
Arkansas Under 5.5 -115 (1 unit)
Louisville Over 6.5 -115 (1 unit)
Georgia State Over 5 -120 (1 unit)
Oregon Under 9 -115 (1 unit)
Kent State Over 5.5 +115 (1 unit)
Northwestern Over 6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Iowa to win Big Ten +950 (0.5 units)
Wyoming to win Mountain West +725 (0.5 units)
College Football Bowl Picks
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Week 11: +3.41 units
Week 12: -3.09 units
Week 13: +3.74 units
Week 14: +1.67 units
Week 15: +2.76 units
Week 16: +0.89 units
Season: +32.57 units
I only had one pick last week, but Minnesota covered easily for the second week in a row. These are my last two picks of the year, but stay tuned for some posts in the coming weeks summarizing my model’s 2020 performance and looking forward to 2021.
Houston vs. Hawai’i (December 24th 2:30 PM Central)
Hawai’i had a weird season, only playing 5 games. Still, they played a lot of the top teams in the Mountain West, and are better than their 2-3 record indicates. Houston fumbled down the stretch, coming up just short in their comeback against Memphis. I think the MWC is a bit underrated and like Hawai’i here.
Hawai’i +11 -109 (1 unit)
Texas vs. Colorado (December 29th)
Colorado got a lot of publicity and was briefly ranked thanks to their 4-0 start. The Buffaloes were never as good as the record indicated, only beating a horrible Arizona team by 11 and ekeing past Stanford. Texas got a bit unlucky down the stretch and should be closer to two touchdown favorites here.
Texas -9.5 -114 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 16
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Week 11: +3.41 units
Week 12: -3.09 units
Week 13: +3.74 units
Week 14: +1.67 units
Week 15: +2.76 units
Season: +31.68 units
Last week was solid once again, as Minnesota beat Nebraska outright, cashing my biggest pick as well as Minnesota ML +285. I also got covers out of Central Michigan (who also won outright) and UNLV to finish +2.76 units on the week.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
I’ve been backing Minnesota throughout the season, and am going to do so once again here. Wisconsin’s offense has fallen off of a cliff in the last few weeks after a strong start to the season, and is now only a fringe top 25 team. I think this line should be in the single digits.
Minnesota +12.5 -112 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 15
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Week 11: +3.41 units
Week 12: -3.09 units
Week 13: +3.74 units
Week 14: +1.67 units
Season: +28.92 units
A solid week, I went 3-1 on all 1 unit picks. Florida Atlantic disappointed me with a blowout loss to Georgia Southern, while Air Force, Louisiana Tech and Coastal Carolina covered easily.
Minnesota @ Nebraska (Saturday 11 AM Central)
Minnesota is a tough team to evaluate as they have had their last two games canceled due to COVID. Still, their results are in line with a mediocre Big Ten team, with wins over Illinois and Purdue. Nebraska got a good result against Purdue last week, but I think they’re only slightly better than Minnesota and this line should definitely be in the single digits.
Minnesota +11 -113 (2 units)
Minnesota ML +285 (1 unit)
Virginia @ Virginia Tech (Saturday 7 PM Central)
Virginia snuck up on me- they’re sitting in the top 40 of my ratings now, and have rattled off 4 straight wins after a 1-4 start, including solid wins over North Carolina and Boston College, Virginia Tech is unlucky to be 4-6, but they have really fallen off a cliff the past two weeks. Virginia should be a small favorite here.
Virginia +2.5 -109 (2 units)
UNLV @ Hawai’i
UNLV is looking like the worst team in the Mountain West, as they’re 0-5 with all 5 losses by double digits. However, I think Hawai’i is worse than every team they’ve played so far this year. The Rainbow Warriors boast a nice win over Nevada, but this is a pretty massive spread for an unproven Hawai’i team.
UNLV +20.5 -109 (2 units)
UNLV ML +700 (0.5 units)
Louisiana Tech @ TCU (Saturday 6 PM Central)
TCU has had an up and down season with wins over Texas and Oklahoma State but frustrating losses to Kansas State and West Virginia. Louisiana Tech is a little lucky to be 5-3 with some close wins, but they’re still an average G5 team and this line should be closer to two touchdowns.
Louisiana Tech +21.5 -110 (1 unit)
Central Michigan @ Toledo (Saturday 2 PM Central)
Toledo has been pretty overvalued throughout the season, I bet against them when they were playing Ball State two weeks ago and Ball State ML hit at +265. I think the Rockets are a bit too high in Vegas’ eyes- I have them as the 6th best team in the MAC. Central Michigan is not that much worse and this number should be single digits.
Central Michigan +11.5 -113 (1 unit)
Georgia @ Missouri (Saturday 11 AM Central)
Missouri has clawed into the CFP top 25, which is quite impressive for a team that I had pegged near the bottom of the SEC in the preseason. Georgia has looked frighteningly mediocre in the last few weeks, and shouldn’t be getting two touchdowns on the road against a competent opponent.
