Bracketology 3/14/2021 AM

A crazy Saturday was headlined by two bid stealers, Georgetown and Oregon State. I have put both the Hoyas and the Beavers on the 12 line for now, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Oregon State get a 13 seed instead.

The bubble comes down to 10 teams for 5 spots for me. Among those 10, I feel pretty good that Drake/Louisville/Syracuse are in and Mississippi/Colorado State/Boise State are out. UCLA, Utah State, Wichita State and Saint Louis could go either way. My guess is that most other bracketologists will go with the same field I have, with some subbing out Utah State for Wichita State. I do think many people underappreciate how much danger UCLA is in, their profile is quite shaky.

My final update (including a bracket in addition to a seed list) will be posted today around 4:30 PM Central- I’ll have a contingency in case Cincinnati beats Houston. If the Bearcats do pull the upset, I expect them to be a 13 seed.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Oklahoma State

3: Texas, Houston, Arkansas, Kansas

4: West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia, Florida State

5: Tennessee, Creighton, USC, Villanova

6: Colorado, Missouri, BYU, Oregon

7: Wisconsin, San Diego State, LSU, Texas Tech

8: Clemson, North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma

9: Florida, Georgia Tech, Loyola Chicago, Rutgers

10: St. Bonaventure, Virginia Tech, VCU, Michigan State

11: Maryland, Drake, (Louisville/UCLA), (Syracuse/Utah State)

12: Georgetown, Colgate, Winthrop, Oregon State

13: UC Santa Barbara, North Texas, Ohio, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Morehead State, Eastern Washington

15: Drexel, Grand Canyon, Iona, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Appalachian State), (Norfolk State/Texas Southern)

Also Considered: Wichita State, Saint Louis, Mississippi, Colorado State, Boise State

Moving In: Georgetown, Oregon State, North Texas, Ohio, Norfolk State, Texas Southern

Moving Out: Wichita State, Colorado State, Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Morgan State, Prairie View A&M

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Pac-12: 5

Big East: 4

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

Mountain West: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/13/2021

We’re now less than 48 hours from Selection Sunday and there’s still more movement on the bubble to come. For now, I have moved Mississippi out of the field and put Utah State in their place. The Aggies have a home sweep against San Diego State to their name, and their NET rating looks quite good compared to the rest of the bubble. Still, they’d be advised to beat the Aztecs for a third time today and remove all doubt about their tournament future.

A few bid stealers still lurk- Georgetown, Oregon State, Cincinnati and Memphis. The math indicates the most likely scenario is that we have 1 bid stolen this year although it’s possible there’s more. Slotting these teams into the seed list will be a challenge given the lack of precedent for major conference bid stealers, 2008 Georgia is the main example that springs to mind.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Kansas, Texas

4: West Virginia, Virginia, Florida State, Purdue

5: Tennessee, Colorado, USC, Villanova

6: Creighton, Missouri, BYU, Texas Tech

7: Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State, Florida

8: Oklahoma, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: LSU, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure

10: VCU, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia Tech

11: Wichita State, Michigan State, Drake, UCLA

12: (Louisville/Colorado State), (Syracuse/Utah State), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Buffalo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Abilene Christian

15: Grand Canyon, Iona, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Mississippi, Saint Louis, Boise State, Xavier

Also Considered: Memphis, Duke

Moving In: Buffalo, Eastern Washington, Utah State

Moving Out: Toledo, Southern Utah, Mississippi

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/12/2021

Conference tournament Thursday doesn’t disappoint and yesterday was no exception. A few teams essentially wrapped up their bids- I’d count North Carolina, Maryland and Georgia Tech in this group. As far as changes to the field, I moved Syracuse into the field despite their loss to Virginia, replacing Boise State. They could move back out if Utah State beats Colorado State in the Mountain West semis tonight.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas

4: West Virginia, Purdue, Virginia, Florida State

5: USC, Tennessee, Villanova, Creighton

6: Colorado, Missouri, BYU, Texas Tech

7: Wisconsin, Florida, Clemson, San Diego State

8: Oklahoma, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Rutgers, Virginia Tech, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: North Carolina, Maryland, VCU, Georgia Tech

11: Wichita State, Michigan State, Drake, UCLA

12: (Colorado State/Louisville), (Mississippi/Syracuse), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Grand Canyon, Iona, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/Morgan State)

