College Football Picks Week 12 2023
Last week was amazing. I cashed my +1000 ticket on New Mexico State to make the CUSA title game as they knocked off Western Kentucky to clinch second place in the conference. Those 20 units could be the difference between a winning season and a losing one for me. My bets last week did fine as well, with Purdue and Coastal Carolina covering easily.
Preseason: +10.74 units
Week 0: +0.82 units
Week 1: -7.37 units
Week 2: -2.83 units
Week 3: -0.59 units
Week 4: -5.31 units
Week 5: +6.21 units
Week 6: -0.18 units
Week 7: +0.55 units
Week 8: -5.09 units
Week 9: -1.1 units
Week 10: +6.09 units
Week 11: +2.33 units
Total: +4.27 units
Coastal Carolina @ Army (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Coastal Carolina has been one of my money teams recently- the Chanticleers have rattled off 5 wins in a row after a 2-3 start. I really like them here- they’ve proven to be more than injured QB Grayson McCall as many of those wins have come since his injury. Army has some awful losses to ULM and UMass and should be a double digit underdog here.
Coastal Carolina -5.5 -110 (4 units)
New Mexico @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
I need to preface this by noting that New Mexico is a horrible football team. However, I’m concerned with what I’ve seen recently from Fresno State and don’t think they should be a 24 point favorite against any FBS team. They’ve been worse than their record all year- they were beneficiaries of close game luck all year and then felt the brunt of it in a blowout loss to San Jose State. They couldn’t beat awful Eastern Washington or Nevada teams by 24 so I don’t think they can blowout New Mexico.
New Mexico +24 -110 (3 units)
Hawaii @ Wyoming (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
Hawaii pulled off one of the most shocking results of the season last week with a home win over Air Force. I’m backing the Rainbow Warriors here- head coach Timmy Chang took over the worst situation in FBS but has made something out of it. Wyoming is one of the better teams in the Mountain West but Hawaii now has a pulse and this line is priced as if they don’t.
Hawaii +15.5 -110 (3 units)
Hawaii ML +455 (1 unit)
Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Western Kentucky all year and will continue to do so here. They thankfully lost to New Mexico State last week and have not been able to enforce their talent advantage on the rest of Conference USA. Sam Houston State has been better than their record all year and has a shot at their biggest win as an FBS program here.
Sam Houston State +13.5 -110 (2 units)
Sam Houston State ML +400 (1 unit)
Hawaii ML/Sam Houston State ML +2675 (0.1 units)
Duke @ Virginia (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
Duke has not been the same team since Riley Leonard got hurt a few weeks ago. Virginia, on the other hand, has seen a midseason renaissance. I was worried the Cavaliers might not win an FBS game a few weeks ago, but I now think they’ve escaped the bottom of the ACC. They nearly knocked off Louisville on the road last week and can definitely win this game.
Virginia +4 -110 (2 units)
Central Michigan @ Ohio (Wednesday, 6 PM Central)
Central Michigan might be the most overrated team in the country, this is the third week in a row I’ve bet against them. Ohio’s season has flown under the radar since their loss to Miami (OH) knocked them out of serious MAC contention, but their September win over Iowa State only looks more impressive as time passes. I like the Bobcats to win in a rout.
Ohio -8.5 -110 (2 units)
Washington vs. Oregon State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
This is the best game of the weekend and Oregon State has a chance for their biggest win since they knocked off #1 USC in 2008. I think the Beavers should be favored here- Washington has been playing at a below top 25 level since their win over Oregon, while Beavers QB DJ Uiagalelei has been playing like the 5 star we knew he could be the last few weeks.
Oregon State +1 -110 (1 unit)
Utah vs. Arizona (Saturday, 1:30 PM Central)
Arizona has been one of my most profitable teams all year and I’m going back to them here. Utah has taken some blowout losses while the Wildcats have been remarkably consistent all year. Arizona QB Noah Fifita will be the best player on the field and the ‘Cats have an outside chance at the Pac-12 championship.
Arizona +1 -110 (1 unit)
Louisville is reasonably likely to face Florida State in the ACC title game. They can get there with a win against Miami this weekend (they’re a 1 point favorite) or a UNC loss to either Clemson (where UNC is a touchdown underdog) or NC State. I think the Cardinals would have a decent chance to beat Florida State in a potential matchup- FSU has fallen outside the top 10 of my ratings and Louisville has a much better defense than you realize.
Louisville to win the ACC +300 (2 units)