Missouri +13.5 -110 (1 unit)
Minnesota, UNLV ML Parlay +2980 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 14
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Week 11: +3.41 units
Week 12: -3.09 units
Week 13: +3.74 units
Season: +27.25 units
Most of my picks got canceled last week, but one of the ones that did not was Ball State. The Cardinals came through both on the spread and moneyline, resisting a late surge by Toledo, to be the first moneyline underdog I’ve hit in a few weeks. I lost a small play on San Diego State as well to finish +3.74 units on the week.
UPDATE 12/5 3:45 PM Central:
I’m adding a 1 unit play on Coastal Carolina +10.5 -112 on the newly scheduled BYU @ Coastal Carolina game.
Air Force @ Utah State (Thursday 8:30 PM Central)
Air Force has had a weird season with lots of breaks and many games canceled due to COVID. They’re a competent G5 team though, with big wins over New Mexico and Navy, Utah State, meanwhile, has been a complete dumpster fire since Gary Andersen was fired early in the season. The Aggies are one of the worst team in FBS and should be bigger underdogs here.
Air Force -10.5 -110 (1 unit)
Florida Atlantic @ Georgia Southern (Saturday 5:00 PM Central)
I’ve been backing Florida Atlantic all season, and I’m continuing to do so here. They’ve bludgeoned teams to death this season, allowing single digit points in 4 of their 6 games this season. Georgia Southern is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, but I think that FAU is one of the top 15 or so teams in the G5 and should be a mild favorite here.
Florida Atlantic +2.5 -110 (1 unit)
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas (Thursday 5:00 PM Central)
Louisiana Tech has not played a game since October due to many COVID cancellations. Meanwhile, North Texas was surprisingly whipped by UTSA last week. There’s a transition of power going on in the G5 ranks in Texas, with programs like the Roadrunners beginning to take more of the key 3 star talent. I think people are reading too much into the long layoff for La Tech and I like the Bulldogs here.
Louisiana Tech -2.5 -115 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 13
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Week 11: +3.41 units
Week 12: -3.09 units
Season: +23.51 units
Last week was another down one, as Minnesota was my only pick that hit. Kentucky got obliterated by Alabama, and Syracuse failed to score a point against Louisville. Hopefully this week should be a return to winning ways.
Update 3 PM Central 11/28:
San Diego State @ Colorado is a newly listed game after Colorado’s game against USC was postponed. I like San Diego State +3 -108 there for 1 unit.
Ball State @ Toledo (Saturday 11 AM Central)
Toledo is a traditional power in the MAC, and Ball State is not. However, I think that Ball State is a top half team in the MAC, with only one loss so far this year to a good Miami Ohio team. I like Ball State for a medium play here.
Ball State +10.5 -109 (2 units)
Ball State ML +265 (1 unit)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin (Saturday 1 PM Central)
Minnesota had high hopes for this season which have come crashing to a halt after a poor start. Still, there’s a decent amount of talent on their roster, certainly higher than they’ve had in most years in the past decade. Wisconsin’s offense has come down to earth and will have trouble covering three touchdowns.
Minnesota +21.5 -112 (2 units)
Minnesota ML +950 (0.5 units)
Louisiana Tech @ FIU (Saturday 11 AM Central)
Louisiana Tech has been solid this year, and is on course for a mediocre bowl game. FIU, meanwhile, has been quite bad and is the only FBS team to lose to an FCS school so far this year. I think this line should be a bit above a touchdown.
Louisiana Tech -4.5 -106 (1 unit)
Tulsa @ Houston (Saturday 11 AM Central)
Tulsa has been massively improved this year, and looks quite likely to make i
t to the AAC championship game. Houston has had an up and down year, and is yet to beat a team anywhere near the quality of Tulsa this year.
Tulsa +2.5 -108 (1 unit)
Ball State, Minnesota ML Parlay +3732 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 12
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Week 11: +3.41 units
Season: +26.60 units
Last week was my first winning week in a while, and it went quite smoothly as most of my picks covered easily. Kent State, FAU and Wisconsin all covered easily against Bowling Green, FIU and Michigan. I lost only on Cal -3 against UCLA.
Syracuse @ Louisville
Both of these teams only have 1 win in the ACC so far this year, which makes me a bit surprised to see this line as big as it is. Louisville certainly has deserved to win more games than they did, but Syracuse has improved a bit in recent weeks, and I think there’s some distance between them and the bottom of the league.
Syracuse +18 -108 (2 units)
Syracuse ML +600 (0.5 units)
UNLV @ Colorado State
UNLV has been bad so far this year, getting off to an 0-4 start. Still, they’ve played four of the best teams in the league thus far, and are likely better than their record suggests. Colorado State’s defense has been all over the place this year, and I think UNLV can keep this game close.
UNLV +16.5 -114 (1 unit)
USC @ Utah
Utah is the only team that was supposed to have played a game by now yet hasn’t, with both of their first two games getting cancelled due to COVID. USC, on the other hand, has eked out 2 close wins against inferior teams. I think these teams are pretty close to even for tops in the Pac-12 South, and think it should be close to a pick’em.