First Four Out: Saint Louis, Utah State, Boise State, Xavier

Next Four Out: SMU, Seton Hall, Memphis, Duke

Moving In: Syracuse, Morgan State

Moving Out: Boise State, North Carolina A&T

Bracketology 3/11/2021

Xavier fell to Butler yesterday. The Musketeers are going to be out of my field on Selection Sunday, they stand a small chance of making it in to the committee’s but they’re likely headed to the NIT. Syracuse would jump into the field with a win against Virginia today, replacing Mississippi. Many teams outside of the field play today in must-win situations, such as Utah State, SMU, Duke, Seton Hall and St. John’s.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton

6: Colorado, Texas Tech, Missouri, BYU

7: Wisconsin, Florida, Clemson, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Wichita State, Drake

12: (Colorado State/Louisville), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Grand Canyon, Iona, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Syracuse, Saint Louis, Utah State, Xavier

Next Four Out: SMU, Duke, Memphis, Seton Hall

Also Considered: St. John’s

Moving In: Iona

Moving Out: Siena

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/10/2021

Gonzaga locked up the #1 overall seed with their comeback win over BYU last night. The bubble games of power conference tournaments start in earnest today. Xavier, Duke, NC State and Syracuse all face must-win games today to keep their tournament hopes alive.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton

6: Colorado, Clemson, Texas Tech, Missouri

7: BYU, Wisconsin, Florida, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Drake

12: (Wichita State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Siena, Grand Canyon, Drexel, Cleveland State

16: Hartford, Oral Roberts, (Mount St. Mary’s/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, North Carolina State, Duke

Also Considered: Memphis, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond

Moving In: Mount St. Mary’s

Moving Out: Bryant

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/9/2021

Two more bids were punched yesterday, with UNC Greensboro and Appalachian State heading to the tournament. Wes Miller has led UNCG to their fourth straight top 100 finish, a pretty remarkable feat for that program.

Looking ahead to today, the ACC tournament starts with Duke playing in the opening round. A win over Boston College is a must to keep tournament hopes alive.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton

6: Colorado, Clemson, BYU, Texas Tech

7: Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Drake

12: (Wichita State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: Bryant, Siena, Grand Canyon, Drexel

16: Cleveland State, Hartford, (Oral Roberts/Prairie View A&M), (Appalachian State/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, North Carolina State, Duke

Also Considered: Memphis, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond

Moving In: Oral Roberts, Drexel, Appalachian State

Moving Out: South Dakota State, Hofstra, Georgia State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/8/2021

Sunday featured two big developments on the bubble. The first was Loyola beating Drake in the Arch Madness finals. I think Drake is probably in anyways, but a First Four trip is quite possible and it wouldn’t shock me if they ended up missing the field all together. The second was Michigan State beating Michigan in East Lansing. That all but locks up a bid for the Spartans.

I’ll be updating things daily from now until Selection Sunday. Monday is going to be the quietest day of the week before things really amp up in the power conferences later in the week.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Tennessee, Creighton

6: Colorado, Clemson, BYU, Texas Tech

7: Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Connecticut, Oregon

9: Virginia Tech, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland

11: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Drake

12: (Wichita State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: South Dakota State, Bryant, Georgia State, Siena

16: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, (Hofstra/Hartford), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, North Carolina State, Duke

Also Considered: Memphis, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond

Moving In: Hofstra

Moving Out: James Madison

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/7/2021

A busy Saturday leads to changes up and down the seed list. At the bubble, I have moved Xavier out after another Q2 loss to Marquette. In their place is Ole Miss, who is in the field for the first time in weeks. Overall, it was a pretty weak showing from bubble teams yesterday with Xavier, Saint Louis, Seton Hall and Duke all losing.