Utah +3.5 -117 (1 unit)
Kentucky @ Alabama
Alabama is undoubtedly one of the top two or three teams in the country, while Kentucky has slid a bit in recent weeks. This line is as large as it is thanks to Alabama’s explosive offense which has put up 38 points in every game so far. Still, Kentucky has a solid defense and slows down the pace of games to the point that I like them as 30+ point underdogs.
Kentucky +31 -113 (1 unit)
Purdue @ Minnesota
The air has come out of Minnesota’s team quickly, as they’re off to a 1-3 start after being ranked in the preseason. I think this is a bit overblown though- the Golden Gophers still have more talent than Purdue, The Boilermakers squeaked by Illinois, and while their win over Iowa is certainly nice, it was pretty fluky.
Minnesota +3 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 11
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.60 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Week 10: -3.68 units
Season: +22.99 units
I didn’t bet many units last week, but lost my two 2-unit picks on UNLV and Florida Atlantic. Both games were close, with UNLV allowing a late touchdown to allow Fresno State to cover while Florida Atlantic won a rockfight against Western Kentucky.
I had more picks lined up this week, but two games I liked have been taken off the board due to COVID (Auburn/Mississippi State and Utah/UCLA) and other lines have moved in my favor too much since the open (Coastal Carolina/Troy and Wake Forest/North Carolina)..
(Update 11/14 6:30 PM Central):
Cal’s game with Arizona State was cancelled due to COVID, they are now playing UCLA instead. I am adding a 1 unit play on California -3 -113 in that game.
Kent State @ Bowling Green (Tuesday 6:30 PM Central)
My model thinks that Bowling Green is the worst team in the FBS, only UMass can compare to the Falcons in their ineptitude. Bowling Green was the third worst team in FBS last year and returns almost nothing on offense from that team. They weren’t inspiring last week when they were blown out by Toledo. Kent State is a solid mid-tier MAC team and should roll here.
Kent State -19.5 -115 (2 units)
California @ Arizona State (Saturday 9:30 PM Central)
There’s a good chance this game doesn’t happen as Cal had to cancel their game last week due to COVID protocols. If the Bears are healthy enough to play, I think they’re the most under-valued team in the Pac-12. They return nearly every significant contributor on offense from last year’s team and are a fringe top 25 team, and I like them for a medium sized play here.
California +4.5 -109 (2 units)
Wisconsin @ Michigan (Saturday 6:30 PM Central)
This is another game that is in jeopardy, as Wisconsin has cancelled their last two games due to a large COVID outbreak. Even with the number of players Wisconsin could have out, they’re quite a bit better than a Michigan team that has been quite poor so far this season. Michigan’s run game has been non-existent and their suspect front seven will be gashed by a potent Wisconsin rushing attack.
Wisconsin -2.5 -114 (2 units)
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International (Friday 6:00 PM Central)
This is a massive rivalry game for both teams, but FAU is a clear favorite. FIU is the only FBS team who has lost to an FCS team this year, although the Jacksonville State squad they lost to would be favored over a dozen FBS teams. FIU has underperformed a bit this year and Florida Atlantic is still one of my most under-valued teams in FBS, I like them for a small play here.
Florida Atlantic -8.5 -110 (1 unit)
Rice @ Louisiana Tech (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)
This line is a bit perplexing to me. Rice has barely played this year due to significant COVID issues, but has not really impressed as they lost to a really bad MTSU squad. Louisiana Tech has played 7 times, and they’ve been a middle of the pack CUSA team. I’m still holding onto my preseason priors pretty strongly with Rice, which indicate that they’re mediocre at best.
Louisiana Tech +1.5 -114 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 10
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.6 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Week 9: -1.01 units
Season: +26.87 units
Another underwhelming week despite hitting Michigan State ML at +1300. I won on Michigan State and Kentucky, but lost on Air Force and Charlotte among others.
Fresno State @ UNLV
UNLV has gotten off to a bad start, losing blowouts to Nevada and San Diego State. Still, I would’ve made this line UNLV -5 before the season and I don’t think they’ve performed far enough below expectations to justify moving this line 16 points. Fresno State is the better team for sure, but I think UNLV can cover here.
UNLV +11 -109 (2 units)
UNLV ML +310 (0.5 units)
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic
Few teams have been as ravaged by COVID as FAU, and they’ve still only played 3 games this year. However, their defense has performed very well in all 3 and I think they’re the second best team in CUSA. WKU is yet to win a game convincingly this year, this line should be closer to two touchdowns.
Florida Atlantic -6.5 -114 (2 units)
Troy @ Georgia Southern
Both of these teams look to be among the better teams in the Sun Belt and are likely to head to a bowl. I think they’re pretty even this year, and I’m surprised that the Eagles are a mild underdog here, I think that their defense is among the best in the G5.
Georgia Southern +3.5 -112 (1 unit)
Liberty @ Virginia Tech
Liberty is undefeated and this year’s team looks like the best in their short history. Virginia Tech has stumbled a bit out of the gate, dropping a surprising game to Wake Forest a few weeks ago and Justin Fuente looks to be in some danger of getting fired. Liberty is a hard team to pin down given how weak their schedule has been thus far, but I think this line should be closer to single digits.
Liberty +16.5 -109 (1 unit)
SMU @ Temple
Temple was playing fine all season before getting blown out by Tulane last week. I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to that- the Owls are still a mid-tier team in the conference. SMU, meanwhile, is not as good as their top 25 ranking would suggest.
Temple +17.5 -108 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 9
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.6 units
Week 8: -4.13 units
Season: +27.88 units
Last week was my worst of the year, with some bigger misses on some of the teams that started their season last week. In the Mountain West, I was very bullish on Wyoming and Air Force, which didn’t pay off. And in the Big Ten, I miscalculated on Iowa. Still, I won enough elsewhere that I only lost a touch more than 4 units on the week.
Georgia @ Kentucky
Georgia is pretty clearly the second best team in the SEC, and has a legitimate shot at the playoff. Kentucky put up an abysmal showing against Mizzou last week that has led to them being a big underdog here. Every Kentucky game this season has been a dogfight and they’re a tough team to blowout, I like the Wildcats and the points here.
Kentucky +17 -112 (3 units)
Kentucky ML +600 (0.5 units)
Boise State @ Air Force
The conventional wisdom is that Boise State is the best team in the Mountain West, just since they conventionally have been. I think there’s a lot of talent on the Broncos’ roster, but I’m not convinced they’re head and shoulders better than the rest of the league. I like Air Force here, the Falcons are better than they showed against San Jose State last week.
Air Force +14 -114 (3 units)
Air Force ML +450 (0.5 units)
LSU @ Auburn
Auburn is quite lucky to be 3-2, they’ve had multiple questionable calls bounce their way so far this season. They’ve now fallen out of my top 25 and could be a bottom half SEC team. LSU looks to have figured things out after a nice win against South Carolina and should stay on track here.
LSU -2.5 -109 (2 units)
Charlotte @ Duke
Duke may have made a blunder choosing Charlotte as their non-conference opponent this year, as the 49ers could be fielding their best team in program history. I love betting G5 teams on the road against shaky P5 teams, and will be doing so here. Charlotte’s only losses are to solid App State and FAU teams and they’re better than a decent number of P5 teams.
Charlotte +9.5 -109 (2 units)
Charlotte ML +270 (0.5 units)
Michigan State @ Michigan
Michigan looked great last week against Minnesota and Michigan State looked horrible against Rutgers. I think this line overreacted to those results- Michigan State suffered from some bad luck against Rutgers, with 7 turnovers including 5 fumbles lost. That’s not going to happen every week, and the Spartans’ defense can help them cover.
Michigan State +24.5 -110 (2 units)
Michigan State ML +1300 (0.25 units)
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State
Coastal Carolina has been one of the surprises of the season so far, earning their first top 25 ranking in program history. I think the Chanticleers are legit, as they rank #40 in my ratings this week. Georgia State is going to put up some points, but has one of the weaker defenses in the Sun Belt and I don’t think they can keep up here.
Coastal Carolina -3 -109 (1 unit)
TCU @ Baylor
Both of these teams have disappointed so far this year and are looking to avoid a further slip. I’m more worried about TCU, who was quite lucky to pick up their one win of the year against Texas and were not competitive against Oklahoma last week. I like Baylor for a small play here.
Baylor +2 -109 (1 unit)
Air Force, Charlotte ML Parlay +1935 (0.1 units)
Kentucky, Michigan State ML Parlay +9700 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 8
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Week 7: -3.6 units
Last week was my first losing week of the year. LSU’s game got cancelled, and I lost my other two picks. With the Big Ten and Mountain West coming back this week, there’s a lot more disagreement between my model and the market than there has been the last few weeks.
Stay tuned for updates here this week- there were two more picks I had (Northwestern -10.5 and Illinois +19.5) where the line has gone off the board at my book, if they get re-listed at good prices I will add the picks here.
Iowa @ Purdue (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)
I am higher on Iowa than pretty much everyone else, they’re currently #10 in my ratings. The main reason is that the Hawkeyes have an incredibly talented offensive line, easily one of the nation’s best. They were a legitimate top 15 team last year and have the returning talent to be similarly good this year.
Iowa -3.5 -105 (3 units)
Hawaii @ Fresno State (Saturday 6:30 PM Central)
Hawaii had their best team in years last year, picking up 10 wins. They lost star QB Cole McDonald, but my model still expects them to have a solid offense this year. Fresno State was pretty bad last year and is breaking in a new system on both sides of the ball, I like the Rainbow Warriors here.