Towards the top of the seed list, Villanova is sliding fast and may not even be a protected seed if they are bounced early from the Big East tournament. Illinois has all but locked up the final 1 seed as well.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa, Houston

3: Arkansas, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State

4: Texas, Purdue, Villanova, USC

5: Florida State, Virginia, Creighton, Tennessee

6: Colorado, Clemson, Texas Tech, BYU

7: Wisconsin, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma

8: San Diego State, Connecticut, Oregon, Virginia Tech

9: Loyola Chicago, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, LSU

10: VCU, Maryland, North Carolina, UCLA

11: Georgia Tech, Drake, Louisville, Wichita State

12: (Michigan State/Colorado State), (Boise State/Mississippi), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Toledo, Liberty

14: UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian

15: South Dakota State, Bryant, Georgia State, Siena

16: James Madison, Grand Canyon, (Cleveland State/Hartford), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Xavier, Saint Louis, Utah State, Syracuse

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, SMU, Utah State, Memphis

Also Considered: Duke, St. John’s, Providence, Richmond

Moving In: Mississippi, Morehead State, Southern Utah, Bryant, Georgia State, Hartford

Moving Out: Xavier, Belmont, Eastern Washington, Wagner, Texas State, Vermont

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 7

Pac-12: 4

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/6/2021

Liberty is the first team to punch their tournament bid, they’ll represent the ASUN in the tournament even if they lose to North Alabama. Colorado State lost a wacky game against Nevada but remains my last team in the field for now.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston

3: Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas

4: Florida State, Creighton, Purdue, Oklahoma State

5: Virginia, Texas, USC, Wisconsin

6: Colorado, BYU, Tennessee, Texas Tech

7: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Clemson

8: San Diego State, Oregon, Loyola Chicago, UCLA

9: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, Maryland

10: St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, North Carolina, VCU

11: LSU, Drake, Georgia Tech, Wichita State

12: (Michigan State/Boise State), (Xavier/Colorado State), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo

14: Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington

15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena, Grand Canyon

16: Cleveland State, Texas State, (Wagner/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: Saint Louis, Seton Hall, SMU, Duke

Next Four Out: Indiana, Memphis, Syracuse, Western Kentucky

Also Considered: Mississippi, Utah State

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/5/2021

We’re now less than 10 days from Selection Sunday. The last two nights were a little quieter on the bubble, Seton Hall dropped their third straight against UConn and has a tough game at St. John’s to end the regular season. I dropped the Pirates from the field and moved Boise State in in their place.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston

3: Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas

4: Florida State, Creighton, Purdue, Oklahoma State

5: Virginia, Texas, USC, Wisconsin

6: Colorado, BYU, Tennessee, Texas Tech

7: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Clemson

8: San Diego State, Oregon, Loyola Chicago, UCLA

9: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, Maryland

10: Rutgers, North Carolina, St. Bonaventure, LSU

11: VCU, Drake, Georgia Tech, Wichita State

12: (Michigan State/Colorado State), (Xavier/Boise State), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo

14: Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington

15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena, Grand Canyon

16: Texas State, Wagner, (Cleveland State/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: Saint Louis, Western Kentucky, Seton Hall, SMU

Next Four Out: Duke, Indiana, Memphis, Syracuse

Also Considered: Mississippi, Utah State

Moving In: Seton Hall, Cleveland State

Moving Out: Boise State, Wright State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/3/2021

A busy two days on the bubble once again. Michigan State and Georgia Tech continue to shore up their tournament cases with wins over fellow bubble teams Indiana and Duke. At the same time, some non-power bubble teams are playing themselves into trouble, as St. Bonaventure lost to Dayton while Richmond and Boise State took Q4 losses to Saint Joe’s and Fresno State, respectively.

The bubble is starting to shrink, the top ~40 teams in the seed list are pretty safe while any team beyond the Next Four Out is pretty far from the field. There might be one surprise or two down the stretch, but for now it looks like we have around 16 teams for 8 spots.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois

2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, Houston

3: West Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Arkansas

4: Florida State, Creighton, Oklahoma State, Purdue

5: Virginia, USC, Wisconsin, Colorado

6: Texas, BYU, Clemson, Oklahoma

7: Florida, Tennessee, Texas Tech, San Diego State

8: UCLA, Missouri, Oregon, Loyola Chicago

9: Maryland, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Rutgers

10: North Carolina, Connecticut, St. Bonaventure, LSU

11: VCU, Drake, Michigan State, Georgia Tech

12: (Wichita State/Xavier), (Colorado State/Seton Hall), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo

14: Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian, Eastern Washington

15: Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena, Grand Canyon

16: Texas State, Wagner, (Cleveland State/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: Boise State, Western Kentucky, SMU, Saint Louis

Next Four Out: Duke, Indiana, Memphis, Minnesota

Also Considered: Mississippi, Richmond, Utah State, St. Mary’s

Moving In: Seton Hall, Cleveland State

Moving Out: Boise State, Wright State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Big East: 5

Pac-12: 4

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

Mountain West: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 3/1/2021

A busy weekend leads to changes throughout the seed list. At the top, Illinois rises to the top line for the first time all year. Gonzaga, Michigan and Baylor are entrenched as 1 seeds but the fourth spot is very much up for grabs. Towards the bubble, teams like Virginia Tech and LSU are playing their way into some danger while Connecticut and Xavier got nice wins to give themselves some cushion.