Hawaii +3.5 -110 (3 units)
Air Force @ San Jose State (Saturday 9:30 PM Central)
Air Force is the only Mountain West team to have played so far this year when they demolished Navy. I bet the Falcons there and am doing so again here- they are the second best team in the league in my opinion. San Jose State was much improved last year, but has a long way to go before being able to compete with the top of the conference
Air Force -6.5 -115 (2 units)
Wyoming @ Nevada (Saturday 6 PM Central)
I expect to be betting on Wyoming often this season, they’re perhaps the team I am most bullish on relative to the consensus in college football this year. Of their 5 losses last year, 4 were by 1 score or less. I always emphasize talent on the lines, and they return most everyone of note on both the O-Line and D-Line. If I didn’t like Nevada a decent amount, this would be a bigger bet.
Wyoming -4.5 -113 (2 units)
Florida Atlantic @ Marshall (Saturday 1:30 PM Central)
I’ve been itching to bet on FAU for weeks now, but their games keep getting postponed due to COVID. The Owls finished last year as a legitimate top 25 team, and return a decent amount of their offense from that squad. Marshall is undoubtedly the best team in CUSA, but I think FAU could be #2.
Florida Atlantic +16.5 -114 (2 units)
FAU ML +600 (0.5 units)
Tulsa @ South Florida (Friday 6:30 PM Central)
This line is just puzzling to me. Tulsa is clearly solid, they’ve played 2 games so far against top 20 teams (Oklahoma State and UCF) and split them. South Florida, meanwhile, is clearly the worst team in the American after their drubbing at the hands of ECU a few weeks ago. Tulsa should be at least a two touchdown favorite here.
Tulsa -10.5 -106 (2 units)
Michigan @ Minnesota (Saturday 6:30 PM Central)
Minnesota was one of the most exciting teams in college football last year, posting their best year in decades. The Golden Gophers have a top 10 offense this year as they return a ton of talent from last year’s squad. Michigan, meanwhile, is going to be weak on the lines and has less skill talent than you’d think.
Minnesota +3.5 -118 (2 units)
Penn State @ Indiana (Saturday 2:30 PM Central)
Indiana was a fun story last year, as they got their first AP ranking since the 1990s in November. They’ve gotten a bit of hype thanks to some nice skill talent, but outside of a handful of playmakers on offense there is not much legitimate Big Ten talent on the roster. Penn State has a legitimate shot at the playoff and should roll here.
Penn State -6.5 -114 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 7
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Week 6: +0.14 units
Last week was my worst of the season, but I still finished barely in the black. The FAU game got postponed, but I did get a nice bet in on UTSA +35 who covered with ease. Texas State was my other multi-unit bet, but they were blown out of the water by Troy.
Western Kentucky @ UAB (Saturday, 12:30 PM Central)
Western Kentucky has not had a great season so far, with their only win coming over a bad Middle Tennessee team. Still, I think there’s at least a dozen FBS teams playing who are worse than them. I don’t think the market has caught up with the fact that UAB’s defense is not as strong as it was last year, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown.
Western Kentucky +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky ML +370 (0.5 units)
LSU @ Florida (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
LSU presents a weird edge case for my model, as they finished last year as one of the best teams of the decade but return very little talent from that team. It’s not uncommon for the best teams to lose a lot of players to the draft, but it’s rare for it to happen to the degree that it has to LSU. Still, this line seems like a big overreaction to their first two games. This game is going to be a shootout, but Florida’s defense is suspect enough that I like LSU to cover.
LSU +13 -110 (2 units)
LSU ML +340 (0.5 units)
Army @ UTSA (Saturday, 12:30 PM Central)
I was bullish about UTSA in the preseason and they’ve surpassed my high expectations I had for them. I’ve bet them twice already this season and am going to continue to do so here. Army’s offense has looked pretty ugly this year, and I’m not confident they can do much against a UTSA defense that held BYU in check last week.
UTSA +7 -110 (1 unit)
LSU ML, Western Kentucky ML, UTSA ML +6104 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 6
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Week 5: +5.54 units
Last week was solid once again, with the highlight being Tulsa beating UCF. Hitting Tulsa ML ensured I finished the week in the green for the fifth week in a row.
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Mississippi
I’m not sure there’s a more undervalued team in college football than the Florida Atlantic Owls. They were a little shaky last week against Charlotte, but return the core of a team that was a fringe top 25 time last year. Southern Miss is a dumpster fire who has already fired their coach this year, I like the Owls here.
Florida Atlantic -2.5 -110 (3 units)
UTSA @ BYU
BYU has shattered all preseason expectations, scoring nearly 50 points a game in 3 blowout wins. UTSA lost for the first time last week, but still looks like an improved team from last year. I know BYU has an explosive offense, but 34.5 is a massive spread and I think the Roadrunners have enough quality on defense to cover.
UTSA +35 -110 (2 units)
Texas State @ Troy
This is the second time in as many games I’m picking Texas State. The Bobcats are much improved over last year, there are at least a dozen teams playing in FBS worse than them. Troy is breaking in a new offense, and I’m not convinced by their win over a horrid MTSU team. I think Texas State is worth a small bet here.