1: Gonzaga, Michigan, Baylor, Illinois

2: Ohio State, Alabama, Iowa, West Virginia

3: Houston, Villanova, Kansas, Florida State

4: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Creighton, Purdue

5: Virginia, USC, Colorado, Texas

6: Oklahoma State, BYU, Oklahoma, Clemson

7: Florida, Tennessee, Texas Tech, San Diego State

8: UCLA, Missouri, Rutgers, Oregon

9: St. Bonaventure, Loyola Chicago, Maryland, Louisville

10: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, LSU

11: VCU, Boise State, Drake, Xavier

12: (Wichita State/Georgia Tech), (Michigan State/Colorado State), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Toledo, Winthrop

14: Wright State, Liberty, UNC Greensboro, Abilene Christian

15: Eastern Washington, Vermont, South Dakota State, Siena

16: Grand Canyon, Texas State, (Wagner/James Madison), (North Carolina A&T/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Richmond, Indiana, Duke

Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, SMU, Memphis, Minnesota

Also Considered: Saint Louis, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Stanford

Moving In: Georgia Tech, UNC Greensboro, Vermont, South Dakota State, Wagner

Moving Out: Seton Hall, Furman, UMBC, South Dakota, Bryant

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/27/2021

Richmond moves out of the field in favor of Xavier after their close lose at Saint Louis. The Spiders need to beat Saint Joe’s on Monday and then pick up a few wins in the A-10 tourney to have a shot at the field.

Drake picked up another win at Bradley yesterday and faces a rematch with the Braves in Peoria this afternoon. I think Drake should feel pretty good about their at-large chances if they win today, they could probably withstand a loss in Arch Madness.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Iowa

3: West Virginia, Houston, Florida State, Oklahoma

4: Creighton, Kansas, Texas, Tennessee

5: Purdue, Arkansas, Virginia, USC

6: Wisconsin, Clemson, Texas Tech, Colorado

7: Florida, Missouri, Rutgers, Oklahoma State

8: BYU, Loyola Chicago, LSU, San Diego State

9: Virginia Tech, UCLA, Oregon, Louisville

10: Maryland, North Carolina, VCU, Boise State

11: Drake, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State, Michigan State

12: (Connecticut/Colorado State), (Indiana/Xavier), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo

14: Furman, Abilene Christian, Wright State, Liberty

15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison

16: UMBC, Texas State, (Bryant/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Minnesota, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Richmond

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Duke, Western Kentucky, SMU

Also Considered: Stanford, Saint Louis, Memphis, Syracuse

Moving In: Xavier, Bryant

Moving Out: Richmond, Wagner

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/26/2021

A very busy few days on the bubble. Xavier took another questionable loss to Providence, while Minnesota took a disastrous one at home against Northwestern. Both teams have fallen out of my projected field to the “First Four Out” group now. The biggest winner on the bubble is undoubtedly Michigan State, who is back in the picture for the first time in a month after big wins over Ohio State and Illinois.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Iowa

3: West Virginia, Houston, Florida State, Oklahoma

4: Creighton, Kansas, Texas, Tennessee

5: USC, Arkansas, Virginia, Purdue

6: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Clemson, Colorado

7: Florida, Missouri, Rutgers, Oklahoma State

8: BYU, Loyola Chicago, LSU, Virginia Tech

9: San Diego State, UCLA, Oregon, Louisville

10: Maryland, North Carolina, VCU, Boise State

11: Drake, St. Bonaventure, Colorado State, Wichita State

12: (Michigan State/Connecticut), (Indiana/Richmond), Western Kentucky, Colgate

13: UC Santa Barbara, Belmont, Winthrop, Toledo

14: Furman, Abilene Christian, Wright State, Liberty

15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison

16: UMBC, Texas State, (Wagner/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Xavier, Minnesota, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Duke, Western Kentucky, SMU

Also Considered: Stanford, Memphis, Syracuse, Dayton

Moving In: Connecticut, Michigan State, Richmond, Furman

Moving Out: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Xavier, UNC Greensboro

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Pac-12: 4

Atlantic 10: 3

Big East: 3

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/24/2021

An interesting few days as a lot of teams I had left for dead in the bubble race appear to be coming back to life. This includes Georgia Tech, Michigan State and Duke. I still have all three teams outside the field but I think one or two of them will work their way in.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Iowa, Villanova

3: West Virginia, Houston, Florida State, Virginia

4: Oklahoma, Creighton, USC, Kansas

5: Texas, Tennessee, Purdue, Texas Tech

6: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Clemson, Florida

7: Missouri, Oklahoma State, BYU, Colorado

8: Rutgers, Loyola Chicago, LSU, Virginia Tech

9: North Carolina, UCLA, San Diego State, Louisville

10: Boise State, Maryland, Oregon, VCU

11: Drake, Minnesota, Xavier, Indiana

12: (Colorado State/Wichita State), (St. Bonaventure/Seton Hall), Western Kentucky, Belmont

13: Colgate, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Toledo

14: Abilene Christian, Wright State, UNC Greensboro, Liberty

15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison

16: UMBC, Texas State, (Wagner/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Connecticut, Richmond, Michigan State, Georgia Tech

Next Four Out: Western Kentucky, Mississippi, Duke, SMU

Also Considered: Stanford, Memphis, Syracuse, Dayton

Moving In: Seton Hall

Moving Out: Connecticut

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/22/2021

A busy weekend with plenty of intrigue on the bubble. North Carolina demolished Louisville, and they’ve roughly swapped places with the Tar Heels now looking pretty comfortable while Louisville is in some danger. Elsewhere on Tobacco Road, Duke is back in the conversation with a win over Virginia.

Updates will be around four times a week from now until conference tournaments begin.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Iowa, Villanova

3: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Houston, Florida State

4: Virginia, Kansas, Creighton, Texas Tech

5: Purdue, Tennessee, Missouri, USC

6: Texas, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Clemson

7: BYU, Virginia Tech, Florida, Oklahoma State

8: Colorado, Rutgers, Loyola Chicago, LSU

9: North Carolina, UCLA, San Diego State, Oregon

10: Boise State, Louisville, Maryland, Drake

11: Minnesota, Xavier, Indiana, VCU

12: (Colorado State/Wichita State), (St. Bonaventure/Connecticut), Western Kentucky, Belmont

13: Colgate, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Toledo

14: Abilene Christian, Wright State, UNC Greensboro, Liberty

15: Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Siena, James Madison

16: UMBC, Texas State, (Wagner/South Dakota), (Prairie View A&M/North Carolina A&T)

First Four Out: Richmond, Seton Hall, Western Kentucky, SMU

Next Four Out: Stanford, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Duke

Also Considered: Michigan State, Memphis, Saint Louis, Mississippi

Moving In: Connecticut, UMBC, James Madison, Wagner, North Carolina A&T

Moving Out: Seton Hall, Vermont, Northeastern, Bryant, Norfolk State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/20/2021

The biggest result of the last two days was Wichita State’s win over Houston. Wichita State’s profile is quite a bit better than I initially realized, they have a 2-2 record against both Q1 and Q2, no bad losses and a great win over Houston. Their efficiency numbers are pretty bad for a bubble team, but if they go 3-1 down the stretch (no small ask against a tricky schedule) I think they’ll make the field.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Iowa

3: Oklahoma, Houston, Virginia, West Virginia

4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Florida State, Texas

5: USC, Kansas, Creighton, Purdue

6: Wisconsin, Arkansas, Clemson, Missouri

7: Virginia Tech, BYU, Rutgers, Oklahoma State

8: Louisville, Colorado, LSU, Loyola Chicago

9: UCLA, Florida, VCU, Xavier

10: San Diego State, Minnesota, Oregon, Drake

11: Boise State, Indiana, Seton Hall, Colorado State

12: (North Carolina/Wichita State), (Maryland/St. Bonaventure), Western Kentucky, Belmont