Texas State +8.5 -110 (2 units)
Texas State ML +235 (0.5 units)
Charlotte @ North Texas
Charlotte is off to an 0-2 start, but they’ve played two of the toughest teams in the Group of Five. Will Healy’s squad is significantly improved from last year’s squad, and by my numbers is the 4th best team in CUSA. North Texas’ defense is a complete mess, I like the 49ers here in a high scoring affair.
Charlotte -3 -110 (2 units)
LSU @ Missouri
This is a weird game, as it got moved from Baton Rouge to Columbia due to the hurricane in Louisiana. I think there’s been a bit of an overreaction to LSU thus far. Their defense is clearly not great, but Missouri has shown absolutely nothing thus far indicating that they’re capable of hanging with LSU.
LSU -14 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 5
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Week 4: +12.84 units
Last week was once again very solid. The highlight was hitting Kansas State ML at +1566, the Wildcats came on strong in the second half to pull up the biggest upset of the season thus far. Texas State ML nearly hit as well, the Bobcats fell apart at the end of the game. Of my spread bets, only LSU failed to cover.
UTSA @ UAB
UTSA is 3-0, although they’ve certainly been quite lucky to get there with two very close wins. UAB has been solid thus far, although I think people are overrating them for keeping it close with Miami in Week 2. The Blazers are certainly the better team and have a stout defense, but a line close to three touchdowns is aggressive.
UTSA +20 -110 (3 units)
UTSA ML +900 (0.5 units)
Louisiana Tech @ BYU
There’s no doubt that BYU has been one of the surprises of the season thus far, as they’ve hammered Navy and Troy in their first two games. However, I think Louisiana Tech is better than both of those teams. I think people are overreacting to BYU’s performance this year, I would’ve had this at -6.5 in the preseason and we simply don’t have enough data to move this line 17 points.
Louisiana Tech +24 -110 (2 units)
Louisiana Tech ML +1500 (0.5 units)
Tulsa @ UCF
I liked Tulsa two weeks ago when they nearly knocked off Oklahoma State, and I think they have another solid shot at an upset here. UCF has outperformed my high expectations for them so far this year, but I think people are chalking up the Tulsa/OK State game to the Cowboys’ injuries and not the strength of the Golden Hurricane.
Tulsa +21 -110 (2 units)
Tulsa ML +850 (0.5 units)
Navy @ Air Force
This is a weird game, as Air Force currently only has two games firmly on the schedule while Navy has a full season planned. Air Force was sneaky good last year, finishing at the edge of the top 25 in my ratings. The Falcons have a lot of new faces as is expected for a service academy, but they return enough that I think they should be a more clear favorite here.
Air Force -2 +132 (2 units)
Baylor @ West Virginia
Both of these teams have played roughly in line with expectations so far this season. Baylor thrashed Kansas, while West Virginia beat EKU and lost to Oklahoma State. I liked Baylor a lot in the preseason and I don’t think everyone has adjusted to how good the Bears are. With the top of the Big 12 looking extremely murky, I think there is a strong chance they can make the Big 12 title game again this year.
Baylor -3 -110 (1 unit)
Auburn @ Georgia
This is one of our first top 10 matchups of the season, and arguably features the top two defenses in the country. Georgia was extremely flat against a horrid Arkansas team last week, and my system remains unconvinced that their offense is capable of much here. Auburn’s front seven is extremely scary, and I like the Tigers to cover in a low scoring affair.
Auburn +6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Auburn ML +200 (0.5 units)
UTSA, Louisiana Tech ML Parlay +15900 (0.1 units)
UTSA, Tulsa ML Parlay +9400 (0.1 units)
Louisiana Tech, Tulsa ML Parlay +15100 (0.1 units)
UTSA, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa ML Parlay +151900 (0.1 units)
College Football Picks Week 4
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Week 3: +5.37 units
Two of my four picks last week got cancelled due to COVID, but the other 2 (Tulsa and Syracuse) both hit. Tulsa ML looked very juicy for a while before a late run by Oklahoma State put them over the top. I was going to have one more pick this week (FAU -3), but that game was cancelled today as USF has too many players out with COVID.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
Kansas State laid a big egg in their only game this year, losing at home to Arkansas State. However, I don’t think people realize how strong of a team Arkansas State is- the Wildcats did not lose to a complete nobody. I think Oklahoma is quite overvalued- they return only 33% of their offensive yardage from a team that was borderline top 10 last year, In this matchup last year, I had Kansas State +23.5 and they won outright, I like K-State again here. The only reason this isn’t a bigger pick is due to uncertainty surrounding player availability for K-State.
Kansas State +28 -110 (4 units)
Kansas State ML +1566 (0.5 units)
Mississippi State @ LSU
The defending national champs have new faces at pretty much every position, and rank among the least experienced teams in the nation. Normally my model loves betting against inexperienced teams early on, but not here as I think people have overreacted to how much LSU has lost. There’s still enough pieces on this LSU roster that they should make quick work of a Mississippi State team breaking in a new scheme under Mike Leach.
LSU -16.5 -115 (3 units)
Texas State @ Boston College
Texas State is the rare team that has played 3 games in 3 weeks so far, and the early results are encouraging. The Bobcats have been a complete doormat since moving to FBS a few years ago, but handled ULM and was competitive against SMU and UTSA. Boston College got a nice win over Duke last week, but my system is still not convinced their offense is capable of covering a 17.5 point spread here.
Texas State +17.5 -110 (2 units)
Texas State ML +560 (0.5 units)
NC State @ Virginia Tech
NC State won a shootout against Wake Forest last week, but are still in the bottom tier of the ACC. Virginia Tech is yet to play this year, but I’m quite bullish on the Hokies as they are lead by an extremely experienced offensive line (115 starts returning). I think VT is the 4th best team in the league behind Clemson, Notre Dame and UNC, they should handle NC State with ease.
Virginia Tech -6.5 -115 (2 units)
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse
This is going to be my third week in a row betting on Syracuse. It’s clear that their offense is inept, but their defense is solid. Georgia Tech has risen too much in the public perception for beating Florida State- the fact of the matter is that it’s not that the Yellow Jackets are any good, it’s just that the Seminoles are thoroughly mediocre. I like the Orange for a small play here.
Syracuse +8 -110 (1 unit)
Kansas @ Baylor
I believe this is the fourth or fifth time I have bet against Kansas in the last two years, and I think all of those bets have hit. My system just does not see the Jayhawks operating on the same planet as anyone else in the Big 12. Baylor is my sneaky pick to do well in the Big 12 this year- they’re not as depleted from last year’s team as some may think, especially up front. The Bears are worth a unit here.
Baylor -17.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 3
Week 1: +1.82 units
Week 2: +9.9 units
Last week was quite solid, with my biggest picks of Louisiana and Coastal Carolina both hitting. In addition, I won two of my three moneyline underdogs, with Louisiana +340 and Georgia Tech +380 cashing. There’s fewer juicy games this week, although the schedule expands a bit next week with conference schedules beginning in the Big 12 and SEC.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State
There’s a lot of hype surrounding Oklahoma State, and understandably so given that they return 87% of their offensive yards from last year, including star RB Chuba Hubbard. The Pokes are definitely improved from last year, but they were a bit lucky to finish 8-5 last year. Tulsa, meanwhile, has one of the most experienced offenses in the country and was unlucky to go 4-8 last year. The Golden Hurricane are sneaky good and I like them quite a bit here.
Tulsa +21.5 -110 (4 units)
Tulsa ML +1100 (0.5 units)
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
With fewer teams playing fall football this year, some dubious teams are going to be ranked. Pittsburgh is among them, coming in at #25 in the AP Poll this week. Although Pitt went 8-5 last year and Syracuse went 5-7, the Panthers weren’t actually that much better as they had much better luck in close games. I think this spread is a bit overdone, Syracuse is not as bad a team as they might appear.
Syracuse +21.5 -110 (3 units)
Syracuse ML +1200 (0.5 units)
Houston @ Baylor
This game was just put on the schedule over the weekend, as Houston and Baylor both had games cancelled. Houston’s season fell off the rails last year, and they don’t even return a ton from that team that failed to make a bowl. Baylor, meanwhile, is breaking in a new head coach but still brings back some talent from last year’s team that was inches from the playoff. I like the Bears here for my first pick of a favorite this season.
Baylor -6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Charlotte @ North Carolina
Charlotte put in quite a good fight last week against a very strong Appalachian State team before falling apart in the 4th quarter. The 49ers are not the laughingstock of FBS that they were a few years ago, there’s nearly 20 teams playing fall football I have below them. North Carolina is deserving of their borderline top 10 ranking, but are facing a stronger opponent than most realize.
Charlotte +27 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 2
Week 1: 1-0 +1.82 units
2020 Total: 1-0 +1.82 units
A nice beginning to the season with Arkansas State covering against Memphis, although it appears a handful of Memphis players have come down with coronavirus since the game.
Louisiana @ Iowa State
Louisiana is one of the most undervalued teams in the country. They finished last year as a borderline top 25 team. They return 75% of their offensive yards and 100 offensive line starts from that team, putting them near the top of the experience charts. Iowa State is a solid team themselves, but this line is assuming Louisiana is a solid Sun Belt team, as opposed to an elite one.
Louisiana +12 -110 (4 units)
Louisiana ML +340 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina @ Kansas
Coastal got their biggest win in program history on the road against Kansas last year, and I think they have a good chance to pull off the upset again. As bad as Kansas was last year, I expect them to be worse as the offense is completely barren of returning talent outside star RB Pooka Williams. Coastal returns a lot from last year’s squad, and I think this line should be near a pick'.