13: Toledo, Winthrop, Colgate, UC Santa Barbara

14: Wright State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro

15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington

16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Stanford, SMU

Next Four Out: Memphis, Richmond, St. John’s, Utah State

Moving In: Wichita State

Moving Out: Connecticut

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/18/2021

The bubble picture is starting to clear up a bit. I would say that the teams on the 1 through 9 lines can feel pretty good about their tournament bids (>80% to make the field). Similarly, any team beyond the Next Four Out is probably <20% to make the tournament. That leaves 20 teams for 12 spots. While there will be a surprise or two, those 20 teams are the ones we can expect to see hanging out on the bubble on Selection Sunday.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Houston, Villanova

3: Oklahoma, Virginia, Iowa, West Virginia

4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Florida State, Texas

5: USC, Kansas, Wisconsin, Creighton

6: Purdue, Arkansas, Clemson, Rutgers

7: Missouri, Virginia Tech, Colorado, BYU

8: Oklahoma State, Louisville, LSU, Loyola Chicago

9: Florida, VCU, Xavier, UCLA

10: San Diego State, Minnesota, Drake, Indiana

11: Seton Hall, Boise State, Oregon, Colorado State

12: (North Carolina/Maryland), (St. Bonaventure/Connecticut), Western Kentucky, Belmont

13: Toledo, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate

14: UC Santa Barbara, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro

15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington

16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: Mississippi, Stanford, SMU, Saint Louis

Next Four Out: Utah State, Memphis, Richmond, Wichita State

Moving In: Connecticut

Moving Out: Utah State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Big East: 5

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 3

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/15/2021

The committee’s reveal of their top 16 seeds on Saturday contained a few surprises. Oklahoma and Texas Tech made their list, while I had Wisconsin and USC in instead. Oklahoma followed that up with a huge win at West Virginia and so they rise from a 5 to a 3 seed in this update.

The weekend was surprisingly calm on the bubble with no teams moving in or out of the field. The biggest games were probably in Des Moines where Loyola and Drake split the two game series, keeping both their at-large hopes alive.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Houston, Virginia

3: Villanova, Oklahoma, Iowa, West Virginia

4: Texas Tech, Tennessee, Texas, USC

5: Florida State, Kansas, Wisconsin, Missouri

6: Creighton, Purdue, Clemson, Rutgers

7: Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Colorado, BYU

8: Florida, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Louisville

9: Loyola Chicago, LSU, Minnesota, UCLA

10: San Diego State, VCU, Drake, Oregon

11: Maryland, Seton Hall, Colorado State, North Carolina

12: (Indiana/Boise State), (St. Bonaventure/Utah State), Western Kentucky, Belmont

13: Toledo, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate

14: UC Santa Barbara, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian, UNC Greensboro

15: Liberty, South Dakota, Vermont, Eastern Washington

16: Siena, Bryant, (Texas State/Northeastern), (Norfolk State/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, SMU, Saint Louis

Next Four Out: Richmond, Memphis, Stanford, St. John’s

Moving In: Norfolk State, UNC Greensboro, South Dakota

Moving Out: Morgan State, Furman, South Dakota State

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 4

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2

Bracketology 2/12/2021

Tomorrow afternoon the committee will do their annual reveal of their top 16 teams. The two teams I am most interested to see them place are probably Houston and Missouri. Houston is a classic example of a team from a medium sized league running up a great record, they remind me a bit of 2013 New Mexico. Missouri’s team sheet looks stellar but their predictive metrics are in line with a bubble team, and their NET of 34 roughly splits the difference between the two.

1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State

2: Illinois, Alabama, Villanova, Virginia

3: Houston, West Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin

4: USC, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas

5: Kansas, Purdue, Colorado, Oklahoma

6: Texas Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Rutgers

7: Xavier, Virginia Tech, Creighton, BYU

8: Minnesota, Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma State

9: Louisville, Loyola Chicago, UCLA, San Diego State

10: Drake, North Carolina, Indiana, VCU

11: St. Bonaventure, LSU, Seton Hall, Colorado State

12: (Oregon/Boise State), (Maryland/Utah State), Toledo, Western Kentucky

13: Belmont, Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate

14: UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota State, Grand Canyon, Abilene Christian

15: Furman, Liberty, Vermont, Siena

16: Bryant, Texas State, (Southern Utah/Northeastern), (Morgan State/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: SMU, Richmond, Penn State, Connecticut

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Memphis, Stanford, St. John’s

Moving In: Maryland, Utah State

Moving Out: Connecticut, Richmond

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 6

SEC: 6

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

Mountain West: 4

Atlantic 10: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

West Coast: 2