Coastal Carolina +6.5 -110 (4 units)
Louisiana Monroe @ Army
ULM was one of my favorite teams last year, and they nearly pulled off a massive upset against Florida State in September. They’re a much worse team this year, but I like them here. Army’s style of play makes it difficult for them to blow out teams, and I still have them as a bottom half team even after their big win over Middle Tennessee last week.
Louisiana Monroe +22.5 -110 (2 units)
ULM ML +750 (0.5 units)
Georgia Tech @ Florida State
I bet against Florida State frequently last season, and will likely be continuing that this year. After quarterback, offensive line is the most important position for returning experience and the Seminoles are a disaster there once again. Georgia Tech is the most experienced team in the country as they enter year 2 of their new offense and I think they have a decent shot at the upset.
Georgia Tech +13 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech ML +380 (0.5 units)
UAB @ Miami
UAB has one of the top defenses in the Group of Five, and is easily in the top tier of Conference USA. Miami lives in the middle class of the ACC right now, they should be a decent favorite here, but not over two touchdowns. They’re in a bit of a state of flux with plenty of new transfers coming in, which my system is a bit skeptical of.
UAB +14.5 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse @ North Carolina
Few teams have been more hyped in the offseason than North Carolina, and it’s easy to understand why as they return 95% of their offensive yardage from last year. Still, I think this spread is a little overdone. Syracuse was not as bad as their record indicated last year, they’d have to be the worst team in the ACC to justify being a 3 touchdown underdog here.
Syracuse +23 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Picks Week 1
My college football picks are back for 2020. With a limited slate of games this week, I only have 1 pick. Last year’s picks were quite successful, finishing +33.74 units on the year.
Arkansas State @ Memphis
Memphis is one of the top Group of Five teams in the country and figures to be second favorites to win the AAC after UCF. However, Arkansas State is one of the top teams in the Sun Belt, and returns over 80% of its offensive production from last year’s 8-5 squad. I like the Red Wolves here.
Arkansas State +18 -110 (2 units)
2020 Preseason College Football Preseason Top 25
Ordinarily around this time I’d have done a significant amount of work preparing for the college football season, but COVID has obviously thrown a wrench in that. I’m still quite skeptical that any meaningful college football is going to be played this fall, but the season is now close enough that I might as well preview the football that is scheduled to be played.
To start off, here’s my model’s preseason top 25 for the teams that are currently scheduled to play fall football. I made some minor tweaks to my model over the offseason, but it fundamentally hasn’t changed that much in recent years. While it may diverge a bit early in the season, in the long run my model tends to converge towards well-known predictive systems like SP+ and Sagarin which are strong predictors of betting lines.
LSU
LSU presents an interesting case for my system. 2019 LSU finished the year as the highest rated team in years, so despite the tremendous amount of talent they lost, they remain #1. The 10 game conference schedule is actually not that bad for the Tigers, as they play the 3 weakest teams in the East in Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
Clemson
There’s really only one tricky game on Clemson’s schedule, a monumental clash at Notre Dame on November 7th. Aside from that, Virginia Tech will offer the toughest challenge but I still have them as 2 touchdown favorites there. It would be a total shock to not see Trevor Lawrence’s squad at the top of the ACC come December.
Alabama
Alabama will be breaking in a new starting quarterback in Mac Jones, but like LSU, Alabama drew a somewhat favorable schedule from the East that adds Kentucky and Missouri to their slate. They figure to be at least touchdown favorites in every game except their trip to Baton Rouge.
Notre Dame
If a full season is actually played this fall, no team will be more interesting to watch than Notre Dame as they play a full conference slate for the first time in their history. Buoyed by an experienced offensive line, they’re easily the second best team in the ACC. They have the aforementioned game with Clemson at home, and it is quite likely that they’ll face off again in the ACC Championship in December.
Florida
For the first time in a few years, Florida is the definitive favorite to win the SEC East, not Georgia. The Gators have a front loaded schedule that features games against Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia before midseason- if they manage to make it to November at the top of the division, they should be able to make it to the SEC title game.
Texas
For the second year in a row, I’m picking Texas over Oklahoma to win the Big 12. The ‘Horns have one of the most experienced QBs in the country and return much of their skill position players around Ehlinger. Their season will be defined by a tough 3 game stretch against Oklahoma, Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Appalachian State
App State’s placement is definitely inflated by the lack of Big Ten and Pac-12 teams, but the Mountaineers are once again one of the most underrated teams in the country. They’ll be massive favorites in every game except their showdown with Louisiana.
Georgia
This figures to be the weakest Georgia team in a few years, as they break in a new quarterback and return just 33% of their offensive production from last year. It’s possible they’re one of the best teams this year and go 6-4, given 5 of their first 6 games are against teams on this list.
Auburn
Baylor
UCF
Texas A&M
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Oklahoma State
Kentucky
Memphis
Florida Atlantic
Cincinnati
Louisville
Iowa State
Marshall